Major Global Economies Research Articles

Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world

This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.

Unveiling the Economic Impact of Technology Trade in Leading Global Economies

Abstract In today's rapidly evolving technological era, high-tech trade is not just a part of international commerce but a key factor that shapes the economic landscapes of nations. The objective of this paper is to analyze how technological innovation, as represented by high-tech exports, contributes to economic growth and to identify the disparities in economic progress among countries with different levels of integration into the global high-tech market. This paper focuses on the importance of high-technology trade in economic development. Specifically, it aims to establish a connection between technology-intensive exports and Gross Domestic Product in three major global economies: China, the United States, and the European Union. The study's empirical evidence strongly supports a notable association between high-technology exports and the growth of gross domestic product, thereby reaffirming the crucial role of technological trade in enhancing economic development. Furthermore, the analysis provides additional insight by highlighting those economies with extensive involvement in the global high-technology market experience superior economic growth. This underscores the vital significance of technological innovation and trade integration in attaining a competitive advantage in the global economic landscape. This study adds to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the economic consequences of technology trade, highlighting the need for policy frameworks that encourage innovation and integration into the global high-technology market.

The Impact of E-Government on the New Generation Productive Capacities: Evidence from Cross-Country Data

The New Generation Productive Capacity Index (PCI) and the E-Government Development Index (EGDI) are increasingly used in various economies. Therefore, can e-government contribute to the continuous development of the new generation of productive capacity? Focusing on this important issue, this paper systematically examines the mechanism of the impact of e-government on the new generation of productive capacity and tests it using relevant data from major global economies. Firstly, this paper conducts regression analysis using the panel fixed-effects model, and the results show that e-government has a positive facilitating effect on the new generation of productive capacity. Secondly, the development of e-government will directly reduce the time, procedural, and monetary costs for enterprises and individuals to obtain government services, thereby promoting the development of production capacity. Finally, the specific changes in the structure of social expenditures are that government education expenditures and general expenditures will increase, but total government expenditures and household expenditures will not be affected by the construction of e-government. The research contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, in terms of research perspectives, this paper extends the research on e-government’s ability to improve the efficiency of governments and organizations in handling affairs and its impact on the productive capacity of a society. Second, it contributes to the theory on the topic of e-government. This paper proposes a general equilibrium model to reveal the impact of e-government construction on a government and the public, and to more comprehensively reveal the impact mechanism of e-government construction in the whole economy. Third, this paper contributes empirical evidence. This paper utilizes the data of the major economies around the world to reveal the mutual influence between the construction of e-government and the new generation of productive capacity, and then effectively proves the specific impact of e-government on governments, enterprises, and individuals through the test of cost mechanism and financial mechanism. Different from the existing literature, this paper focuses on the impact of e-government on the new generation of productive capacity, revealing that e-government construction does not increase the financial burden on governments but reduces the burden on firms and individuals, thus providing new insights into the productivity effects of e-government development.

Natural resources utilization efficiency evaluation, determinant of productivity change, and production technology heterogeneity across developed and developing G20 economies

Efficiently utilizing natural resources (NRs) and enhancing their productivity growth are crucial factors for sustainable economic growth in major global economies. Further production technologies heterogeneity among developed and developed G20 countries is vital to natural resource utilization efficiency (NRUE). To this end, the estimation of NRUE, natural resources total factor productivity, and technological gap ratio (TGR) is worth investigating. This study employed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Super-SBM, Meta-frontier analysis, and the Malmquist productivity index to evaluate NRUE, TGR, and productivity changes among G20 countries from 1995 to 2020. The average Natural Resource utilization Efficiency (NRUE) among G20 countries is 0.7071, indicating an improvement potential of around 29.29% in natural resource conversion. Developed G20 economies have a natural resource utilization efficiency (NRUE) of 0.9528, higher than that of the NRUE (0.506) of developing G20 countries. Developed countries have a TGR of 0.9962, which is significantly higher than the TGR of developing countries at 0.6746, indicating a significant gap in production technology. Total factor productivity growth of 0.8 % was witnessed in developed countries while developing countries demonstrated a decline of 0.6 percent in Total Factor Productivity Change (TFPC) over the study period. Analyzing the decomposition of TFPC reveals technological change as the predominant factor influencing productivity change in G20 economies instead of efficiency changes. A Mann-Whitney U test has proved the existence of significant statistical differences in average NRUE, TGR, and technological change (TC) levels between developed and developing G20 countries.

Financial cycle comovement with monetary and macroprudential policy and global factors: Evidence from India

This paper assesses the interaction of the financial cycle with domestic and global factors. We assess the comovement of monetary and macroprudential policy stance towards financial cycle phases in India and analyze the external influence of two major global economies, the US and China, from 1990 to 2021. To measure the financial cycle, we use credit and equity prices derived from the low-frequency decomposition of wavelet analysis. The analysis suggests that the amplitude of the downturn phase is much smaller than the upswing phase, suggesting the downturn phase of the financial cycle is considerably milder in India. Results indicate that the procyclicality of monetary policy and macroprudential regulations dominates throughout the upward phase of the financial cycle. Further, the interest rate spectrum, short, intermediate, and extended-term rates are discovered to move together. Also, the monetary and macroprudential policies complemented one another throughout the sample period, indicating the effectiveness of these policies in dampening financial imbalances. Based on wavelet coherency analysis, the results of global factors indicate that India shares a long and stable credit relationship with the US. This credit relationship has weakened with China in post-global financial crisis. In comparison, the Indian equity market displays a strong relationship with the US and the Chinese equity markets only during the financial crisis and remains insulated during normal periods. These results thus suggest that in an emerging market economy like India, credit growth in the US creates significant long-term effects, whereas only during crisis periods do the equity markets of the US and China create financial instability in India.

IPO Fund Raising and Chinese Markets IPO Suspension

During the period spanning from 2007 to 2021, China had substantial increase in its Gross Domestic Production (GDP). However, it is noteworthy that this rise was not mirrored by a commensurate expansion in China's A-share market. When examining the performance of China's stock market in relation to other major global economies within the same time frame, it becomes evident that the overall returns of China's stock market are comparatively lower. For example, Standard & Poors 500 increased 236.11%, Nasdaq Composite Index increased 547.75%, the German Stock Index 30 increased 109.99%, and Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei 225) increased 66.21%, whereas Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index increased 33.41%. Based on the monthly Initial Public Offering (IPO) proceeds of China's stock market from 2007 to 2021, this paper comprehensively examines the impact of IPO activities on China's stock market, including the correlation coefficients among IPO fundraised, index amplitude, index return, and GDP. By studying the correlation between the Chinese All-securities Index (CSI) data and IPO fundraising, as well as exploring the impact of policy changes on the market, it can be concluded that IPO fundraising itself has a limited impact on market returns. The low yield in China's country's stock market might be due to corporate information asymmetry, corporate information fraud, and imperfect supervision. The contributions of this paper include the summary and interpretation of China's IPO and related data, the interpretation of China's IPO reform and other policy actions, and the suggestions for the future development direction of China's market.

NON-LINEAR EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON OIL PALM YIELD: A NOTE BASED ON PANEL THRESHOLD ANALYSIS

The effect of climate change on agriculture and food production has emerged as one of the major concerns of major global economies, especially given that the global population is projected to reach 10.9 billion people by the end of the 21st century (United Nations, 2019). Crops react differently to climate change and hence it is crucial to understand its effect on specific agricultural plants. Specifically, the impact of climate change on agriculture yield may not be linear. As such, this study investigated the impact of climate factors on oil palm yield using state level data from Malaysia. The results suggested that temperature and oil palm yield have a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship. In addition, rainfall has a positive impact on oil palm yield.

Global climate governance leadership: Current status, measurement, and improvement paths

In an era characterized by increased global competition, global climate governance has evolved beyond the confines of environmental issues alone, highlighting the critical importance of international collaboration. This study presents a comprehensive leadership evaluation index system for global climate governance, premised on an extensive analysis of leadership theories. The system explores leadership through three dimensions: directional leadership, structural leadership, and cognitive leadership. In applying this system, the study establishes a set of stringent criteria at the intersections of national carbon emissions and economic development, subsequently selecting 53 countries that serve as representative subjects in the various climate negotiation interest groups for evaluation and analysis. Finally, the research achieves the following findings: 1) A significant difference in leadership remains between developed and developing countries. In an in-depth comparison across the three major global economies—China, the United States, and the European Union —China's leadership is observed to be in a relatively tenuous position. This is particularly evident in structural leadership, where the difference is most pronounced, while the gap in cognitive leadership is comparatively narrower. 2) The study reveals a marked decoupling between power and responsibilities in the climate negotiation interest groups. Countries facing greater pressure to reduce emissions exhibit lower leadership capability, whereas countries with higher historical emissions exhibit greater leadership capability. 3) Utilizing the DEMATEL model, the study identifies critical indicators of carbon neutrality leadership and engages in a quantitative analysis of pathways to strengthen national climate governance leadership. The findings suggest that policies centered on carbon neutrality and proactive international engagement in climate governance stand out as viable strategies for enhancing leadership capability.

Development Status of Digital Economy in Northeast Asian Countries and China’s Opportunities

With the vigorous development of digital technology, the development of the digital economy has become an important component of the global economy. Against the background of negative growth of major global economies hit hard by the COVID-19 epidemic, the steadily rising digital economy has become a key force to boost the global economy and an important engine to promote global economic development. Northeast Asian countries should use the dividends released by the digital economy to promote the coordinated development of digital technology innovation within the region, respond to technological revolution and industrial transformation, and build new international competitive advantages. This article provides a detailed overview of the current development status of digital economy in various countries in Northeast Asia, analyzes the challenges faced by countries in the region in developing cross-border digital economic and trade cooperation from three aspects: political mutual trust, digital divide, and network security. It further proposes to build a cross-border digital service trade platform in Northeast Asia, establish a China North Russia Far East digital free trade zone, so as to promote the deepening of cooperation and common development in digital trade within the region.

The Different Impacts of a Strong Dollar on Developed and Emerging Market Economies

The US dollar index has continued to rise and has reached its highest level since 2022. Based on the US dollar's status as the dominant international currency, this round of the dollar's significant and rapid appreciation has a significant impact on the global economic and financial situation. This study aims to examine how this round of dollar appreciation affects the major global economies and the extent of its impact. This paper analyzes the impact of a strong dollar on emerging economies and non-US developed economies and draws a comparison between the two impacts. The findings of this study reveal that the negative impact of the current round of strong dollar on the global economy outweighs the positive impact. This impact is evident in the form of hyperinflation, international foreign debt, and other adverse outcomes. Finally, this paper provides informative comments for emerging economies and non-US developed economies to better mitigate the challenges posed by the current round of dollar appreciation.

Tracing metal footprints via global renewable power value chains

The globally booming renewable power industry has stimulated an unprecedented interest in metals as key infrastructure components. Many economies with different endowments and levels of technology participate in various production stages and cultivate value in global renewable power industry production networks, known as global renewable power value chains (RPVCs), complicating the identification of metal supply for the subsequent low-carbon power generation and demand. Here, we use a multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) combined with a value chain decomposition model to trace the metal footprints (MFs) and value-added of major global economies’ renewable power sectors. We find that the MFs of the global renewable power demand increased by 97% during 2005—2015. Developed economies occupy the high-end segments of RPVCs while allocating metal-intensive (but low value-added) production activities to developing economies. The fast-growing demand for renewable power in developed economies or developing economies with upper middle income, particularly China, is a major contributor to the embodied metal transfer increment within RPVCs, which is partly offset by the declining metal intensities in developing economies. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a metal-efficient and green supply chain for upstream suppliers as well as downstream renewable power installers for just transition in the power sector across the globe.

How macroeconomic factors drive the linkages between inflation and oil markets in global economies? A multiscale analysis

This paper examines the nonlinear relationships between oil and inflation for twelve major global economies in the presence of important macroeconomic variables. Using nonparametric quantile causality approach, we show strong evidence of causality-in-variance from inflation to changes in oil prices for all economies across different quantiles with the exception of Australia. On the other hand, evidence of a causality-in-mean from oil to inflation is identified for Australia, Canada, Greece, the UK, and the US and a causality-in-variance in the same direction for almost all economies, exhibiting a hump-shaped pattern across the quantiles. Results for partial and multivariate wavelet approaches show that the macroeconomic factors drive and accentuate the oil-inflation co-movements under all frequencies and over time. These results have significant implications for investors and policy makers.

How Do Block Built Environments Affect Daily Leisure Walking among the Elderly? A Empirical Study of Gaoyou, China

Currently, the major global economies have entered an aging society. The promotion of physical activity is an important way to improve the health level of the elderly, and the study of health geography is a popular interdisciplinary research topic. This study selected 12 representative districts in Guoyu City, Jiangsu Province, to conduct a questionnaire survey on the activity range and behavior pattern of leisure walking among the elderly. We analyzed the relationship between the environment factors of different blocks and the walking activities of the elderly. The results showed that: (1) A range of 800 m from home is the most important leisure walking space for the urban elderly, and a distance between 800 and 1500 m is an important optional leisure walking space. (2) The density of open green space, commercial facilities, and public service facilities has a significant impact on the elderly’s leisure walking activities. (3) The socioeconomic background and health status of the elderly have a significant impact on their leisure walking activities. Healthy physical conditions can motivate the elderly to form good exercise habits. The government must optimize the built environment elements in a targeted living space to encourage physical activity among the elderly.

Does digital finance promote the green innovation of China's listed companies?

As the world's largest manufacturing country, China has been the object of considerable concern for the international community, specifically with regard to China's environmental pollution and carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the rise of digital finance in China has been having an increasingly extensive impact. In this context, this research is devoted to testing the role of digital finance in promoting green innovation; this is done by using the 2011 to 2018 data of Chinese A-share listed companies. The baseline results show that, on average, every 1% increase in digital finance will lead to a 0.82% increase in green innovation, with a significant level of 1%. After changing the measurement method of core explanatory variables, removing samples from the financial industry, further adding control variables at the regional level, and using instrumental variable regression, the baseline results stay robust. Further dynamic analysis shows that digital finance has a lasting promoting effect. A mechanism analysis shows that digital finance alleviates the financing constraints of listed companies and improves the overall innovation of the relevant city, thus improving green innovation ability. The positive impact of digital finance is more prominent in state-owned enterprises, economically-developed eastern regions, and high-pollution industries. Meanwhile, digital finance also retains a certain degree of significance in private enterprises, central and western regions, and low-pollution industries. This work provides empirical evidence of China's high-quality development based on digital finance. The results also have implications for major global economies in terms of meeting their carbon targets.

Higher education expansion and national savings level: Evidence from macro data

Through empirical research, this paper discusses the relationship between the expansion of higher education and the level of national savings. The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of the expansion of higher education on the national savings of the world's major economies and its internal mechanism.This paper selects the panel data of 30 major global economies such as Russia, the United States and China from 1991 to 2019, and makes an empirical analysis by using the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM). The research conclusion shows that the higher education expansion has a significant negative impact on the level of national savings level. In terms of heterogeneity analysis, it is found that in Asia, the negative effect of higher education development on national savings is greater than that in Europe and other regions; At the same time, among the seven emerging economies such as Russia, India and China, the impact of the development level of higher education on savings is slightly greater than that of the global sample; At last, we design the intermediary effect model to test the impact mechanism, and find that the expansion of higher education will reduce the level of national savings by reducing the risk of unemployment. We believe that the expansion of higher education can effectively reduce the level of national savings by reducing national preventive savings motivation, optimizing national investment and financial allocation and promoting national human capital investment to a certain extent.

Does Lockdown Reduce Employment in Major Developing Countries? An Assessment Based on Multiregional Input–Output Model and Scenario Analysis

With the development of global value chains, more and more countries are involved in global trade, which has brought an extensive social impact. Past studies on the employment impact of trade have pointed out that free trade has significantly boosted employment in developing economies, with large populations working in export-related jobs along the value chains. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused global trade protectionism to become more rampant. This study aims to establish a trade employment effect accounting model, based on the comparison of multiple scenarios, to discuss the employment impact of trade lockdown on major developing and developed countries. Specifically, based on a multi-regional input–output model, we map the flow network of trade-induced employment in 15 major global economies, and the scenarios of free trade and restricted trade are simulated to determine the employment impact of protectionism across multiple trade patterns. The results show that the current labor flow induced by global trade mainly flows from developing countries such as China and India to developed countries such as the EU and the United States. In the total employment induced by trade, the proportion of final products trade reached 42.82%. Trade protection would cut 19.86 million jobs worldwide. Under the trade restriction scenario, employment in developing countries would be reduced, with China and India losing 45.24 million and 10.10 million jobs, respectively. People working in the final product processing trade face the greatest risk of unemployment, especially in manufacturing and services. Among developed countries, the EU and the US would add 5.52 and 2.23 million jobs due to industrial repatriation.

Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?

In order to deepen the understanding of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market and to enhance the risk response capability, this study analyzed the logical relationship between major public health emergencies and international oil price changes, identified the change points, and calculated the probability of abrupt changes to international oil prices. Based on monthly data during six major public health emergencies from 2009 to 2020, this study built a product partition model. The results show that only the influenza A (H1N1) and COVID-19 pandemics were significant reasons for abrupt changes in international oil prices. Furthermore, the wild poliovirus epidemic, the Ebola epidemic, the Zika epidemic, and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had limited effects. Overall, the outbreak of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in major global economies has a more pronounced impact on international oil prices.

On the Design of a Decision Support System for Robotic Equipment Adoption in Construction Processes

The construction sector is one of the major global economies and is characterised by low productivity and high inefficiencies, but could highly benefit from the introduction of robotic equipment in terms of productivity, safety, and quality. As the development and the availability of robotic solutions for the construction sector increases, the evaluation of their potential benefits compared to conventional processes that are currently adopted on construction sites becomes compelling. To this end, we exploit Bayesian decision theory and apply an axiomatic design guideline for the development of a decision-theoretic expert system that: (i) evaluates the utility of available alternatives based on evidence; (ii) accounts for uncertainty; and (iii) exploits both expert knowledge and preferences of the users. The development process is illustrated by means of exemplary use case scenarios that compare manual and robotic processes. A use case scenario that compares manual and robotic marking and spraying is chosen for describing the development process in detail. Findings show how decision making in equipment selection can be supported by means of dedicated systems for decision support, developed in collaboration with domain experts.

The Green-Innovation-Inducing Effect of a Unit Progressive Carbon Tax

The major global economies are facing increasing pressure to reduce their carbon emissions. Introducing environmental policy instruments to stimulate green innovation is key to mitigating global warming. We propose a carbon tax design with a typical green innovation orientation that links carbon taxes with the low-carbon technology (LCT) of enterprises and imposes a progressive tax on heterogeneous enterprises with LCT stock to encourage green innovation. This study used a dynamic evolution game model based on the Stackelberg model of heterogeneous enterprises with LCT stock to analyze the green-innovation-inducing effect of unit progressive carbon taxes. A unit progressive carbon tax could encourage enterprises to participate in green innovation, regardless of their initial green innovation willingness. The progressive tax rate was more effective than a fixed rate for stimulating green innovation by all enterprises. There was a marginal diminishing effect of increases in the tax rate. An increase in the innovation cost coefficient of enterprises reduced the green-innovation-inducing effect of the unit progressive carbon tax. Increasing the tax rate was effective only under normal circumstances. A decline in the carbon reduction in enterprises also reduced the green-innovation-inducing effect of the unit progressive carbon tax. Furthermore, increasing the tax rate when the carbon reduction amount was extremely low caused enterprises to abandon green innovation.

Technological innovation, industrial structural change and carbon emission transferring via trade-------An agent-based modeling approach

By introducing an agent-based modeling approach, this paper proposes the diffusion of technological innovation behaviors in simulation models. On this basis, a mass of heterogeneous firms within an input-output analytical framework are included to simulate policy scenarios in order to explore how firms' technological innovation affects industrial structural change, resulting in carbon emission transferring via trade (ETT), in the major global economies (i.e., China, Japan, the United States, Russia, India, and the European Union) between 2007 and 2030. One important finding is that there are sectoral and regional differences regarding the impacts of two types of technological innovation (i.e., product innovation and process innovation) on industrial structural adjustment and ETT. Moreover, compared to process innovation, product innovation is more conducive to lessening the impacts of trade on regional economies’ emissions. Another important finding is that the volume of ETT for these economies will continue to increase from 2012 to 2030, indicating that with the acceleration of regional industrial structural adjustment, the impacts of trade on regional carbon emissions accounting and reduction obligation assignments are potentially aggravating. Overall, this paper provides a new perspective for researchers to investigate industrial structural change and the resulting ETT. Moreover, to promote regional economic growth and tackle global climate change, this paper also gives policy makers the theoretical foundation to formulate more targeted regional economic governance measures.