Global climate governance leadership: Current status, measurement, and improvement paths

Abstract

In an era characterized by increased global competition, global climate governance has evolved beyond the confines of environmental issues alone, highlighting the critical importance of international collaboration. This study presents a comprehensive leadership evaluation index system for global climate governance, premised on an extensive analysis of leadership theories. The system explores leadership through three dimensions: directional leadership, structural leadership, and cognitive leadership. In applying this system, the study establishes a set of stringent criteria at the intersections of national carbon emissions and economic development, subsequently selecting 53 countries that serve as representative subjects in the various climate negotiation interest groups for evaluation and analysis. Finally, the research achieves the following findings: 1) A significant difference in leadership remains between developed and developing countries. In an in-depth comparison across the three major global economies—China, the United States, and the European Union —China's leadership is observed to be in a relatively tenuous position. This is particularly evident in structural leadership, where the difference is most pronounced, while the gap in cognitive leadership is comparatively narrower. 2) The study reveals a marked decoupling between power and responsibilities in the climate negotiation interest groups. Countries facing greater pressure to reduce emissions exhibit lower leadership capability, whereas countries with higher historical emissions exhibit greater leadership capability. 3) Utilizing the DEMATEL model, the study identifies critical indicators of carbon neutrality leadership and engages in a quantitative analysis of pathways to strengthen national climate governance leadership. The findings suggest that policies centered on carbon neutrality and proactive international engagement in climate governance stand out as viable strategies for enhancing leadership capability.