Main Trading Partners Research Articles

ФАКТОРЫ РОСТА И ТРЕНДЫ МИРОВОЙ ТОРГОВЛИ

The article is devoted to an in-depth study of the modern factors and trends of the world trade. It provides an overview of the economic literature and development of theoretical frameworks of global trade factors. Three main factors are identified in the article, namely: (1) globalization, (2) computer revolution and ICT-technologies, and (3) China’s opening to the world. The tendencies of the international trade in the past three decades are analyzed. The main trends of world economy and trade are discussed. There is particular emphasis on the world trade reduction causes in 2015 and 2016. Special attention is paid to the changes in the US and China bilateral trade. GDP growth slowed down in both the U.S. and China during three years of their trade war. Nevertheless, despite this relative decline the United States and China remain the world’s largest importers and exporters of goods and services and the main trading partners. USA accounts for 8.8 percent of global goods exports in 2018 (second place after China with 13.1 percent) and 13.5 percent of global imports (first place; China is 11.0 percent). The author’s conclusion is as follow: the proportion between the world trade and global GDP that has been established by now should be considered as normal and optimal in terms of the global reproduction system’s functioning.

Tunisia Monetary Policy Since the Arab Spring: The Fall of the Exchange Rate Anchor and Rise of Inflation Targeting

In this paper, we argue that inflation targeting could be the future of Tunisia's monetary policy. Monetary targeting has proven to be ineffective due to the composition of reserve money, structural liquidity deficit, and higher instability of the money multiplier after 2010. Exchange rate targeting is no longer feasible due to the level of international reserves, current account deficit, and inflation differentials with main trading partners. The Central Bank of Tunisia has already made important progress toward inflation targeting. The paper evidences the existence of increasingly effective interest rate transmission as well as the changing exchange rate passthrough to inflation with the gradual move toward further exchange rate flexibility.

Dynamics and determinants of trade exchange between the European Union and India

Purpose – This article attempts to identify and assess trade exchange between the European Union and India, including an indication of the main determinants of the process. Research method – Descriptive analysis based on numerical data from various statistical sources together with a review of specialist literature. Results – Trade exchange between the EU and India is particularly important for India. Exports to the EU account for around 17-20% of Indian exports in total. On the other hand, the EU’s share in Indian imports amounts to 10-12% of all imported goods. Trade with India looks different from the EU side. India’s share in both exports and imports presents a margin for EU trade in goods of 2-3%. The share of services in the trade between the EU and India is high. It accounts for 25-30% of mutual turnover. These are usually modern services based on the offshoring principles, such as IT, business, transport, consulting, science, and tourism. Among the European Union Member States, India’s main trading partners in goods are Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Italy. These six countries account for ca. 85% of the EU-India trade exchange. In 2007, negotiations started to create an EU-India Free Trade Area. Due to the large differences in the positions of both parties, these discussions were not finalised and were subsequently suspended in 2013. However, after the reactivation of talks in 2016, there is still a possibility for the creation of an EU-India Free Trade Area of 1.8 billion people. Originality /value / implications /recommendations – At the beginning of the 21 st century, in terms of GDP (according to PPP), the European Union (understood as one economic entity) became the second largest economic power globally (after China), while India advanced to fourth position (after China, the EU and the USA). An analysis of trade exchange between these two economic powers allows for a clearer understanding of the modern global economy, as well as the processes and mechanisms of its functioning.

Экономика КНР в условиях торговой войны

The article discusses internal and external factors affecting the growth and structure of the PRC economy at the present stage. Currently, China has found itself in a complicated position requiring a parallel solution of two major tasks: the steady transformation of its development model in order to create a modern economy based on advanced technologies and innovations, as well as the restructuring of foreign economic relations and regrouping among the main trading partners in connection with the ongoing US-China trade conflict. The PRC leadership has taken a number of measures to maintain stable economic growth, including monetary easing, reduction of tax burden on the economy, promotion of public-private partnership, active attraction of foreign investors and creation of free trade zones. The PRC Law on Foreign Investments was adopted in March 2019 and entered into force starting from 2020. In accordance with the new law, foreign enterprises obtain national status at all stages of the investment process. The law significantly enhances the legal protection of foreign entrepreneurs. However, despite all efforts of the government main socio-economic indicators demonstrate the continuation of the downward trend prevailing in the PRC in previous years. At the same time, certain positive structural changes that have occurred in the economy have to some extent mitigated the effects of the slowdown in China’s economic growth. Both China and the United States incur losses caused by mutual application of trade sanctions. The ongoing Sino-US negotiations are aimed at finding a compromise solution acceptable for both sides. As a result, in January 2020, after 12 rounds of negotiations, the Chinese-American economic agreement was signed, representing the first phase of the trade deal between the two countries. However the parties face a difficult and, most likely, lingering prospect of resolving their trade and economic contradictions within the second phase of the negotiation process.

Export potential development of wild plants

The article presents the prospects for the wild plants export development in Krasnoyarsk Krai. The analysis of the wild plants export from the region over the past five years is carried out. The commodity structure of the wild plants export was revealed and the main foreign trading partners were identified. The article considers factors and prospects for the development of wild plants harvesting and sending them for export on the example of Krasnoyarsk Krai.

Cross-border cooperation between Russia and Mongolia (on the example of the Republic of Buryatia)

В статье рассматриваются основные направления, тенденции и перспективы приграничного и регионального сотрудничества Монголии и России (на примере Республики Бурятия). Дан исторический экскурс приграничного со-трудничества, который позволил реконструировать давние торгово-экономические и добрососедские связи между Россией и Монголией. На основе статистических данных по состоянию на 2018–2019 гг. проведён анализ динамики двухстороннего торгового оборота, инвестиционного сотрудничества и современного состояния торгово-экономического сотрудничества Республики Бурятия и Монголии. Установлено, что в рамках реализации трёхстороннего экономического коридора «Россия – Монголия – Китай» приграничное сотрудничество между Монголией и Республикой Бурятия имеет высокий потенциал экономического и инвестиционного развития. Особое внимание уделяется существующим препятствиям в приграничном российско-монгольском сотрудничестве и анализируются пути их преодоления. Сделан вывод, что Республика Бурятия среди приграничных регионов РФ является основным торгово-экономическим партнёром Монголии, развивает культурные, образовательные и гуманитарные связи. The article discusses the main directions, trends and prospects of cross-border and regional cooperation between Mongolia and Russia (on the example of the Republic of Buryatia). A historical excursion of cross-border cooperation was given, which made it possible to reconstruct the long-standing trade, economic and good-neighborly ties between Russia and Mongolia. Based on statistical data, an analysis of the dynamics of bilateral trade, investment cooperation and the current state of trade and economic cooperation of the Republic of Buryatia and Mongolia was carried out. It has been established that in the context of implementing the trilateral economic corridor of «Russia-Mongolia-China», cross-border cooperation between Mongolia and the Republic of Buryatia has a high potential for economic development. Attention has been paid to the existing obstacles in the cross-border Russian-Mongolian cooperation and the ways of overcoming them. It is concluded that the Republic of Buryatia among the border regions is the main trade and economic partner of Mongolia, and develops cultural, educational and humanitarian ties.

Торговельне співробітництво України та Великої Британії: сучасний стан і перспективи

The article is aimed at determining the current state and prospects for the development of trade cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain. For Ukraine, cooperation with the the United Kingdom as one of the world’s trade leaders can be a promising direction. The dynamics of foreign trade in goods and services of Ukraine with Great Britain are provided. The increase in Ukrainian exports of goods may continue after the Great Britain leaves the EU, as, unlike other EU countries, Great Britain pursues a less protectionist policy on agricultural products. The commodity structure of exports and imports, as well as changes in the structure of foreign trade in the services of Ukraine and Great Britain over the past 5 years are analyzed. The main commodities exported by Ukraine are ferrous metals, grain crops, fats and oils of both animal and vegetable origin. The structure of British imports of goods is dominated by goods with high added value. Great Britain is one of Ukraine’s main foreign trade partners in the trade in services. A positive process for Ukraine is the increase in the share of services exports in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services. It is determined that trade cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain during the researched period is characterized, in general, by positive dynamics. Positive changes include a gradual reduction in the negative balance of Ukrainian trade with great Britain due to faster growth of Ukrainian exports. At the same time, the unresolved problem remains low-diversified exports of Ukraine with low added value. Prospects for further trade cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain in the context of signing the Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland are examined.

СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО РОССИИ С КИТАЕМ

China is Russia’s main trade and economic partner in East Asia; relations between the countries are developing in the format of a comprehensive strategic partnership. China became the second state after the United States in its economic power. China achieved its success by applying a new economic model. Russia and China are adjusting their approaches to responding to global changes and challenges of the 21st century. Tasks. Explore the main directions, structure and scope of trade, economic and investment cooperation between Russia and China. Methodology. The scientific methods of comparing the dynamics, structure and volumes of the economies of the world are used. Results. Successful strategic cooperation between Russia and China in the regional and global dimensions has been proved in the conditions of complete mutual understanding and trust of the leaders of Russia and China. There is no disagreement on building positions on the United States and a hostile American policy towards Russia and China. Conclusions. The high level of political and economic relations between Russia and China is a guarantee of peace in the Asian region.

АНАЛИЗ ИМПОРТА И ЭКСПОРТА АЛЖИРА

The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of the export-import relations of Algeria. The characteristics of the Algerian economy in the overwhelming majority of sources are consistently associated with the development of the country's energy sector, as well as the relatively low level of development of the socio-economic sphere. In the economy of Algeria, there are clearly marked trends of urbanization, an increase in the quality of life. An important role in this is played by the country's participation in the world export of hydrocarbons. At the turn of the 2000s, like a number of other North African countries, Algeria showed a clear readiness to integrate into the European economy, participate in large infrastructure projects (including the ambitious energy project DESERTEC, in which many EU companies were involved), there was an increase in business activity inside countries and the inflow of foreign investment, increased activity in the country of TNCs. All this taken together allowed researchers to predict in the 21st century. possible "African renaissance". However, the global crisis of 2008 and the subsequent crisis of world energy prices in 2014, the threat of the development in Algeria of a “color revolution” based on the model of neighboring countries of the region forced researchers to reconsider the forecasts for the development of the Algerian economy, revealed structural problems of the Algerian economy, offset by growth energy export revenues. In the context of a significant drop in world prices for energy resources and a slowdown in the growth rates of European economies, the influence of these factors on the state of export-import relations of Algeria, the state's trade balance, and the structure of foreign trade is of interest. The author comes to the conclusion that for Algeria the excessively high dependence of exports on hydrocarbon supplies was the reason for the formation in 2015 of a negative balance of the country's foreign trade for the first time since the early 2000s. The transition of the balance of foreign trade of Algeria to negative states is also influenced by the buildup of the negative balance of foreign trade with the PRC, which over the previous decade became the main trading partner of Algeria.

География экономической интеграции Павлодарской области с приграничными регионами России

This article discusses the integration relationship of economies, industrial enterprises of Pavlodar region and border regions of the Russian Federation. By virtue of the main trading partner of our country. The neighboring position of Russia, the formation of industrial enterprises contribute to the development and expansion of the influence of economic integration. The dominant foreign trade relations of Pavlodar region are established with this state. Of course, the neighboring position of Kazakhstan and Russia, the formation of numerous joint ventures has a positive impact on the expansion of the geography of economic integration and its impact on the development of regions.

АМЕРИКАНОЦЕНТРИЗМ И МНОГОПОЛЯРНОСТЬ В ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ (ТОРГОВО-ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ И ФИНАНСОВЫЙ АСПЕКТЫ)

More global multipolarity has not diminished up to now the US influence in the world economy. On the contrary American possibilities for maneuvering have increased. For example this can be observed in the case of the trade negotiations and exterritorial sanctions policy. Turbulences in international trade during last years are partially the result of objective factors such as increasing global competition, the appearance of new important actors at world markets, malfunctions of multilateral trade system. But the situation was seriously aggravated by the US disturbing unilateral actions in economic relations with main trade partners including Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. The reasons for these actions were both economic and geopolitical. Especially it is seen in the case of US-China trade dispute in which the main goal for the US seems to be hampering China’s economic development. The US foreign economic policy may have long-term negative effects in particular increasing probability of substitution the WTO rules by bilateral and regional agreements. This would be equal to a sort of the global market fragmentation. Strengthening global multilateral trade system fully responds to the interests of Russia. As well as more commercial motivation of Russia’s economic relations with all countries including Eurasian Economic Union. There is no sense in confronting the US on economic issues at the expense of losses for Russian companies and for the economy on the whole. Even without our interference Americanocentrism in the global economy will inevitably be decreasing.

Economic Growth Effects of Economic Integration: An Economic Analysis on Turkish Economy in the Context of the European Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization

For many years the EU countries in Turkey's foreign trade is seen as the main trading partners. However, due to particularly in energy and raw material trade, shares of countries that are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), especially the Russian Federation and China. also increased in the foreign trade of Turkey. The main purpose of the study is to discuss the comparative view of EU and SCO in the foreign trade of Turkey which goals to be an economic power in its region and reveal the effectiveness of trade with these two trading blocks for Turkey’s economic growth. In the study, data from 6 EU countries and 6 SCO member countries with the highest transaction volume between the years of 2000-2017 were used. Place of 12 countries that considired approximately 42% in the foreign trade of Turkey. The results of the analysis of both trade blocs have been considered to be very important for Turkey's economy. Trading ( import-export) both with EU and SCO countries influence Turkey’s economic growth and variables in both the short and long term shows the presence of a meaningful relationship. Economic growth and foreign trade data show that there is a bi-directional causality between the two trading blocks.

POLISH AGRI-FOOD TRADE WITH NON-EU COUNTRIES – A GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS

The main aim of the article was to indicate the influence of selected determinants of Poland’s agri-food export to countries outside the European Union. Although European Union countries have been the Poland’s main trading partners for years, the share of third countries in total Polish trade has gradually been increasing. In the case of Polish agri-food trade, a different tendency is observed, as the importance of non-EU countries is decreasing. In the analysis, covering the years 2000-2016, the gravity model was used. The dependent variable was Poland’s agri-food export to third countries, while independent variables included GDP, the geographical distance between partners, differences of GDP per capita of exporter and importer, agricultural value added, the preferential trade agreement and variable describing whether a given country was a post-socialist country. Research confirmed that the masses of economies expressed in GDP attract trade between countries, while the distance between partners limits it. A positive impact on Polish agri-food exports was observed for agricultural value added and more liberal trade regulations between partners, which were a result of preferential trade agreements between the European Union and selected third countries. On the other hand, historical conditions related to the fact that the country was in the group of socialist countries with economies undergoing a transformation process since the 1990s have limited Polish agri-food exports.

Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database

This guidance note outlines the construction and contents of RPROD. This new database developed by CEPII complements the EQCHANGE database, by providing additional measures of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. RPROD delivers the following indicators computed for each country included in the database, and relative to its main trading partners: (i) GDP per capita, (ii) labor productivity, (iii) consumer-price-to-producer-price ratio, (iv) three-sectors’ value-added deflator, and (v) six-sectors' value-added deflator. These different measures are publicly available (http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=34), with the aim to contribute to the investigation of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, and to the comparison of estimated equilibrium real exchange rates and currency misalignments across alternative proxies of this effect.

Analysis of Competitiveness and Factors Affecting Indonesia's Selected Commodity Exports to Developing Eight Countries (D-8)

Indonesia's exports to major trading partners show a declining trend in recent years. So that market diversification is important so that exports do not fully depend on the main trading partners. Looking at the development of Indonesia's exports to the Developing Eight Countries (D-8), this region can become a potential market to increase exports. This study aimed to analyze the competitiveness of commodities, and the factors that affect Indonesia's commodity exports to (D-8). The analysis period from 2009 to 2018 uses Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Intra Industry Trade (IIT), Export Dynamic Product (EPD), and Gravity Model using panel data regression. Based on the results of RCA and EPD analysis, Indonesian commodities are able to compete and occupy a variety of positions, namely the Rising Star, Falling Star, Lost Oportunity, and Retreat positions. The IIT results show that most of Indonesia's trade relations with D-8 member countries are one-way (No Integration). Factors that influence exports are, GDP, real exchange rates, commodity prices, economic distances with different results for each commodity.

Pemanfaatan Surat Keterangan Asal Indonesia Dalam Peningkatan Investasi Berorientasi Ekspor Australia Ke Indonesia

Indonesia has signed a trade agreement with Australia and hoped that this agreement can benefit both parties to face global free trade. Indonesia is not Australia's main trading partner and Indonesia's exports to Australia tend to decline but Indonesia can take advantage of the Australian export market which has trade agreements with Indonesia to indirectly increase Indonesian exports by utilizing Indonesia’s Certificate of Origin (CoO) as a partner for Australian export product producers by using Third Country Invoicing and back-to-back preferential CoO

Foreign Trade Cooperation Technologies: Prospects and Opportunities (With China and Russia as Examples)

The article has analyzed the benefits and barriers of creating the Sino-Russian free trade based on the legal documents governing the formation of the Silk Road taking into account features of the economies’ development at the current stage. The main trading partners of the Russian Federation among the far-abroad countries have been identified. The structure of exports-imports of the Russian Federation with the foreign trade partners among the APEC countries has been analyzed, including the structure of the trade between China and Russia, and the volume of bilateral trade between countries. The article has analyzed the state of trade cooperation between Russia and China by industries, and also assessed the competitiveness of the trading environment of the Silk Road countries. The authors have compared the parametric characteristics of Russia and China, and also forecasted the changes in the commodity structure of imports and exports for the Russian-Chinese foreign trade relations.

Factors influencing Vietnam’s handicraft export with the gravity model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that affect handicraft export from Vietnam to trading partners in the period 2007–2017, and how those factors influence the export of handicraft products of Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The research uses the approach of gravity model based on panel data to evaluate the export of Vietnamese handicraft to 50 main trading partners, covering the period from 2007 to 2017. Findings The estimated results reveal that Vietnam’s GDP, importer’s GDP, trading partner’s population, Vietnam’s inflation, the economic distance between Vietnam and importer, the openness of Vietnam, importing country’s common language and the issue that both Vietnam and importer are member of APEC are the main factors affecting Vietnamese handicraft export. Research limitations/implications This study also has some limitations. It is limited in the data, as some other areas in the world have not been observed and included in the research. In the future, a study with large-scale data of space and time should be conducted, which will certainly give a universal result and fewer errors. However, this paper, in our opinion, provides a significant result and may help the government and policy makers to undertake appropriate measures to improve and promote the export of Vietnamese handicrafts to the world markets. Practical implications The research describes the current situation, and it studies factors influencing Vietnam’s handicraft export using the qualitative analysis. The result should be useful for the policy maker and enterprises to promote export activities of Vietnamese handicrafts to international markets. Social implications Handicraft export of Vietnam plays an important part in retaining the culture value and social development as well as encouraging sustainable development for the rural poor within the country. Originality/value The past research related to Vietnamese handicraft export almost analyzed the situation to promote export handicrafts. This research is based on the study of factors affecting trade and the gravity model to elaborate and supplement the factors that affect the export of handicraft in accordance with the actual conditions of Vietnam.

Modern State of the Far East Federal District Foreign Trade with the Peoples Republic of China

The article considers modern specifics of development of foreign trade cooperation of the Far Eastern Federal District with the People’s Republic of China that is traditionally the main foreign trade partner of the region. The article provides statistical data on trade dynamics and the main tendencies for change of the goods structure of export-import operations between the Far Eastern Federal District with the People’s Republic of China. A perspective sector of developing trade and economic cooperation between the Far Eastern Federal District with the People’s Republic of China is increasing the intensity of processing of raw materials produced in the Irkutsk Region and first of all increasing the export of oil, gas and timber products, as well as maintaining a high share of engineering products in exports.

The Trade Of Indonesian Spice Comodities In International Market

This research is aimed to (1) observe the trade patterns and domination export in the spice commodities between Indonesia in international market and the countries as its main trade partners, and (2) observe the performance of the export and import in industry of Indonesia spices with its trade partner countries. Grubel-Lloyd Index (GLI) were used to detect whether the trade patterns in spice industry is as intra-industry or as inter-industry as well as to figure out the domination of the spice commodity export of Indonesia to its trade partner countries. The performance of the export and import in spice industry could be analyzed using the share of export and import between Indonesia and its trade partner countries. This research used the secondary data obtained from UNComtrade in a 15-year period (2002-2016) by concerning with a number of the main trade partner countries. The results of the research showed that the trade of Indonesian spice commodities in international market and among its main trade partners is categorized as a partial industry. Indonesia overall dominates the spice trade with its main trading partners; thus, the trade balance of Indonesian spice commodities is surplus. It is only with China and India in which the trade pattern is categorized as the intra-industry. Government needs to do some various efforts to encourage the increase of exports of Indonesian spices in the international market by developing market intelligence, enhancing the role of attachés in the spice trade diplomacy in the partner countries and potential countries.