Management Of Complex Systems Research Articles

Using social network methodological approach to better understand human–wildlife interactions

Human-wildlife interactions (HWI) are present in areas where wild animals and humans compete for limited space, sometimes resulting in potentially harmful conflicts on both sides. The upper Prahova Valley within the central Carpathian range of Romania represents an area where interactions between humans and wildlife can still be found, but potentially conflicting due to the presence of both large intact natural habitats and increasing human pressure over the environment. In our study, we hypothesize that an adequate understanding of the HWI problem involves analyses on landscape pattern, natural or human induced triggering factors, and local stakeholders’ perception of the phenomenon including the measures they consider suitable for optimizing their interactions with wild animals. Therefore, the goal of our paper was to analyse the characteristics of the HWI phenomenon in the upper Prahova Valley, based on exploring the local stakeholders’ perspective. The study methodology consists of three steps: (i) applying 450 questionnaires to local stakeholders in order to extract HWI data; (ii) detecting the interconnection between various types of HWI and the perception of local people, using statistical and network approaches; and (iii) develop a set of recommendations which are applicable at both, local and regional decisional level in order to decrease the negative impact of HWI, enhance wildlife conservation strategies and promote a sustainable interactions with humans and mitigate potential conflicts that occur between humans and wildlife. The results indicate that the brown bear, wild boar and red fox were constantly increasing in HWI after 1990, while interactions with Eurasian wolf, stone marten, European polecat, roe deer and mountain viper were usually scarcer. The brown bear and wild boar were the prior species involved in conflict interactions with humans, such as the destruction of fences, orchards, or gardens. The bear was the only wildlife responsible for non-fatal human attacks. Locals consider the lack of wildlife food supply by the forest staff and the deficient forest management practices after 1990 to be the main triggering factors of these negative HWI. They perceive that the interactions with these animals pose a high risk to human security. Our results stand as a strong argument for a complex management system concerning the HWI phenomenon which adapts upper-level policies and governance decisions to both local stakeholder’s needs and wildlife management objectives to be achieved in order to attain a favorable conservation status.

Research on Framework of Fault Prognostics and Health Management System for Complex System

This paper studies the framework of fault prognostics and health management for complex systems. Aiming at the problems of lack of effective organization and management of fault diagnosis resources and low resource sharing rate, this paper analyzes the characteristics of complex system and the shortcomings of traditional diagnosis mode, puts forward the service-oriented PHM system architecture, studies the system service mode and characteristics, analyzes the key technologies and main function modules of establishing the system, and carries out public PHM system service level for complex equipment field Taiwan research provides a new way of thinking.

ANALYSIS OF CHARACTERISTICS OF REAL ESTATE OBJECTS SUBMITTED TO USRRE

The importance of relevance and reliability of information is determined by a complex system of management and control of the use of real estate. Due to the large volume of data, it is necessary that the data in the system is clearly structured. For operational use of information, it is also necessary to structure it. The article describes the characteristics of real estate objects that are necessary for entering into the unified state register and presents their conditional classification.

Simulation of the FPT for Multi-Dimensional Wiener Process with Dynamic Thresholds

Reliability modeling and analysis has becoming an essential issue in complex system management. Degradation system reliability modeling is an important part of the reliability field due to that the failure data is more and more difficult to obtain. Degradation data can well describe the failure process of a system or product. In the stochastic process, the Wiener process has been widely used in literature due to its good properties. Multidimensional diffusion Wiener process describes the multidimensional degradation process of products. First passage time is the lifetime of a system to reach a threshold value. In this paper, a generalized model is developed for evaluating the reliability of the multidimensional degradation process. Meanwhile, we use the Monte Carlo method for the solution of the FPT with dynamic threshold value. The comparisons show that the results of the proposed model agree well with the Monte Carlo results. The research can support decision making in the reliability improving.

Complex system, simple indicators: Evaluation of circularity and statistical entropy as indicators of sustainability in Austrian nutrient management

The successful implementation of sustainable resource management strategies depends on the availability of indicators that are capable of reflecting system complexity adequately but can easily be computed and communicated. However, systematic assessment of the scope and limits of simple indicators is often lacking. In the present study two indicators that can readily be derived from a material flow analysis structure are applied to and evaluated in a large and complex system of phosphorus and nitrogen management in Austria. Circularity (C) is defined as the share of recycled materials in total system throughput, whereas the Substance Concentration Efficiency (SCE), an indicator based on statistical entropy, measures the extent to which a substance is concentrated or diluted while passing through the system. For comparison the indicators were normalized with respect to a best-case and worst-case scenario (C¯ and SCE¯). Although both indicators correspond well in their general statements, clear differences in the prioritization of different aspects of sustainability can be observed. While C¯ focuses on increasing recycling, emission reduction and system downsizing have stronger effects on SCE¯. SCE¯ therefore is considered more suitable for providing first indications on sustainability in Austrian nutrient management.

Mechanisms for a Systems‐Oriented Mindset – Towards Organizational Systems Thinking

AbstractThe paper examines a set of related questions regarding the capability of organizations with decentralized, project‐focused life cycle processes and fragmented system perspectives to manage complex systems: how can communication‐focused mechanisms for envisaging, visualizing, and analyzing the system support a shift towards a systems‐oriented mindset in the organization, and; to what extent does a shift in mindset improve organizational capabilities when hierarchy, process framework, and governance model of the organization remain fixed and suboptimal? The central hypothesis explored is that a shift in mindset within the organization, by focusing on the means and ways of communication about the system, can bridge gaps and fragmentations of system perspectives and improve organizational systems thinking capabilities without a need for urgent and drastic organizational actions. A toolkit of 18 mechanisms was developed to support the transformation process from six identified and analyzed problem domains to corresponding solution domains. Results were promising, with several signs of a shift in mindset; however, the long‐term effects on the overall organizational capability remain uncertain.

Improving the Efficiency of an Industrial Enterprise Due to the Architectural Approach to a Complex Information Management System

The use of modern technological and managerial solutions is becoming a necessary condition to increase the efficiency of industrial enterprises' production activities. The quantity and quality of their products depend fundamentally on the management system, employees' competencies, as well as their material and technical base, in which a special role belongs to information technologies (IT) that automate production processes and projects. Construction and use of complex information systems of industrial enterprise management, based on the architectural approach and the methodology of the architecture of IT will allow effectively competing in the rapidly changing market in the era of the digital economy. It minimizes the number of employees in operating and support units, and significantly increasing labor productivity, quantity, and quality of created products and services.

A Resilience-Based Approach to Risk Assessments-Building Resilient Organizations under Arctic Conditions.

Reliability and higher levels of safety are thought to be achieved by using systematic approaches to managing risks. The assessment of risks has produced a range of different approaches to assessing these uncertainties, presenting models for how risks affect individuals or organizations. Contemporary risk assessment tools based on this approach have proven difficult for practitioners to use as tools for tactical and operational decision making. This article presents an alternative to these assessments by utilizing a resilience perspective, arguing that complex systems are inclined to variety and uncertainty regarding the results they produce and are therefore prone to systemic failures. A continuous improvement approach is a source of reliability when managing complex systems and is necessary to manage varieties and uncertainties. For an organization to understand how risk events occur, it is necessary to define what is believed to be the equilibrium of the system in time and space. By applying a resilience engineering (RE) perspective to risk assessment, it is possible to manage this complexity by assessing the ability to respond, monitor, learn, and anticipate risks, and in so doing to move away from the flawed frequency and consequences approach. Using a research station network in the Arctic as an example illustrates how an RE approach qualifies assessments by bridging risk assessments with value-creation processes. The article concludes by arguing that a resilience-based risk assessment can improve on current practice, including for organizations located outside the Arctic region.

Rhodium: Python Library for Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Exploratory Modeling

Rhodium is an open source Python library for robust decision making (RDM), many-objective robust decision making (MORDM), and exploratory modeling. These decision-support frameworks enable the identification of robust strategies for the management of complex environmental systems, by evaluating the tradeoffs among candidate strategies, and characterizing their vulnerabilities. Robust strategies refer to management options that perform sufficiently well or acceptably under a range of potential system conditions, rather than optimally in a single, nominal state of the world. Exploratory modeling allows for the simulation of the system under an ensemble of states of the world, so as to discover the ones with consequential effects on the system [1]. Rhodium facilitates rapid application of the RDM and MORDM frameworks by providing a suite of optimization, visualization, scenario discovery, and sensitivity analysis functions. Rhodium is written in Python and can interface with models written in Python, C and C++, Fortran, R, and Excel. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/Project-Platypus/Rhodium. <strong>Funding statement:</strong> This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. (1639268). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Обґрунтування показників якості прийнятих рішень на основі оцінки вихідних даних

У статті розглядаються підходи до обґрунтування показників якості прийнятих рішень на основі оцінки вихідних даних. Процес прийняття рішень з управління військами і зброєю ґрунтується на обробці інформації, що надходить від різних джерел за видами забезпечення. У процесі обробки інформації розробляються цілком певні документи за відповідними напрямами діяльності військ. Інформація від кожного джерела із заданою періодичністю оновлюється. Повнота і обґрунтованість прийнятих рішень безпосередньо залежать від якості інформації, що надходить. Пропонується оцінювати якість інформації, на основі якої приймаються рішення з управління військами і зброєю, через невизначеність повноти поновлення інформації, що надходить від відповідних джерел. З урахуванням нечутливості ентропії до випадків, коли використовується явно застаріла інформація, або ж навпаки, практично своєчасно оновлена, вводиться показник який враховує своєчасність оновлення інформації і реальний час вироблення рішень бойовим розрахунком пункту управління. Введений показник дозволяє оцінити використовувані інформаційні ресурси в даному процесі, їх повноту і своєчасність подання на пункт управління.

Energy Assessment of a Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Propulsion Management System

Plug-In hybrid vehicles have a complex propulsion system management, trying to manage the conventional and electric motorization in the most energy efficient way according to the driving dynamics, topography and battery charge state. In this sense, the aim of this work is to analyze the energy performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles, based on road tests, under real conditions of use, focusing on the management system of the two energy sources present, varying the level of battery charge at the start of the test to visualize the impact of this change. To complement the analysis and in order to better understand the operation of the management system, a methodology for applying the VSP parameter is used, which allows the load state to be approximated according to the vehicle’s operating mode, alternating between the three modes according to the conditions at the time in question, prioritizing the electric motor when the state of charge of the battery is maximum. These results confirm the fact that plug-in hybrid vehicles allow better electricity management due to the diversity of external or internal charging sources, which makes this type of vehicle more efficient and versatile than conventional hybrids, allowing a reduction in fossil fuel consumption and consequently a reduction in the emission of pollutant gases, making this type of vehicle a very competitive alternative in the transport sector in view of the current challenges due to the goals present in the current European regulations.&#x0D; Keywords: Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Energy assessment, Climatization systems, Load support, State of charge

Saturation of radiative heat transfer due to many-body thermalization

Radiative heat transfer between two bodies saturates at very short separation distances due to the nonlocal optical response of the materials. In this work, we show that the presence of radiative interactions with a third body or external bath can also induce a saturation of the heat transfer, even at separation distances for which the optical response of the materials is purely local. We demonstrate that this saturation mechanism is a direct consequence of a thermalization process resulting from many-body interactions in the system. This effect could have an important impact in the field of nanoscale thermal management of complex systems and in the interpretation of measured signals in thermal metrology at the nanoscale.

Cognitive modeling of the development of complex managed systems

The purpose of this research is to form a set of methodological provisions related to the use of cognitive modeling in the management of complex systems in conditions of high dynamism of studied processes. The rapid development of information and analytical tools provides new opportunities for applying cognitive modeling to a wider range of systems. The methodological basis of the study is the system methodology and its direct implementation is based on the system sequence “mission – goal – functions - structure – behavior – result”. Cognitive modeling in the management of complex systems takes into account their hierarchical structure, which entails the hierarchy of the corresponding models, which is directly reflected in the generated models or considered when building local models for systems of a certain hierarchy level. Complex systems also determine the complexity of the models that represent them. Therefore, the paper proposes stratification of the modeling process and its results on five levels: the representation model, the understanding model, the interaction model, the management model and the behavior model. The dynamics of simulated systems and their external environment assumes an iterative (cyclic) nature of cognitive modeling. The paper presents a structural cognitive model of managing the functioning and development of complex systems as its result.

Research on Electric Vehicle Cooling System Based on Active and Passive Liquid Cooling

Compared with internal combustion engine automobile, the battery capacity and motor conversion efficiency for electric vehicles (EV) are limited, which means it requires lower energy consumption. To this aim, EV needs more complex thermal management system and higher thermal management requirements. This paper proposes an active and passive liquid cooling-based system cooling scheme. Coolant circulation’s components model and refrigerant circulation’s components model are built. The performance parameters for the components are obtained by fitting the experimental data. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, simulation experiments are conducted. The results show that it is feasible and robust to cool and heat the battery using passive cooling circuits in low and medium temperature environments. During critical conditions where the ambient temperature changes from 28 ° C to 32 ° C, the active and passive liquid cooling-based scheme can not only guarantee the battery operating temperature, but also save energy.

THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OF ANTI-CRISIS SOLUTIONS SEARCH IN COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT

During the life cycle of dynamic complex systems management it is accompanied by crises caused by the internal nature of management processes and external environmental challenges that lead to inhibition, and sometimes to a complete stop of the process. The general space of anti-crisis management parameters is divided into two parts: planned (after the beginning of the life cycle or after each bifurcation) and anti-crisis (crisis identification, anti-crisis decision making and planning of the part of the cycle after bifurcation). The method of morphological and parametric anti-crisis analysis and life cycle management of a dynamic complex system is proposed, which consists in decomposition of the project with selection of the latter parameters, as well as division of the system “crisis event – anti-crisis solution” into elementary parameters. Then there is a convergence of the results of decomposition and identification and the adoption of the final verdict with the adjustment of the current project plan, which allowed to build anti-crisis management on an effective scheme with bifurcations of the plan. The scheme and technology of project crisis vectors step-by-step convergence and of anti-crisis solutions vectors are developed. The information technology of making an anticrisis decision and continuing the project from the bifurcation point is proposed. The structure of the convergence of “damaged” process parameters of the planned life cycle of dynamic complex systems management and parameters of anti-crisis decisions with a verdict is created. The convergence of the complex multiparameter dynamical systems life cycle crisis parameters with the parameters of anti-crisis solutions is theoretically substantiated. The technology of convergence of crisis parameters of the life cycle of complex multiparameter dynamic systems with the parameters of anti – crisis solutions has been developed in order to optimize the latter. Methods for estimating the degree of closeness between individual sets of different parameters dimensions during their convergence have been developed. Practical tests of research results are carried out. The information technology “DYCOS” of anticrisis solutions in management of dynamic difficult systems search is developed. “DYCOS” technology is used in anti-crisis restructuring of the educational process during quarantine restrictions.

Impact of Project Planning on Knowledge Integration in Construction Projects

Knowledge management is considered to be a critical organizational capacity to create competitive advantage for construction organizations. This study used the knowledge governance perspective to propose that project planning can be unitized to improve knowledge integration in construction projects and, in turn, to achieve project success. The study quantitatively evaluated the relations between project planning, knowledge integration, and project success using partial least squares structural equation modeling with survey data from 301 project members in the Chinese construction industry. The results indicate that project planning can indeed improve knowledge integration and, in turn, facilitate construction project success in which knowledge integration plays a mediating role. The study contributes to filling the gap in understanding how project planning can be conductive to construction project success from the view of knowledge integration. It also provides new theoretical guidance for utilizing project planning to enhance knowledge integration in construction organizations rather than the traditional way of establishing a complex knowledge management system.

Remaining Useful Strength (RUS) Prediction of SiCf-SiCm Composite Materials Using Deep Learning and Acoustic Emission

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

Privatization or communalization: A multi-level analysis of changes in forest property regimes in China

Over recent decades, the Chinese government has invested heavily in improving the country's forest tenure system through the Collective Forest Tenure Reform. This reform has primarily focused on privatization of collectively-owned forests, which has been perceived to improve effective forest management by providing incentives to farmers. This paper documents results of the Collective Forest Tenure Reform and the factors that have shaped these results through a multi-level analysis: at the national, regional, community and individual levels. It was found forest privatization implemented through the tenure reform was much less than what government expected. Instead, as shown in illustrative case-studies, people intend to retain the forest as common property in a way that creates a complex communal forest management system. The paper argued that while it is good the government is willing to improve forest tenure security for local people, there is a need to better consider the local perceptions of the tenure reform policy's effectiveness and efficiency, and justice in forest management, and to understand the complexity of the pre-existing communal forest management system that exists throughout the country.

Space decomposition of complex systems control parameters

In the management of complex systems, there are often cases in which in all respects the life cycle of the system in a qualitatively planned and provided with all necessary resources was temporarily suspended or even terminated altogether due to a crisis. Such systems may include any technical device or process, complex medical loss with many internal parameters and external connections. Complex systems on the same lines are organizational projects and project management processes, which are accompanied by inevitable crises. This is due to the use of outdated approaches in understanding the ongoing project management crisis processes, the lack of effective methods of assessing the sources of hazards that threaten the project activity and the current state of its parameters – in a fact, the result of management. Without reliable data on such results, the project manager is not able to accurately calculate the management impact on the object, and therefore organize such management in a proactive manner. From the analysis of complex systems management it follows that the turbulent environment does not fully support the structure and parameters of management actions planned at the beginning of the project. However, not only the environment adversely affects the drift of control parameters. This is also effectively facilitated by internal problems that continually introduce these parameters from planned values. This creates crisis situations that threaten the project and constantly encourage the start of an additional phase of project management: anti-crisis measures to prevent and counter such threats. The main tasks of further researches in this direction and, first of all, taking into account the peculiarities of the mechanism by which the project develops after its implementation are set. In this regard, the so-called anti-crisis management, which has a much greater ability to identify and combat crises, is becoming more widespread. The general space of the parameters of such management of a complex system was conditionally divided into two parts: planned and anti-crisis. The method of preparation of parameters of complex system and crisis for making anti-crisis decisions has been developed. The method consists in decomposing the system parameters and organizing monitoring of the values of these parameters within the tolerance with the further moving to the crisis repository of the parameters that went beyond these limits.

Technological process intensification trends in livestock

In the article aspects of intensification of technological processes in livestock rearing, such as harvesting, storage and processing of forages, weighing and dosage of feed, feeding and drinking of animals, controlling their production, identification of each animal, production of technical products are considered. In animal husbandry, many complex technological processes are considered and implemented in the class of autonomous subsystems and each of them, performing a certain task, can be a component of a more complex management system. Some schemes of automation of technological processes, such as the scheme of the raw materials department of the shop of technical products with the use of automation, the functional scheme of automation of the production of fodder flour, the scheme of automation of the process of fat burning are presented. These features are evidence of the need to introduce modern technologies and their intensification in the livestock sector.