Major OECD Countries Research Articles

Flexible labor, innovation regimes and the erosion of the Japanese model: Evidence from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Due to labor market reforms around 2003–4, Japan has a growing group of ‘non-regular’ workers who are easy to fire, and have poor carrier perspectives. This marks a break with the traditional Japanese model of life-time employment that allowed for intensive in-company training and commitment of personnel. Drawing from a national wage structure survey, we find indications that employment of non-regular workers has a negative impact on productivity (proxied by wages), this negative impact being largest under innovation regimes that require a high cumulativeness of knowledge. Our findings are consistent with neo-Schumpeterian research in Europe which concluded that certain labor market rigidities, while being undesirable from a neoclassical perspective, can be useful to innovation. Our paper confirms the impression from earlier research that structural reforms of labor markets along supply-side lines are likely to be one of the reasons for a substantial decline of productivity growth in major OECD countries since about 2004/05.

고등교육 대중화 시기, STEM 졸업자 비율이 대졸 실업률에 미치는 영향

With the expansion of higher education, it has been reported that the relative advantage of university graduates decreased. However, STEM graduates tended to be an exception, as the demand for STEM majors has gradually been increasing in the knowledge economy society where economic development is based on R&D innovation. Against this backdrop, this study aimed to explore how the proportion of STEM graduates might affect college graduate unemployment rates in major OECD countries where the enrollment rates of universities have been on the rise. Two models—a fixed-effects model and a fixed-effects two-stage model using an instrumental variable—were used to examine whether the ratio of STEM graduates affected the unemployment rates of college graduates between 2000 and 2019 for 19 OECD countries. Consequently, this research has reached the conclusion that the proportion of STEM major graduates in a country has a statistically significant adverse effect on the college graduate unemployment rate. The result based on this causal inference method can provide a policy basis for the government to support the cultivation of STEM talents considering that the supply of STEM majors has been insufficient in many countries.

The Monetary Policy Preferences of Left- and Right-Wing Populism

The paper uses a Taylor-rule model for central banks to examine the economic outcome of modern populism. Annual data of major OECD countries from 2001 to 2019 is applied to examine the overall level of populism in the regime, the left/right divide of the regime and the populist political force, the independence of the central bank from the political regime to model the target interest rate. The results verify the impact of populism on monetary policy and the invalidity of the traditional partisan approach, and distinguish the different effect of left- and right-wing populism. A populist regime favors low interest rate than a non-populist regime, and a leftist populist regime prefers expansionary monetary policies than rightist populist regime. Such a divide in monetary policy preference can be used as a classification criterion for classification of populist political forces, with The Five Star Movement in Italy as an example.

Efficiency and its influencing factors of urban water sector in China and major OECD countries

Improving the efficiency and productivity of the water supply sector is related to the mitigation of a country's water resources crisis and the governance of the water ecological environment. This paper employs a sequential data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to examine the comparative efficiency of China's urban water industry by using the country-level data from 1998 to 2017, and then attempts to make a cross-country comparison of the technology gap in the urban water industry between China and major OECD countries. The results show that China's urban water sector performance is improving despite falling short of urban water development in the major OECD. The gap between the performance of China's urban water sector and that of major OECD countries is narrowing. Efficiency improvement has become the main driver of productivity growth of urban water sector in both China and the major OECD countries. Besides, the reduction of capital deepening in the water industry and the easing of water stress could improve the water industry's performance in efficiency. While increased foreign direct investment instead reduces the water industry's efficiency, increased R&D expenditure can improve efficiency, but both are not statistically significant. These findings indicate that compared to major OECD countries, China's urban water industry should strengthen the reform change as soon as possible from asset-heavy to asset-light operation and service, and then improve the water conservation system.

Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

The recent global migration pattern indicates the importance of the movement of people from developing countries to developed countries in search of better economic opportunities. The G20 report of ‘International Migration and Displacement Trends’ mentions India at the top of the list of highly educated emigrants in G20 countries. The current study addresses the endogeneity problem in the migration determinants and attempts to highlight the major regional and economic determinants of migration flow from India to major OECD countries using the Gravity model of migration. We apply the Prais–Winsten regression method to address the cross-sectional correlation, while we apply instrumental variable regression and Hausman–Taylor regression estimation techniques to deal with the endogeneity issue. The findings reveal that the population of India, distance, common official language and per capita income differential are the major determinants of migration from India. In the backdrop of our findings, in terms of per capita income differential, there is a need for an upward revision in the pay scale of the white-collar workers in the organised sector. JEL Codes: C23, F22, J11, J60

Wage centralization and the political economy of budget deficits

This paper studies the relationship between wage centralization and budget deficits. Using a panel of 18 major OECD countries from 1980 to 2014, I find strong evidence that wage centralization is associated with lower budget deficits in the panel of industrialized economies. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model shows that this negative link is mostly in the long run and not in the short run. The empirical results suggest that this negative association cannot be explained by either wage coordination at national level or by formal/informal cooperation among industry-level unions. Instead, the paper introduces a political economy model that can be viewed as one potential explanation for the empirical results. The model argues that wage centralization interacts with the political economy of budget deficits, leading to a lower level of deficit bias. The suggested mechanism is based on sectoral wage inter-dependency that emerges from centralization of wage bargaining.

Lessons for the Age of Consequences: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Based on comparative empirical evidence for 22 major OECD countries, I argue that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are largely caused by: (1) weaknesses in public health competence by country; (2) pre-existing country-wise variations in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities; and (3) the presence of fiscal constraints. The paper argues that these pre-existing conditions, all favorable to the coronavirus, have been created, and amplified, by four decades of neoliberal macroeconomic policies – in particular by (a) the deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities and vulnerabilities); (b) the obsessive belief of macroeconomists in a trade-off between ‘efficiency’ and ‘equity’, which is mostly used to erroneously justify rampant inequality; (c) the complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class; and (d) the unhealthy aversion of mainstream macro (and MMT) to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics.

What Factors Determine the Attractiveness of the Host Sector to Overseas R&D? Empirical Evidence From Major OECD Countries

What Factors Determine the Attractiveness of the Host Sector to Overseas R&D? Empirical Evidence From Major OECD Countries

주요 OECD 국가의 소득세부담에 관한 비교분석

본 연구의 목적은 1990～2018년까지의 연간자료를 이용하여 거시적 관점에서 우리나라와 오스트리아, 캐나다, 핀란드, 프랑스, 독일, 이탈리아, 일본, 포르투갈, 스페인, 스웨덴, 영국, 미국 등 주요 OECD 13개국에 대해 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정함으로써, 소득세부담을 실증적으로 분석하여 이에 대한 시사점을 모색하는데 있다. 실증분석방법은 세법개정효과를 고려하지 않고, 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정하였다. 실증분석 결과를 주요 OECD 국가들과 비교분석을 함으로써, 소득세부담에 관한 정책적 시사점을 모색해 보았다. 실증분석 결과, 소득세의 GDP에 대한 탄력성[부양성]은 일본을 제외한 12개국에서 GDP가 증가하면 소득세의 세수가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 자기상관을 제거한 후 실증분석에서는 독일, 일본을 제외한 대부분 국가에서 자기상관을 제거하기 전의 결과와 비슷한 것으로 나타났다. 2008년 금융위기 이후 대부분 OECD 국가에서 소득세의 세율조정, 최고구간을 신설하는 등 소득세 개편과 법인세 및 부가가치세율을 조정함으로써, 경제 활성화와 재정건전성을 확보하는 추세이다. 우리나라도 소득세에 대한 비과세 · 감면정책은 유지하면서, 소득세의 최고세율을 인상하고 고소득층에 대한 과세를 강화했다. 이것은 우리나라가 복지재원과 일자리 창출을 위한 재원확보를 위해 조세정책을 적극적으로 활용하겠다는 쪽으로 정책방향을 정한 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 향후 재정건전성 확보를 위해서는 보편적 증세, 근로소득자의 면세자 감소와 세원을 확대할 필요가 있다고 본다.

주요 OECD 국가의 소득세부담에 관한 비교분석

본 연구의 목적은 1990～2018년까지의 연간자료를 이용하여 거시적 관점에서 우리나라와 오스트리아, 캐나다, 핀란드, 프랑스, 독일, 이탈리아, 일본, 포르투갈, 스페인, 스웨덴, 영국, 미국 등 주요 OECD 13개국에 대해 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정함으로써, 소득세부담을 실증적으로 분석하여 이에 대한 시사점을 모색하는데 있다. 실증분석방법은 세법개정효과를 고려하지 않고, 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정하였다. 실증분석 결과를 주요 OECD 국가들과 비교분석을 함으로써, 소득세부담에 관한 정책적 시사점을 모색해 보았다. 실증분석 결과, 소득세의 GDP에 대한 탄력성[부양성]은 일본을 제외한 12개국에서 GDP가 증가하면 소득세의 세수가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 자기상관을 제거한 후 실증분석에서는 독일, 일본을 제외한 대부분 국가에서 자기상관을 제거하기 전의 결과와 비슷한 것으로 나타났다. 2008년 금융위기 이후 대부분 OECD 국가에서 소득세의 세율조정, 최고구간을 신설하는 등 소득세 개편과 법인세 및 부가가치세율을 조정함으로써, 경제 활성화와 재정건전성을 확보하는 추세이다. 우리나라도 소득세에 대한 비과세 · 감면정책은 유지하면서, 소득세의 최고세율을 인상하고 고소득층에 대한 과세를 강화했다. 이것은 우리나라가 복지재원과 일자리 창출을 위한 재원확보를 위해 조세정책을 적극적으로 활용하겠다는 쪽으로 정책방향을 정한 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 향후 재정건전성 확보를 위해서는 보편적 증세, 근로소득자의 면세자 감소와 세원을 확대할 필요가 있다고 본다.

주요 OECD 국가의 법인세부담에 관한 비교분석

본 연구의 목적은 거시적 관점에서 1990～2017년까지의 연간자료를 이용하여 우리나라와 캐나다, 핀란드, 프랑스, 독일, 일본, 스페인, 스웨덴, 영국, 미국 등 주요 OECD 10개국에 대해 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정함으로써, 법인세부담을 실증적으로 분석하여 이에 대한 시사점을 모색하는 데 있다. 실증분석은 세법개정효과를 고려하지 않고, 세수의 소득탄력성[부양성]을 추정하였다. 분석결과를 주요 OECD국가들과 비교분석을 함으로써, 법인세부담에 관한 정책적 함의를 모색해 보았다.BR 실증분석 결과, 법인세의 GDP에 대한 탄력성[부양성]은 일본을 제외한 9개국에서 GDP가 증가하면 법인세의 세수가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 자기상관을 제거한 후 분석에서는 핀란드, 독일, 일본을 제외한 대부분 국가에서 자기상관을 제거하기 전의 결과와 비슷한 것으로 나타났다.BR 최근 미국, 영국을 비롯한 대부분 OECD국가에서 법인세를 인하하는 추세이다. 그러나 우리나라는 복지재원과 일자리 창출을 위한 재원확보를 위해 법인세를 인상했다. 우리나라의 경제상황을 감안해 볼 때, 법인세의 인상을 통한 소득재분배 개선 정책 보다는 기업의 투자를 증대시킬 정책이 더 필요할 시점이라고 판단된다.

Beyond Conventional Sovereign Debt Instruments: Issuance of GDP-linked Bonds in OECD Countries?

Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon, while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assessed sovereign credit quality has declined. Against this, the OECD Committee on Financial Markets discussed proposals for sovereign debt managers to consider issuing GDP-linked sovereign bonds. The Committee considered proposals timely and the idea conceptually attractive, as additional insurance against economic downturns over the medium term would be available. It identified however also a number of issues that would complicate issuance in practise. Questions arise in particular as regards investor demand for such instruments and how an additional novelty, liquidity and indexation premium would compare to a potentially reduced default premium on more traditional debt. Debt management offices confirm and stress such practical difficulties and remain sceptical, quoting a lack of sustainable demand for such bonds. As a result, issuance of such bonds would be too costly. It is not clear however whether debt management offices take into account the full macroeconomic and financial stability risk-return trade-off that a broader perspective would take into account. Proposals for issuance of sovereign GDP-linked bonds among advanced economies, which had received increased attention after the German G20-presidency included the topic in the G20 finance track, may have lost some momentum, but there continues to be considerable support from both academics and practitioners.

The Industrial Linkages and Supply Effects of the U.S. R&D Sector: Comparison with OECD Countries

The industrial linkages and supply effects of the U.S. Research and Development (R&D) sector are examined using the input-output approach. Although the U.S. has the highest R&D intensity among major OECD countries, the U.S. R&D sector has relatively low backward and forward linkages to other industrial sectors. Moreover, the supply investment effect of the U.S. R&D sector is the least, showing that the sector is not likely to stimulate the production of the other sectors. The supply shortage effect of the U.S. R&D sector is also the least among the countries. The findings in this study imply that improving the linkages and supply effects of the R&D sector may be more important than increasing only the amount of R&D expenditure in the U.S.

OECD 주요 국가들의 빈곤율과 사회복지지출

OECD 주요 국가들의 빈곤율과 사회복지지출

주요 OECD 국가의 세출구조조정 행태 분석 : 글로벌 경제위기 전후 기간을 중심으로

주요 OECD 국가의 세출구조조정 행태 분석 : 글로벌 경제위기 전후 기간을 중심으로

Testing explosive behavior of public debt in OECD countries

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the beginning and end of potentially speculative explosive public debt patterns occurring in 29 major OECD countries. The method we use is most appropriate for practical implementation with a time series and delivers a consistent date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple explosive behaviors. Our results also test that most OECD countries, except for Israel, Luxembourg, and Turkey, have experienced periods of explosive public debt. The stationarity of public debt varies by country. Approximately two-thirds of the explosive periods occurred prior to 2012. Based on the scale, structure, and safety of government debt for dynamic monitoring and evaluation, governments can improve risk management measures.

The Impact of Employment Protection on the Industrial Wage Structure

This paper tests whether the job security offered by stricter employment protection legislation (EPL) undermines positive compensating wage differentials that would otherwise be paid. Specifically, we ask whether industries with relatively more need for layoffs and labour flexibility have lower wages in countries where stricter EPL protects workers from layoffs. We find this generally to be true for a large sample of industries in the major OECD countries over 1984-2005, particularly for wages of unskilled workers. However, we also find that where workers are well organised, they can take advantage of EPL to secure higher wages.

A Comparative Analysis of Customs Duties Burden in Major OECD Countries

A Comparative Analysis of Customs Duties Burden in Major OECD Countries

Editorial: Britain: A Case for Development?

For the past four years the major industrial OECD countries have been in the throes of a crisis brought to a head by the oil price rises of 1973-74, but arising from longer-run difficulties which had already begun to appear by the late 1960s. The crisis is by no means over. The situation of the economically stronger countries such as the USA, Japan and West Germany seems to be on the upturn but the recovery of others including Britain is still very much in doubt.

Services in International Trade of Japan : Factors Influence on the Share

This study examines possible factors influencing on the share of services in international trade of Japan. Until China overtook in 2004, Japan had stayed as the leading Asian exporter. Together with the United States and Germany, Japan was one of the major exporter of value added in final demand for many countries around the world. While the most of major OECD countries were carrying on economic growth through the export expansions for the past ten years, the proportion of exports to Japan’s GDP and its growth in the percentage are low, especially in relation to services trade. Therefore, this research pays attention to the periodical changes of services in international trade of Japan in order to determine the factors. To build a theoretical framework, qualitative method is used based on the literature review within the frame of reference to services and perspective of international trade. With respect, the perception and perspectives of different critics were reviewed and analyzed during that data collection in different languages: Japanese, Chinese, English, and Korean. The factors influenced on the shares of services in international trade of Japan are determined through the analysis and they are: technological development, direct foreign investment, liberalization of trade, agreements with neighboring and foreign countries, and natural disaster.