Melamchi Water Supply Project Research Articles

Interface between Climate Change and National Security Threat

Climate change has emerged as an existential threat to the planet and humanity. It is fueling natural disasters, migration, energy, and health and food crises across the globe. Flood, sea-level rise, intense wildfire, heat wave, hurricanes, precipitation are threatening both civilian lives and vital infrastructure. Put together, they all have a potential to create security threats, and no country is immune from it. In June 2022, much of Pakistan was inundated by heavier than usual monsoon rain. More than 1,700 people perished and properties worth billions were destroyed in the disaster, which also triggered food and energy crises in its wake. Likewise, on June 15, 2021, Melamchi Bazar of Sindupalchok district in Nepal was ravaged by a flash flood that claimed five lives — dozens of people are still missing. It damaged several private and public properties, and damaged the infrastructure of the Melamchi Water Supply Project (Annapurna Express 2022). The above incidents show the extent of vulnerability posed by climate change-related disasters on human lives and settlements. With this context in place, this essay tries to explore the new risks posed by the effects of climate change to Nepal’s security landscape, as well as the preparations made so far to deal with possible crises. It will offer some policy recommendations.

WASTEWATER AND BIOGAS PRODUCTION IN KATHMANDU VALLEY, NEPAL: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Kathmandu valley, the country s most urbanized city, is expected to deal with an estimated 200 million liters per day (MLD) of wastewater at the completion of the Melamchi Water Supply Project. In this paper, we review the history, present, and future prospects of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) as well as estimate the total biogas potential of the expected wastewater through anaerobic digestion using the chemical oxygen demand (COD) mass balance approach. The total biogas potential from the expected 200 MLD wastewater with an average COD concentration of 1000 225 mg/L, was estimated to be 23105 5185Nm3/day which is equivalent to a total electricity potential of 3.35 0.76 megawatt (MW). Thus produced bioenergy can be utilized to supply the energy demand of the treatment plants, support the plants to be less dependent on the grid energy-thereby helping to achieve energy self-sufficiency, achieve cleaner urban rivers, and possibly also reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the plants. This study also encourages timely construction and completion of energy self-sufficient treatment plants around the country.

Analyzing Willingness to Pay for Improved Tap Water Quality: A Case of Kathmandu Valley of Nepal

Solving chronic drinking water shortage problem of Kathmandu Valley has been finally achieved after arduous two decades of effort of Melamchi Water supply project. At this moment, though it is futile to ask economic worthiness of this national pride project but there is still ample room to investigate ability and willingness to shoulder such lumpy financial burden by ultimate beneficiaries of potable water in Kathmandu valley. Accordingly, this paper intends to measure and investigate the factors affecting household’s willingness to pay for improved water supply. The study enumerated 4941 households falling under Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL) service areas during 2015 to 2016 period. It incorporated contingency valuation (CV) tools to estimate willingness to pay by residents. We applied ordinal logistic regression model to analyze the major determinants of WTP for improved water supply system and measured different elasticity on the base of simple OLS using STATA version 12. The findings show that a third of households are headed by females, while the average family size and families per building are 5.2 and 9.6 persons respectively; all above national average. The reported major source of water by residents in the study area are Kathmandu Upattyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL) (36%), jar water (20%), tanker (15%); and well/Kuwa and handpump (20%); while total expenditure in Nepalese Rupees (NRs) is 1314 per household per month. The willingness to pay for KUKL’s improved water by the household is NRs 404, just over 2.5 times the mean current KUKL tariff (NRs. 155) per month. The ordinal logistic regression result shows household current quantity of water utilization, price of jar water, income and perceived water quality and waterborne diseases as major determinants of WTP for improved water supply. The odds of paying higher WTP for improved water supply are significantly positive for aforementioned factors except the price of jar (which affects negatively). The income inelastic (<1) demand for KUKL’s water demand signifies water as basic necessity commodity and proportion of income spent is small. The negative signs of coefficients of cross elasticity of KUKL water demand with respect to prices of jar water and tanker supplied water indicates that jar water and tanker water as strong substitutes of KUKL supply system. The study concluded that the low WTP for improved KUKL’s water supply in comparison to current total water expenditure is ‘wait and see’ signal for KUKL authorities and government. The study infers that KUKL needs to win confidence of its consumers in terms of sufficiency, regularity and quality before scaling up water tariffs.

Promoting equitable water distribution system from Melamchi Water Supply Project in Kathmandu Valley

Abstract The effective and efficient supply of drinking water resources are key to its long-term use and access. In recent decades, the population of Kathmandu Valley has exploded owing to several factors. The water supply system here has also undergone remarkable changes and efforts have been made to enhance its equitable distribution. The major effort, of course, is the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP). As the project approaches completion of its first phase, we would like to point out several key issues for the water distribution system here and express our opinions on promoting equitable water distribution. For this we conducted a thorough literature review and found that improvement in the water distribution network and water tariff in the valley, along with promotion of alternative mitigation options, are the focal issues for promoting an equitable water distribution system in Kathmandu Valley.

Forecasting water demand under climate change using artificial neural network: a case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Abstract With a water demand of 370 MLD, Kathmandu Valley is currently facing a water shortage of 260 MLD. The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) is an interbasin project aimed at diverting 510 MLD of water in three phases (170 MLD in each phase). Phase I of the project was expected to complete by 2018. Water demand forecasting is the first and important activity in managing water supply. Using the socio-economic factors of number of connections, water tariff and ratio of population to number of university students and climatic factor of annual rainfall, artificial neural network (ANN) was used to predict the water demand of Kathmandu Valley until the year 2040. The analysis suggests that, even after the completion of Phase I of MWSP, the water scarcity in the valley will be 160 MLD in 2020. Therefore, Phase II of MWSP should be completed within 2025 and Phase III should be completed by 2040. The result of this study aids KUKL for better management of the water system. In addition, this research can help in decision making to construct the second and third phase for MWSP, the construction date of which still has not been decided.

Dynamics of Financing, Governance and Socioeconomic Benefits of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal: Lessons Learnt

This study assesses the dynamics of multi-sectorial benefits of a top-flagship project which bears tangible benefits of the project and benefits earned by the beneficiaries through nonrelated water pricing mechanism. The paper is based on content analysis and consultation with the stakeholders concerned and beneficiaries. The result reveals huge tangible benefits from the project; however, poor project governance and institutional weakness in managing the project all contributed to delaying the project by nearly 15 years than its scheduled completion date. This has resulted loses of over tens of millions USD annually only due to missing opportunity to obtain water revenue of transferred water, leaving aside other indirect benefits of water scarce urban households of Kathmandu. The lessons learnt from this project provide valuable information and insight for addressing governances and institutional factors in infrastructural project development and project execution in Nepal and also in other developing countries in the region.

Melamchi water supply project: potential to replenish Kathmandu's groundwater status for dry season access

Abstract Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL) currently uses 35 surface and 57 groundwater sources to supply water for Nepal's capital, Kathmandu. It is necessary to understand if the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) can assist lean period water supply by indirectly increasing groundwater storage, through diverting excess water supply to groundwater recharge zones. The current study analyzed long-term groundwater depletion to assess available groundwater storage, followed by assessment of groundwater balance for the Kathmandu Valley. Results show that total groundwater extraction for Kathmandu was 69.44 million cubic meters (MCM) and drawdown of the groundwater surface was 15–20 m since the construction of wells in 1984/85, indicating substantial overexploitation. Results indicate that the ongoing unmet demand of 170 MCM/year can be easily satisfied if groundwater storage is recharged effectively, as underground water storage potential is 246 MCM/year due to a groundwater depletion rate of 2–10 m. From results, it is evident that that the timely implementation of the MWSP can help ease ongoing water stress and aid in reversing the damage caused to groundwater storage. In the long run, MWSP can supply water and recharge groundwater during monsoon periods, thus improving the quality of life and socio-economic status in Kathmandu.

Implications of the Melamchi water supply project for the Kathmandu Valley groundwater system

Abstract To meet the demand deficit in Kathmandu Valley, the Government of Nepal has planned to supply an additional 510 million liters per day (mld) of water by implementing the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in the near future. In this study, we aim to assess the spatial distribution of groundwater availability and pumping under five scenarios for before and after the implementation of the MWSP using a numerical groundwater flow model. The data on water demand, supply infrastructure, changes in hydraulic head, groundwater pumping rates, and aquifer characteristics were analyzed. Results showed that groundwater pumping from individual wells ranges from 0.0018 to 2.8 mld and the average hydraulic head declined from 2.57 m below ground level (bgl) (0.23 m/year) to 21.58 m bgl (1.96 m/year). Model simulations showed that changes in average hydraulic head ranged from +2.83 m to +5.48 m at various stages of the MWSP implementation, and −2.97 m for increased pumping rates with no implementation of the MWSP. Regulation in pumping such as monetary instruments (groundwater pricing) on the use of groundwater along with appropriate metering and monitoring of pumping amounts depending on the availability of new and existing public water supply could be interventions in the near future.

Dreaming of pipes: Kathmandu’s long-delayed Melamchi Water Supply Project

For a generation, people in Kathmandu have been waiting for a large drinking water diversion project to relieve them of a severe water shortage. Recounting the history of the Melamchi Water Supply Project through interviews, project documentation, and media reports, this article argues that an analysis of unfinished infrastructure has to take into account the recalcitrance of more-than-human forms, in particular matter like water and rock, as well as institutions like government ministries and international donor agencies. In the case of Melamchi, the lack of control over both matter and such institutional actors delayed the completion of the project – as is the case with a number of large-scale hydropower projects in the country. Despite this obvious inability to complete infrastructures, elites have built the promise of a prosperous future for Nepal on its water resources and the export of electricity. By conceptualizing Melamchi as an infrastructural meshwork in Ingold’s understanding and Nepal as an unfinished hydraulic state, I aim to contribute to the growing literature complicating Wittfogel’s idea of the hydrosocial.

Water Price Optimization after the Melamchi Water Supply Project: Ensuring Affordability and Equitability for Consumer’s Water Use and Sustainability for Utilities

Sustainability of water supply services has been central to the main water supply agenda globally. In order to promote affordable, equitable, and sustainable water supply, this paper proposed a method to set the piped water price inside Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) is currently under construction inside the valley to tide over the water deficit. Domestic water use and expenditure data were obtained from a household survey of 1500 households. Post-MWSP were developed based upon per capita water use and water price. Equity and affordability were evaluated by comparing the ratio of water expenditure to total expenditure of households (expenditure ratio: ER) in each service area. The expenditure for piped water service and alternate water sources was taken into account to calculate the total water expenditure. Sustainability was measured as the ratio of operation and maintenance cost to the total revenue of the utility (Working ratio: WR). The results show that an increase in water price by approximately 54% over the current price is necessary to meet operation and maintenance costs, assuming the WR to be 0.7. Approximately 30% increase in water use (a minimum of 80 LPCD) can be maintained post MWSP. However, water use of 135 LPCD increased the ER by more than 1%, which was the threshold of water affordability and may cause ground water stress.

Evaluation of Water Security in Kathmandu Valley before and after Water Transfer from another Basin

Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL) has planned to harness water from outside the valley from Melamchi as an inter-basin project to supply water inside the ring road (core valley area) of the Kathmandu Valley (KV). The project, called the “Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP)”, is expected to have its first phase completed by the end of September 2018 and its second phase completed by the end of 2023 to supply 170 MLD (million liters a day) through the first phase and an additional 340 MLD through the second phase. The area has recently faced a severe water deficit and KUKL’s existing infrastructure has had a limited capability, supplying only 19% of the water that is demanded in its service areas during the dry season and 31% during the wet season. In this context, this study aims to assess the temporal trends and spatial distribution of household water security index (WSI), defined as a ratio of supply to demand for domestic water use for basic human water requirements (50 L per capita per day (lpcd)) and economic growth (135 lpcd) as demand in pre- and post-MWSP scenarios. For this purpose, data on water demand and supply with infrastructure were used to map the spatial distribution of WSI and per capita water supply using ArcMap. Results show a severe water insecurity condition in the year 2017 in all KUKL service areas (SAs), which is likely to improve after completion of the MWSP. It is likely that recent distribution network and strategies may lead to inequality in water distribution within the SAs. This can possibly be addressed by expanding existing distribution networks and redistributing potable water, which can serve an additional 1.21 million people in the area. Service providers may have to develop strategies to strengthen a set of measures including improving water supply infrastructures, optimizing water loss, harnessing additional water from hills, and managing water within and outside the KUKL SAs in the long run to cover the entire KV.

Integrated urban water management scenario modeling for sustainable water governance in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

The goal of ensuring water availability and sustainable management of water for all by 2030 is one of the top priorities of the UN-SDGs. The fragile institutional capabilities induce the transitioning towards the sustainable urban water paradigm to accommodate the complexities and uncertainties. This research methodically draws sustainable water management strategies to achieve water security after a critical literature review, trends and policy analysis, and scenario modeling of the study area. First, research systematically illustrated the analysis of unmet water demand and coverage during the study period (2015–2030) and evaluated the impact of external factors such as population growth, living standard, and climate change on the current water system of the Kathmandu Valley. The results showed that future water demand is likely to reach 765 MLD by the year 2030 from the estimated current demand of 388.1 MLD. Also, external factors will increase the pressure on the current water supply–demand systems, and hence exacerbate the water stress but result showed the negligible impact of climate change during the study period. The research explored the significance of “Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP)” and found that the effective implementation of MWSP will decrease the unmet water demand by 56–66% in the valley. In the second part, comparative analysis of different management strategies under four future scenarios (optimistic, moderate I and II and business-as-usual) were carried out. The comparative analysis revealed that the proposed optimal management strategy (under optimistic scenario) would lead to achieving 100% of water demand coverage by year 2027.

Dynamics of Domestic Water Consumption in the Urban Area of the Kathmandu Valley: Situation Analysis Pre and Post 2015 Gorkha Earthquake

Information regarding domestic water consumption is vital, as the Kathmandu Valley will soon be implementing the Melamchi Water Supply Project; however, updated information on the current situation after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake (GEQ) is still lacking. We investigated the dynamics of domestic water consumption pre- and post-GEQ. The piped water supply was short, and consumption varied widely across the Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL) branches and altitude. The reduction in piped, ground, and jar water consumption and the increase in tanker water consumption post-GEQ appeared to be due to the impact of the GEQ. However, the impact did not appear to be prominent on per capita water consumption, although it was reduced from 117 to 99 L post-GEQ. Piped, ground, and tanker water use were associated with an increase and jar water use was associated with a decrease in water consumption. Despite improvements in quantity, inequality in water consumption and inequity in affordability across wealth status was well established. This study suggests to KUKL the areas of priority where improvements to supply are required, and recommends an emphasis on resuming performance. Policy planners should consider the existing inequity in affordability, which is a major issue in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Model-based estimation of land subsidence in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

ABSTRACTThis study is the first to assess land subsidence in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Land subsidence simulations were based on a fully calibrated groundwater (GW) flow model developed using a coupled surface–subsurface modelling system. Subsidence is predicted to occur as a result of deep aquifer compaction due to excessive GW abstraction. The north and north-east areas at the periphery of the GW basin are hotspots for this subsidence. The estimated subsidence is most sensitive to changes in land cover within the recharge areas. The model shows the Melamchi water supply project assists in the control of subsidence to some extent. In the absence of land subsidence measurements, this paper highlights the location and the potential levels of the subsidence hazard which will be useful for hazard prevention management. Additionally, this work provides a basis to design field investigations, monitoring networks for land subsidence and upgrading the present GW monitoring network. Although the study has presented a preliminary analysis, a more comprehensive model inclusive of clay subsidence is required to address the subsidence vulnerability of the central densely populated core of the valley, which reflects the need for a comprehensive database of the hydrogeology in the valley.

Impacts of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Socio-Economic Development of Sindhupalchowak District of Nepal

The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) is considered to have been the most viable long-term alternative to ease the chronic water shortage situation within the Kathmandu Valley. The project has launched the separate project 'Social Upliftment Project' to improve the quality of life of community people. Besides that the project has divided its support field as buffer zone, health, education, income generation and rural electrification etc. to make the program more effective. So, the study aim is to explore the impact of Melamchi Water Supply Project in socio-economic status of local people of study areas. The study was conducted among the 8 VDCs of Sindhupalchowak district. Total, 404 respondents were selected randomly. The study found that MWSP had contributed in the field of agriculture, improving economic status of community people, education, infrastructure development and off-seasonal vegetable farming for income generating activities. There was a significant difference between the respondents of different VDCs regarding the contribution of MWSP. The Social Upliftment Program of MWSP should be continued and needed to extend in other hard-to-reach areas of district.

The Status of Domestic Water Demand: Supply Deficit in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 targets access to water and sanitation for all people in the next 15 years. However, for developing countries such as Nepal, it is more challenging to achieve this goal given its poor infrastructure and high population growth. To assess the water crisis in the most developed and populated area of Nepal, the Kathmandu Valley, we estimated available water resources and domestic water demand in the valley. We estimated a supply deficit of 102 million liters per day (MLD) in 2016, after completion of the first phase of the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP). If the MWSP is completed within the specified timeframe, and sufficient treatment and distribution infrastructure is developed, then there would be no water deficit by 2023–2025. This indicates that the MWSP will make a significant contribution to the valley’s water security. However, emphasis must be given to utilizing all of the water available from the MWSP by developing sufficient water treatment and distribution infrastructure. Alternate mitigation options, such as planning land use for potential recharge, introducing micro- to macro-level rainwater harvesting structures, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, and water demand-side management, would also be helpful.

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6–18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Downstream Impacts of the Melamchi Inter-Basin Water Transfer Plan (MIWTP) Under Current and Future Climate Change Projections

The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) is designed to minimize the shortage of drinking water in the Kathmandu valley. Although the project was supposed to be completed by 2008, due to various problems, it is still difficult to forecast the exact date of completion. This paper quantifies the downstream effects of diverting water from the Melamchi (Stage-I), Yangri (Stage-II) and Larke (Stage-III) rivers under current as well as future climate scenarios. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used in the analysis. Result shows that in the Stage-I water transfer plan, average inflow reduction in the immediate downstream sub-basin in the dry and wet seasons are 36% and 7% respectively, where as in Stage-II the inflow reductions are 38% for the dry season and 8% for the wet season. In Stage-III, inflow reductions are 38% in the dry season and 7% in the wet season.The impact of the water transfer schemes on various changes in water management within the Melamchi River irrigation command area was also tested. BUDGET (soil, water and salt balance) model was used to quantify crop water requirement of Melamchi River command area when the irrigated area is increased and the cropping pattern is changed. Simulation results of crop water requirement in intensive water use conditions show that present Melamchi River command area can be increased by 2.2 times under current climate projection, whereas the area can be increased 1.4 times in 2030s and by 2.0 times in 2050s.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7199 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.23-29

Environmental management plan (EMP) for Melamchi water supply project, Nepal

More than 1.5 million people live in the Kathmandu valley. The valley is facing an extreme shortage of water supply. At the same time the demand is escalating rapidly. To address this issue of scarcity of water, the government of Nepal has proposed a project of inter-basin transfer of water from Melamchi River located 40 km north-east of the Kathmandu valley. The project will cover two districts and three municipalities and will potentially have significant impacts on the environment. In accordance with the Environmental Protection Regulation of Nepal (1997), the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) has undergone an EIA during the feasibility study stage of the proposed project. The recommendations contained in the EIA were integrated into the project design for implementation in 2006. This paper summarizes the background of MWSP, the environmental concerns described in the EIA and the status of Environmental Management Plan (EMP) developed to address environmental compliance and other issues involving participation and support of the local people. This paper also provides some lessons to learn on the modalities of addressing the demands and grievances of the local people concerning environmental management.

An economic reappraisal of the Melamchi water supply project - Kathmandu, Nepal

This paper examines whether the benefits of the Melamchi water supply project in Nepal are likely to exceed its costs, assuming that high-quality municipal water services can be delivered to households and firms in the urbanized part of the Kathmandu Valley. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of the net present value and economic internal rate of return calculations to a wide range of assumptions and input parameters. We find that extreme assumptions are not required to generate large differences in economic feasibility; quite plausible differences in the values of some key parameters can lead to large differences in the economic attractiveness of the project. The results reveal that the three most important influences on net present value and economic internal rate of return are: (i) the discount rate and discounting procedure; (ii) the magnitude of monthly benefits for households connected to the new water system; and (iii) the annual growth rate in monthly benefits of connected households after the project comes on line. Our contribution lies in illustrating, with an actual case study in a developing country, the degree to which cost-benefit calculations of large infrastructure projects are influenced by key economic modeling assumptions and input parameters.