Weather events influence survival and recruitment of Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) in the Caribbean

Abstract

Abstract The West Indies is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts. Understanding how environmental conditions influence survival of resident avifauna is an important information need given the predicted increases of drought and frequency and intensity of severe storms in the region. Throughout much of the Caribbean, Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) are widespread and abundant, traits that may facilitate understanding their response to environmental changes in the region. We used a 10-yr capture–mark–recapture data set to examine C. flaveola survival, recruitment, population growth, and age structure in context of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperatures, drought conditions, and occurrence and intensity of storm events. Our models suggested wing length, occurrence of storms, and drought all influenced survival. Both the incidence of storms and drier than average conditions in the preceding wet season (April–June) decreased survival. Sex of bird and net hours influenced capture probability, but weather influences on recruitment were equivocal. During non-storm years, mean population growth was stable at 1.019 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.098), but dropped to 0.843 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.846) in storm years. Increasing frequency of storms, such as back-to-back years, would likely push the growth rate lower. A protracted pattern of increased storm frequency, especially if coupled with a subsequent drought during the wet season, may lead to localized extirpations or strongly reduced populations.