Mean Population Growth Research Articles

Weather events influence survival and recruitment of Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) in the Caribbean

Abstract The West Indies is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts. Understanding how environmental conditions influence survival of resident avifauna is an important information need given the predicted increases of drought and frequency and intensity of severe storms in the region. Throughout much of the Caribbean, Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) are widespread and abundant, traits that may facilitate understanding their response to environmental changes in the region. We used a 10-yr capture–mark–recapture data set to examine C. flaveola survival, recruitment, population growth, and age structure in context of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperatures, drought conditions, and occurrence and intensity of storm events. Our models suggested wing length, occurrence of storms, and drought all influenced survival. Both the incidence of storms and drier than average conditions in the preceding wet season (April–June) decreased survival. Sex of bird and net hours influenced capture probability, but weather influences on recruitment were equivocal. During non-storm years, mean population growth was stable at 1.019 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.098), but dropped to 0.843 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.846) in storm years. Increasing frequency of storms, such as back-to-back years, would likely push the growth rate lower. A protracted pattern of increased storm frequency, especially if coupled with a subsequent drought during the wet season, may lead to localized extirpations or strongly reduced populations.

A demographic survey of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation using physical and genetic capture‐recapture‐recovery sampling

AbstractConducting assessments to understand the effects of changing environmental conditions on polar bear (Ursus maritimus) demography has become increasingly important to inform management and conservation. Here, we combined physical (2005–2007) and genetic (2017–2018) mark‐recapture with harvest recovery data (2005–2018) to estimate demographic rates of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation and examine the possible effects of climate, dynamic ice habitat, and prey resources on survival. Large sample sizes (e.g., 2,513 marked animals) allowed us to estimate temporal variation in annual survival rates using multistate mark‐recapture‐recovery models. We did not detect statistically significant effects of climate, ice habitat, and prey during the 13‐year study. Estimated total abundance in 2006 was 2,190, credible interval (CRI) [1,954, 2,454] and 1,944, CRI [1,593, 2,366] in 2018. Geometric mean population growth rate (0.99, 95% CRI [0.97, 1.01]) indicated the subpopulation may have declined slightly between 2006 and 2018. However, we did not detect a declining trend in survival or substantial change in reproductive metrics over this period. Given forecasts of major environmental change we emphasize the need to review monitoring programs for this subpopulation.

Merging integrated population models and individual-based models to project population dynamics of recolonizing species

Recolonizing species exhibit unique population dynamics, namely dispersal to and colonization of new areas, that have important implications for management. A resulting challenge is how to simultaneously model demographic and movement processes so that recolonizing species can be accurately projected over time and space. We introduce a framework for spatially explicit projection modeling that harnesses the rigorous parameter estimation made possible by an integrated population model (IPM) and the flexible movement modeling made possible by an individual-based model (IBM). Our framework has two components: [1] a Bayesian IPM-driven age- and state-structured population model that governs the population state process and estimation of demographic rates, and [2] an IBM-driven spatial model that allows for the projection of dispersal and habitat colonization. We applied this model framework to estimate current and project future dynamics of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Washington State, USA. We used data from 74 telemetered wolves and yearly pup and pack counts to parameterize the model, and then projected statewide dynamics over 50 years. Mean population growth was 1.29 (95 % Bayesian Credible Interval = 1.26–1.33) during initial recolonization from 2009 to 2020 and decreased to 1.02 (95 % Prediction Interval = 0.98–1.04) in the projection period (2021–2070). Our results suggest that gray wolves have an ~100 % probability of colonizing the last of Washington State's three specified recovery regions by 2030, regardless of alternative assumptions about how dispersing wolves select new territories. Our spatially explicit projection model can be used to project the dynamics of any species for which spatial spread is an important driver of population dynamics.

Overview of the city's cultural development and urban indicators

Urbanization (or urbanisation) is the population shift from rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. It can also mean population growth in urban areas instead of rural ones. It is predominantly the process by which towns and cities are formed and become larger as more people begin living and working in central areas. Urbanization is often responsible for the myriad of modern problems facing humanity. Although the two concepts are sometimes used interchangeably, urbanization should be distinguished from urban growth. Urbanization refers to the proportion of the total national population living in areas classified as urban, whereas urban growth strictly refers to the absolute number of people living in those areas. It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world will be urbanized. This is predicted to generate artificial scarcities of land, lack of drinking water, playgrounds and so on for most urban dwellers. The predicted urban population growth is equivalent to approximately 3 billion urbanites by 2050, much of which will occur in Africa and Asia. Notably, the United Nations has also recently projected that nearly all global population growth from 2017 to 2030 will be by cities, with about 1.1 billion new urbanites over the next 10 years. In the long term, urbanization is expected to significantly impact the quality of life in negative ways. This article defines "cultural experience" and places it in a holistic conceptual model; “the cultural city” where it plays a relevant role in improving the performing of cities. The conceptual model combines the basic elements of the heritage city, the smart city and the creative city. The city is interpreted from a threefold perspective; as a repository of resources, as a connective interface, and as the setting for citizens' life and social and professional experiences. In this context, each of these perspectives incorporates culture in a different way, enabling different models of value creation and different processes of production and reproduction of this value. In each of the urban models described above, production processes that combine symbolic, physical, financial, social, human and cultural capital in different ways and urban strategies are implemented to provide cultural experiences that ignite transformative effects through several spillovers.

Beyond mean fitness: Demographic stochasticity and resilience matter at tree species climatic edges

AbstractAimLinking local population dynamics and species distributions is crucial to predicting the impacts of climate change. Although many studies focus on the mean fitness of populations, theory shows that species distributions can be shaped by demographic stochasticity or population resilience. Here, we examine how mean fitness (measured by invasion rate), demographic stochasticity and resilience (measured by the ability to recover from disturbance) constrain populations at the edges compared with the climatic centre.LocationEurope: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden.PeriodForest inventory data used for fitting the models cover the period from 1985 to 2013.Major taxaDominant European tree species; angiosperms and gymnosperms.MethodsWe developed dynamic population models covering the entire life cycle of 25 European tree species with climatically dependent recruitment models fitted to forest inventory data. We then ran simulations using integral projection and individual‐based models to test how invasion rates, risk of stochastic extinction and ability to recover from stochastic disturbances differ between the centre and edges of the climatic niches of species.ResultsResults varied among species, but in general, demographic constraints were stronger at warm edges and for species in harsher climates. Conversely, recovery was more limiting at cold edges. In addition, we found that for several species, constraints at the edges were attributable to demographic stochasticity and capacity for recovery rather than mean fitness.Main conclusionsOur results highlight that mean fitness is not the only mechanism at play at the edges; demographic stochasticity and population capacity to recover also matter for European tree species. To understand how climate change will drive species range shifts, future studies will need to analyse the interplay between population mean growth rate and stochastic demographic processes in addition to disturbances.

Foliar spraying of elicitors in pear trees induced resistance to Cacopsylla bidens

• Elicitors influence the Cacopsylla pyricola population. • Chitosan induced resistance to Cacopsylla pyricola. • Chitosan for IPM of Cacopsylla pyricola. • Activity of detoxifying enzymes in pear psyllid is altered by elicitor application. • Elicitors influence secondary metabolites. The pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola is a serious pest of pear worldwide. In this research, the effects of salicylic acid (SA), chitosan, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), and Serenade Aso ( Bacillus subtilis QST713) were studied on the induced resistance of pear trees to C. pyricola . The treatments showed a significant difference in terms of population growth of C. pyricola after 7 and 14 days during two years. In 2019, the mean population growth of total life stages of C. pyricola in the studied treatments was significantly lower than control after 7 and 14 days of spraying. In 2020 (7 and 14 days after spraying), the percent decline in the mean population of pear psylla (total life stages) was highest on chitosan treatment (75 and 85 %, respectively) and the lowest on control (30 and 48 %, respectively). GC-MS analysis revealed the range of chemicals in the pear leaves under different treatments. Based on the results, 23 compounds were identified, including 9 alkaloids, 6 flavonoids, 4 polyphenols, 3 terpenoids, and one glycoside. In all treatments except Serenade, the amounts of alkaloids increased compared to the control. Furthermore, the activity of catalase and glutathione S- transferase enzymes in C. pyricola under chitosan treatment was significantly higher than others; but the activity of peroxidase significantly decreased on chitosan compared to SA and GABA. The lower levels of peroxidase in C. pyricola reared on trees treated with chitosan indicate this insect has not been able to detoxify plant secondary metabolites effectually. In addition, our findings suggested that chitosan on pear trees could act effectively in reducing the C. pyricola population and can be considered in integrated management programs of this pest.

Effects of salinity on survival, reproductive performance, population growth, and life stage composition in the calanoid copepod Acartia bilobata

Copepods are a critical live prey item for most marine finfish larvae in the natural environment. The calanoid copepod belonging to species Acartia is a potential live food for the larval rearing of marine finfishes because of their higher productivity and tolerance to wide range of salinities. The present study was conducted to determine the effect of salinity on production parameters to standardize the optimal salinity for Acartia bilobata culture. For selecting the optimal salinity range, the adult copepods were exposed to abrupt salinity change from 30 g L−1 to ten salinity levels, including 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 g L−1 and their survival estimated after 24 h. Further, the effect of salinity (15, 20,25,30, and 35 g L−1) on egg production, hatching success and population growth were studied. Following sudden salinity change, A. bilobata could tolerate a wide range of salinities from 15 to 35 g L−1, and no copepod survived below 10 g L−1 and above 35 g L−1. Average daily egg production was significantly higher at 25 and 30 g L−1 (32 ± 1 and 34 ± 2 eggs female−1 day−1). A remarkably low egg hatching success was recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity; however, all other tested salinities showed similar egg hatching success. Different salinity levels did not affect the sex ratio of A. bilobata. A significantly higher total population number (1539 ± 75) and intrinsic population growth rate (0.50 ± 0.00) was observed at 30 g L−1, followed by 25 g L−1 salinity. The lowest mean population (518 ± 19) and population growth rate (0.39 ± 0.00) were recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity. The study results suggested that 25–30 g L−1 is the optimal salinity range to achieve maximal production of A. bilobata.

Range-Wide Population Projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris)

Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris) have a disjunct distribution with a relictual population in southeastern Massachusetts and a larger range across the mid-Atlantic United States. The relictual population is currently listed with protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act but the status of the population in the remainder of the species' range has not been assessed, and there is concern that it may be at risk of extinction without protection. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requires scientific information of the species' status to inform conservation decisions. There is little empirical information available from P. rubriventris populations and, furthermore, the majority of what exists comes from the disjunct northern subpopulation. To fill data gaps in the species' life history and reduce geographic bias, we supplement available data from P. rubriventris with demographic rate estimates from other Pseudemys species to parameterize an age-structured population projection model. Our estimate of mean population growth rate was 0.987 (0.92–1.04), indicating that P. rubriventris populations may be in decline. However, there was considerable uncertainty in our results, with 35% of projections resulting in stable or increasing populations. Additional uncertainty about parameter values, geographic variation, and current threats limit the assessment. We discuss the merits and limitations of our population projection modeling (PPM) approach where other analytical methods are precluded by lack of available data.

An automated work-flow for pinniped surveys: A new tool for monitoring population dynamics

Detecting changes in population trends depends on the accuracy of estimated mean population growth rates and thus the quality of input data. However, monitoring wildlife populations poses economic and logistic challenges especially in complex and remote habitats. Declines in wildlife populations can remain undetected for years unless effective monitoring techniques are developed, guiding appropriate management actions. We developed an automated survey workflow using unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to quantify the number and size of individual animals, using the well-studied Scandinavian harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) as a model species. We compared ground-based counts using telescopes with manual flights, using a zoom photo/video, and pre-programmed flights producing orthomosaic photo maps. We used machine learning to identify and count both pups and older seals and we present a new method for measuring body size automatically. We evaluate the population’s reproductive success using drone data, historical counts and predictions from a Leslie matrix population model. The most accurate and time-efficient results were achieved by performing pre-programmed flights where individual seals are identified by machine learning and their body sizes are measured automatically. The accuracy of the machine learning detector was 95–97% and the classification error was 4.6 ± 2.9 for pups and 3.1 ± 2.1 for older seals during good light conditions. There was a clear distinction between the body sizes of pups and older seals during breeding time. We estimated 320 pups in the breeding season 2021 with the drone, which is well beyond the expected number, based on historical data on pup production. The new high quality data from the drone survey confirms earlier indications of a deteriorating reproductive rate in this important harbour seal colony. We show that aerial drones and machine learning are powerful tools for monitoring wildlife in inaccessible areas which can be used to assess annual recruitment and seasonal variations in body condition.

Assessing the Viability of the Sarasota Bay Community of Bottlenose Dolphins

Population models, such as those used for Population Viability Analysis (PVA), are valuable for projecting trends, assessing threats, guiding environmental resource management, and planning species conservation measures. However, rarely are the needed data on all aspects of the life history available for cetacean species, because they are long-lived and difficult to study in their aquatic habitats. We present a detailed assessment of population dynamics for the long-term resident Sarasota Bay common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) community. Model parameters were estimated from 27 years of nearly complete monitoring, allowing calculation of age-specific and sex-specific mortality and reproductive rates, uncertainty in parameter values, fluctuation in demographic rates over time, and intrinsic uncertainty in the population trajectory resulting from stochastic processes. Using the Vortex PVA model, we projected mean population growth and quantified causes of variation and uncertainty in growth. The ability of the model to simulate the dynamics of the population was confirmed by comparing model projections to observed census trends from 1993 to 2020. When the simulation treated all losses as deaths and included observed immigration, the model projects a long-term mean annual population growth of 2.1%. Variance in annual growth across years of the simulation (SD= 3.1%) was due more to environmental variation and intrinsic demographic stochasticity than to uncertainty in estimates of mean demographic rates. Population growth was most sensitive to uncertainty and annual variation in reproduction of peak breeding age females and in calf and juvenile mortality, while adult survival varied little over time. We examined potential threats to the population, including increased anthropogenic mortality and impacts of red tides, and tested resilience to catastrophic events. Due to its life history characteristics, the population was projected to be demographically stable at smaller sizes than commonly assumed for Minimum Viable Population of mammals, but it is expected to recover only slowly from any catastrophic events, such as disease outbreaks and spills of oil or other toxins. The analyses indicate that well-studied populations of small cetaceans might typically experience slower growth rates (about 2%) than has been assumed in calculations of Potential Biological Removal used by management agencies to determine limits to incidental take of marine mammals. The loss of an additional one dolphin per year was found to cause significant harm to this population of about 150 to 175 animals. Beyond the significance for the specific population, demographic analyses of the Sarasota Bay dolphins provide a template for examining viability of other populations of small cetaceans.

Radiocarbon data may support a Malthus-Boserup model of hunter-gatherer population expansion

Describing and explaining the population growth trajectories of prehistoric hunter-gatherers is an important research problem. Large radiocarbon data sets provide one empirical starting point for describing these trajectories; however, explaining trajectories of growth must always take place within the context of theory. In this paper, we formalize a ratchet model of long-term, mean population growth among hunter-gatherers and evaluate the plausibility of that model using two extensive radiocarbon data sets from Central Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain. Our analysis suggests that hunter-gatherer populations in these regions displayed waves of population growth separated by periods of population saturation and competition for resources. Our model and results suggest that hunter-gatherer populations in Texas may have experienced multiple demographic transitions to successively higher levels of population saturation (carrying capacity). Our results derive from a general model, a set of methods applicable across archaeological regions, and provide a basis for hypotheses that may explain changes in the socioecology of hunter-gatherers.

Interaction of traffic intensity and habitat features shape invasion dynamics of an invasive alien species (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in a regional road network

Road corridors are important conduits for plant invasions, and an understanding of the underlying mechanisms is necessary for efficient management of invasive alien species in road networks. Previous studies identified road type with different traffic volumes as a key driver of seed dispersal and abundance of alien plants along roads. However, how the intensity of traffic interacts with the habitat features of roadsides in shaping invasion processes is not sufficiently understood. To elucidate these interactions, we analyzed the population dynamics of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a common non-indigenous annual species in Europe and other continents, in a regional road network in Germany. Over a period of five years, we recorded plant densities at roadsides along four types of road corridors, subject to different intensities of traffic, and with a total length of about 300 km. We also classified roadsides in regard to habitat features (disturbance, shade). This allowed us to determine corridor- and habitat-specific mean population growth rates and spatial-temporal shifts in roadside plant abundances at the regional scale. Our results show that both traffic intensity and roadside habitat features significantly affect the population dynamics of ragweed. The combination of high traffic intensity and high disturbance intensity led to the highest mean population growth whereas population growth in less suitable habitats (e.g. shaded roadsides) declined with decreasing traffic intensity. We conclude that high traffic facilitates ragweed invasion along roads, likely due to continued seed dispersal, and can compensate partly for less suitable habitat features (i.e. shade) that decrease population growth along less trafficked roads. As a practical implication, management efforts to decline ragweed invasions within road networks (e.g. by repeated mowing) should be prioritized along high trafficked roads, and roadside with disturbed, open habitats should be reduced as far as possible, e.g. by establishing grassland from the regional species pool.

Density Dependence and Adult Survival Drive Dynamics in Two High Elevation Amphibian Populations

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

Abundance, survival and population growth of killer whales Orcinus orca at subantarctic Marion Island

Killer whales, Orcinus orca, are a cosmopolitan species with large ecological and demographic variation across populations. Population‐specific demographic studies are, therefore, crucial in accurately assessing the status and trends of local killer whale populations. Such studies require long‐term datasets and remain scarce, particularly in the Southern Ocean where detailed population specific studies have only been conducted at a single archipelago – Îles Crozet. Here, we analysed 12 years of capture–recapture data (comprising nearly 90 000 identification photographs taken from 2006 to 2018) of killer whales at subantarctic Marion Island (46°54′S, 37°45′E) to estimate the abundance, survival and growth rate of this population. Demographic parameters were estimated using multistate capture recapture models, and Pradel Survival‐Lambda and POPAN single‐state models implemented in the program MARK. Annual survival probability (0.98 [95% CI: 0.96–0.99]) was constant over time, and no important differences between sexes and age‐classes (calves, juveniles, adults) were found. This estimate of survival suggests a life expectancy of approximately 48 years. Realised mean population growth rate (λ) was 1.012 (0.987–1.037) with an estimated population size of 54 (54–60) individuals and a mean calving rate of 0.13 (0.06–0.20) calves born per year per reproductive female. The survival and reproduction rates of killer whales at Marion Island are similar to those of killer whale populations in the eastern North Pacific, Norway and Îles Crozet. However, subtle differences in survival and reproduction rates are present. These are likely the result of local differences in resource abundances, historical impacts on social structure and/or stressors. Also, the presence and scale of fisheries (legal and illegal) in the area may provide opportunities for direct interactions with fishing activities impacting survival and reproduction rates.

Growth Performance and Egg Ratio of a Marine Rotifer Brachionus rotundiformis Fed Different Diets in Captivity

This study was carried out to evaluate the population growth and egg ratio of Brachionus rotundiformis by feeding with three different diets, i.e., live microalgae Nannochloropsis sp., Baker’s yeast, and powdered spirulina. A total of nine conical flasks of 1 L volume were divided into three treatment groups for determining the feeding performance for eight consecutive days. Each experimental group was stocked with B. rotundiformis at an initial density of 10 ind. mL−1. Water temperature, pH, salinity, and light were maintained at (24–29) °C, (7.5–8.5), 30 ppt, and 4000 lx, respectively. Feed was provided twice per day at 9:00 AM and 7:00 PM. The highest mean (±SE) population growth of rotifer was achieved at the end of the culture period (on the 8th day) fed live Nannochloropsis sp. (122 ± 12 ind. mL−1), which was significantly higher compared to the Baker’s yeast and powdered spirulina (p 0.05). The highest mean (±SE) egg ratio of B. rotundiformis was observed in the live Nannochloropsis fed group (0.89 ± 0.01) at the end of the rearing period, which was significantly higher than that of Baker’s Yeast and powdered Spirulina fed group (p < 0.05). Among the three diets, live Nannochloropsis had shown the dietary superiority over Baker’s yeast and powdered spirulina in culturing B. rotundiformis. The results of this study suggest that live Nannochloropsis could be the most suitable diet for the laboratory culture of B. rotundiformis.

Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis.

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.

A dynamic energy budget–integral projection model (DEB-IPM) to predict population-level dynamics based on individual data: a case study using the small and rapidly reproducing species Engraulis japonicus — RETRACTED

The coupling of a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model with an integral projection model (IPM; i.e. generating a DEB-IPM) is a promising new method to predict the population-level dynamics of species based on individuals. In a single framework, the DEB component provides links to the individual-level physiological processes, and the IPM component provides an alternative way to investigate ecological changes in quantitative life history characteristics and population dynamics. In this paper we present a DEB-IPM to analyse a Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) population in Chinese seas. The coupled model describes the dynamics of a population of individuals, where each individual follows an energy budget. Primary model parameters (e.g. energy conductance, ὺ; allocation coefficient, κ; and volume-specific somatic maintenance, [ṗM]) were estimated. The mean population growth rate (rp) was calculated to be 3.4year–1. The predicted demographic rates (e.g. growth, survival and reproduction) were well within observed ranges, and fit within average recorded values, and captured known seasonal trends. DEB-IPMs could be a useful tool to capture the dynamics of biodiversity amidst global environmental changes.

Synchronized failure of global crop production.

Multiple breadbasket failure is a risk to global food security. However, there are no global analyses that have quantitatively assessed if global crop production has actually tended towards synchronized failure historically. We show that synchronization in production within major commodities such as maize and soybean has declined in recent decades, leading to increased global stability in production of these crops. In contrast, synchrony between crops has peaked, making global calorie production more unstable. Under the hypothetical event of complete synchronized failure we estimate simultaneous global production losses for rice, wheat, soybean and maize to lie between -17% and -34%. We find that offsetting these losses by reducing variation in production across all growing locations, and raising production ceilings in breadbaskets, are far more effective than strategies focused on reducing variability in breadbaskets alone or closing production gaps in low productive locations. Our findings suggest that maintaining asynchrony in the food system requires a central place in discussions of future food demand under mean climate change, population growth and consumption trends.

Optimized temporal sampling designs of the Weibull growth curve with extensions to the von Bertalanffy model

AbstractWe describe designs for the temporal aspect of sampling in an experiment that estimates the population mean growth of an organism that can be modeled using a Weibull or von Bertalanffy growth curve. First, the properties of the Weibull growth curve are explained. Next, using the shape parameter (v), the Weibull growth curve can be categorized into two shape categories: sigmoid and saturation. D‐optimization and shape classification are used to determine the optimal sampling occasions and the effect of a sampling schedule on the precision of the size estimates. Finally, the results are used to recommend a generalized sampling design to best determine the shape and size of a growth curve.

Possible effects of ingested lead gunshot on populations of ducks wintering in the UK

Although the use of lead ammunition for shooting wildfowl and/or over listed wetlands in the UK has been banned, c. 70% of ducks shot in England (the only UK country with compliance monitoring) are still shot with lead and the proportion of ducks found dead with signs of lead poisoning from ingested gunshot has not declined significantly since the ban. However, there is little quantitative evidence of the impacts of additional mortality from lead poisoning on duck populations. For the eight duck species that winter in freshwater habitats in the UK, we found that inter‐specific variation in mean population growth rate during the period 1990/1991 to 2013/2014 was significantly negatively correlated with two independent measures of the prevalence of ingested lead gunshot in the UK and Europe. This relationship was found for a wide range of different periods over which population growth was estimated, and also for annual growth rates in the period 1966/1967 to 2013/2014, derived from smoothed population trajectories. These findings support the hypothesis that ingested lead gunshot might affect population trend. An alternative hypothesis, that migratory short‐stopping driven by climate change affected trends in numbers of ducks wintering in the UK, was not supported by simple or partial correlation results. The possible impact of ingested lead gunshot on the Common Pochard Aythya ferina, a species listed as globally threatened, is of special concern.