Corn Market Research Articles

Mathematical Modeling of Demand and Supply: Analyzing Corn Market Equilibrium

This article offers a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future development trends of the corn industry, with a specific focus on its significance within China’s agricultural sector. As one of the country’s most important grain crops, corn plays a crucial role in various sectors including animal feed, human food, and as a key raw material in industrial applications. Over recent years, the corn market in China has witnessed substantial fluctuations in both supply and demand, driven by a combination of factors such as extreme weather events, shifts in trade policies, and other external influences. The Chinese government has responded to these challenges by implementing a range of measures aimed at bolstering the industry, including policy directives, financial incentives, and enhanced regulatory oversight. Additionally, the promotion of technological innovation has been identified as a critical component in improving efficiency and productivity within the sector. Looking forward, the corn industry is poised for more stable and sustainable growth, driven by deeper integration within the industry and increased international collaboration. These developments are expected to solidify the industry’s role not only within China but also in the global agricultural economy, ensuring its continued contribution to both national food security and economic development.

Food-fuel nexus beyond mean-variance: New evidence from a quantile approach

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil, ethanol, and corn markets across various quantiles of return distributions, as well as at higher statistical moments. Using a quantile vector autoregression model and data from 2007 to 2022, we find that the cross-market linkages are quantile dependent, with the strongest connections observed in the tails of the distribution. A shock to the oil market significantly impacts ethanol and corn returns under extreme bearish and bullish conditions. Positive shocks to the corn market reduce ethanol returns when the ethanol market is highly bullish, but this effect becomes positive in the left tail of the distribution. We also identify significant co-movement in higher statistical moments between these markets. Extreme excess kurtosis in the food-fuel nexus is more likely to occur with high financial market uncertainty, a bullish stock market, contracting industrial production, and a strong US dollar. In addition to these variables, credit spreads, futures market liquidity, futures term structure, and hedging pressure also influence kurtosis in individual markets within the nexus.

Pengembangan Strategi Pemasaran Hasil Pertanian Jagung

Developing a marketing strategy for corn agricultural products is an important step to increase the competitiveness and income of corn farmers in Indonesia. Corn as one of the main agricultural commodities has great potential to meet food and industrial needs. This discussion aims to analyze the current conditions of the corn market, identify the challenges faced by farmers, and formulate effective marketing strategies. The results of the discussion show that factors such as product quality, price and market accessibility greatly influence the success of corn marketing. Apart from that, the use of information technology and digital marketing has also been proven to increase market reach and distribution efficiency. Based on these findings, recommended marketing strategies include strengthening distribution networks, improving product quality through training for farmers, and using digital platforms for marketing. By implementing this strategy, it is hoped that corn farmers can increase their income and contribute to national food security

Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market

Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market

Analysis of Marketing Channels And Marketing Efficiency of Corn Farmers (Zea Mays L) Tanjung Morawa

Purpose: This study aims to (1) identify the corn marketing channels, (2) determine the corn marketing margins, and (3) evaluate the efficiency of corn marketing in Tanjung Morawa District. Methodology: A sample of 30 corn farmers from three villages with corn farming areas was selected. A quantitative descriptive analysis was used to examine marketing channel patterns and analyze marketing costs and margins. Results: The study found that Marketing Channel I is widely used by farmers, who prefer selling corn directly to collectors. The marketing efficiency values for the first (I) and second (II) marketing channels are 10% and 16.6%, respectively. Findings: Both marketing channels are efficient. This indicates that the marketing channels involved in the marketing of shelled corn in the study area do not involve lengthy marketing institutions, resulting in low marketing costs and margins, and the selling price received by the final consumer is not much higher than the price received by the farmers. Novelty: This research provides insights into the efficiency of corn marketing channels, highlighting the benefits of shorter marketing pathways. Originality: The study offers a detailed analysis of marketing channel efficiency for corn, contributing to the understanding of effective agricultural product marketing. Conclusions: The corn marketing channels in Tanjung Morawa District are efficient, benefiting both farmers and consumers. Type of Paper: Empirical Research Article

Study on the current situation and influencing factors of corn import trade in China – based on the trade gravity model

Abstract With the rapid development of China’s economy and society, the income level of Chinese residents is increasing day by day, and the dietary consumption structure of domestic residents is constantly optimized and upgraded. The consumption demand for livestock products such as meat, eggs and milk, and corn starch industrial products is increasing day by day. Therefore, as the main raw material of feed industry and deep processing owners, the consumption scale of China corn market is constantly expanding. However, the corresponding domestic corn production scale has not expanded, and the domestic corn production presents an obvious problem of insufficient supply scale, which leads to a sharp and rapid increase in the number of corn imports in China, which seriously impacts the domestic corn market and affects China’s healthy development of corn industry. In recent years, the continuous spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has seriously affected the global grain production and trade. The fierce military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the two major grain exporting countries, has once again brought a serious adverse impact on the supply and price of the global grain market, resulting in an increase in the import cost of corn in China and a change in the import pattern of corn in China. In this regard, this study analyzes the current situation of corn production and import trade in China, and based on the relevant trade data between China and major corn importing countries from 2013 to 2022, establishes a trade gravity model to quantitatively evaluate the main factors affecting China’s corn import trade, and analyzes the trade potential of sample countries. It was found that in 2022, China’s import and export trade volume and trade value were 20.62 million tons and 7.11 billion US dollars, respectively, compared with 2013, trade volume and trade volume increased by 6.3 times. Statistics on the potential types of various trading countries showed that the proportion of potential countries was 14.2%, and Brazil had the greatest potential in China’s corn import trade. The proportion of potential expanding countries is about 71.4%, and Laos is a mature country with less opportunities for further development. In order to promote the benign development of the domestic corn industry and the development of China’s corn import trade, this paper puts forward a series of countermeasure suggestions based on the above research.

A Study of The Market of Fat Ox and Corn in Bahia/Brazil Via Weighted Networks By Ρ_DCCA

Objective: This article aims to analyze the connectivity of the fat ox and corn price indices in Bahia Theoretical Framework: The State of Bahia is economically and internationally important in terms of agricultural production in Brazil. Therefore, studying economic indicators and understanding their dynamics is necessary in increasingly competitive markets. Method: To this end, the daily price indices in the main regions of the State of Bahia will be investigated using network analysis weighted by the coefficient of , the formation of clusters, and degree distribution. Results and Discussion: Strong connectivity in the fat ox networks was found for all time scales and for corn only for large scales. The results allowed the unification of the fat ox market to be identified and the trend for price indices to move. Meanwhile, the corn market only has these characteristics for large scales, allowing for better short-term business opportunities. Research Implications: This research provides valuable information for developing public policies, local and international investors, researchers, and those interested in the subject. In addition, it can serve as a bridge to understanding the socioeconomic and environmental effects on the commodities market.

Research on the Mechanism of Corn Price Formation in China Based on the PLS-SEM Model.

After the cancellation of the temporary corn storage system in 2016, the price of corn in China returned to market regulation, resulting in increased price volatility. This study focuses on monthly data from April 2016 to March 2023 in China. The partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is employed to analyze the impact of corn supply and demand factors, substitute prices, monetary supply, international corn prices, and international energy prices on the volatility of corn prices in China. Results indicate that supply and demand factors are the most direct influencers of corn prices, with demand factors having the most significant impact. Monetary supply and substitute prices affect corn prices through the demand side. External factors mainly consist of international energy and corn prices. The impact of international energy on Chinese corn prices is achieved through international corn prices, which directly influence the prices in China. It is recommended to stabilize corn market prices by regulating corn supply and demand, to improve the monitoring and early warning mechanisms for international energy and corn prices, and to implement measures for prudent regulation of monetary supply.

Interpretable corn future price forecasting with multivariate time series

AbstractEfforts in corn future price forecasting and early warning play a vital role in guiding the high‐quality development of the agricultural economy. However, recent years have witnessed significant fluctuations in global corn future prices due to the impact of COVID‐19 and the escalating risks associated with geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate and efficient methods to forecast corn future prices. To address this challenge, a novel and comprehensive framework for explainable corn future price forecasting is designed. This framework takes into account multiple factors contributing to corn price volatility, including supply and demand dynamics, policy adjustments, international market shocks, global geopolitical risks, and investor concerns within the corn market. During the data processing stage, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is utilized to thoroughly explore the volatility characteristics of historical corn future prices. Additionally, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is employed to extract essential forecasting information from corn news data. To enhance interpretability, a novel JADE–TFT interpretable corn future price prediction model is proposed. This model combines adaptive differential evolution with optional external archiving (JADE) to intelligently and efficiently optimize the parameters of the temporal fusion transformers (TFTs). Furthermore, in the empirical study, the introduction of a global geopolitical risk coefficient, Baidu indices such as “corn” and “corn price,” and quantized corn news text features is shown to improve the accuracy of corn future price predictions. The proposed corn future price prediction framework contributes to the healthy development of the global grain futures market, thereby fostering the growth and well‐being of enterprises involved in the grain industry.

Forescating the Amount of Corn Production in North Sumatra Based on 2017 – 2021 Data Using The Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Method (Case Study of Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra )

North Sumatra Province has high potential in the management and marketing of corn (Zae Mays) crops. Cultivation of corn plants is a superior product where the largest income is obtained from the sale of commodities and their processing so that they can assist the government in improving the economy. This study aims to determine the yield of corn in North Sumatra Province in the coming year. Data collection for this study uses secondary data, namely primary data obtained from other parties which are generally made in the form of tables and diagrams. Data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra for corn production in 2017 was 1,741,257 tons, corn production in 2018 was 1,710,784 tons, corn production in 2019 was 1,960,424 tons, corn production in 2020 was 1,965. 444 tons, corn production in 2021 is 1,724,398 tons. To find out the increase in corn production, the consideration and comparison of the forecasting methods needed to minimize forecast errors that aim to approach reality are the single and double exponential smoothing methods with one parameter from Brown.

The comprehensive analysis of Googles stock using ARIMA model

Predicting stock prices has long been a subject of keen interest due to its financial implications and inherent complexity. The examination of existing literature suggests the need for a focused study encompassing a diverse spectrum of stocks within a specific sector. In this research, the author evaluates the efficacy of the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in forecasting Googles stock performance. The data used in this paper comes from the Chinese corn market price of 2018 to October 2023. The selection of the ARIMA model is based on its widespread acceptance and straightforward nature. This paper also explores how the accuracy of predictions is influenced by various historical data points. Simultaneously, the projections indicate that Googles stock is poised for continued growth in the upcoming weeks. This investigation aims to provide valuable insights into the stock markets behaviour, particularly within the context of Google, by leveraging the ARIMA models capabilities.

Guarantee Prices and Rural Property Tax on the White Corn Market

El objetivo fue estimar el impacto que tendrán los precios de garantía y de mercado del maíz blanco sobre el impuesto predial rústico para el 2023. Se utilizaron datos del Sistema de Información Agropecuaria y Pesquera (SIAP, 2022). El método utilizado es el deductivo y la investigación es de tipo explicativa y descriptiva. Los resultados indican que otorgar precios de garantía solo a productores de hasta 15 hectáreas y, excluir a los que sembraron más allá de esa superficie, afectará la recaudación. Entre los hallazgos se tiene la importancia de la siembra de maíz blanco para financiar obras públicas en comunidades rurales. Su originalidad radica relacionar la producción del maíz con el principal impuesto local de los gobiernos municipales: el predial. Por limitaciones no se pudo tener acceso al mecanismo de recaudación descentralizado, a partir de junio del presente año, para administrar dicho tributo.

Proizvodnja i stanje tržišta kukuruza po principima održivog razvoja

The constant pretension of people for food indicates the importance of agriculture and technology, and places them among the most important economic branches. Agriculture in the modern world ensures the general progress of society in the economic and cultural aspects and represents an economic branch that ensures the material survival of mankind. Given the fact that the world's population is growing faster and that the need for daily food is constantly increasing, it is neces sary to start as soon as possible with the implementation of sustainable methods in agricultural production at all levels. Corn, as an agricultural product, is of great importance for the sustainable development of agriculture and belongs to field wide-row crops, which belongs to the group of cereals. Cultivation of this culture is best achieved in climatic conditions, from moderate to tropical, where in the periods of the year when daily average temperatures do not fall below 15 °C, they belong to C-4 plants, which do not tolerate low temperatures. New varieties and hybrids of corn enable higher and more stable yields in different climates, which implies that the correct selection of hybrids is sustainable development, not only for the corn crop and its price as a product on the cereal market. The subject of the paper is to point out the importance of sustainable development for the corn market as an agricultural product. The aim of the work is to assess the possibility of sustainable corn production in order to create a competitive product for the foreign market, as well as the potential and advantages of Serbia for the implementation of new or corrected production technologies that are characterized by respect for the principles of sustainable development.

Unraveling Turkish agricultural market challenges: Consequences of COVID‐19, Russia–Ukraine conflict, and energy market dynamics

AbstractFor a significant global segment, the volatility in grain prices presents a substantial menace to food accessibility and security. In the global pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUW), numerous nations were caught off guard, exacerbating this predicament and leading to instances where citizens faced purchasing restrictions on sunflower oil. This study employs the VAR (1)‐Asymmetric BEKK‐Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model to assess the extent of risks stemming from the pandemic and RUW in critical Turkish agricultural commodity markets: namely, wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil. The analysis reveals that the conditional variances of their return series are positively influenced by short‐ and long‐term uncertainties. With the escalations in the global oil market, the enduring hazards within these selected markets in Türkiye have intensified concurrently. The COVID‐19 pandemic has induced a decrease in long‐term uncertainty within wheat and barley markets, wherein noteworthy spillover risks in the barley, corn, and sunflower oil markets have exacerbated risks in the corn market. Empirical findings imply that COVID‐19 and RUW disrupt the agricultural supply chain, leading to impediments in food provisioning and security. The outcomes provide valuable insights to fortify policies, guarantee consistent access to plant‐based protein, and address nutritional insecurity within the nation. These policy measures align with the initiatives undertaken by the United Nations and Türkiye, which actively engage in establishing a grain corridor to facilitate Ukraine's grain exports, thereby ensuring food security and safeguarding agricultural lands. [EconLit Citations: A1, E3, G1, Q0, Q1, Q2, Q4].

Analysis of corn marketing efficiency in sribatara village buton district

Corn in Indonesia is grown by farmers with a narrow area of land and different marketing channels. The type of marketing channels chosen by farmers will have an impact on marketing margins and efficiency. Therefore this research was conducted with the aim of 1) analyzing the types of corn marketing channels in Sribatara Village and 2) analyzing marketing margins and corn marketing efficiency in Sribatara Village. The research method used is a survey method with the aim (sampling purpose) of interviewing traders directly. There are two marketing channels for corn, namely type I starts from farmers to village collectors and continues to wholesalers in Baubau city, while type II starts from farmers and continues directly to wholesalers in Baubau city. Collector traders perform the functions of buying, selling, transporting, and financing as well as market information functions. The results of the analysis of marketing margins, costs, and profits in type I and type II marketing channels each provide different benefits. Both marketing channels provide the same total margin of Rp. 3,000/Kg. The selling price at the farmer level is Rp. 4,000/Kg, while the selling price at the wholesaler level is Rp. 7,000/Kg. The difference between the two marketing channels is that there is a long marketing chain before the corn reaches the wholesalers in Baubau City. The results of the analysis of marketing efficiency for this type obtained a value of 57%, and marketing efficiency for type II marketing channels was 57%. This efficiency value indicates that the corn marketing system in Sribatara Village is efficient.

Influencing factors analysis of corn price fluctuation in shaanxi province, CHINA

Corn is one of the most important grain crops in China, and also in Shaanxi Province. In order to master the changing law of corn market, realize reasonable regulation and control, and promote the stable development of the market, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the influencing factors of corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province. Based on the data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2021, in the present study, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province was explored by using factor analysis method. Eight indexes including corn yield, production cost, disaster-affected area, disposable income of rural residents, disposable income of urban residents, corn demand, wheat price index and consumer price were selected as factors affecting corn price fluctuation. Results showed that the disaster area and corn demand were the main factors affecting the corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province, and the disposable income of urban and rural residents had little impact on the corn price fluctuation. Governments and industry groups can therefore take preventive measures to limit the impact of major climate events on corn markets and economies. It also assesses the appropriate proportion of corn used for feed and energy production to ensure adequate supply and stable prices. Bangladesh J. Bot. 52(2): 607-612, 2023 (June) Special

Influencing factors analysis of corn price fluctuation in shaanxi province, CHINA

Corn is one of the most important grain crops in China, and also in Shaanxi Province. In order to master the changing law of corn market, realize reasonable regulation and control, and promote the stable development of the market, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the influencing factors of corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province. Based on the data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2021, in the present study, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province was explored by using factor analysis method. Eight indexes including corn yield, production cost, disaster-affected area, disposable income of rural residents, disposable income of urban residents, corn demand, wheat price index and consumer price were selected as factors affecting corn price fluctuation. Results showed that the disaster area and corn demand were the main factors affecting the corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province, and the disposable income of urban and rural residents had little impact on the corn price fluctuation. Governments and industry groups can therefore take preventive measures to limit the impact of major climate events on corn markets and economies. It also assesses the appropriate proportion of corn used for feed and energy production to ensure adequate supply and stable prices. Bangladesh J. Bot. 52(2): 607-612, 2023 (June) Special

Does the Policy of Decoupled Subsidies Improve the Agricultural Economic Resilience?—Evidence from China’s Main Corn Producing Regions

Various forms of agricultural subsidy policies often have a significant impact on the development of the agricultural economy and also shape the differentiated spatial pattern of regional agricultural economic resilience, while research on the evolution process of agricultural economic resilience and its influencing mechanisms is still very scarce. This study is based on the impact of China’s cancellation of the temporary corn storage policy on corn prices in 2016. By using an economic resilience analysis framework, we selected the indicators of total agricultural output value and disposable income of farmers to measure the agricultural economic resilience of various cities in Jilin Province and analyzed the characteristics and causes of the spatio-temporal change in agricultural economic resilience in Jilin Province from 2008 to 2021. The results show the following: (1) The transition from price and subsidy integration policy to decoupled subsidy policy helps to shape stronger regional agricultural economic resilience, but due to factors such as farmer policy dependence, low international corn prices, severe oversupply in the domestic corn market, and the suddenness of policy changes, there was a short-term decline in agricultural economic resilience in Jilin Province in the early stage of the decoupled subsidy policy (2016–2017), which rapidly increased after 2017. (2) The agricultural economic resilience levels of cities in Jilin Province showed different spatial differentiation characteristics at different stages within the study period, and the central region, as an important corn production area in Jilin Province, had significant changes in agricultural economic resilience. (3) During the execution of the price and subsidy integration policy, the enhancement of agricultural input capacity and agricultural output capacity helped to improve regional agricultural economic resilience; during the execution of the decoupled subsidy policy, the government’s support for agriculture and the potential of rural markets had a significant impact on the improvement of agricultural economic resilience. At the same time, the interaction and enhancement effect between influencing factors also had a profound impact on agricultural economic resilience.

FORECASTING THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF FODDER CORN PRODUCERS

Global food security is based on the uninterrupted supply of basic foodstuffs. In their structure, a significant place is given to fodder corn, used for fattening livestock and poultry and therefore exerts a significant influence on the production of meat, milk and eggs. Ukraine occupies an essential position in the world production and export of corn along with the USA, Brazil and Argentina. Components of export potential are unique for each country. At the same time, the growing global demand for fodder corn poses a task for producers to increase productivity, and therefore the production volumes of this crop. Goal. The purpose of the article is to analyze and build predictive models of export volumes to determine the distribution of the world feed corn market of the leading countries, taking into account the current situation related to military aggression in Ukraine. Method. In the process of the research, regression analysis was used to identify the dependence between the level of export volume and indicators of productivity and production prices for the studied countries; the Holt method - was for building predictive models, the results of which are used to forecast the volume of exports based on the constructed multiple regression equation; statistical analysis. The results. In the process of achieving leadership positions in the world fodder corn market, the producers of the studied countries underwent significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the process of crop production. Ukraine has significant potential for increasing the production and export of fodder corn. Considering the military actions in Ukraine, which complicated logistics processes, the study considers three scenarios: ideal - Ukrainian corn producers have the proper conditions for the production and transportation of corn; negative - Ukraine cannot export goods due to a lack of proper conditions for its production; limited - the reduction of cultivated areas, improper observance of agricultural technologies and limitations of logistical capabilities limit the production and export potential of the country. Scientific novelty. The factors affecting the export potential of the leading countries in the production of fodder corn have been identified. A forecast of productivity and production volumes has been developed. A scenario analysis was carried out. Practical significance. The value of the research lies in the development of theoretical and methodological provisions for assessing the country's export potential.

Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

AbstractIn this research, we use econometric analysis to estimate the impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on international wheat and corn prices. Using these results, we assess the economic value of the treaty to the global food system, as well as the regional distribution of the associated welfare savings. We find that the Russian Invasion created economic costs of approximately $116.05 billion in the global wheat and corn markets. In the international wheat market, the Black Sea Grain Initiative reduced prices by 7.9%, offsetting approximately $21.48 billion of these costs. The largest winners from the Initiative outside Ukraine are primarily in the developing world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not observe any economically meaningful impacts of the Initiative in the international corn market.