Abstract
In order to deepen the understanding of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market and to enhance the risk response capability, this study analyzed the logical relationship between major public health emergencies and international oil price changes, identified the change points, and calculated the probability of abrupt changes to international oil prices. Based on monthly data during six major public health emergencies from 2009 to 2020, this study built a product partition model. The results show that only the influenza A (H1N1) and COVID-19 pandemics were significant reasons for abrupt changes in international oil prices. Furthermore, the wild poliovirus epidemic, the Ebola epidemic, the Zika epidemic, and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had limited effects. Overall, the outbreak of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in major global economies has a more pronounced impact on international oil prices.
Highlights
As global industrialization continued to increase, economic development became increasingly dependent on oil [1,2]
The product partition model (PPM) can effectively identify the probability of abrupt changes in monthly international oil prices, which makes it possible to infer the causes of sudden changes in oil prices from the results of the changes
This study aimed tothe study the of impact of multiple on international oil price international oil price changes is derived from identifying abrupt changes in international changes
Summary
As global industrialization continued to increase, economic development became increasingly dependent on oil [1,2]. Oil prices are determined by demand and supply. Previous research has examined other factors that may contribute to fluctuations of oil prices, such as military conflicts, war, geopolitics, terrorism, and macroeconomic-related or policy-related uncertainties [4,5,6,7,8,9]. Based on an analysis of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014, Baumeister and Kilian evaluated the impact of exogenous factors such as the war in Iran and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the fluctuations in oil prices [1]. White et al adopted a VAR model to analyze the risk spillover effects in financial markets and found that shocks from crisis events could transmit risks in financial markets [12]
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