FORECASTING THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF FODDER CORN PRODUCERS

Abstract

Global food security is based on the uninterrupted supply of basic foodstuffs. In their structure, a significant place is given to fodder corn, used for fattening livestock and poultry and therefore exerts a significant influence on the production of meat, milk and eggs. Ukraine occupies an essential position in the world production and export of corn along with the USA, Brazil and Argentina. Components of export potential are unique for each country. At the same time, the growing global demand for fodder corn poses a task for producers to increase productivity, and therefore the production volumes of this crop. Goal. The purpose of the article is to analyze and build predictive models of export volumes to determine the distribution of the world feed corn market of the leading countries, taking into account the current situation related to military aggression in Ukraine. Method. In the process of the research, regression analysis was used to identify the dependence between the level of export volume and indicators of productivity and production prices for the studied countries; the Holt method - was for building predictive models, the results of which are used to forecast the volume of exports based on the constructed multiple regression equation; statistical analysis. The results. In the process of achieving leadership positions in the world fodder corn market, the producers of the studied countries underwent significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the process of crop production. Ukraine has significant potential for increasing the production and export of fodder corn. Considering the military actions in Ukraine, which complicated logistics processes, the study considers three scenarios: ideal - Ukrainian corn producers have the proper conditions for the production and transportation of corn; negative - Ukraine cannot export goods due to a lack of proper conditions for its production; limited - the reduction of cultivated areas, improper observance of agricultural technologies and limitations of logistical capabilities limit the production and export potential of the country. Scientific novelty. The factors affecting the export potential of the leading countries in the production of fodder corn have been identified. A forecast of productivity and production volumes has been developed. A scenario analysis was carried out. Practical significance. The value of the research lies in the development of theoretical and methodological provisions for assessing the country's export potential.