Major Global Risk Research Articles

Dynamics of combatting market-driven epidemics: Insights from U.S. reduction of cigarette, sugar, and prescription opioid consumption.

Misuse and overconsumption of certain consumer products have become major global risk factors for premature deaths, with their total costs in trillions of dollars. Progress in reducing such deaths has been slow and difficult. To address this challenge, this review introduces the definition of market-driven epidemics (MDEs), which arise when companies aggressively market products with proven harms, deny these harms, and resist mitigation efforts. MDEs are a specific within the broader landscape of commercial determinants of health. We selected three illustrative MDE products reflecting different consumer experiences: cigarettes (nicotine delivery product), sugar (food product), and prescription opioids (medical product). Each met the MDE case definition with proven adverse health impacts, well-documented histories, longitudinal product consumption and health impact data, and sustained reduction in product consumption. Based on these epidemics, we describe five MDE phases: market expansion, evidence of harm, corporate resistance, mitigation, and market adaptation. From the peak of consumption to the most recent data, U.S. cigarette sales fell by 82%, sugar consumption by 15%, and prescription opioid prescriptions by 62%. For each, the consumption tipping point occurred when compelling evidence of harm, professional alarm, and an authoritative public health voice and/or public mobilization overcame corporate marketing and resistance efforts. The gap between suspicion of harm and the consumption tipping point ranged from one to five decades-much of which was attributable to the time required to generate sufficient evidence of harm. Market adaptation to the reduced consumption of target products had both negative and positive impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first comparative analysis of three successful efforts to change the product consumption patterns and the associated adverse health impacts of these products. The MDE epidemiological approach of shortening the latent time to effective mitigation provides a new method to reduce the impacts of harmful products.

Ecohumanism, democratic culture and activist pedagogy: Attending to what the known demands of us

In two different occasions in the twentieth century John Dewey and Maxine Greene stressed the point that educators should attend to ‘what the known demands of us’. Following this dictum, from a critical perspective and with a constructive pedagogical spirit, in this paper we portray a new paradigm for values education that addresses the major challenges to the sustainable futures of young people in the third decade of the twenty first century as well as proposing transformative and empowering educational strategies. Employing the terminology of sustainability in its wider sense, we begin with a widely acknowledged diagnosis of the five major global risks – interconnected and interdependent – that endanger the sustainable future of humanity and nature: environmental, political, social, health, and cultural. We then move to suggest a constructive solution, proposing three conceptual pillars for repairing the world and laying foundation for a thriving sustainable future: (a) Ecohumanism as the paradigm for values education – merging the humanist concern for human dignity, social justice and democracy with the ecological concern for climate stability, biodiversity and environmental sustainability; (b) education of democratic personality and for democratic culture that is holistic and transformative; and (c) a threefold notion of activist pedagogy that addresses the element of cultivating personal agency, empowering political literacy and agency, and engaging students in experiential, holistic, and active teaching-learning experiences.

Prevalence and risk factor of diabetes and hypertension in northeastern and south Indian region in India: insights from large scale survey data

Background: Hypertension and diabetes, two of the major global risks for mortality are on a rapid rise in developing nations and leading risk factors for a hero sclerosis and its complications, including heart attacks and strokes. It is predicted that by 2030, India’s diabetes burden will be almost 87 million people. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and risk factor of diabetes and hypertension in northeastern and south Indian region in India. Methods: This study utilised the fourth wave of the national family health survey (2015-16). Bivariate, multivariable logistic regression analyses were done to meet the aim of the paper. Results: Analysis shows that the highest prevalence of prehypertension is higher in Sikkim state whereas the prevalence of hypertension men is higher in also Sikkim state. Prevalence of women is prehypertension in Sikkim state and hypertensive women is higher prevalence in Nagaland and Assam state. Conclusions: Diabetes is developing with multi-morbidity like hypertension. Thus, there is need to provide the health education to diabetic people by public and private health care services and increase the health awareness in the society at grass root level. The main reason behind diabetes is heredity, less physical activity, higher body mass index, and increased cholesterol level in that group of south India and northeastern region. There is need that people should change their lifestyle and government should build the structure of city with health perspective.

A Retrospective Cohort Study of the Association Between Calcium Serum Level and Hypertension in Older Adults.

One of the major global risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and death is hypertension.Earlier research has been conducted on the connection between calcium consumption and blood pressure. This study aims to investigate the association between calcium serum levels and hypertension in older hypertensive adults. A retrospective cohort study of 121 of hypertension patients was conducted inPrince Faisal Bin Khalid Cardiac Center.The data of all patients were collected by records, including lab, pathology, and medical review, in order to determine the effects on patients, providers, and institutions.Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS Statistics version 26.0.A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The study included 121 adulthypertensive patients with a mean of age 60.29 ± 13.92.The majority of included patients were male (81%).More than one-third of patients were obese (39.7%), about one-third (33.9%) were overweight, and 26.4% of patients were in normal weight.The majority of patients had co-morbidities (68.3%); about one-half of them had diabetes mellitus (52.1%). The calcium level mean was 5.07 ± 1.26.The creatine kinase (CK) (initial day) mean ± SD was 813.22 ± 1146.37 became 221.4 ± 330.67 on the last day.The CK-myocardial band (CK-MB) (initial day) was 65.43 ± 118.9 and became 24.38 ± 23.26 on the last day.Additionally, the troponin (initial day) mean was 23.49 ± 104.26 and became 1.65 ± 2.66 on the last day.The most common discharge medications were anti-platelets (95%), beta-blockers (78.5%), statins (70.2%), and proton-pump inhibitors (PPI) (64.5%).The hospital stay days ranged from 1 to 20 days with a mean of 4.83 ± 3.38.The ICU stay days ranged from 1 to 15 days with a mean of 3.57 ± 2.72.Most of the patients (90.9%) improved. There is no significant correlationbetween calcium levels in hypertensive patients and the demographic characteristics of patients, home or current medications, ECHO findings, or procedures done.However, there is a significant correlation between the calcium level and CK level among patients with hypertension.Further investigations are required to verify the relationship between CK and calcium levels in hypertensive patients.

A systematic literature review on sustainability issues along the value chain in insurance companies and pension funds.

Sustainability is now a priority issue that governments, businesses and society in general must address in the short term. In their role as major global institutional investors and risk managers, insurance companies and pension funds are strategic players in building socio-economic and sustainable development. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the current state of action and research on environmental, social and governance(ESG) factors in the insurance and pension sectors, we conduct a systematic literature review. We rely on the PRISMA protocol and analyze 1731 academic publications available in the Web of Science database up to the year 2022 and refer to 23 studies outside of scientific research retrieved from the websites of key international and European organizations. To study the corpus of literature, we introduce a classification framework along the insurance value chain including external stakeholders. The main findings reveal that risk, underwriting and investment management are the most researched areas among the nine categories considered in our framework, while claims management and sales tend to be neglected. Regarding ESG factors, climate change, as part of the environmental factor, has received the most attention in the literature. After reviewing the literature, we summarize the main sustainability issues and potential related actions. Given the current nature of the sustainability challenges for the insurance sector, this literature review is relevant to academics and practitioners alike.

Excess Global Blood Pressure Associated With Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution Levels Exceeding World Health Organization Guidelines

Excess Global Blood Pressure Associated With Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution Levels Exceeding World Health Organization Guidelines

Supply chain leakage of greenhouse gas emissions and supplier innovation

Climate change is a major global risk and a key driver for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Yet, firms’ internal emissions reduction may create a leakage leading to higher emissions in the supply chain. The related literature suggests that the pollution‐haven hypothesis explains such emissions leakage. In contrast, we explore an alternative reason for supply chain leakage, which is related to optimization of supply chain activities and supply chain innovation. Based on panel data from Bloomberg Environmental, Social, and Governance and Bloomberg Supply Chain, we estimate our models at a dyadic (i.e., firm and supplier) level using two‐way cluster‐robust standard error, treating various sources of endogeneity. We find empirical evidence of a supply chain leakage effect—a higher level of a supplier's emissions is associated with a lower level of a firm's internal emissions. More importantly, the supplier's innovation can be a major reason behind the leakage; the supply chain leakage effect is stronger when a supplier is more innovative. Furthermore, the role of innovation is strengthened when a supplier invests in eco‐innovation and has technological capabilities similar to those of the focal firm. Our findings suggest that supply chain leakage may not be completely driven by the pollution‐haven effect, but instead is associated with supply chain optimization and innovation that may be beneficial in the long run.

Unfulfilled Promise: Pollinator Declines, Crop Deficits, and Diet-Associated Disease.

Unfulfilled Promise: Pollinator Declines, Crop Deficits, and Diet-Associated Disease.

Societal Risks in SMEs: The Current Covid-19 Pandemic Perspective

This paper is focused on the global risks and its categories faced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs). World Economic Forum (WEF) has monitored as well as emphasized major global risks and categorized them into five main factors that are; societal, economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological. Therefore, a literature review was conducted to identify the most studied risks in SMEs and it was found that the societal risks received minor attention, particularly in pandemic perspective. Currently, SMEs are massively vulnerable to the pandemic outbreak of Corona 2019 (Covid-19) as it is now called. This study has discussed the impacts of this pandemic on SMEs and how the SMEs should manage this crisis.

Moderating Effect of Country of Residence in Predicting Adherence to Treatment Among Black Adults Diagnosed with Hypertension

Background: Uncontrolled hypertension (HTN) is the major global risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Black individuals have worse cardiovascular health outcomes than their racial counterparts. High incidences of HTN-related strokes, heart failure, and chronic kidney diseases are prevalent in Black communities. Long-term adherence to HTN treatment is efficacious in hypertension control but challenged by psychosocial factors and the asymptomatic nature of HTN. Purpose: This research aims to assess if the country of residence moderates the relationship between adherence and each of its potential predictors in Black adults with HTN residing in the United States and Nigeria. Methodology: This is a secondary data analysis of two studies conducted in New York and southeast Nigeria (n=226). Data were analyzed using SPSS Statistical software Version 27. Descriptive differences in adherence and predicting variables, bivariate analyses for significant predicting variables within each sample, and general linear model analyses with plots for country of residence interaction effects were conducted. Results: The mean ages of the US and Nigerian samples were 57.3 ± 11.9 years (70.9% female) and 46.6 ± 8.9 years (67.1% female), respectively. Significant differences (p &lt;.05) were noted between levels of adherence, age, self–efficacy, illness perception, annual income, and herbal use. Adherence was significantly associated (p &lt; .05) with social support, self-efficacy, provider-patient communication, depressive symptoms, herbal use, employment, and income status within the Nigerian sample. Adherence was significantly associated with depressive symptoms and income status within the US sample. The interaction of country of residence with illness perception, social support, self-efficacy, and provider-patient communication significantly predicted adherence but not for the other variables. Interestingly, there was an opposite relationship between illness perception and adherence between the two samples. Conclusions: The country of residence moderated the relationship between adherence and illness perception, social support, self-efficacy, and provider-patient communication. These findings have clinical, cultural, and policy implications. Understanding the similarities and differences between the US and Nigeria will help clinicians working with Black patients and tailor interventions to meet the unique needs of this population. Future studies and culturally relevant strategies to improve HTN treatment adherence could target factors unique to hypertensive patients’ country of residence.

Development of Qube: A Low-Cost Internet of Things Device for On-Site and Regional Earthquake Warning

Abstract Earthquakes are a major global risk. The current earthquake early warning systems based on public seismic stations face challenges such as high cost, low density, high latency, no alert zone, and difficulty in predicting ground motions at the location of the user. This article pursues an alternative consumer-based approach. An Internet of Things consumer device, called a “Qube,” was built for a cost below $100 and is about the size of a Rubik’s cube. The Qube successfully detected earthquakes and issued earthquake warnings through sounding the onboard alarm for on-site warning and sending text messages to local subscribers for regional warning. The Qube is highly sensitive. During nine months of testing from September 2020 to May 2021, it detected all earthquakes over M 3.0 magnitude around Los Angeles, as well as nearby earthquakes down to M 2.3. The Qube uses a geophone for ground-motion velocity sensing and captures earthquake waveforms consistent with a nearby broadband seismometer in the Southern California Seismic Network. By analyzing data of the earthquakes detected by the Qube, an empirical logarithmic formula that is used to estimate local earthquake magnitude based on detected ground-motion amplitude in digital counts was developed. Although the Qube’s response in digital counts to ground-motion velocity in μm/s has not been determined, the empirical formula between Qube’s output and local earthquake magnitude suggests the Qube’s consistency in ground-motion measurement. The Qube has Wi-Fi connectivity and is controllable via a smartphone or computer. The combination of low cost, high sensitivity, and integrated alarm function of the Qube is intended to enable a consumer-based approach with the potential for mass adoption and use in dense networks, creating new opportunities for seismic network, earthquake warning, and educational applications.

THE EFFECT OF 30 GLOBAL RISK ON SME PERFORMANCE IN PAKISTAN: THE ROLE OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION

This study investigated how small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in a country perceive major global risks. The aim was to explore how country attributes and circumstances affect SME assessments of the likelihood, impacts, and rankings of global risks, and to find out if SME risk assessment and rankings differ from the global rankings. For this, we proposed the theoretical framework proposing that these risks affect SME performance through curbing entrepreneurial orientation. The thirty global risks identified by the World Economic Forum (WEF 2019), and were characterized into five risk categories as per the Asgary et. al. (2020) framework. These included economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks. Empirical validity was established by conducting a survey using a close-ended questionnaire. Data was collected from 150+ entrepreneurs and analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation modeling. The result suggested that among all the risks, only societal risks seem to negatively affect entrepreneurial orientation and SME performance. Entrepreneurial orientation also has a positive effect on SME performance, hence seems to mediate societal risk and SME perforce nexus. Societal risks included Failure of urban planning, Food crises, Large-scale involuntary migration, Profound social instability, Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases, and Water crises.

How the macroeconomic conditions and the global risk factors affect sovereign CDS spreads? New Evidence from Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the effects of a set of major country-specific macroeconomic variables and global risk factor on determining Turkey’s sovereign CDS spreads. The industrial production index, consumer price index, nominal exchange rates, policy interest rate, stock market index, and the volatility index as a proxy for global risk appetite are used by employing SVAR methodology with block exogeneity for 2011M01-2020M09 periods. The results reveal that the country's nominal exchange rate is the main driver of sovereign CDS spread. Especially in 2018, the most significant source of the high increase in sovereign CDS spreads is the exchange rates. According to the impulse response functions, to reduce the sovereign CDS spread, economic growth is more effective than the stock market return. Moreover, it is seen that the global risk factor does not play an essential role in the increases in domestic country's sovereign CDS spread.

First reduce and reuse, then recycle! Enabling consumers to tackle the plastic crisis – Qualitative expert interviews in Germany

Plastic pollution has become a major global risk. The European Union (EU) obligates all member states to implement measures according to the waste management hierarchy, with the highest priority given to waste prevention and reuse. Currently, several policies tackle the plastic crisis, while effective measures for prevention are hardly introduced. Moreover, approaches are rarely tailored to individual consumers’ needs for reducing plastic waste. This paper is the first to collect and structure stakeholder knowledge on measures that enable consumers to use plastic more sustainably and, in particular, to prevent the generation of new plastic waste. The present study explores perspectives of 28 selected German stakeholders from the political, economic, civil and scientific sector. Written expert interviews with open questions captured stakeholders’ perceptions of the plastic problem and their approaches to enabling consumers to reduce plastic packaging for food and beverages. Results showed that the interviewed stakeholders did not point out consumers as the most important agents for change, but considered all societal agents responsible for implementing a wide range of consumer-enabling measures. The analysis revealed six groups of suggested measures, the most predominant ones being (1) the creation of alternatives for consumers and (2) political measures. Further suggested measures were (3) communication and awareness raising, (4) change in consumer behavior, (5) technical innovation and development, and (6) networking with other stakeholders. Based on our empirical results, we derived nine recommendations for action on three levels of the waste management hierarchy: prevention, recycling and disposal.

Synergistic and On-Demand Release of Ag-AMPs Loaded on Porous Silicon Nanocarriers for Antibacteria and Wound Healing.

Due to the abuse of antibiotics, antimicrobial resistance is rapidly emerging and becoming a major global risk for public health. Thus, there is an urgent need for reducing the use of antibiotics, finding novel treatment approaches, and developing controllable release systems. In this work, a dual synergistic antibacterial platform with on-demand release ability based on silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) and antimicrobial peptide (AMP) coloaded porous silicon (PSi) was developed. The combination of AgNPs and AMPs (Tet-213, KRWWKWWRRC) exhibited an excellent synergistic antibacterial effect. As a carrier, porous silicon can efficiently load AgNPs and AMP under mild conditions and give the platform an on-demand release ability and a synergistic release effect. The AgNPs and AMP coloaded porous silicon microparticles (AgNPs-AMP@PSiMPs) exhibited an acid pH and reactive oxygen species (ROS)-stimulated release of silver ions (Ag+) and AMPs under bacterial infection conditions because of oxidation and desorption effects. Moreover, the release of the bactericide could be promoted by each other due to the interplay between AgNPs and Tet-213. In vitro antibacterial tests demonstrated that AgNPs-AMP@PSiMPs inherited the intrinsic properties and synergistic antibacterial efficiency of both bactericides. In addition, wound dressing loaded with AgNPs-AMP@PSiMPs showed outstanding in vivo bacteria-killing activity, accelerating wound-healing, and low biotoxicity in aStaphylococcus aureus-infected rat wound model. The present work demonstrated that PSiMPS might be an efficient platform for loading the antibiotic-free bactericide, which could synergistically and on-demand release to fight wound infection and promote wound healing.

Stressors at work and elsewhere: a global survival approach

Abstract: The United Nations´ “Agenda 2030” aims, in an integrated manner, to address the entire multitude of major global risks – e.g., to end poverty and hunger, realize the human rights of all, and ensure the lasting protection of the planet and its natural resources. However, recent political changes put this bold initiative at risk. To increase the likelihood of success, higher education institutions worldwide should teach and train today´s students – tomorrow´s decision makers – to think both critically and ethically, to learn to cope with ethical dilemmas, and to apply systems-thinking approaches to serious and complex societal problems. The Covid-19 pandemic provides just one example of a complex and serious challenge necessitating such approaches. Promoting decent work, full employment and economic growth is one of the other major challenges. And neither of them can be successfully dealt with in a piecemeal manner

Supply Chain Leakage of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Climate change has been a major global risk and a key driver for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. Yet, internal emissions reduction of firms may create a leakage that leads to higher emissions in the supply chain. The related literature suggests that such emissions leakage is explained by the pollution haven hypothesis. We propose and find evidence for an alternative reason for supply chain leakage, one that is driven by innovation and optimization of supply chain activities. Using panel data from Bloomberg Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and Bloomberg Supply Chain (SPLC), we estimate our models at a firm and supplier dyadic level using two-way cluster robust standard error and dyadic robust error estimations, treating different sources of endogeneity. We find empirical evidence of a supply chain leakage effect – a higher level of supplier emissions is associated with a lower level of firm internal emissions. More importantly, supplier innovation can be a major driver behind the leakage – the supply chain leakage effect is heightened when a supplier is more innovative. Further, the role of innovation is strengthened when a supplier has similar technological capabilities to the focal firm. We also find that climate risk exposure impacts supply chain leakage in an asymmetrical pattern—focal firm climate risks heighten leakage while supplier climate risks mitigate leakage. Our findings suggest that supply chain leakage may not be completely driven by pollution haven motives, but by supply chain innovation and optimization that may be beneficial in the long term.

The Potential for Urban Vegetation to Mitigate Ambient Air Pollution Threats to Public Health

&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; This paper assesses the threat that ambient air pollution poses to urban public health and the potential role of urban vegetation to mitigate those threats. Air pollution is a major global risk to health, especially in urban areas. In this paper, four major air pollutants were assessed: particulate matter, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. These pollutants were found to have several adverse effects, including increasing mortality and respiratory morbidity. These pollutants come from a variety of sources, but a major contributor in urban areas is the burning of fossil fuels in automobiles. The adverse health effects of pollution are expected to grow as climate change worsens air quality. Research and case studies find that urban vegetation can filter air and remove pollutants through deposition and stomatal uptake. The effectiveness of air pollution removal is dependent upon specific variables, including leaf characteristics, type of vegetation, and seasons. Urban vegetation may worsen air quality in some cases due to slowing ventilation and producing biological volatile organic compounds. While urban vegetation has potential to mitigate ambient air pollution, conducting site specific research is needed when implementing greenspace policies.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D;

Accounting for violent conflict risk in planetary defense decisions

This paper provides the first-ever survey of the implications of violent conflict risk for planetary defense program decisions. Arguably, the aim of planetary defense should be to make Earth safer from all threats, including but not limited to threats from near-Earth objects (NEOs). Insofar as planetary defense projects affect other risks besides NEOs, these other risks should be taken into account. This paper evaluates three potential effects of planetary defense programs on violent conflict risk. First, planetary defense may offer a constructive model for addressing a major global risk. By documenting the history of its successes and failures, the planetary defense community can aid efforts to address other global risks, including but not limited to violent conflict. Second, the proposed use of nuclear explosions for NEO deflection and disruption could affect the role of nuclear weapons in violent conflict risk. The effect may be such that nuclear deflection/disruption would increase aggregate risks to human society. However, the effect is difficult to assess, mainly due to ambiguities in violent conflict risk. Third, planetary defense could reduce violent conflict risk by addressing the possibility of NEO collisions being mistaken as violent attacks and inadvertently triggering violent conflict. False alarms mistaken as real attacks are a major concern, especially as a cause of nuclear war. Improved awareness of NEOs and communication between astronomers and military officials could help resolve NEO false alarms. Each of these three effects of planetary defense programs on violent conflict risk can benefit from interaction between the communities that study and address NEO and violent conflict risks.

Protecting From Malware Obfuscation Attacks Through Adversarial Risk Analysis.

Malware constitutes a major global risk affecting millions of users each year. Standard algorithms in detection systems perform insufficiently when dealing with malware passed through obfuscation tools. We illustrate this studying in detail an open source metamorphic software, making use of a hybrid framework to obtain the relevant features from binaries. We then provide an improved alternative solution based on adversarial risk analysis which we illustrate describe with anexample.