Abstract
Abstract. The rate of change in the marine environment over the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa (32–37∘ S, 20–30∘ E) is studied using reanalysis observations for 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections for 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time span: ∼ 1∘ datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ∼ 0.5∘ datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures offshore are warming rapidly (0.05 ∘C yr−1 since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a locally stronger Agulhas Current have intensified nearshore upwelling (−0.03 ∘C yr−1). The subtropical ridge is gradually moving poleward, leading to a drier climate.
Highlights
The marine climate of the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa is shaped by the continental plateau and subtropical latitude
The Agulhas Current meanders a few times per year (Goschen and Schumann, 1990; Rouault and Penven, 2011), while the midlatitude jet stream meanders a few times per month, advecting coastal lows and continental shelf waves along the shelf (Jury et al, 1990; Schumann and Brink, 1990)
Winds have accelerated in the South Atlantic and south Indian anticyclones as well as over the interior of southern Africa, but in the southern midlatitudes a westerly trend is noted over the 20th century
Summary
The marine climate of the eastern Agulhas Bank along the south coast of South Africa is shaped by the continental plateau and subtropical latitude. The Agulhas Current meanders a few times per year (Goschen and Schumann, 1990; Rouault and Penven, 2011), while the midlatitude jet stream meanders a few times per month, advecting coastal lows and continental shelf waves along the shelf (Jury et al, 1990; Schumann and Brink, 1990). Amidst these rapid changes are rising sea levels (Mather et al, 2009) and longer summers
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