Marine Climate Change Research Articles

Study on diel migration of zooplankton in the Arctic surrounding seas during summer season based on mathematical statistics

Marine zooplankton have diel vertical migration behavior and play a key role in the transport of surface organic compounds to the deep ocean, which is of great significance in studying marine climate change. In this research, the manual visual interpretation method was used to preprocess the biological backscattering intensity data of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) during the eighth Arctic expedition. Results showed that the extracted vertical migration trajectory was in good agreement with the variation of backscattering intensity data. The amount of zooplankton in the Arctic Ocean is significantly lower than that in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, and sea ice cover has a significant effect on the diel vertical migration of zooplankton. Characteristics of zooplankton distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean were analyzed based on mathematical statistical methods. The results also prove that the backscattering intensity of -90dB can distinguish scattering layer and water, and that of -78dB can distinguish general scatters and zooplankton. There are two significant concentrations of zooplankton in the Atlantic Ocean which were located at the surface and at depths of 350-450 m, respectively.

Future distribution patterns of nine cuttlefish species under climate change

While most coastal communities are expected to, or have been, negatively impacted by climate change, cephalopods have generally thrived with shifting ocean conditions. However, whilst benefitting from the same physiological flexibility that characterizes cephalopods in general, cuttlefish have depth constraints imposed by the presence of a cuttlebone and are limited to specific locations by their particularly low vagility. To evaluate the potential effects of marine climate change on cuttlefish, Species Distribution Models (SDM) were applied to nine species of genus Sepiidae to assess potential changes to their future distribution (2050 and 2100), under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). We show that future cuttlefish habitat suitability and distribution will potentially decrease. The species with the most extreme impacts, Doratosepion braggi (Verco, 1907), was observed to decline as much as 30.77% in average habitat suitability (from present 55.26% to 24.48% at RCP 8.5 in 2100), to Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758 with a low maximum decrease of 1.64% in average habitat suitability (from present 59.62% to 57.98% at RCP 8.5 in 2100). Increases in habitat suitability were projected mostly at higher latitudes, while habitat decrease was predicted for the tropical regions and lower latitudinal limits of species’ distributions. As their habitats decrease in terms of habitat suitability, cuttlefish may not benefit from future changes in climate. Additionally, as potential “sea canaries” for coastal ecosystems, we may see many species and habitats from these systems affected by climate change, particularly in tropical regions.

A bibliometric review on marine economy: Current status, development and future directions

The growth and management of the marine economy have received significant attention since the United Nations launched the "Our Ocean, Our Future: Call for Action" initiative. However, a lack of systematic review in the field of the marine economy has hindered progress. This study aims to address this issue by offering a unified knowledge analysis framework with bibliometric technology. We comprehensively analyze 6002 records from the Web of Science using software such as CiteSpace, VOSviewer, and ArcGIS for visualization analysis. This paper has drawn some interesting findings. Firstly, the development of the marine economy has experienced three stages: enlightenment, foundation and rapid growth, with the development process showing more and more apparent geographical cluster characteristics. Secondly, "Sustainable development", "Marine climate change", "Marine ecosystems government" and "Comprehensive performance evaluation" are identified as the mature clusters; meanwhile, "Sea level change", "Marine pollution treatment" and "Sustainable energy exploitation" are potential forefront clusters in marine economy. Based on this, the evolution of knowledge structure about marine economy is found, which changed from discussing the utilization of elements to studying the relationship between them to perform collaborative governance. Finally, this paper concluded by identifying research frontiers and future directions for further study, which includes the development of emerging industries, integration of marine and regional economy, protection of marine ecological and so on. This study can help researchers, policymakers and other participants better understand the knowledge structure and research frontiers of marine economy, and discover the future directions.

Effect of long-term fertilisation of Calcisols on organic carbon sequestration in marine climate in Estonia

ABSTRACT The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of long-term (45-year) fertilization of the crop rotation on soil organic carbon concentration (SOC%) changes in different periods of the experiment and its trend under conditions of more northerly marine climate changes. In this work, the data of the long-term NPK fertilization experiment of sandy loam Calcisols located in Northern Estonia (longitude 58.584816, latitude 24.422128) have been used. The crop rotation was divided into six blocks: potato-spring barley-spring barley under sowing with forage grasses – 1y and 2y forage grasses-winter rye. Different combinations of mineral (N 40—180; P 18—54; K 50—105 kg ha−1) and organic (manure (FYM) 30 and 60 Mg ha−1) fertilizers were used in the study. Two periods were observed: the last 20y vegetation period was 10% warmer and 15% less rainy than the earlier period. Under conditions of climate warming, the yield of barley and potatoes increased the most, especially with manure application. SOC% increased from 2.01 to 2.04 under the influence of mineral fertilizers, and from 2.08 to 2.22 with mineral + FYM. The soil is sustainable if manure is used at least 5–10 Mg ha−1 per y−1.

Atmosphere-Ocean Processes Governing Inflow to the Northern Caribbean Sea

Near-surface currents entering the northern Caribbean from the Atlantic are described using ocean reanalysis at monthly to daily timescales, underpinned by satellite data assimilation. Statistical analyses involved spatial clustering into current vector modes with associated time scores for quantifying spectral power and regression onto atmospheric fields. Inflow across the Anegada, Mona, Windward (AMW) Passages peaks at ~100 m depth at ~0.2 m/s during summer and pulses at periods of 45, 100, and 365 days, and at 3, 6.5 years. The intra-seasonal periods may relate to Madden–Julian Oscillations and westward ocean Rossby waves, while inter-annual periods associate with regional climate anomalies. An empirical orthogonal function analysis demonstrates that AMW inflow varies across multiple timescales and is enhanced when the subtropical high-pressure ridge penetrates into the western Caribbean. A case study reveals key features during a surge of inflow to the northern Caribbean. Marine climate change involves heat advected poleward by currents along the western edge of the tropical Atlantic, fed through the Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the study of inflows garners wide interest.

Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of the ‘Octopus vulgaris species complex’

IntroductionHistorically considered to be a single cosmopolitan species, the so called Octopus vulgaris species complex (OVSC) is now recognized to be a group of (at least) six cryptic species: O. americanus (in the west Atlantic), O. vulgaris (in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea), O. aff. vulgaris (in the region of South Africa), O. tetricus (southeastern Oceania), O. sinensis (northwestern Pacific), and O. djinda (western Australia). The potentially different environmental preferences of this highly cryptic species complex may result in distinct consequences under future environmental conditions.MethodsThe present study employed species distribution models (SDM) using MaxEnt to investigate potential changes in habitat suitability and geographical distribution of the OVSC in the future (i.e., 2050, and 2100), across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, CMIP5).ResultsDifferential responses were observed in the OVSC species analyzed. Specifically, O. vulgaris and O. tetricus exhibited a severe loss in distribution across their predicted range; O. americanus exhibited projected extirpation close to the equator, with limited expansion towards the poles; O. aff. vulgaris was projected to lose half of its current distribution; O. sinensis exhibited moderate losses, with projected increases in northern areas; and finally, O. djinda exhibited limited losses to its distribution. Except for O. sinensis, increasing RCP severity exacerbated changes in mean habitat suitability and projected distribution gains and losses.DiscussionUltimately, this study provides information on the potential biogeographical effects of marine climate change on a key worldwide ecological and economic resource to further disentangle the effects over each OVSC species, with the goal of assisting toward the sustainable management of octopus species at the global scale.

Aerosol Property Analysis Based on Ground-Based Lidar in Sansha, China

Marine aerosol is one of the most important natural aerosols. It has a significant impact on marine climate change, biochemical cycling and marine ecosystems. Previous studies on marine aerosols, especially in the South China Sea, were carried out by satellite and shipborne measurements. The above methods have drawbacks, such as low temporal–spatial resolution and signal interference. However, lidar has high accuracy and high temporal–spatial resolution, so it is suitable for high-precision long-term observations. In this work, we obtain marine aerosol data using Mie Lidar in Sansha, an island in the South Chain Sea. Firstly, by comparing boundary layer height (BLH) between Sansha and Hefei, we found that Sansha’s boundary layer height has significant differences with that of inland China. Secondly, we compare the aerosol extinction coefficients and their variation with height in Sansha and Hefei. Finally, we obtain hourly averaged aerosol optical depth at Sansha and explore its relation with weather. To analyze the AOD–weather relation, we select three meteorological factors (sea surface temperature, mean sea level pressure and 10 m u-component of wind) based on their feature importance, which is determined by random forest regression. We also analyze the relationship between AOD and the above meteorological factors in each season separately. The results show that there is a strong relation between the meteorological factors and AOD in spring and summer, while there is no clear correlation in fall and winter. These analyses can provide valid data for future researches on marine aerosols in the South China Sea.

Impacts of Low Oxygen on Marine Life: Neglected, but a Crucial Priority for Research.

AbstractGlobal ocean O2 content has varied significantly across the eons, both shaping and being shaped by the evolutionary history of life on planet Earth. Indeed, past O2 fluctuations have been associated with major extinctions and the reorganization of marine biota. Moreover, its most recent iteration-now anthropogenically driven-represents one of the most prominent challenges for both marine ecosystems and human societies, with ocean deoxygenation being regarded as one of the main drivers of global biodiversity loss. Yet ocean deoxygenation has received far less attention than concurrent environmental variables of marine climate change, namely, ocean warming and acidification, particularly in the field of experimental marine ecology. Together with the lack of consistent criteria defining gradual and acute changes in O2 content, a general lack of multifactorial studies featuring all three drivers and their interactions prevents an adequate interpretation of the potential effects of extreme and gradual deoxygenation. We present a comprehensive overview of the interplay between O2 and marine life across space and time and discuss the current knowledge gaps and future steps for deoxygenation research. This work may also contribute to the ongoing call for an integrative perspective on the combined effects of these three drivers of change for marine organisms and ecosystems worldwide.

Marine climate change risks to biodiversity and society in the ROPME Sea Area

The subtropical ROPME Sea Area (RSA), comprising the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea, is a heavily exploited sea region that experiences extreme environmental conditions, and for which climate change is expected to further impact marine ecosystems and coastal communities, sectors and industries. Climate change risk assessments provide a valuable tool to inform decision-making and adaptation planning through identifying and prioritising climate risks and/or opportunities. Using the first UK Climate Change Risk Assessment as an example, a marine climate change risk assessment was undertaken for the marine and coastal environment of the RSA for the first time. Through an extensive literature review and a workshop involving regional experts, marine and coastal climate change risks were identified, scored and prioritised. A total of 45 risks were identified, which spanned two key themes: ‘Risks to Biodiversity’ and ‘Risks to Economy and Society’. Of these, 13 were categorised as ‘severe’, including degradation of coral reefs and their associated ecological assemblages, shifts in the distribution of wild-capture fisheries resources, changes to phytoplankton primary productivity, impacts on coastal communities, threats to infrastructure and industries, and impacts on operations and safety in maritime transport. The diversity of risks identified and their transboundary nature highlight that climate change adaptation responses will require coordinated action and cooperation at multiple scales across the RSA. This risk assessment provides a crucial baseline for a largely overlooked geographic area, that can be used to underpin future decision-making and adaptation planning on climate change, and serve as a ‘blueprint’ for similar assessments for other regional shared seas.

Climate change effects on the ecophysiology and ecological functioning of an offshore wind farm artificial hard substrate community

In the effort towards a decarbonised future, the local effects of a proliferating offshore wind farm (OWF) industry add to and interact with the global effects of marine climate change. This study aimed to quantify potential ecophysiological effects of ocean warming and acidification and to estimate and compare the cumulative clearance potential of suspended food items by OWF epifauna under current and future climate conditions. To this end, this study combined ecophysiological responses to ocean warming and acidification of three dominant colonising species on OWF artificial hard substrates (the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, the tube-building amphipod Jassa herdmani and the plumose anemone Metridium senile). In general, mortality, respiration rate and clearance rate increased during 3- to 6-week experimental exposures across all three species, except for M. senile, who exhibited a lower clearance rate in the warmed treatments (+3 °C) and an insensitivity to lowered pH (−0.3 pH units) in terms of survival and respiration rate. Ocean warming and acidification affected growth antagonistically, with elevated temperature being beneficial for M. edulis and lowered pH being beneficial for M. senile. The seawater volume potentially cleared from suspended food particles by this AHS colonising community increased significantly, extending the affected distance around an OWF foundation by 9.2% in a future climate scenario. By using an experimental multi-stressor approach, this study thus demonstrates how ecophysiology underpins functional responses to climate change in these environments, highlighting for the first time the integrated, cascading potential effects of OWFs and climate change on the marine ecosystem.

Protection of the Marine Environment

Abstract The general obligation to protect and preserve the marine environment is contained in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Increasingly, marine issues are addressed in regional or multilateral trade agreements, including the covered agreements of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This article examines selected legal developments, such as provisions in regional trade agreements on marine capture fisheries, marine litter and waste management infrastructure. Rules on the use of trade measures to eliminate harmful fishing practices, and the prohibition of certain subsidies, are also explored. The article calls for attention to the impact of these developments on dispute settlement between states under UNCLOS, support for marine protected areas, and the capacity for regime interaction between relevant bodies. These issues have relevance for the conservation of marine living resources as well as other issues relating to the protection of the marine environment, including marine plastics and climate change.

Who wins or loses matters: Strongly interacting consumers drive seagrass resistance under ocean acidification

Global stressors are increasingly altering ecosystem resistance, resilience, and functioning by reorganizing vital species interactions. However, our predictive understanding of these changes is hindered by failures to consider species-specific functional roles and stress responses within communities. Stressor-driven loss or reduced performance of strongly interacting species may generate abrupt shifts in ecosystem states and functions. Yet, empirical support for this prediction is scarce, especially in marine climate change research. Using a marine assemblage comprising a habitat-forming seagrass (Phyllospadix torreyi), its algal competitor, and three consumer species (algal grazers) with potentially different functional roles and pH tolerance, we investigated how ocean acidification (OA) may, directly and indirectly, alter community resistance. In the field and laboratory, hermit crabs (Pagurus granosimanus and P. hirsutiusculus) and snails (Tegula funebralis) displayed distinct microhabitat use, with hermit crabs more frequently grazing in the area of high algal colonization (i.e., surfgrass canopy). In mesocosms, this behavioral difference led to hermit crabs exerting ~2 times greater per capita impact on algal epiphyte biomass than snails. Exposure to OA variably affected the grazers: snails showed reduced feeding and growth under extreme pH (7.3 and 7.5), whereas hermit crabs (P. granosimanus) maintained a similar grazing rate under all pH levels (pH 7.3, 7.5, 7.7, and 7.95). Epiphyte biomass increased more rapidly under extreme OA (pH 7.3 and 7.5), but natural densities of snails and hermit crabs prevented algal overgrowth irrespective of pH treatments. Finally, grazers and acidification additively increased surfgrass productivity and delayed the shoot senescence. Hence, although OA impaired the function of the most abundant consumers (snails), strongly interacting and pH-tolerant species (hermit crabs) largely maintained the top-down pressure to facilitate seagrass dominance. Our study highlights significant within-community variation in species functional and response traits and shows that this variation has important ecosystem consequences under anthropogenic stressors.

Retraction Note: Ocean surface temperature simulation based on big data and accuracy of English translation of foreign trade vocabulary

The slight change of sea surface temperature (SST) may affect the marine climate, the coastal climate, and the distribution of aquatic resources. Therefore, in order to understand marine climate change and aquatic resources, long-term investigation of SST change tendency is particularly important. Satellite remote sensing is one of the effective means to monitor sea surface temperature. In the face of a large number of remote sensing data sources, it is very important to choose an appropriate multi-source remote sensing data fusion method to improve the inversion accuracy and coverage of sea surface temperature. Big data technology is becoming an important force to promote the development of national economy. In the process of accelerating the penetration of big data technology into various fields of economy and society, it promotes the change of production mode and greatly improves productivity. After the accuracy of ensemble Kalman filter in sea surface temperature fusion is verified by sea surface temperature simulation based on big data, the fused SST is processed into abnormal form and decomposed by empirical orthogonal function, and its spatial and temporal distribution characteristics are analyzed. Based on the above big data, big data technology makes the business English translation industry usher in earth-shaking changes. Massive translation information based on big data platform can not only improve the efficiency of business English translation, but also improve its translation accuracy. However, due to the short time of big data technology, cultural and pragmatic differences, and other factors, the personal development of business English translators is limited. Therefore, by combining the basic connotation and existing problems of business English translation, this paper puts forward strategies to improve translation skills from two aspects of the main body of the teacher and the main body of the learner, in order to improve the accuracy of English translation of foreign trade vocabulary.

S2P3-R v2.0: computationally efficient modelling of shelf seas on regional to global scales

Abstract. The marine impacts of climate change on our societies will be largely felt through coastal waters and shelf seas. These impacts involve sectors as diverse as tourism, fisheries and energy production. Projections of future marine climate change come from global models. Modelling at the global scale is required to capture the feedbacks and large-scale transport of physical properties such as heat, which occur within the climate system, but global models currently cannot provide detail in the shelf seas. Version 2 of the regional implementation of the Shelf Sea Physics and Primary Production (S2P3-R v2.0) model bridges the gap between global projections and local shelf-sea impacts. S2P3-R v2.0 is a highly simplified coastal shelf model, computationally efficient enough to be run across the shelf seas of the whole globe. Despite the simplified nature of the model, it can display regional skill comparable to state-of-the-art models, and at the scale of the global (excluding high latitudes) shelf seas it can explain >50 % of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in ∼60 % of grid cells and >80 % of interannual variability in ∼20 % of grid cells. The model can be run at any resolution for which the input data can be supplied, without expert technical knowledge, and using a modest off-the-shelf computer. The accessibility of S2P3-R v2.0 places it within reach of an array of coastal managers and policy makers, allowing it to be run routinely once set up and evaluated for a region under expert guidance. The computational efficiency and relative scientific simplicity of the tool make it ideally suited to educational applications. S2P3-R v2.0 is set up to be driven directly with output from reanalysis products or daily atmospheric output from climate models such as those which contribute to the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, making it a valuable tool for semi-dynamical downscaling of climate projections. The updates introduced into version 2.0 of this model are primarily focused around the ability to geographical relocate the model, model usability and speed but also scientific improvements. The value of this model comes from its computational efficiency, which necessitates simplicity. This simplicity leads to several limitations, which are discussed in the context of evaluation at regional and global scales.

Another Decade of Marine Climate Change Experiments: Trends, Progress and Knowledge Gaps

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant driver of change in marine ecosystems globally. To improve mechanistic understanding of the impact of climate-related stressors, experimental work on marine organisms has intensified in recent decades. A previous synthesis paper published nearly a decade ago established that Marine Climate Change Experiments (MCCEs) published from 2000–2009 were primarily laboratory-based and focused on single stressors and individual focal temperate species. Using consistent methodology, we compared the 2000–2009 analysis to experiments published in the following decade (i.e. 2010–2019) to assess recent trends in MCCEs and to determine to what extent knowledge gaps and research priorities have been addressed. The search returned 854 papers, vs. 110 from the 2000s, indicating considerable intensification of research effort and output. We found again that single species studies were most common, particularly with benthic invertebrates as model organisms, and that laboratory-based research comprised over 90% of all studies. However, multiple stressor experiments increased substantially, where tests for interaction effects between ocean acidification (i.e., increased pCO2) and warming were particularly common. Furthermore, a wider range of model species were studied and more community-level experiments were conducted in the 2010s compared with the 2000s. In addition, studies on behavioral responses, transgenerational effects, genetic adaptation and extreme climatic events increased markedly. These recent advances in MCCEs have undoubtedly improved understanding of how climate change will affect marine organisms and the communities and ecosystems they underpin. Going forward, biases in the type and distribution of model organisms should be addressed to enhance general understanding of responses to environmental change. Similarly, experiments should manipulate a greater number and range of climate and non-climate factors and increase the number of target organisms to increase realism. Finally, where possible, further research should be combined and contextualized with field-based experiments and observations to better reflect the complexity of marine ecosystems and yield more representative responses to ocean climate change.

Achieving sustainable and climate‐resilient fisheries requires marine ecosystem forecasts to include fish condition

AbstractMarine ecosystem forecasting is an important innovation in fisheries science with considerable value for industry and management, providing new data‐driven means of predicting the distribution and availability of commercially exploited fish stocks over a range of timescales, including near‐real‐time and seasonal. Marine ecosystem forecasting is rapidly advancing as a field, yet tools produced for fisheries to date focus primarily on predicting species distributions. The next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting products could be enhanced by also incorporating predictions of biological characteristics of fish caught, such as body condition and epidemiological status, thereby expanding the utility of these methods beyond predicting distribution alone. Improving the biological dimensions of marine ecosystem forecasting could allow for optimization of efficiencies in wild‐capture fisheries by minimizing discarding and waste and maximizing the value of landed fish. These advancements are of direct benefit to industry and management, address several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to fisheries sustainability and have the potential to support the maintenance of global food and micronutrient security under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here, we describe the current state of the art in marine ecosystem forecasting; review the physical‐biological linkages that underlie variability in the body condition of commercially valuable fish and shellfish with particular reference to marine climate change; and outline key considerations for the next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting tools for wild‐capture fisheries.

Marine climate change over the eastern Agulhas Bank of South Africa

Abstract. The rate of change in the marine environment over the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa (32–37∘ S, 20–30∘ E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time span: ∼ 1∘ datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ∼ 0.5∘ datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly (0.05 ∘C yr−1 since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a locally stronger Agulhas Current have intensified nearshore upwelling (−0.03 ∘C yr−1). The subtropical ridge is gradually moving poleward, leading to a drier climate.

Marine invertebrate migrations trace climate change over 450 million years

Marine invertebrate migrations trace climate change over 450 million years

Golden carbon of Sargassum forests revealed as an opportunity for climate change mitigation

Marine climate change mitigation initiatives have recently attracted a great deal of interest in the role of natural carbon sinks, particularly on coastal systems. Brown seaweeds of the genus Sargassum are the largest canopy-forming algae in tropical and subtropical environments, with a wide global distribution on rocky reefs and as floating stands. Because these algae present high amounts of biomass, we suggest their contribution is relevant for global carbon stocks and consequently for mitigating climate change as CO2 remover. We modelled global distributions and quantified carbon stocks as above-ground biomass (AGB) with machine learning algorithms and climate data. Sargassum AGB totaled 13.1 Pg C at the global scale, which is a significant amount of carbon, comparable to other key marine ecosystems, such as mangrove forests, salt marshes and seagrass meadows. However, specific techniques related to bloom production and management, or the utilization of biomass for biomaterials, should be fostered.

Environmental drivers and indicators of change in habitat and fish assemblages within a climate change hotspot

Climate-driven environmental change is predicted to accelerate over the coming decades. Anticipating the ecological consequences requires a fundamental understanding of how environmental variables influence key habitats and species. Southeastern Australia is a marine climate change hotspot, characterised by rapidly increasing sea surface temperatures, strengthening currents and increasing storm frequency. To understand ecosystem responses to environmental drivers in this region, and to anticipate future climate-driven change, we examined the spatial distribution and environmental relationships of key marine habitats, fish assemblages, and the ecologically important urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii along ∼1000 km of reef off southeastern Australia using towed video transects. We also identified potential biological indicators of climate-driven changes to rocky reef ecosystems, based on ecological importance, ease of measurement, and sensitivity to one or more climate-affected environmental drivers. Significant latitudinal gradients were identified for biota, with habitats, fish assemblages and urchin densities all varying latitudinally with sea surface temperature and current strength. Wave energy and distance offshore were identified as drivers of biota at local-scales (100–1000 m). These results indicate that climate-driven changes to various environmental factors will alter the composition and distribution of marine biota, at a variety of scales. The average thermal niche for fish assemblages varied significantly with changing mean sea surface temperature and may be a sentinel indicator of climate-driven changes. Coverage of the kelp Ecklonia radiata, densities of the urchin C. rodgersii, and coral cover were also confirmed as potential valuable biological indicators of climate-driven changes. These indicators, and the widespread baseline data assembled in this study, will facilitate detection of future changes to rocky reef ecosystems in southeastern Australia.