Because disaster reduction resources are always constrained, risk mitigation measures and policies need to be weighted toward efficiency or equity. Greater efficiency focuses on high-risk areas, and greater equity focuses on identifying additional potential risk areas. To address this efficiency-equity tradeoff decision, a data-driven urban waterlogging risk mitigation capability evaluation and improving framework was proposed for nonprofit operations and government bailouts. First, a novel evaluation index was defined, the F(α,β) score, to consider both precision and recall in the binary classification tasks and to seek an effective efficiency-equity trade-off, after which a two-person, zero-sum matrix game model was developed to calculate the α and β parameters and select the highest valued optimal model. Then, using this model, a risk probability map was generated for Wuhan, China, and data envelopment analysis was used to conduct a risk mitigation capability evaluation and identify the needed policy improvements. It was found that: (1) vulnerability was the primary risk-related factor, followed by adaptability and restorability; (2) more importance should be attached to equity than efficiency when implementing risk reduction capability evaluations, that is, authorities should reduce resource investments in extremely high-risk DEA-inefficient areas and identify a greater number of potential risk areas; (3) there were around 1.55% of extremely high-risk areas, which were mainly concentrated in the Jianghan and Wuchang districts and around 9% of high-risk areas, mainly located in the Hongshan district; and (4) northeastern and southwestern Jianghan district could be a valuable reference for urban waterlogging management and disaster reduction. However, excessive investment in transportation infrastructure and construction in DEA inefficient areas should be appropriately reduced.
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