Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter over the Continental United States and Its Possible Linkage with Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract

The mechanism for the paradox of global warming and successive cold winters in mid-latitudes remains controversial. In this study, the connection between Arctic sea ice (ASI) loss and frequent cold air outbreaks in eastern Continental United States (CONUS) is explored. Two distinct periods of high and low ASI (hereafter high- and low-ice phases) are identified for comparative study. It is demonstrated that cold air outbreaks occur more frequently during the low-ice phase compared to that during the high-ice phase. The polar vortex is weakened and shifted southward during the low-ice phase. Correspondingly, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which represents the mid-tropospheric circulation, shows a clear negative Arctic Oscillation-like pattern in the low-ice phase. Specifically, positive GPH anomalies in the Arctic region with two centers, respectively located over Greenland and the Barents Sea, significantly weaken the low-pressure system centered around the Baffin Island, and enhance Ural blocking in the low-ice phase. Meanwhile, the high ridge extending from Alaska to the west coast of North America further intensifies, while the low trough over eastern CONUS deepens. As a result, the atmospheric circulation in North America becomes more conductive to frigid Arctic air outbreaks. It is concluded that the ASI loss contributes to more cold air outbreaks in winter in eastern CONUS through the polar vortex weakening with southward displacement of the polar vortex edge, which lead to the weakening of the meridional potential vorticity gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitude and thus are conducive to the strengthening and long-term maintenance of the blocking high.