Median Voter Research Articles

Ideological cross-pressures or random error? An analysis of spatially inconsistent voting in the US House and US Senate

ABSTRACT Theoretical and empirical models of congressional voting assume that legislators vote with the sole purpose to move policy closer to their ideologically ideal point. While NOMINATE correctly classifies most votes cast by members of Congress, a significant number of votes are misclassified and coded as spatial error. The literature on congressional voting assumes this error to be random and idiosyncratic across members. We argue that spatial errors are systematic across members, with spatial error being more likely on roll-call votes tackling salient policy issues and among members representing constituencies with greater ideological divergence between the median voter and the member's primary election constituency. Using Aldrich-McKelvey scaling to place legislators and constituencies in the same ideological space, we find support for our theory. We attribute this finding to the electoral uncertainty faced by members of both the House and Senate representing constituencies with greater ideological divergence between these key electoral principals.

The rhetoric of closed borders: Quotas, lax enforcement and illegal immigration

Governments do not always enforce their laws, even when they have the means of doing so, and lax enforcement is common in the domain of immigration policy. To explain this paradox we develop a political agency model where gains from migration are unevenly distributed, and an elected government chooses both quotas and their enforcement. We show that distributional concerns can have perverse effects on migration policy since a utilitarian government may set a quota to appease the electorate, but then strategically under-invest in its enforcement. Under-investment is more likely, the larger the preference gap between median and average voter, and the higher the likelihood of a populist challenger gaining office. Our analysis also indicates that redistributive taxation reducing the share of enforcement cost borne by the median voter exacerbates the problem, whereas a compensatory tax rebate financed through a tax on profits from migration alleviates the conflict of interest, thus reducing illegal immigration.

Vox Populi, Vox Dei? Tacit Collusion in Politics

We study competition between political parties in repeated elections with probabilistic voting, allowing a multidimensional policy space and multiple political parties. This model entails multiple equilibria. When parties hold different opinions on some policy, they may take different policy positions that do not coincide with the median voter’s preferred policy platform but converge towards it. In contrast, when parties have a mutual understanding on a particular policy, their policy positions may converge (on some dimension) but not to the median voter’s preferred policy. Parties may collude with one another and take a position that differs from what the median voter prefers, despite political competition. Collusion may collapse, for instance, after the entry of a new political party. We substantiate the theoretical arguments with descriptive evidence using Swedish survey data on politicians and voters, which suggests that there is competition on some dimensions and collusion on others.

Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

The relationship between the degree of inequality and the demand for redistribution has been a central question in political science and political economy. The famous median-voter model predicts that higher inequality, reflected in a growing gap between the income of the average and the median voter, should lead to increased demand for redistribution, as policymakers cater to the median voter’s preferences (Meltzer and Richard, 1981). Yet, using data from OECD countries, Kenworthy and McCall (2008) show that, despite increases in inequality in those countries, there was no corresponding increase in demand for redistribution. Part of the explanation of this puzzle lies in the realization that it is not only (or even mainly) reality, but perceptions that shape support for policy. This article will explore recent evidence using large-scale social economics surveys and experiments that sheds lights on beliefs about inequality, social mobility, diversity and immigration, social position, and understanding of how policies work.

On Trade, Distributional Conflict, and Endogenous Regime Change

Can we expect shocks in trade openness to affect the quality of the domestic political process, and in what way? Isolating cross-country heterogeneity in the distributional effects of trade shocks for different relative factor endowments as a critical element for theory development, the paper tackles the puzzle by formally developing and solving a new probabilistic model to link the distributional effects of shocks to endogenous institutional change via induced conflict between a capital-intensive and a labour-intensive coalition. The model of distributional conflict combines a political selection stage to select the rate of income redistribution by majority voting and a constitutional conflict stage among factor-intensive coalitions whose steady state outcome determines the level of institutional inequality assigning the “rules“ of political selection. The former is modelled via a canonical weighted median voter setup with the (infinitely many) weights-distributions induced by the value of the steady state outcome of the constitutional conflict stage, while the latter is modelled as a Tullock contest with an endogenous contest success function and the heterogeneous coalition prizes equalling the expected value of the contest to each coalition as a function of the coalitions' efforts. Closed form solutions are derived for (i) the expected outcome of distributional conflict in terms of institutional quality and (ii) the intensity of conflict. Via comparative static analysis based on the Stolper Samuelson theorem in Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory, it is formally shown that positive shocks in trade openness always induce higher institutional inequality irrespective of heterogeneity in the underlying distributional effects, but that the expected mechanisms driving the drop in quality differ across capital-abundant and labour-abundant countries.

Political Competition with Endogenous Party Formation and Citizen Activists

The paper studies the eect of endogenous party formation on platform choice in plurality elections. Policy-motivated citizens can form parties in order to share an exogenous cost of running in the general election and nominate a presidential candidate in primary elections. Thus, parties allow like-minded citizens to coordinate their political behavior in order to improve the policy outcome. The paper concentrates on political equilibria with two active parties which exist for all levels of membership cost and electoral uncertainty. In contrast to the citizen candidate model (Besley and Coate 1997) and the classical median voter model (Downs 1957), there can neither be full convergence nor extreme polarization of party platforms in equilibrium. Crucially, allowing for endogenous party formation eliminates the extreme multiplicity of equilibria in the citizen candidate model. This insight is provided most clearly in the benchmark case of full electoral certainty, where a unique political equilibrium with positive platform distance exists.

The Political Economy of Open Borders: Theory and Evidence on the role of Electoral Rules

Institutions matter for the political choice of policies, and hence the consideration of the median voter's preferences should not be considered sufficient. We study theoretically and empirically how different electoral systems affect the level of openness of a country or city, zooming on the labor market as the main source of heterogeneous economic preferences towards immigration. The general result is that a polity is more open to immigration the less likely it is that policy making can be supported by a plurality of voters who do not constitute the absolute majority. There is evidence for this result at all levels in terms of correlations, and we establish causality via regression discontinuity design for the Italian case.

The Electoral Success of the Left in Latin America: Is There Any Room for Spatial Models of Voting?

Why have moderate electorates elected and reelected leftist governments in Latin America over the last twenty years? Scholars who rely on the classic Downsian logic of the median voter theorem have observed a process of ideological moderation among the most salient left-wing parties in the region. However, there have been no systematic attempts to evaluate the moderation thesis at the comparative level, either across Latin America or within cases over time. This article uses a directional model in the spatial modeling tradition to argue that the success of the left rests on the provision of clear leftist programmatic cues to voters. Data coming from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems for five Latin American countries during 1994 and 2014 show that left-wing parties won on left-wing platforms across the region, while an in-depth study on Brazilian elections reveals that leftist voters of the Workers’ Party in 2002 were driven by programmatic cues that largely disappeared during the 2010 elections.

Examining the Impact of Electoral Competition and Endogenous Lobby Formation on Equilibrium Policy Platforms

Abstract This paper formulates a mathematical model that combines the dynamics of interest group formation with electoral politics, involving office-seeking and corrupt political candidates and voting population with well-defined policy as well as ideological preferences. The analysis provides several interesting insights into the factors affecting lobby membership, free-riding incentives of citizen-voters and aggregate monetary donations garnered by lobby groups. Besides this, the paper also explores the impact of the formation of distinct lobby groups, the presence of swing voters and the corrupt practices or financial embezzlement on the equilibrium policy choice of electoral contenders. The findings reveal that more honest spending of campaign donations by electoral contenders reduces both the size of the lobby (or membership) as well as aggregate campaign contributions in equilibrium. In contrast, a rise in the fixed cost of organization is found to augment lobby membership along with the total amount of campaign contributions. In addition, a reduction in the level of electoral uncertainty as well as a rise in the ideological or swing voter density is found to increase the effectiveness of campaign contributions in raising an electoral candidate’s perceived popularity and, therefore, a smaller lobby group with lower aggregate donations is deemed as sufficient in influencing electoral outcomes. Moreover, the results indicate that a lower utility difference derived by the citizen-voters when comparing the two electoral candidate’s policy choices translates into smaller dispersion of the voters’ ideological bias, and consequently results in an increase in the size of lobby groups and their corresponding aggregate donations. As regards the choice of equilibrium policy, evidence of full policy convergence is not found in the case when citizen-voters of the two groups have separable preferences. In addition, policy equilibrium for a more realistic case in which the two policy platforms exhibit strategic interaction by reacting to each other has also been estimated with the help of simulations. Finally, this paper helps in categorically deciphering the influence of the median voter effect (or the centripetal force) and the distinct centrifugal forces in the form of lobbying effect, swing voter effect and the financial embezzlement effect on the equilibrium policy choice by employing different parametric specifications of the model.

Accuracy and Preferences for Legal Error

We study the interactions between accuracy and standards used in the determination of legal liability. First, we show that accuracy and type-1 errors (wrongful findings of liability) must reduce each other's effectiveness in mitigating optimal type-2 errors (wrongful failures to assign liability) for previous results in the literature to hold. When this condition holds, for major crimes the median voter's tolerance for type-1 errors is reduced as the legal system's accuracy increases. However, this relationship need not hold for minor offenses. Our analysis also reveals that legal processes that emerge under electoral pressures convict more often than is optimal but less often than necessary to maximize deterrence. Moreover, when the median voter's preferences are implemented, an increase in accuracy can counter-intuitively reduce welfare.

Modeling Communication Between the Public and the Authorities while Implementing Innovative Projects in the Context of E-Democracy and Public Administration

Introduction. E-democracy and e-government become an increasingly common attribute of people's lives, since they give is an opportunity to attract population masses to the discussion of both economic and social, as well as managerial innovations. The society urgently requires innovation in the organization of public and regional administration. Problem Statement. Adjemoglu and Robinson have shown that the necessary factor for the success of public or region development is the presence of inclusive political and economic institutions. Inclusive institutions involve the widest possible population in decision-making. Moreover, namely the political institutions (which are crucial for involving as much as possible the public to making decision) determine successful development of society. Innovative projects are the driver of economic development, so the involvement of the general public in their discussion, decision-making, implementation and analysis of the results is an extremely important factor. Many authors have emphasized that the digitalization of information is an important factor for the formation and development of a developed society. Purpose. The purpose of this research is to develop approaches to modeling the communication channels of the public and authorities under the conditions of innovation project implementing in the context of e-democracy and public administration. Materials and Methods. The research uses the methods of system analysis, game theory, structural, functional, and logical analysis. Results. Innovative projects are supported primarily by the middle class, as evidenced by the Hotelling model (the median voter model). The analysis of existing in Ukraine functional model of communication between the public and the authorities while implementing innovation projects has revealed a number of its shortcomings. To correct them, a scheme for optimizing the communication between the authorities and the public by means of e-democracy while implementing an innovation project has been proposed. The necessity of attracting media, experts, and analysts at each stage of the implementation of the innovation project has been justified. Conclusions. The described communication channel includes electronic media and the community of experts and analysts as compulsory components. It enables the creation an effective system of feedbacks between the authorities and the public which allows making optimal decisions and monitoring the socio-economic development of society.

Does the Winner Take It All? Redistributive Policies and Political Extremism

We show that regional heterogeneity of underlying fundamentals (e.g. economic history, geography, natural resources, social capital) can lead to extreme voting in federations. When the outcome of federal policies { such as transfer schemes, market regulation, migration targets { depends on these fundamentals, the set of regions that benefits or loses from such a policy is fixed exogenously (for each given policy). This creates a strategic incentive for the median voter to elect extremely protective federal representatives, who will distort redistribution in favor of their constituency by influencing the choice of the policy magnitude. Interestingly, the benefits of selecting tough negotiators outweigh those of belonging to the ruling coalition. We test our predictions by looking at parties' performances at national and European Parliament elections from 1990 onward, and find that strategic voting is indeed U-shaped: winning and losing member states vote more extremely than those in the middle. Our online survey provides further evidence.

NFL team revenue distribution and revenue sharing: a median voter theorem

PurposeRevenue sharing is ubiquitous among North American professional sports leagues. Under pool revenue sharing, above-average revenue teams of a league effectively transfer revenues to below-average revenue teams. Herein, the authors find and prove that a league will vote into policy a pool revenue sharing arrangement if and only if mean team revenue is greater than presharing median revenue, where this condition is equivalent to the presence of positive nonparametric skewness in a league’s distribution of team revenues. This represents a median voter theorem for league revenue sharing.Design/methodology/approachThe authors consider the case of revenue sharing for the National Football League (NFL), a league that pools and equally shares national revenues among member teams.FindingsThe authors find evidence of positive and significant nonparametric skewness in NFL team revenue distributions for the 2004–2016 seasons. This distribution is observed amid annual majority rule votes of League owners in favor of maintaining the incumbent pool revenue sharing model (as opposed to no team revenue sharing). Distribution of revenues – namely the existence of outlying large market NFL teams – appears to consistently explain the historical popularity of NFL revenue sharing.Originality/valueThe median voter theorem uncovered in the case of NFL applies to all professional sports leagues and can be used predictively as well as descriptively.

The Non-Democratic Roots of Mass Education: Evidence from 200 Years

Because primary education is often conceptualized as a pro-poor redistributive policy, a common argument is that democratization increases its provision. But primary education can also serve the goals of autocrats, including redistribution, promoting loyalty, nation-building, and/or industrialization. To examine the relationship between democratization and education provision empirically, I leverage new datasets covering 109 countries and 200 years. Difference-in-differences and interrupted time series estimates find that, on average, democratization had no or little impact on primary school enrollment rates. When unpacking this average null result, I find that, consistent with median voter theories, democratizationcanlead to an expansion of primary schooling, but the key condition under which it does—when a majority lacked access to primary schooling before democratization—rarely holds. Around the world, state-controlled primary schooling emerged a century before democratization, and in three-fourths of countries that democratized, a majority already had access to primary education before democratization.

Racial Disparities in Law Enforcement: The Role of In-Group Bias and Electoral Pressures

Racial disparities are widespread throughout the U.S. justice system; in arrests and incarceration. These disparities are typically explained by appealing to racial biases among the police and the judiciary. I present a model in which disparities arise between groups in spite of unbiased actions on the part of these authorities. I assume that individuals discount the harm caused by criminal acts by members of their own group. Voters in each county determine the intensity with which legal sanctions are enforced against crimes. There are two groups, with the median voter drawn from the majority. In this model the intensity of law enforcement increases with the size of the minority. When counties are heterogeneous this leads to group disparities at the state level. The intensity of law enforcement depends on both the level of policing and the strictness of the judiciary. In some states, voters can elect their judges and increase the legal sanction through judicial severity, while in other states judges are appointed. We should therefore expect that the relationship between the size of the minority population and the intensity of policing to be stronger in counties where judges are appointed. Using a county-level panel of arrests between 2000-2014 in the United States, I find that in states with appointed judges the level of policing is increasing with the share of the black population. A 1% higher share of black population leads to a 0.58% increase in the clearance rate of property crimes. I do not find a comparable effect in states with elected judges. This agrees with the predictions of the theoretical model.

How do voters perceive ideological congruence? The effects of winning and losing under different electoral rules

The degree of ideological congruence between citizens and their elected representatives is an important feature of democratic systems of government. A long tradition of literature has examined the ideological linkages between citizens and governments, often drawing attention to the differences (or lack thereof) in congruence across different types of electoral systems. Previous research has largely relied on aggregate-level measures of ideological congruence, such as the ideological distance between the position of the median voter and the government. We turn our attention here to how congruence relationships are perceived by individual voters, and how the perceptions of congruence may vary across electoral system types. This individual-level measure of ideological congruence is important in that individual-level, rather than aggregate-level, congruence has been shown to influence other outcomes such as citizen satisfaction with democratic performance. We expect electoral “winners” – those who voted for a party that entered government – to perceive greater ideological congruence between themselves and the government compared to electoral “losers”. We expect this effect to be stronger in majoritarian systems where political competition takes place primarily between two parties, than in proportional systems where electoral losers are more likely to receive a proportional share of representation. We test these expectations by estimating random-effects regressions of perceived individual-level congruence using data from 54 elections held in 23 democracies included in the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). The results provide consistent support for our expectations. Electoral winners in all types of electoral systems perceive greater ideological congruence between themselves and the government, and this effect is stronger in majoritarian systems.

Reaching across the aisle to block reforms

I propose a model of legislative bargaining among endogenous coalitions over multiple policy dimensions. I provide a characterization of (i) the partition of the legislature into coalitions, (ii) the policy reforms that coalitions propose (if any), and (iii) the policy outcome attained from these proposals. I show that—depending on the position of the status quo—either (1) the presence of coalitions does not affect the policy outcome and a median voter theorem holds, or (2) an alliance among legislators with extreme and opposite political views—i.e., a coalition of extremes—can successfully block reforms that would be feasible if legislator could not coalesce. Lastly, I show that the extent to which the existence of coalitions can increase the set of possible policy reforms is severely limited or null.

Optimal Gerrymandering in a competitive environment

We analyze a model of optimal gerrymandering where two parties simulaneously redistrict in a competition for influence in a legislature. Parties allocate geographic blocks to districts, in which the median voter determines the winner. The form of the optimal gerrymander involves “slices” of extreme right-wing blocks that are paired with “slices” of left-wing blocks, as in Friedman and Holden (2008). We also show that, as one party controls the redistricting process in more states, that party designs districts so as to spread out the distribution of district median voters from a given state, thus leading to increased polarization in the legislature. We show that this comparative static holds for a broad class of objective functions.

Supermajority Politics: Equilibrium Range, Diversity, and Compromise

Do legislative voting rules affect the diversity of policies observed across structurally similar political economies, and if so, to what extent? To what degree do these voting rules affect legislative compromise and the stability of the social optimum? Using a spatial model of political competition with single-peaked preferences, we examine these questions in settings where changing incumbent or proposed policies requires supermajority consensus. We develop three findings pertaining to equilibrium policies that are immune to change by any supermajority coalition. First, we prove that at least one equilibrium policy exists and then find the maximum number of equilibrium policies that exist as a function of the supermajority's size. Policy diversity increases, in a nontrivial manner, in the size of the supermajority coalition needed to change the status quo, and the Median Voter Theorem is a particular case of the result with minimal policy diversity. Second, we find the optimal level of compromise needed by a leader to ensure that her proposed policy is not defeated and establish that compromise decreases in the supermajority's size. Third, we identify the minimal supermajority rule that ensures the stability of the social optimum. The robustness of these findings and their theoretical and policy implications are further investigated in the paper.

Mitigating the Gap Between the Rich and the Poor: Key Trends and Drivers of Redistribution

The growing inequality of market income has attracted considerable attention; less so the redistribution of income. This article analyses key trends and drivers of income redistribution in the EU and the world. It shows that in the EU increasing redistribution has largely stabilised the dispersion of disposable income since the late 1990s. Only some advanced countries with a dominant free market ideology have recorded an increasing inequality of disposable income alongside a growing inequality of market outcomes. The evidence from panel data shows that the degree of redistribution increases with per capita income and with the share of low-tech, low-income sectors in manufacturing as well as, in line with the median voter model, when more than half of the voters earn less than the average income in countries with a majoritarian electoral system. More redistribution is associated with lower budgetary surpluses or higher deficits.