Main Scenarios Research Articles

Open-source methods for estimating health risks of fine particulate matter from coal-fired power plants: A demonstration from Karachi, Pakistan

Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) effectiveness and accessibility by the public is determined by local environmental enforcement and regulation. Massive energy infrastructure projects like China's Belt and Road initiative (BRI) could accentuate social and economic costs, as regulation is deferred to host countries with varying levels of domestic enforcement. To fill major gaps in the public evaluation of EIA practices and results, our objective here is to present an open-source approach for evaluating localized air pollution health impacts for BRI-financed coal-fired power plants. This analysis focuses on one specific problem, additional attributable mortality from stroke, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for adults ages 25–84 from fine particulate matter (PM2.5), known to be major risk factor for premature deaths globally. As a concrete example, we examine the case of the Port Qasim power plant located near Karachi, Sindh Province, Pakistan. We present results for two main scenarios: a base case, assuming fully operational pollution control technologies, in particular electrostatic precipitators (ESP); and an alternative case without ESPs. All material and methods for replicating this analysis for the case study and for other projects are available in our institutional open repository. Our approach can be applied immediately to virtually any source location in the world, due to the public and global availability of input data. SynopsisWe present an open-source approach for evaluating localized health impacts due to fine particulate matter emitted from coal-fired power plants.

The Use of Penile Traction Devices for Peyronie's Disease: Position Statements from the European Society for Sexual Medicine.

IntroductionPenile traction therapy (PTT) aims to non-surgically reduce curvature, enhance girth, and recover lost length. Available clinical practice guidelines however lack clear recommendations regarding their use.AimTo present a comprehensive review and recommendation regarding the available evidence to the use of PTT in Peyronie's disease (PD).MethodsA systematic literature search was performed on Pubmed and Medline for relevant studies from all times until 2019. Studies of PTT (monotherapy and in combination) in patients with PD with any documented degree of curvature and in either the acute or chronic phase of the disease were included. Full texts not published in English language were excluded.Main outcomes measuresSeveral scenarios, including preclinical data have been investigated. For each topic covered evidence was analyzed and expert opinion was stated.ResultsThe paucity of high-level studies precluded any strong recommendations, however, specific statements on this topic, summarizing the ESSM position, were provided. The available data about the use of PTT in PD are still poor, and the impact of this therapy for the treatment of PD has not been clearly stablished. Available data in the clinical setting are still poor, and the impact of these devices on PD evolution has not been clearly established.ConclusionPTT seems to be a valid treatment option for PD, although there is not enough evidence to give any definitive recommendation in any clinical scenario. García-Gómez B, Aversa A, Alonso-Isa M et al. The Use of Penile Traction Devices for Peyronie's Disease: Position Statements from the European Society for Sexual Medicine. Sex Med 2021;9:100387.

Modeling the epidemic process of HIV infection in populations with different natural population growth

Aim: to assess the incidence, prevalence of HIV infection and population dynamics in populations with negative, zero and positive natural increase.Materials and Methods: Computer probabilistic modeling by the Monte Carlo method of the epidemic process of HIV infection in populations with different natural population growths was carried out. The parameters that are minimally necessary for such a description are used – population, birth rate, mortality, HIV prevalence, probability of HIV transmission.Results and discussion: When modeling the epidemic process, two main scenarios of the spread of HIV infection in a population without diagnostic, therapeutic and preventive effects were established. With a negative or zero population growth and a random distribution of healthy and infected individuals in the simulated space, the population density gradually decreases. At some point, the probability of contact of the infected and healthy person becomes less than the probability of an infected person to live up to this event. Under such conditions, the complete elimination of the virus from the population is theoretically possible. With a positive natural increase, it is possible to form a stable state in which the periods of increase in population size, incidence and prevalence of HIV infection change in a cyclical decline. HIV prevalence in countries such as Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho has been at the level of 25–30% for many years. In this case, the population steadily grows. Based on the conducted simulation studies, it can be assumed that in these territories an evolutionarily stable balance was formed between the share of healthy and HIV-infected people in which the prevalence does not occur above 30%.Conclusions. The development of the epidemic process of HIV infection is determined by the dynamics of natural population growth. With a negative or zero natural growth and a random distribution of individuals in the simulated space, a complete elimination of the virus from the population is theoretically possible. With a positive natural increase, it is possible to form an evolutionarily stable cyclic balance between the proportion of healthy and HIV-infected people.

Automatic Prediction of Recurrence of Major Cardiovascular Events: A Text Mining Study Using Chest X-Ray Reports.

Methods We used EHR data of patients included in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) study. We propose a deep learning-based multimodal architecture for our text mining pipeline that integrates neural text representation with preprocessed clinical predictors for the prediction of recurrence of major cardiovascular events in cardiovascular patients. Text preprocessing, including cleaning and stemming, was first applied to filter out the unwanted texts from X-ray radiology reports. Thereafter, text representation methods were used to numerically represent unstructured radiology reports with vectors. Subsequently, these text representation methods were added to prediction models to assess their clinical relevance. In this step, we applied logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron neural network, convolutional neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM deep neural network (BiLSTM). Results We performed various experiments to evaluate the added value of the text in the prediction of major cardiovascular events. The two main scenarios were the integration of radiology reports (1) with classical clinical predictors and (2) with only age and sex in the case of unavailable clinical predictors. In total, data of 5603 patients were used with 5-fold cross-validation to train the models. In the first scenario, the multimodal BiLSTM (MI-BiLSTM) model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 84.7%, misclassification rate of 14.3%, and F1 score of 83.8%. In this scenario, the SVM model, trained on clinical variables and bag-of-words representation, achieved the lowest misclassification rate of 12.2%. In the case of unavailable clinical predictors, the MI-BiLSTM model trained on radiology reports and demographic (age and sex) variables reached an AUC, F1 score, and misclassification rate of 74.5%, 70.8%, and 20.4%, respectively. Conclusions Using the case study of routine care chest X-ray radiology reports, we demonstrated the clinical relevance of integrating text features and classical predictors in our text mining pipeline for cardiovascular risk prediction. The MI-BiLSTM model with word embedding representation appeared to have a desirable performance when trained on text data integrated with the clinical variables from the SMART study. Our results mined from chest X-ray reports showed that models using text data in addition to laboratory values outperform those using only known clinical predictors.

The trade and welfare impacts of the U.S. retaliatory tariff on EU olive oil

AbstractWe investigate the welfare and trade impacts of U.S. retaliatory tariffs from the Airbus WTO dispute on EU olive oil, using a calibrated multi‐market partial‐equilibrium displacement model. The model accounts for four differentiated types of retail olive oil in the U.S. market. U.S. retailer‐blenders source olive oil in eight foreign markets and domestically and for two qualities of oil (virgin, other), and in two shipping container types (non‐bulk, bulk). We consider two main scenarios: A 100% tariff on all EU olive oils as initially announced by the USTR, and the actual and final 25% tariff on non‐bulk Spanish olive oil. The first scenario leads to significant loss of welfare for U.S. consumers of $924 million, much reduced EU olive oil exports to the United States ($360 million), and increased imports from non‐EU sources ($90 million). The second scenario has much more muted effects, with mitigated welfare losses for U.S. consumers ($55 million), strong decreases of Spanish olive oil exports shipped in smaller containers, much larger exports of bulk Spanish olive oil and other olive oils. Aggregate EU exports to the United States are slightly lower given the substantial trade diversion induced by the targeted tariff. We discuss the political economy of the contrasting initial announcement and limited implemented retaliation.

Research on Layered Networking Protocol of Internet of Things for Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment

The important component of transmission and transformation equipment in the power grid is whether the power grid can maintain a safe operation state depends on the safety and reliability of the transmission and transformation equipment itself. The application of Internet of things technology plays an important role in the management of transmission and transformation equipment. Therefore, in order to improve the high efficiency of transmission and transformation equipment, it is necessary to introduce and apply Internet of things technology. In order to improve the high efficiency of transmission and transformation equipment, it is necessary to introduce and apply Internet of things technology in power transmission and transformation equipment In the management of power transmission and transformation equipment, the application of Internet of things technology can promote the effective improvement of the accuracy of the monitoring results of equipment operation status to a certain extent, thus improving the operation quality of the whole power grid and promoting the construction of intelligent management system of power grid units. This paper first briefly expounds the technical meaning of Internet of things, and then analyzes the main application scenarios of layered network routing protocol in the management of transmission and transformation equipment, which provides an effective theoretical reference for the safe operation and high-quality operation of power grid.

Top-level Design and Application of Transportation and Tourism Big Data System for High-altitude Regions

In the high-altitude regions of Northwest China, where the levels of transportation infrastructure and public travel information services are relatively weak, problems like inadequate consistency, accuracy and timeliness of information services, insufficiently rich content, poorly targeted services, unsatisfactory public experience and large high-altitude risks remain in contrast to tourists’ growing travel demands for safe, convenient, efficient and comfortable transportation. This study discusses the key points in designing the top-level technical framework and application of transportation and tourism big data system in China’s typical high-altitude Qinghai regions. Particular focuses are on the convergence, sharing, integration and opening of transportation and tourism data under self-driving tour-based high-altitude conditions, as well as the comprehensive utilization of technical ideas and application models. Meanwhile, the main application scenarios of the system are explored for all levels of governmental sectors, the public and businesses. As the research show, the establishment of the system has positive implications for enhancing the coordination and linkage efficiencies between high-altitude scenic spots and surrounding road networks, achieving the “integrated” transportation-tourism information services characteristic of high-altitude regions, and improving the comprehensive analytical and decision-making capacity for transportation and tourism in these regions. The application system can improve the diversified service experience of public travel dominated by self-driving tours to a remarkable extent.

MultiCategory

The variety of data is one of the important issues in the era of Big Data. The data are naturally organized in different formats and models, including structured data, semi-structured data, and unstructured data. Prior research has envisioned an approach to abstract multi-model data with a schema category and an instance category by using category theory. In this paper, we demonstrate a system, called MultiCategory, which processes multi-model queries based on category theory and functional programming. This demo is centered around four main scenarios to show a tangible system. First, we show how to build a schema category and an instance category by loading different models of data, including relational, XML, key-value, and graph data. Second, we show a few examples of query processing by using the functional programming language Haskell. Third, we demo the flexible outputs with different models of data for the same input query. Fourth, to better understand the category theoretical structure behind the queries, we offer a variety of graphical hooks to explore and visualize queries as graphs with respect to the schema category, as well as the query processing procedure with Haskell.

The role of bike sharing stations in the perception of public spaces: A stated preferences analysis

The pervasiveness of bike sharing schemes around the world has the potential to bring important benefits in terms of public health and reduction of congestion and emissions. However, there can be negative externalities associated to these systems, especially in terms of misuse and degradation of public spaces. This paper explores how the presence of different shared bicycle systems and their stations affect peoplés perceptions of public spaces and neighbourhoods. For this, a stated preferences experiment was created and applied in Santiago de Chile, depicting two main scenarios (downtown and residential) with various configurations of public bicycle stations (dock-based and dockless), along other cycling facilities on a street. Survey results were used to estimate a choice model, measuring the impact of the scenario attributes on the probability of being chosen as a preferred public space. Attitudes about bikesharing, the environment and mobility in general were also measured and used to estimate latent variables and their role in public space perception. Results show bike sharing stations are overall positively perceived in terms of their capacity to improve a neighbourhood’s image, safety and accessibility, although this is more likely in compact urban contexts and for users of bikesharing. Disorganized (dockless) bicycles left on sidewalks are perceived negatively, although not enough to make individuals prefer a situation without public bicycles. The previous findings indicate that bike sharing schemes could have positive effects on the image of neighbourhoods by making them look more attractive and modern.

Стратегические коммуникации: коориентационный подход в российских и американских вузах

This study focuses on two countries that often dominate international public diplomacy, and examines how Russian and American youth view the current relationship between Russia and the United States. The article promotes research on the theory of co-orientation and proves that coordination can be one of the theoretical foundations in the field of strategic communication. The study first identifies the main issues affecting the relations between the two countries. Then, using the survey methodology, data on these questions is collected from respondents from the United States and Russia. Four main scenarios of co-orientation are considered : monolithic consensus, pluralistic disregard, false consensus, and disagreement. The results of the study show that the type of coordination scenario that best characterizes the relationship between the United States and Russia is disagreement. The results also highlight the status of strategic communication as an interdisciplinary science with the psychological roots of coorientation theory.

Study on Boil-off Gas (BOG) Minimization and Recovery Strategies from Actual Baseload LNG Export Terminal: Towards Sustainable LNG Chains

Boil-off Gas (BOG) generated at the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal causes negative economic and environmental impacts. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop and evaluate various handling schemes to minimize and/or recover the generated BOG from an actual baseload LNG export terminal with a capacity of 554 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) of natural gas feed. The following three main scenarios were assessed: JBOG re-liquefaction, LNG sub-cooling, and lean fuel gas (LFG) reflux. For the LNG subcooling, two sub-cases were considered; standalone subcooling before LNG storage and subcooling in the prevailing liquefaction cycle. Steady-state models for these scenarios were simulated using Aspen Plus® based on a shortcut approach to quickly evaluate the proposed scenarios and determine the promising options that should be considered for further rigorous analysis. Results indicated that the flow of attainable excess LNG is 0.07, 0.03, and 0.022 million metric tons per annum (MTA) for the standalone LNG sub-cooling, LNG sub-cooling in the main cryogenic heat exchanger (MCHE), and both LFG-refluxing and jetty boil-off gas (JBOG) liquefaction, respectively. This in turn results in a profit of 24.58, 12.24, 8.14, and 7.63 million $/year for the LNG price of 7$ per Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) of LNG.

Electrical structure of the thundercloud and operation of the electron accelerator inside it

The most powerful particle accelerators operating in thunderclouds send in direction of the earth's millions and millions of electrons, gamma rays, and rarely neutrons. The emerging electrical structures in the atmosphere which make it possible to accelerate seed electrons from an ambient population of cosmic rays up to ≈70 MeV are still an area of intensive research. We discuss the main scenarios of the thundercloud charge structure supporting the emergence of an electric field strong enough to help electrons run away and create electron avalanches (RREA). After coming out of the accelerating electric field in the thundercloud, the RRE avalanche significantly attenuates and reaching the earth's surface is measured by the particle detectors and spectrometers as thunderstorm ground enhancement (TGE). Energy spectra of the measured fluxes of electrons and gamma rays can be used to reveal the charge structures giving rise to RREA. We perform simulation of the RREA development in the thundercloud with CORSIKA code and compare energy spectra of RREA corresponding to different configurations of the intracloud electric field with energy spectra of TGE measured in summer 2020. We invoke also additional evidence, namely the hydrometeor density profiles obtained with the weather research and forecast model (WRF) to confirm disclosed charge structures.

Geodesic Structure of the Accelerated Stephani Universe

For the spherically symmetric Stephani cosmological model with an accelerated expansion, we investigate the main scenarios of the test particle and photon motion. We show that a comoving observer sees an appropriate picture. In the case of purely radial motion, the radial velocity decreases slightly with time due to the universe expansion. Both particles and photons spiral out of the center when the radial coordinate is constant. In the case of the motion with arbitrary initial velocity, the observable radial distance to the test particle can increase under negative observable radial velocity.

Measurement of TGE particle energy spectra: An insight in the cloud charge structure

In this letter, we present for the first time the method to get insight into the charge structure of the thundercloud using simultaneously measured electron and gamma-ray energy spectra of the thunderstorm ground enhancement (TGE). We discuss and compare two main scenarios that can support the initiation of the relativistic runaway electron avalanches (RREA) in the thundercloud. One of the scenarios includes the emergence of the lower positive charged layer (LPCR). The LPCR is a short-living charge structure sitting on hydrometeors, which exhibit accidental charge reversals depending on temperature changes. LPCR can sustain a downwards directed near-surface electric field for several minutes, before falling down with precipitation. Recently, we launched on Aragats a large spectrometer, which is capable to measure energy spectra of electrons and gamma-rays in the energy range from 4 to 100 MeV. Comparison of energy spectra of electrons and gamma-rays makes it possible to scrutinize the LPCR emergence and estimate the height where the strong electric field that originates the RREA terminates.

5G Technology and Its Application in the Seismograph Intelligence

In order to meet the national intelligent development needs of coal mines, construct smart mines, improve their safety production levels and finally realize the vision of flexible manpower line and unmanned development, the application of 5G communication technology in intelligent seismographs for underground coal mines was discussed in this study based on the development history and advantages of 5G technology. Next, the application of 5G technology in the intelligent development of coal mines and the main application scenarios were explored by combining its three major unique advantages: high speed, low time delay and wide connection. The emphasis was laid on studying the seismograph intelligence based on 5G module, and then the uplink and downlink rates of three major operators under the same environmental conditions as well as uplink and downlink rates of the same operator at different positions under the 5G environment were tested. After being connected to 5G module, the seismographs sent data to the server side with fixed IP address, it was verified through the test that the normal communication was enabled under both TCP and UDP forms, and on this basis, the functions of seismograph, namely data passthrough to server and wireless real-time data transmission, were realized.

Анализ и оценка киберугроз национальной финансовой системе России в цифровой экономике

The relevance of the topic of this scientific article lies in the need for a theoretical and practical study of the problem of escalating numbers and quality of cyber threats and attacks committed against institutions of the Russian financial system, implying their safe and sustainable development being ensured in Industry 4.0. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive analysis of cyberthreats facing the national financial system of the Russian Federation in the context of economy digitalization. The subject of scientific research is the processes of ensuring national security of the Russian Federation’s financial system in the digital economy. In the process of research, the authors relied on general scientific methods (observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, as well as logical reasoning), specific scientific methods (static analysis, expert assessments, and graphical method), and the foresight method. The validity and reliability of the results of scientific research are ensured by the correctness and rigor of the logic and research scheme construction. Scientific and practical research of Russian and foreign scientists in the field of cybersecurity, digital economy and public administration was used as a methodological and fundamental basis of the study. Various approaches to key categories—digital sovereignty and cyberwar—have been systematized, and it has been established that the most pressing financial challenges and threats to the digital economy of the Russian Federation are as follows: hacker attacks, financial sabotage in the financial market, design and launch of social engineering trojans, infrastructure attacks on IoT (Internet of Things) networks, and sale of hacker tools with open source. The authors have analyzed the number and quality of cyberattacks on domestic financial institutions in 2016–2020; summarized the losses caused by cyberattacks to financial institutions; and identified the main scenarios for the development of cyberthreats and cyberattacks for the national financial system. As the main conclusion, the authors determine that further elaboration of the issues of ensuring financial institution cybersecurity in the digital economy requires justification and implementation of specific programs and activities carried out both by commercial banks within the framework of individual strategies for ensuring digital security, and by authorities and management with positions of ensuring the digital sovereignty of the state.

TECHNOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE E-LEARNING SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT

Modern information technology can significantly increase the per sonalization of learning activities and provide continuous feedback between a teacher and a student, through the widespread implementation of distance learning. At the same time, in order to provide the required level of distance learning process, an impor tant task is to design new information systems that will allow teachers to use various forms of communication with students in learning activities.E-learning resources are investigated. The article describes and analyses the most popular web platforms for electronic education and determines Moodle system as the most functional one, but difficult for users who are unfamiliar with web technologies. Features of e-learning resources and the main requirements to their design and functionality are studied. The relevance and expediency of the use of information technologies in education are described in the paper and self-engineered information system of e-learning is suggested, its main functions and scenarios are determined and system on an abstract level is described. The main user characteristics are given and their connections with system usage cases are determined.

Off-momentum cleaning simulations and measurements at the Large Hadron Collider

The Large Hadron Collider is designed to collide proton beams with unprecedented energy in order to extend the frontiers of high-energy physics. Particles that have an energy different from the nominal one follow dispersive orbits and, if the energy offset is large enough, could be lost on the cold aperture and cause quenches of superconducting magnets. Therefore, particles with large energy offsets must be removed from the beam by the collimation system. Although the dynamics of such particles is well understood and the efficiency of the momentum cleaning is evaluated in measurements, in the past, there were not general simulations tools available for predicting the efficiency of the collimation system in scenarios where off-momentum particles are involved. In this paper we present a new set of tools to simulate off-momentum losses, the benchmarking of these tools with measurements and the evaluation of off-momentum losses in the future LHC upgrade, the HL-LHC. These new simulation tools are applied for simulating two of the main scenarios where off-momentum particles play an important role in the LHC: particles lost at the start of the energy ramp and simulations of the momentum cleaning at 6.5 TeV energy. In this study, the collimation process during dynamic changes in the machine is simulated, as opposed to previous studies in static conditions. This is the first time that this sort of comparison between different simulation methods and measurements is performed. The results are used to provide a better understanding the dynamics of such particles and, finally, these tools are used to estimate the influence of off-momentum losses in the future High-Luminosity LHC.

An interactive online IT tool to aim the environmental surveillance of veterinary antibiotics in agriculture and pasture lands

The undermining of the therapeutic effectiveness of antibiotics by their widespread use is causing the emergence of antimicrobial resistance, which is a major threat for both animal and human health. Since most veterinary antibiotics employed in livestock production are excreted essentially unaltered, they have been identified as major contributors of environmental contamination. However, the efforts of monitoring antimicrobial effects are focused on humans and livestock, neglecting the environment. The European Union institutions recognized this gap in the appreciation of the issue, and adopted an approach that includes to prioritize environmental tracking and to build the tools to make it economically accessible. This abstract has three main targets. Firstly, to fill the gap applying the IT methodological approach (the soil vulnerability map to antibiotic contamination) developed by De La Torre et al. (2012). Secondly, to identify the main livestock species and scenarios (agriculture and pasture) to be prioritized in surveillance efforts. Finally, to implement the code of agriculture practices and the stocking rates of grazing animals based on high vulnerability areas for antibiotic contamination. To facilitate the implementation of this risk evaluation procedure, we developed an interactive tool that allows to obtain downloadable maps of soil vulnerability to contamination for several land use (agriculture and pasture) and livestock (cattle, pig and chicken) scenarios for any veterinary antibiotics. Additionally, the tool allows to obtain a plot of the mean vulnerability of each considered administrative unit. We implemented the European Union countries as an example, but the tool could be applied to individual countries or even regional or sub-national scales.

Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment

OBJECTIVESCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea.METHODSA mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination.RESULTSThe results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.CONCLUSIONSWe expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.