Mean Population Growth Research Articles

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]=993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI=653-984) in 2011. In the last 10yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010=1.02, 95% BCI=0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI=1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI=0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Fitness consequences of early life conditions and maternal size effects in a freshwater top predator.

Conditions experienced in early life stages can be an important determinant of individual life histories. In fish, environmental conditions are known to affect early survival and growth, but recent studies have also emphasized maternal effects mediated by size or age. However, the relative sensitivity of the mean fitness (population growth rate λ) to different early life impacts remains largely unexplored. Using a female-based integral projection model (IPM) parameterized from unique long-term demographic data for pike (Esox lucius), we evaluated the relative fitness consequences of different early life impacts, including (i) maternal effects of length on egg weight, potentially affecting offspring (first year) survival, and (ii) effects of temperature on offspring growth and survival. Of the seven vital rates defining the model, offspring survival could not be directly estimated and four scenarios were defined for this rate. Elasticity analyses of the IPM were performed to calculate (i) the total contribution from different lengths to the elasticity of λ to the projection kernel, and (ii) the elasticity of λ to underlying variables of female current length, female offspring length at age 1, and temperature. These elasticities were decomposed into contributions from different vital rates across length. Egg weight increased with female length, as expected, but the effect leveled off for the largest females. However, λ was largely insensitive to this effect, even when egg weight was assumed to have a strong effect on offspring survival. In contrast, λ was sensitive to early temperature conditions through growth and survival. Among mature females, the total elasticity of λ to the projection kernel generally increased with length. The results were robust to a wide range of assumptions. These results suggest that environmental conditions experienced in early life represent a more important driver of mean population growth and fitness of pike than maternal effects of size on offspring survival. We discuss two general mechanisms underlying the weak influence of this maternal effect, suggesting that these may be general for long-lived and highly fecund fishes. This model and results are relevant for the management of long-lived top predators, including many commercially important fish species.

Biological trait analysis and stability of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in the house fly, Musca domestica L. (Diptera: Muscidae).

House flies, Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae), are pests of poultry and have the ability to develop resistance to insecticides. To design a strategy for resistance management, life history traits based on laboratory observations were established for lambda-cyhalothrin-resistant, susceptible and reciprocal crosses of M. domestica strains. Bioassay results showed that the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 98.34 compared to its susceptible strain. The lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.26 and lower fecundity, hatchability, lower number of next generation larvae, and net reproductive rate compared with its susceptible strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase, and biotic potential were lower for the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain compared to its susceptible strain. Resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin, indoxacarb, and abamectin was unstable while resistance to bifenthrin and methomyl was stable in the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain of M. domestica. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for making potential management strategies to delay resistance development in M. domestica.

Size Matters: Individual Variation in Ectotherm Growth and Asymptotic Size.

Body size, and, by extension, growth has impacts on physiology, survival, attainment of sexual maturity, fecundity, generation time, and population dynamics, especially in ectotherm animals that often exhibit extensive growth following attainment of sexual maturity. Frequently, growth is analyzed at the population level, providing useful population mean growth parameters but ignoring individual variation that is also of ecological and evolutionary significance. Our long-term study of Lake Erie Watersnakes, Nerodia sipedon insularum, provides data sufficient for a detailed analysis of population and individual growth. We describe population mean growth separately for males and females based on size of known age individuals (847 captures of 769 males, 748 captures of 684 females) and annual growth increments of individuals of unknown age (1,152 males, 730 females). We characterize individual variation in asymptotic size based on repeated measurements of 69 males and 71 females that were each captured in five to nine different years. The most striking result of our analyses is that asymptotic size varies dramatically among individuals, ranging from 631–820 mm snout-vent length in males and from 835–1125 mm in females. Because female fecundity increases with increasing body size, we explore the impact of individual variation in asymptotic size on lifetime reproductive success using a range of realistic estimates of annual survival. When all females commence reproduction at the same age, lifetime reproductive success is greatest for females with greater asymptotic size regardless of annual survival. But when reproduction is delayed in females with greater asymptotic size, lifetime reproductive success is greatest for females with lower asymptotic size when annual survival is low. Possible causes of individual variation in asymptotic size, including individual- and cohort-specific variation in size at birth and early growth, warrant further investigation.

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys.

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia’s iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973–2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = −0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution.

A combined inverse method and multivariate approach for exploring population trends of Florida manatees

AbstractGiven the expense and time required to monitor marine mammal populations effectively, approaches that fully exploit the resulting data certainly are warranted. We employed a two‐step modeling approach to estimate key demographic parameters, including immigration, from aerial surveys of manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Northwest management unit of Florida. Abundances of adults and calves were predicted by multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models, after accounting for heterogeneous detection rates caused by variable environmental conditions. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a stage‐structured, deterministic model that used an inverse method to estimate parameters with and without immigration. The model without immigration estimated mean survival probabilities of 0.966, 0.923, and 0.794 for adults, subadults and calves, respectively, with a per capita reproductive rate of 0.135. These parameter estimates yielded an overall mean population growth rate of approximately 1.037, which is comparable to rates from mark‐recapture studies. When we added an immigration term that accounted for the greater slope in adult counts since 1999, as identified by the MARS model, the estimated per capita reproductive rate was 0.122, with survival probabilities for adults, subadults and calves of 0.926, 0.920, and 0.833, respectively. These rates were coupled with an estimated mean winter immigration rate corresponding to roughly 5.2% of the adult and subadult population. In this latter scenario, the number of manatees in the core population of the Northwest management unit was predicted to remain constant, with a population growth rate near one, and additional manatees counted during aerial surveys were deemed to be immigrants. While further studies could certainly expound on the potential effects of migrants on population indices, we present this first published immigration estimate for wintering manatees in northwest Florida.

Mechanism, stability and fitness cost of resistance to pyriproxyfen in the house fly, Musca domestica L. (Diptera: Muscidae)

Pyriproxyfen, a bio-rational insecticide, used worldwide for the management of many insect pests including the house fly, Musca domestica. To devise a retrospective resistance management strategy, biological parameters of pyriproxyfen resistant (Pyri-SEL), unselected (UNSEL), Cross1 and Cross2M. domestica strains were studied in the laboratory. Additionally, the stability and mechanism of resistance was also investigated. After 30 generations of pyriproxyfen selection, a field-collected strain developed 206-fold resistance compared with susceptible strain. Synergists such as piperonyl butoxide and S,S,S-tributylphosphorotrithioate did not alter the LC50 values, suggesting another cause of target site resistance to pyriproxyfen in the Pyri-SEL strain. The resistance to all tested insecticides was unstable in Pyri-SEL strain. The relative fitness of 0.51 with lower fecundity, hatchability, lower number of next generation larvae, reduced mean population growth rate and net reproductive rate were observed in the Pyri-SEL strain compared with the UNSEL strain. The cost of fitness associated with pyriproxyfen resistance was evident in Pyri-SEL strain. The present study provides useful information for making pro-active resistance management strategies to delay resistance development.

Managing wolves (Canis lupus) to recover threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Alberta

Across Canada, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) populations are declining because of human-induced changes to food webs that are resulting in apparent competition-induced increases in predator-caused caribou mortality. We tested the hypothesis that wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) population reduction could reverse declines in a woodland caribou population following a BACI (before-after-control-impact) design conducted over a 12-year period in west-central Alberta, Canada. We monitored annual survival for 172 adult female caribou and calf recruitment from 2000 through 2012 and conducted a provincial government delivered wolf population reduction program annually during the winters of 2005–2006 to 2012 (inclusive) in an area centered on the Little Smoky range. Wolf removal translated to a 4.6% increase in mean population growth rate of the Little Smoky population mostly through improvements in calf recruitment. In contrast, the Red Rock Prairie Creek control population exhibited a 4.7% decline. Although the wolf population reduction program appeared to stabilize the Little Smoky population, it did not lead to population increase, however, with λ remaining approximately equal to 1. Therefore, we recommend, if required, predation management be combined with effective habitat conservation and long-term planning to effect the recovery of species, such as woodland caribou, which are declining as a result of habitat-mediated apparent competition.

Cross-resistance, stability, and fitness cost of resistance to imidacloprid in Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae).

Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid insecticide, has been used frequently for the management of Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae) worldwide. To design the strategy for resistance management, life history traits were established for imidacloprid-resistant, susceptible counterpart, and reciprocal crosses M. domestica strains based on laboratory observations. Bioassay results showed that the imidacloprid-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 106-fold to imidacloprid, 19-fold to nitenpyram, 29-fold to chlorpyrifos, and 3.8-fold to cypermethrin compared to that of the susceptible counterpart strain. The imidacloprid-selected strain showed very low cross-resistance against nitenpyram and cypermethrin and a lack of cross-resistance to chlorpyrifos. Resistance to imidacloprid, nitenpyram, and chlorpyrifos was unstable, while resistance to cypermethrin was stable in Imida-SEL strain of M. domestica. The imidacloprid-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.61 and lower fecundity, hatchability, number of next-generation larvae, and net reproductive rate compared with the susceptible counterpart strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase and biotic potential, were lower for the imidacloprid-selected strain compared with the susceptible counterpart strain. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the imidacloprid-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for making potential management strategies to overcome development of resistance.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009.Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de ExtinciónResumenLos índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los índices que reflejan el riesgo de extinción serían valiosos. Desarrollamos 3 índices de biodiversidad que se basan en modelos sencillos de viabilidad de población y que relacionan el riesgo de extinción con la abundancia. Basamos el primer índice en la media geométrica de la abundancia de especies, y el segundo en una media de poder más general. En el tercer índice integramos la media geométrica y la tendencia. Estos índices requieren los mismos datos que índices previos, pero también se relacionan directamente con el riesgo de extinción. La información de campo sobre mariposas y plantas de bosque, y los estudios experimentales de comunidades protozoarias, muestran que los índices se correlacionan con las tasas locales de extinción. Al aplicar el índice basado en la media geométrica sobre los datos globales de los cambios en la abundancia de aves, sugirió que la probabilidad de extinción promedio de aves ha incrementado aproximadamente 1% desde 1970 hasta 2009.Palabras ClaveÍndice de biodiversidad, media geométrica, medida de la biodiversidad, riesgo de extinción

Effect of emamectin benzoate on life history traits and relative fitness of Spodoptera litura (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Emamectin benzoate, a semisynthetic bioinsecticide, has been used frequently for the management of lepidopteran pests of cotton worldwide. To assess the resistance risk and design strategy for resistance management, life history traits were established for emamectin benzoate-resistant, unselected and susceptible S. litura strains based on the laboratory observations. Bioassay results showed that the emamectin benzoate-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 911-fold compared with that of the susceptible strain. The emamectin-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.37 and lower prepupal and pupal weights, prolonged larval duration and development time, lower fecundity and hatchability compared with the susceptible strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase and biotic potential, were lower for the emamectin-selected strain compared with the susceptible strain. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the emamectin-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for determining potential management strategies to overcome development of resistance.

Increased fitness and realized heritability in emamectin benzoate-resistant Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae)

The common green lacewing Chrysoperla carnea is a key biological control agent employed in integrated pest management (IPM) programs for managing various insect pests. A field collected population of C. carnea was selected for emamectin benzoate resistance in the laboratory and fitness costs and realized heritability were investigated. After five generations of selection with emamectin benzoate, C. carnea developed a 318-fold resistance to the insecticide. The resistant population had a relative fitness of 1.49, with substantially higher emergence rate of healthy adults, fecundity and hatchability and shorter larval duration, pupal duration, and development time compared to the susceptible population. Mean population growth rates; such as the intrinsic rate of natural population increase and biotic potential were higher for the emamectin benzoate selected population compared to the susceptible population. The realized heritability (h(2)) value of emamectin benzoate resistance was 0.34 in emamectin benzoate selected population of C. carnea. Chrysoperla species which show resistance to insecticides makes them compatible with those IPM systems where emamectin benzoate is employed.

Population viability analysis of Critically Endangered white-rumped vultures Gyps bengalensis

More than a decade has passed since the catastrophic population decline in Gyps species was reported from South Asia, but much uncertainty remains about quantifying their short-term extinction risk. To estimate the future extinction risk of the white-rumped vulture Gyps bengalensis in Nepal, we conducted counts at 7 nesting colonies between 2002 and 2012. We com- pared 3 methods of estimating abundance based on count data and calculated mean population growth rates and cumulative probabilities of extinction given the abundance estimates from each method. The first 2 methods of abundance estimation were traditional indices: mean and maxi- mum values of all counts. The third method was a mixture modeling approach that corrected raw counts by a detection parameter. The results of the traditional indices were characterized by high uncertainty levels as reflected in the wide confidence intervals, which limited their capacity to make predictions about the fate of the populations with any confidence. The mixture modeling method provided more reliable results; there was a 51% probability of populations facing quasi- extinction (i.e. ≤20 vultures) in 13 yr and a 99% probability of quasi-extinction in 18 yr. Because the mixture modeling method provided more precise predictions while requiring minimal addi- tional effort, population biologists using count data are encouraged to employ such model-based estimators. The white-rumped vulture populations in Rampur are in danger of disappearing within 2 decades, so conservation efforts should be expedited to prevent the loss of this species.

Interspecific Differences between D. pulex and D. magna in Tolerance to Cyanobacteria with Protease Inhibitors

It is known that cyanobacteria negatively affect herbivores due to their production of toxins such as protease inhibitors. In the present study we investigated potential interspecific differences between two major herbivores, Daphnia magna and Daphnia pulex, in terms of their tolerance to cyanobacteria with protease inhibitors. Seven clones each of D. magna and of D. pulex were isolated from different habitats in Europe and North America. To test for interspecific differences in the daphnids’ tolerance to cyanobacteria, their somatic and population growth rates were determined for each D. magna and D. pulex clone after exposure to varying concentrations of two Microcystis aeruginosa strains. The M. aeruginosa strains NIVA and PCC− contained either chymotrypsin or trypsin inhibitors, but no microcystins. Mean somatic and population growth rates on a diet with 20% NIVA were significantly more reduced in D. pulex than in D. magna. On a diet with 10% PCC−, the population growth of D. pulex was significantly more reduced than that of D. magna. This indicates that D. magna is more tolerant to cyanobacteria with protease inhibitors than D. pulex. The reduction of growth rates was possibly caused by an interference of cyanobacterial inhibitors with proteases in the gut of Daphnia, as many other conceivable factors, which might have been able to explain the reduced growth, could be excluded as causal factors. Protease assays revealed that the sensitivities of chymotrypsins and trypsins to cyanobacterial protease inhibitors did not differ between D. magna and D. pulex. However, D. magna exhibited a 2.3-fold higher specific chymotrypsin activity than D. pulex, which explains the observed higher tolerance to cyanobacterial protease inhibitors of D. magna. The present study suggests that D. magna may control the development of cyanobacterial blooms more efficiently than D. pulex due to differences in their tolerance to cyanobacteria with protease inhibitors.

Effects of Microalgae and Alfalfa Meal on Population Growth and Production of a Freshwater Rotifer, Euchlanis dilatata (Rotifera: Mongononta)

AbstractPopulation growth and production of the freshwater rotifer, Euchlanis dilatata, were determined after being fed 1 of 12 diets: Scenedesmus quadricauda (S), Chlorella vulgaris (C), baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) (Y), alfalfa meal (Medicago spp.) (A), and eight combinations of S+C, S+Y, C+Y, S+C+Y, S+A, C+A, S+C+A, and Y+A (mixture in the same ratio by equal nitrogen weight). Results showed that both microalgal and alfalfa meal alone and in combination with Y had a significantly higher (P < 0.05) population growth and production compared with Y alone. The mean maximum E. dilatata population density fed on S, S+Y, C, C+Y, S+C, S+C+Y, Y, A, S+A, C+A, S+C+A, and Y+A diets were 65 ± 7.5 (mean ± SE), 124.6 ± 17.2, 115.8 ± 7.9, 41.5 ± 7.9, 131 ± 14.1, 93.5 ± 8.7, 14.5 ± 7.6, 129.5 ± 18.5, 255.0 ± 20.5, 180 ± 30.5, 124.5 ± 25.4, and 61.5 ± 24.5 individuals/mL, respectively. Correspondingly, the mean population growth rates (K) through the 16‐d culture period were 0.29, 0.40, 0.45, 0.27, 0.34, 0.41, 0.26, 0.51, 0.58, 0.59, 0.39, and 0.45/d, respectively. Results indicated that alfalfa meal in combination with microalgae and yeast could be used as primary diets for E. dilatata culture. This may reduce the costs of rotifer production.

Influence of water temperature on rainbow smelt spawning and early life history dynamics in St. Martin Bay, Lake Huron

Rainbow smelt are an important prey species for native and introduced salmonines in the Great Lakes. In Lake Huron, rainbow smelt populations are characterized by variable recruitment and year-class strength. To understand the influence of water temperature on reproduction, growth, and survival during larval-fish stages, we sampled spawning tributaries and larval-fish habitats during 2008 and 2009 in St. Martin Bay, Lake Huron. Spawning by rainbow smelt occurred primarily when stream temperatures were between 3 and 10°C, which resulted in a 7–10-day spawning period during 2008, and a 15–20-day spawning period during 2009. Regardless of these differences in spawning temperatures and duration, peak larval-fish densities during 2008 were double those observed during 2009. Length–frequency analysis of larval-fish populations during both years revealed stream-hatched fish during May and a later emergence of larval rainbow smelt during summer, presumably originating from lake spawning. Warmer bay water temperatures led to earlier emergence of lake-spawned rainbow smelt larvae during 2009. Stream-hatched fish larvae experienced large-scale mortality during May 2008 resulting in a bay population consisting primarily of lake-spawned rainbow smelt larvae, but during 2009 both stream- and lake-hatched cohorts experienced higher survival concomitant with significantly higher mean population growth rates. Higher larval-fish growth rates during 2009 appeared to be density-dependent and facilitated by warmer water temperatures during late June and cooler water temperatures during July. Temperature-mediated differences in annual growth rates and irregular contributions from stream- and lake-hatched fish larvae are important factors affecting survival and abundance of young-of-the-year rainbow smelt in Lake Huron.

Stochastic Population Dynamics and Life-History Variation in Marine Fish Species

We examined whether differences in life-history characteristics can explain interspecific variation in stochastic population dynamics in nine marine fish species living in the Barents Sea system. After observation errors in population estimates were accounted for, temporal variability in natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate was negatively related to generation time. Mean natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate were lower in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Thus, important species-specific characteristics of the population dynamics were related to the species position along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. These relationships were further associated with interspecific differences in ecology: species at the fast end were mainly pelagic, with short generation times and high natural mortality, annual recruitment, and population growth rates, and also showed high temporal variability in those demographic traits. In contrast, species at the slow end were long-lived, deepwater species with low rates and reduced temporal variability in the same demographic traits. These interspecific relationships show that the life-history characteristics of a species can predict basic features of interspecific variation in population dynamical characteristics of marine fish, which should have implications for the choice of harvest strategy to facilitate sustainable yields.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with "reverse-J" shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.

Variation in life history and demography of the American black bear

AbstractVariation in life history and demography across a species' range informs researchers about regional adaptations and affects whether managers can borrow information from other populations in decision‐making. The American black bear (Ursus americanus) is a long‐lived game species whose continued persistence depends on management of harvest and removal of habituated bears that come into conflict with humans. Understanding the demography of black bears guides efforts at management and conservation, yet detailed knowledge of many populations is typically lacking. I performed a hierarchical Bayesian meta‐analysis of black bear demographic studies across the geographic range of the species to explore how vital rates vary across the range, what information they give us about population growth, and whether managers can justify borrowing information from other studies to inform management decisions. Cub, yearling, and adult survival and fecundity varied between eastern and western North America, whereas subadult survival did not show geographic structuring. Adult survival and fecundity appeared to trade off, with higher survival in the western portions of bears' range and higher fecundity in the east. Although adult survival had the highest elasticity, differences in reproduction drove differences in population growth rate. Mean population growth rate was higher in the east (0.99; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.96, 1.03) than the west (0.97; 95%CrI: 0.93, 1.01). Despite declining trends in the west, 34% of the distribution of population growth rate was >1, compared to 55% in the east. Further work needs to be done to address the cause of the apparent trade‐off between adult survival and fecundity and explore how the estimated growth rates are likely to affect population status of black bears. Because population growth rates are close to 1 and small deviations could impact whether a population is considered increasing or decreasing, managers need to employ caution in borrowing vital rates from other populations. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.