Main Trading Partners Research Articles

FIXING THE MIX

We are entering the end game for this Parliament and so it is now time to focus on the policy horizon. In the run-up to the next election, the government’s pieces will be moved by our fourth Prime Minister since the announcement of the advisory referendum on EU membership in February 2016. The rapidity in turnover of political leadership tells us starkly that there are deep problems with our economic and social performance, relative to expectations and to that of our main trading partners. The overriding narrative is of a kingdom of nations that have taken a huge step backwards in international standing and in the fulfilment of domestic objectives. At this historic moment with the accession of Charles III, we are not this time faced with post-war reconstruction, industrial decline, the need to deregulate or the need to hitch our colours to the rise of the City. It is more a problem of how to bring the country and devolved nations together and aim for economic and social progress for all. That implies both broadening our regional focus and narrowing our gambit to what institutions and policies the UK needs as a small open economy in order to deal with a global economic situation we must take as given and no longer made in our image. No new IMF or World Bank would, for example, offer the UK a seat at the top table, which was certainly the natural order in the first half of the twentieth century.

СУЧАСНІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ СПІВПРАЦІ УКРАЇНИ ТА ЄС У СФЕРІ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ЗОВНІШНЬОЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ

The article examines modern trends of development of Ukraine's foreign economic activity as an important component of foreign economic security. The Law of Ukraine "On National Security" defines the fundamental national interests of Ukraine, through which the idea of foreign economic security of the state, because sovereignty and territorial integrity, economic development, close cooperation with European countries and organizations are possible through the development and implementation of effective public mechanisms in the fild of foreign economic security. It is noted that foreign economic activity is the basis for export-import operations, purchase and sale of goods and services, filling the budget, realization of national interests, ensuring economic security and more. It is established that Ukraine is an active participant in international economic activity. As of the beginning of 2022, Ukraine carried out trade operations with more than 170 countries. In 2021, compared to 2020, imports of goods increased by 34% to $72.84 billion, and exports - by 38.4%, to $68.07 billion. At the same time, in 2021 the export of Ukrainian goods and services to the EU reached $26.8 billion. The volume of imports of 27 EU countries to Ukraine amounted to $28.9 billion. The EU is Ukraine's main trading partner at the present stage. The article points out that as a result of hostilities there have been significant changes in Ukraine's foreign economic activity. Analysis of this impact on foreign economic security can be divided into the following groups of problems: the inability to carry out production; difficulties in ensuring the sale of goods; financial problems; difficulties in communications, investment and social projects. It is noted that in support of Ukraine, the European Union is lifting trade restrictions on Ukrainian exports. The abolition of customs duties applies to exports of industrial products, fruits and vegetables from Ukraine, as well as anti- dumping duties on steel imports. Thus, the European Union is trying to support Ukraine's economic system, create conditions for at least minimal development and economic activity.

Ranljivost slovenskega prehranskega sistema v povezavi z vojno v Ukrajini

The Russian-Ukrainian war brings many economic and social challenges. Among other, it causes turmoil in the global energy and food markets, affects the functioning of global food systems and threatens food security. Ukraine and Russia are important global exporters of cereals, oilseeds, fossil fuels, and mineral fertilizers. The war disrupts the flow of these goods to the world market, which has greatly increased their prices and in some countries caused food shortages. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the war on food chains in Slovenia. For this purpose, the self-sufficiency in cereals, the agri-food trade between Slovenia and the two countries at war, and the prices of some agricultural commodities and inputs were analysed. The results show that the import of agri-food products from Ukraine and Russia to Slovenia is not significant, but the negative effects of the war are felt nevertheless. These are shown mainly through the rising prices of production inputs, as well as uncertain political and economic developments, which affect stakeholders along the entire food chains. Due to various factors, the world prices of agricultural inputs and commodities were already at a very high level even before the Russian invasion, and additional pressure on prices was caused by the outbreak of war. The European Union, which is Slovenia’s main trading partner, covers domestic needs for most agricultural products through production, so there is no threat of food shortages. Nevertheless, food affordability remains a major concern due to high market prices and inflationary trends.

ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИЙ

The issues of the economic security of the state in modern conditions of the new world policy in the field of geopolitics and geoeconomics are discussed in the article. The current new world position in the conditions of sanctions of leading world economic powers against the Russian Federation is presented, this situation forces the world community the need to make new strategic decisions to ensure the country's economic security. As a result of the study of this area, it was revealed that in international relations in the modern world, the system of monopolarity gradually begins to change towards the multipolar system in the world arena. The sanctions introduced have a great influence on international trade relations and how, a consequence is observed by the change in the polarity of the world system especially in the field of international economic and political relations. The statistical analysis of the trade relations of the Russian Federation, China and the USA convincingly showed that the introduction of political and economic sanctions against the Russian Federation affects all world states, which forced the countries to ensure the economic and political security of its state, in extreme cases, to maintain sovereignty or neutrality. In addition, a change in the main trading partners in the countries under consideration is observed and, as a result, an increase or decrease in trade between these countries. And most importantly, almost all countries began to look for a solution to the issue of political and economic security primarily with cross -border countries, as well as the adoption of measures aimed at overcoming the current situations and the consequences of the influence of sanctions regarding their countries

DETERMINANTES DAS EXPORTAÇÕES ESTADUAIS BRASILEIRAS NO SETOR TÊXTIL E DE CONFECÇÕES NO COMÉRCIO BILATERAL COM A CHINA

The study analyzed the determinants of Brazilian textile and apparel exports to China, by state, from 2002 to 2017, using a dynamic panel using the Generalized Moments Method (GMM). The main variables considered were external income, state GDP and real exchange rate, all weighted by the weight of bilateral textile trade between each Brazilian state and China. The results showed that textile exports from Brazilian states to China are determined by foreign income, China's GDP (demand side), and state GDP (supply side). In recent years, China has become one of Brazil's biggest trading partners and is the main trading partner in the textile and apparel sector. Brazilian states can create dynamism in international trade, regardless of the federal structure.

THE FOOD ASPECT OF THE AUSTRALIA–CHINA TRADE DISPUTES

Australia–China bilateral relations have been business oriented and pragmatic for at least 30 years. However, the period of 2019 – mid-2022 brought a more emotional political component to the interaction of the two countries. Contradictions began to accumulate between Australia and China, including those related to the vision of the future of the AsiaPacific, which subsequently turned into an urgent confrontation. Australian academic and political circles have long feared that China might take advantage of the status of the main Australia's trading partner and use the "trade punishment" measures amid growing diplomatic tensions between the two countries. The events of the past two years have made it possible to analyze these concerns in practice and determine the place of the food issue in Australia– China trade disputes. The provisions and conclusions presented in this article are based on official documents, news agency reports, as well as research by Asia-Pacific scientists.

Болевые точки Пекина – 3 (Смена экономической модели и внешнеполитические риски)

The consequences of COVID 19, both inside and outside China, especially in the countries – major importers of Chinese products, have negatively impacted the Chinese economy. These negative socio-economic consequences forced Beijing to accelerate the transition to a relatively new economic development model, which was marked in the early 2000s. The main component of this model is the expansion of domestic consumption and, accordingly, a further increase of the contribution of this indicator to the Chinese GDP itself and of its growth rate. However, this does not mean that China will abandon economic expansion and the implementation of its foreign economic and initiatives. Their importance as structural parts of the new economic model will continue and even grow. The acceleration of the transition to the dominance of domestic consumption in economic development is additionally conditioned by the foreign policy deadlock in which China found itself at the end of 2020. Despite the world’s fastest economic recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic, China has been unable to take advantage of this advantage effectively. Chinese “mask” diplomacy did not bring the desired results for Beijing – the PRC was not able to raise the leader’s torch temporarily lost by the United States. On the contrary, under the influence of Western propaganda, the contradiction in the perception of China as “our own” in the market sphere and “an alien” in the sphere of ideology has intensified. At the same time, due to increased competition in high-tech markets, in particular, 5G communication technologies, the ideological “alienation” of China is beginning to be used by Western countries in market wars in their favor. The forecast of economic development both by international and Chinese experts assumes the growth rate of China’s GDP in 2021 will be in the range of 6–8%. In our opinion, this is an overly optimistic estimate, and the corresponding figure will probably be 5–6%. The PRC is entering the 14th Five-Year Plan amid greater uncertainty: the prospects for the recovery of the world economy as a whole and, in particular, of the main Chinese trading partners, are not clear; limited instability is possible due to the accelerated change in the model of economic development; the volume of Chinese GDP has reached more than 15 trillion USD, therefore, each percent of its growth has become significantly “heavier” and more difficult to achieve. At the same time, the primacy in economic recovery and the continued potential for the expansion of the Chinese middle class bring positive contribution to the economic prospects of the PRC.

Ռուսաստանի դեմ պատժամիջոցների ազդեցությունը Հայաստանի տնտեսության վրա. հնարավորություն, թե՞ խոչընդոտներ / Impact of Sanctions Against Russia on the Economy of Armenia: an Opportunity or an Obstacle?

The paper deals with the impact of sanctions against Russia on the economy of Armenia. Under difficult economic conditions, the pressure of sanctions on the economy of the Republic of Armenia is great, since Russia is the main trade and investment partner of the Republic of Armenia. The sanctions led to a slowdown in the global economy and accelerated inflation. In turn, the EAEU countries, including Armenia, fell under the influence of various factors of the turbulent external environment. It should be noted that today Armenia was able to minimize the negative impact of the sanctions applied against Russia on the economy, and to some extent take advantage of the opportunities that have opened up.

Trade Flows Between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Dynamics and Prospects

The Eastern Partnership is a part of the European Neighbourhood Policy focusing on the EU’s Eastern neighbours. Its main objective is to deepen the political and economic integration of the EU with six countries in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The aim of this paper is to assess the development of EU trade relations with Eastern Partnership Countries from 2002 to 2021 and to indicate its prospects. The results show that the EU is in a group of main trading partners of the Eastern Partnership countries. The EU noticed both: a trade surplus with Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Armenia (except in 2005); and a trade deficit with Azerbaijan. The volumes of imports and exports had increased over the years which also led to better economic integration with the EU. However, the future EU-Eastern Partnership trade characteristics and dynamics remain unknown due to the Russian invasion on Ukraine that caused troubles in trade flows in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

The role of international standards in improving labour law of the Republic of Kazakhstan to ensure the well-being of society

The striving of the Republic of Kazakhstan for international integration and entry into influential international structures is impossible without the introduction of advanced experience in the field of labour law. Therewith, the labour law of each country is a unique and very broad branch of law; therefore, for the purposes of this study, such parameters as wages, provisions on weekends and holidays, as well as the issue of concluding and terminating an employment contract as the most fundamental labour law issues. To achieve the objectives of the study, the comparative method is used as the main one, both in horizontal and vertical as-pects. At the same time, the classical inductive method is used to formulate many provisions as an addition. For comparison, the authors of the study take the expe-rience of the United States, Russia, and China as the main trading partners of Ka-zakhstan, relations with which are of decisive importance for the country. From the stated provisions, it was concluded that the labour law of the Republic of Ka-zakhstan is quite progressive, although they need to be adjusted. Among the ana-lysed provisions, first of all, it is necessary to correct the size of the minimum wage, as the most important economic and legal indicator, and also to consider the pos-sibility of extending the minimum paid leave from 24 to 28 days. Therewith, the provisions on a written employment contract and the protection of employees from unjustified dismissal are quite progressive.

Барьеры российско-китайской торговли: проблемы оценки

The article discusses the problems of evaluating trade barriers. Based on a wide definition of the concept of «trade barriers», taking into account the method of influence on external trade and degree of controllability, the author identified four types of them: direct conjunctural, direct structural, indirect conjunctural and indirect structural. The ranks of countries – the main trading partners of Russia in terms of the level of analyzed barriers regarding Russian exports for 2015–2019 and median ranks characterizing the levels of their complex barrier were determined. As a result of the conducted cross-national comparison, the PRC received the highest relative ranks in the level of barriers such as non-tariff, transport, institutional, social, and highest assessment of the level of complex barrier. The author concludes that indirect (social and demographic) barriers played the most important role in restraining the growth of Russian-Chinese trade in the study period

EU STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC CHANGES IN THE REGION WITH FOCUS ON CHINA

Kazakhstan has an important position as the EU´s main trading partner in Central Asia and the EU has been its largest trade partner as well as the largest source of foreign direct investment. The importance of China as trade and investment partner is rising, on the contrary, the EU’s share is declining. Even though there remains plenty of scope for further growth, mutual relations and cooperation are influenced by increased geopolitical tensions and geo-economic changes in the wider region. The paper evaluates the position of the EU and its strategic interests in Kazakhstan in the context of geopolitical and geo-economic changes in the region based on the assessment of the trade and investment position of the EU in comparison with the position of China.

Development of the agro-industrial complex in Kazakhstan

The article is devoted to the analysis of foreign trade in agricultural products of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The analysis of indicators of export of agricultural products of the country. In the process of studying the foreign trade turnover of agricultural products of Kazakhstan, identified the main trading partners or importers of agricultural products of the Republic.
 The analysis of changes in the structure of exports of agricultural products of the Republic to the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the rest of the world. The main agricultural products occupying significant shares in the structure of export of the Republic are determined. For the analysis, a statistical review of the dynamics of foreign trade in agricultural products over the last five years is presented. The analysis of indicators of production of agricultural products, as well as the share of manufactured products for export (Simić, Stankov, 2020). 
 The study confirmed that the share of agricultural exports in the overall structure of the country's exports is insignificant. A significant part of the exported agricultural products are directed to the CIS countries and neighboring countries. A significant part of the export of agricultural products falls on cereals. The share of this category of goods in the total income from exports of food and agricultural raw materials is 90 percent.
 Thus, exports and foreign trade in agricultural products in General are a source of growth of the agricultural economy for the country, the external factor is important to take into account when building forecasts of economic growth and modeling the economic policy of the country in the field of agriculture.

Food Security and COVID-19: Impacts and Resilience in Singapore

Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted food supply chains and threatened food security. Singapore is highly dependent on food imports and has an open economy that exposes it to volatile global markets, so it is acutely vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic on other countries, the effectiveness of measures taken by foreign governments to combat the spread of the virus and overall disruptions of international trade links. Proactive and reactive steps have been taken to protect Singapore's food supply chains against the adverse impacts of COVID-19. In this paper, we discuss food security in the city state, the impacts of COVID-19 in the population, the local production, and imports from two main trade partners: Malaysia and China. We conclude by acknowledging the complexity of achieving food security under the very difficult circumstances.

The competitiveness of China's seaweed products in the international market from 2002 to 2017

China is the most productive seaweed farming country in the world and her seaweed imports and exports have a significant impact on global seaweed trade commodities and food security. Nevertheless, few studies had delved into the main characteristics and development of China's seaweed farming industry. This paper aims to narrow this research gap by analyzing trade patterns in China's seaweed products and the international competitiveness of seaweed product by using the international market share index (IMS), the trade competitiveness index (TC), and revealed comparative advantage index (RCA) from 2002 to 2017. The results showed that Japan, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Chile, Peru, and the Republic of Korea are China's main trade partners, the total trade value of China's seaweed products has grown rapidly, its imports have gradually exceeded exports, the trade deficit continues to expand, and its competitiveness keeps decreasing. The reasons for this trend may include the changing seaweed trade commodity structure, product differentiation, increased government support in competing countries, and trade barriers among the trade partners. We propose actively expanding international trade markets, establishing a strong seaweed product processing industry to develop high value-added seaweed products, optimizing the trade commodity structure, and differentiating of seaweed products to improve the competitiveness of China's seaweed products.

Investment responses to trade liberalization: impact of CKFTA

Using data from Canadian and Korean public companies available at Bloomberg, this study attempts to demonstrate the relationship between investment in establishments and trade liberalization, an effect caused mainly by increased competitiveness. This project contributes to the studies previously conducted on the subject and adds information regarding countries with different peculiarities, such as Canada, better known for being the main trading partner of the USA and major producer of commodities, and South Korea, which for some decades has invested to become a reference in technology and world innovation. In line with previous studies, a negative and statistically significant relationship was found between investment and trade liberalization, an effect that was verified mainly for those establishments that are far from the frontier of the sector in which they operate, and for the firms in the frontier this effect is positive.

Türkiye ve Ana Ticaret Partnerleri için J Eğrisinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı Uygulaması

External trade cannot create the expected result for some countries due to their economic structures or policies. Economies could encounter severe foreign trade deficits and the risk of an economic crisis. Thus, researchers and policymakers analyse the dynamics of countries’ external trade balances. Turkey’s persistent current account deficit is one of the most significant macroeconomic problems. Turkey depreciated the Turkish Lira against foreign currencies to reduce its foreign trade deficit in the past. Using panel data analysis, the current study tests the J-curve for Turkey and its six main foreign trade partner countries - Russia, USA, Germany, UK, Italy, and China. Results do not support the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in the long run. Test results analysing the short-run indicate that the whole panel is statistically insignificant.

Trade potential of Rwanda: Policy implications from taxonomic analysis of quality of institutions

ABSTRACT The aim of research is to examine the tendencies in the positions of Rwanda over the years in institutional development and the potential trade directed to main trade partners. We evaluated the quality of institutions in Rwanda against the background of the Eastern African countries using method of taxonomy and assessed how Rwanda uses its potential in trade and its coverage in actual exports. We tested the hypothesis that the better quality of institutions is found, Rwandan indicative trade potential coverage ratio is higher. Results confirmed that the relation between quality of institutions and the indicative trade potential coverage ratio is not obvious in every product group, however, in most cases, there is a positive relationship. Moreover, the analysis allowed us to identify markets characterised by high export potential and still not adequately used.

Маркетинговий аналіз транспортних послуг України на зовнішньому ринку

Abstract. Introduction. The article is devoted to the analysis of transport services of Ukraine in the domestic and foreign markets and the state of its infrastructure, the search for promising areas of industry development. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to market research of transport services of Ukraine in the foreign market, to identify key factors and market trends and to find promising areas for further development of the industry. Various statistical methods were used to analyze and dynamics of indicators of export-import operations by transport services of Ukraine, PESTanalysis was used to identify key factors influencing the development of the industry; forecast models of export of transport services of Ukraine are constructed by means of the trend analysis. Results. The essence of the transport industry and transport services is considered. The existing key competitive advantages of Ukraine in the geopolitical location and state of transport infrastructure are named. The peculiarities of the marketing complex of transport services depending on the types of transport, the specifics of technological processes and the conditions of their implementation are substantiated. Classifications of types of transport and transport services are given. As a result of the analysis it was revealed that foreign trade in transport services is export-oriented, the trade balance is surplus, due to the advantage of export volumes by 5 times. The most important item of transport services in Ukraine is the transit of gas through pipelines. Sea and air transport were popular among domestic freight and passengers. In the structure of imports until 2019, air transport services amounted to 50.0%. A significant reduction in passenger traffic occurred under the influence of Covid 19. Named the main trading partners of export-import operations by transport services of Ukraine and regional leaders in freight traffic. The results of the PEST analysis and the low probability coefficient of the forecast model indicate a significant influence of political factors on the state of the transport services market in Ukraine. Conclusions. The main problems of the industry are: wear and tear of rolling stock, rising fuel tariffs, unsatisfactory condition of roads, the human factor, weather conditions, low quality of services and more. Improving the state of the industry is possible through: the adoption of a state development strategy and conditions of state support for exporters; development of complex logistics, application of information and digital technologies, expansion and improvement of services, openness and transparency of business conditions and business-state partnership, etc.

Cooperation between Russia and China in the oil and gas energy sector: common prerequisites, political and legal framework, key areas and development projects

China’s economic cooperation with Russia has been expanding since 2016. Since 2010, China has been the main trading partner for Russia, and in 2020 the volume of imported energy resources to China amounted to USD 32 billion with total imports of USD 130 billion - a record in the history of relations between the countries. The oil and gas sector is no exception in this case, and China is trying to increase its position on the import of Russian oil and gas by participating in the financing of various gas and oil pipelines being built near the border with Russia. At the same time, and from an economic point of view, China has no more profitable option to receive oil in large volumes, including to support heavy industry. The purpose of the work is to analyze the past experience of supporting oil and gas energy in the framework of cooperation projects between Russia and China. Scientific novelty. In this article, from the methodological point of view of a systematic retrospective analysis, the general prerequisites, the political and economic base of the study, the main trends and problems, directions and specific projects of cooperation between Russia and China in the oil and gas energy sector are considered. Practical significance. The results of the work will be useful for analyzing projects in the field of oil and gas cooperation at the country level.