Abstract
OBJECTIVESCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea.METHODSA mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination.RESULTSThe results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022.CONCLUSIONSWe expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous public health impact globally
Successful non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, delaying school opening, and contact tracing combined with self-quarantine, have effectively controlled the epidemic in Korea [3], which had a relatively small number of cases compared to other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries in 2020
11n this study, we analyzed 9 scenarios to predict the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea in 2021; Te first scenario represented an epidemic situation without a vaccination program; The other 8 scenarios indicated the epidemics with vaccination programs with different vaccination rates and compliance levels; Each scenario analysis generated the cumulative number of cases in 2021 for each age group and the number of days at various social distancing grades. 2Projected number of confirmed cases from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022
Summary
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous public health impact globally. Successful non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, delaying school opening, and contact tracing combined with self-quarantine, have effectively controlled the epidemic in Korea [3], which had a relatively small number of cases compared to other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries in 2020. The number of cases rose significantly starting in November 2020. This surge led to significant shortages in medical staff and hospital beds, affecting the treatment of COVID-19 patients. Of doses Effectiveness (first dose) Effectiveness (second dose) Interval between doses Moderna Introduction date Total no. Of doses Effectiveness (first dose) Effectiveness (second dose) Interval between doses Janssen Introduction date Total no. The average effective contact rate in each period categorized by the social distancing level was calculated based on calibrated estimates. Cross-vaccination was ruled out and the time gaps between the first and second doses were assumed to be 12
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