Main Uncertainty Factors Research Articles

Impact of Current Uncertainties in the 12C+12C Nuclear Reaction Rate on Intermediate-mass Stars and Massive White Dwarfs

Recent determinations of the total rate of the 12C+12C nuclear reaction show non-negligible differences with the reference reaction rate commonly used in previous stellar simulations. In addition, the current uncertainties in determining each exit channel constitute one of the main uncertainties in shaping the inner structure of super asymptotic giant branch stars that could have a measurable impact on the properties of pulsating ultramassive white dwarfs (WDs). We explore how new determinations of the nuclear reaction rate and its branching ratios affect the evolution of WD progenitors. We show that the current uncertainties in the branching ratios constitute the main uncertainty factor in determining the inner composition of ultramassive WDs and their progenitors. We found that the use of extreme branching ratios leads to differences in the central abundances of 20Ne of at most 17%, which are translated into differences of at most 1.3% and 0.8% in the cooling times and size of the crystallized core, respectively. However, the impact on the pulsation properties is small, less than 1 s for the asymptotic period spacing. We found that the carbon burns partially in the interior of ultramassive WD progenitors within a particular range of masses, leaving a hybrid CONe-core composition in their cores. The evolution of these new kinds of predicted objects differs substantially from the evolution of objects with pure CO cores. Differences in the size of the crystallized core and cooling times of up to 15% and 6%, respectively, lead to distinct patterns in the period spacing distribution.

The circular bioeconomy of the olive oil industry: Deterministic and probabilistic profitability of olive mill by-product gasification

In the novel paradigm of the circular economy the value of products, materials, and resources is retained in the economy for as long as possible, thereby minimizing waste generation. In this context, the olive oil producing countries are presented with a new opportunity that lies in the large amount of by-products generated by the olive oil industry, in particular olive pomace. Among the existing options for valorizing it, gasification is a technically proven and economically viable process, especially for moderately high energy prices. This research aims to analyze the profitability of olive pomace gasification, identifying the main uncertainty factors that determine said profitability. To that end, sensitivity analyses and probabilistic scenario analyses using the Monte Carlo method are conducted for the first time in this research context. The results show a positive profit margin of €19.27 per ton of milled olives, a Net Present Value (NPV) of €453,067, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 9.7 %. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the electricity price is the main determinant of profitability, while other factors, such as the biomass price or the sale of by-products (biochar), are less important. The Monte Carlo analysis reveals the uncertainty involved in these types of projects, showing that the probability of the investment being profitable (NPV>0) is only 25.1 %. The assessment evidences that this kind of projects presents high capital needs and strongly uncertain profitability, recommending the implementation of public and private green finance instruments to overcome high-capital barriers and de-risk these investments.

Resilience and cultural landscapes

Current climatc, social and fnancial phenomena have triggered deep modifcatons in cultural landscapes, threatening their fragile territories and the communites that live in them. Nevertheless, they also represent a challenge to fnd a renewed link between forms of human actvity and the producton of landscape in order to understand its future evolutons. This paper deals with this feld of investgaton in the context of the Cinque Terre Natonal Park, in Italy, through scenario planning criteria with the goal of rethinking the heritagelisted system of traditonal terraced agriculture systems as an infrastructural element for a resilient territory. Startng from the Universal Soil Loss Equaton (USLE), it identfes the main territorial factors of uncertainty and accordingly suggests possible interventon categories on the wider scale of the so-called slope units, through 2x2 matrixes. Defning a resilient transformaton program for the environmental system of the Cinque Terre Natonal Park over a twenty-year tme frame means considering adaptability as a key aspect in diferent scenarios that might be generated in the near future.

Future changes of snow-related variables in different European regions

Snow has an important role in the climate system and also has environmental, natural and socio-economic impacts. Temperature, precipitation, snow coverage, snow depth and snowmelt are analysed in this study for 1971–2099 based on EURO-CORDEX simulations. In order to measure uncertainty, three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and five different regional climate models are taken into account. The investigation focuses on eight regions, characterised by different climatic conditions (maritime, continental, boreal). Relative changes of the selected parameters are calculated for 2021–2050 and 2069–2098 compared to 1971–2000 reference period, in addition to the evaluation of the simulated reference. The relative role of the three main uncertainty factors (internal climatic variability, model selection, and used scenario) is also analysed. According to our results, model selection and internal variability possess the most important roles. Based on the multi-model mean, annual mean temperature and precipitation total will increase, the snow cover period will become shorter (the higher the radiative forcing change in the scenario, the greater the decrease), and the snowmelt process is likely to occur earlier in the northern region. Thus, the warming trend seems to have a greater effect on the snow-related variables than increasing precipitation trends. These projected changes may have a huge impact on winter tourism and sports, hence, appropriate adaptation strategies will be crucial.

Current situation and influencing factors of disease uncertainty in parents of children with Sturge‒Weber syndrome: a retrospective study

BackgroundSturge Weber syndrome (SWS), can cause extensive capillary malformations on the face, head, trunk, and other parts of the body, and the eyes can also suffer optic nerve injury. Secondary glaucoma can cause blindness, which has the characteristics of a relatively hidden onset and unclear pathogenesis. The treatment of SWS secondary glaucoma has always been difficult, and due to the characteristics of the disease, there is uncertainty about the long-term efficacy and safety of various treatment methods for such patients.MethodsA total of 105 parents of children with SWS completed a self-designed general information questionnaire, a generalized anxiety questionnaire (GAD-7), a patient health questionnaire (PHQ-2), a stress perception scale (PSS-4), a simple coping scale (SCSQ) and a disease-uncertainty scale (PPUS).ResultsThe total uncertainty score of parents of children with SWS was 79.07 ± 13.24, and the average item score was 2.82 ± 0.47. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that anxiety and simple coping were the main influencing factors of disease uncertainty among parents of children with SWS (P < 0.05).ConclusionsParents of children with SWS exhibit a high level of disease uncertainty. Medical staff should pay attention to the source of parents' disease uncertainty and provide targeted interventions, which are of great importance in reducing parents' disease uncertainty.

Quantification of the uncertainty in multiscale validation of coarse-resolution satellite albedo products: A study based on airborne CASI data

The uncertainty in the multiscale validation of coarse-pixel satellite albedo product significantly reduces the reliability of validation results but has not yet been quantitatively assessed. To close this knowledge gap, this study first analyzed the main uncertainty factors in the procedure of multiscale validation, and then proposed the quantification method for measuring the uncertainty caused by different factors. Finally, the propagation law of these uncertainty factors into the final uncertainty of validation results was established. Our analysis demonstrates that the uncertainty of multiscale validation mainly comes from the errors in high-resolution albedo maps, the errors generated in the upscaling process, and the errors caused by the geolocation mismatch between reference albedo and satellite albedo. These uncertainty factors are uncorrelated with each other and linearly propagated into the final uncertainty of validation results. The influence of these uncertainty factors partly depends on their magnitudes and partly depends on their weighting coefficients. The systematic errors in high-resolution albedo maps propagate into the errors of pixel scale ground “truth” linearly with slope coefficients equal to or slightly smaller than 1, depending on the std. of noise. And then the pixel scale ground “truth” propagates into the final validation results with the weighting coefficient close to −1. But the non-systematic errors are more likely to be balanced out through the upscaling process in the case of a small subpixel size. The errors generated in the upscaling procedure are generally within the range of −3%-3%. Moreover, their negative weighting coefficients are very small, with a magnitude of less than 0.01. Consequently, the contribution of the errors generated in the upscaling process is negligibly small. By contrast, the errors caused by geolocation mismatch are significant, with the values ranging from −10% to 25%, which exceed the 5% accuracy requirement of satellite albedo products proposed by GCOS. Furthermore, its contribution to the overall uncertainty of validation results is significant, with large weighting coefficients close to 1. The magnitudes of these uncertainty factors and their weighting coefficients show dependence on subpixel sizes. Generally, a fine subpixel size is preferred in multiscale validation because it not only reduces the influence of non-systematic errors of high-resolution albedo maps but also enables more stable and reliable upscaling results. This study deepens the consciousness and understanding of the uncertainty embedded in multiscale validation results, which takes an important step toward more reliable validation over heterogeneous surfaces.

Day-ahead optimal scheduling of smart electric storage heaters: A real quantification of uncertainty factors

Optimized controls are particularly promising for flexible and efficient management of space heating and cooling systems in buildings. However, when controls are based on predictive models, their effectiveness is affected by the reliability of the models used. In this paper we propose a quantification analysis of some of the main uncertainty factors that can be observed in an optimal control really implemented in a building. A day-ahead optimal scheduling was applied to the heating system (composed of smart electric heaters with thermal storage) of a single room in an office building located in Osimo (Italy). The control algorithm is formulated to determine the charging periods of the heaters with the objective of minimizing the withdrawal of energy from the grid. The control takes into account the electricity produced by a photovoltaic plant and must maintain the internal air temperature close to an imposed setpoint.Firstly, the actual application of the control is shown during two selected days. Secondly, the analysis is extended to quantify the impact on the control performance of the prediction uncertainty of the input variables. The variable that has the greatest impact is the weather forecast and, specifically, the cloudiness index, which determines the solar gains. The different moment in time in which the weather forecast is predicted has proved to have a significant impact on the charging periods of the heaters (expected variation ranges from -50% to + 100%) and on the prediction of the indoor air temperature (variations observed up to 40%).

Exploring Project Uncertainty and Leadership Strategies

Managing projects under conditions of uncertainty requires a fundamental shift in how project leaders plan and execute initiatives. They need to reimagine not just their vision and purpose but adopt new ways of thinking that will allow them to thrive at a time of extraordinary change and disruption. The project manager's leadership style needs to be tailored to mitigate various sources of uncertainty. This study identifies main domains and factors of project uncertainty and synthesizes leadership competencies to address such uncertainty. By constantly evaluating the characteristics of these domains, project managers are more likely to convert “unknown unknowns” to “known unknowns.” It is argued that certain leadership competencies are necessary to find new approaches and achieve an advantage in crisis. Adoption of critical leadership competencies by the project manager is key to move from crisis prone to crisis prepared.

Nocturnal enuresis in children: Parents' perspectives.

AimParents of children with nocturnal enuresis (NE) may have uncertainty and anxiety. This study aimed to investigate the level of uncertainty and anxiety in the parents of children with NE and analyse its influencing factors.DesignWe conducted a descriptive cross‐sectional study among the parents of children with NE in China.MethodsA general information questionnaire, the Parent Perception of Uncertainty Scale (PPUS), and the Self‐Rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) were used. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing the parental uncertainty level independently.ResultsA total of 247 valid questionnaires were collected. The PPUS score of children with NE was 81.18 ± 10.82, and the anxiety self‐rating scale score was 41.86 ± 9.20. Parents' working status, the family’s per capita monthly income, and the children’s treatment time were the main influencing factors of parental illness uncertainty.

ОЦІНКА БАГАТОРІЧНИХ ПРОСТОРОВО-ЧАСОВИХ ЗМІН ХІМІЧНОГО СКЛАДУ ПІДЗЕМНИХ ВОД У ЗОНІ ВПЛИВУ КОЛИШНЬОГО УРАН-ПЕРЕРОБНОГО ПІДПРИЄМСТВА ВО «ПРИДНІПРОВСЬКИЙ ХІМІЧНИЙ ЗАВОД»

This study provides an analysis of data from long-term (2005-2021) observations of the chemical composition of groundwater in the impact zone of the former uranium ore processing enterprise (Production Union Prydniprovskyi Chemical Plant (PU “PChP”) in the city of Kamianske, in particular, areas of near-surface tailings of uranium ore processed residues (“Zapadnoe”, “Central Yar” and others). All tailings on the site of the former PU “PChP” were built without installation of anti-permeable barriers, and therefore under the influence of atmospheric precipitation, the water, formed in the tailings body, highly contaminated of uranium series radionuclides and residues of chemical reagents, can penetrate to the groundwater aquifers, with which they spread beyond the limits of their technological localization in tailings. In addition, the entire territory of the former industrial site of mining and chemical production “PChP” is a complex of former enterprises, septic tanks, production waste holding sites, warehouses of chemical reagents and residues of former production, which are also sources of man-made pollution of the territory and influence on chronic pollution of groundwater. Therefore, environmental monitoring programs in the impact zone of tailings impoundments included not only monitoring of indicators of the content of uranium series radionuclides in elements of the natural environment, but also studying of the chemical composition of waters. The analysis of observation data during the period from 2005 to 2021 was carried out in order to assess the extent of the spread of polluted waters beyond the limits of the location of the tailings ponds, to identify major macroions in the composition of groundwater as indicators for assessing the spread of the contamination plume beyond the boundaries of the tailings ponds, as well as to identify patterns of formation the groundwater quality within the site under the influence of man-made and natural factors. It is shown that the mineralization of groundwater, as well as its chemical composition, significantly changed as the sampling site moved away from the tailings. Changes in the chemical composition of water and the dominant content of the major macroions at different distances from the tailing’s ponds made it possible to determine the difference in the characteristics of the influence of infiltration waters from the source of the tailing’s ponds and scattered sources of pollution within the boundaries of the PChP site along the groundwater flow line. The main factors of uncertainty in the estimations of the formation of groundwater chemistry in the zone of the industrial complex are shown, which must be taken into account for the development of the network of monitoring observations.

Assessment of the Financial and Economic Security Level of the EAEU Member States in the Context of Growing Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The main factors of macroeconomic uncertainty for the Eurasian Economic Union member states are the threat of a global financial crisis, long-term restrictive measures associated with the spread of the pandemic, trade wars between major states, new sanctions, volatility in commodity prices, growing inflationary pressures, internal risks of tightening monetary policy, volatility of national currencies, as well as an increase in the budget deficit and total debt. There is a need to protect against undesirable external influences and radical internal changes in the conditions of global instability, to assess the socio-economic potential of the Eurasian Economic Union member states on the way to a single integration space, in other words, the need for security is a basic, fundamental need, both for the life of an individual and including society and the state, which makes this study more relevant. The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on many economic and social processes. In these difficult conditions of external factors' influence, the system of ensuring financial and economic security acquires significance. The conducted research allows concluding that, firstly, the economic security of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is a complex concept that reflects the state of the financial system of countries, their ability to timely and reliably meet needs of the economy in the amounts necessary to provide growth of the economy in the conditions of integration. Moreover, the indicators of budget and stability of investments of each of the countries determine the level of the EAEU member financial security.

The active role of the user in the search for thermal comfort of dwellings in a temperate arid climate

User behavior is one of the main factors of uncertainty in the thermal performance of a dwelling. This study contributes to identifying variables that would influence the user behavior and, in turn, how these affect the thermal performance of houses located in the city of Mendoza. For this, a thermal audit of a representative dwelling was made in summer and winter, while also recording occupancy and occupant actions. It was concluded that, in summer, correct management of the envelope through night cooling favors reaching indoor comfort in 89% of the recorded data. In winter, the correct use of direct solar gain favors reaching comfort in 60% of the recorded data. Finally, alternatives for building improvements are evaluated for the most unfavorable season.

The two-step process of ovarian follicular growth and maturation in mammals can be compared to a fruit ripening where quality depends on the second step.

In human in vitro fertilization, the main uncertainty factor impacting on success is oocyte quality, which largely depends on the follicular status at the time of collection. Decades of debate ensued to find the perfect stimulation protocol demonstrated the complexity of the ovarian response to exogenous gonadotropins and the dynamic nature of late folliculogenesis. Although several follicular markers, proteins, RNA from granulosa cells or microRNA, and follicular fluid metabolites have been associated with outcome, the possibility to influence them during stimulation remains elusive. The heterogeneity of the follicle's maturity following control ovarian stimulation is also an important factor to explain average poor oocyte quality still observed today. In this review, the analogy between the apple ripening on the tree and follicular development is presented to focus the attention on a biphasic process: growth and differentiation. The molecular analysis of the progressive follicular differentiation indicates two competing phenomena: growth and differentiation, where a delicate balance must operate from one to the other to ensure proper maturity at ovulation. As long as follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) stimulates growth, follicles remain green, and it is only when FSH is replaced by luteinizing hormone that the ripening process begins, and "apples" become red. Both fruits, follicles and apples, depend on a perfect timing of events to generate offspring.

Can small reservoirs be used to gauge stream runoff?

Understanding stream runoff generation processes requires distributed stream runoff estimates; however the acquisition of such estimates remains challenging in hydrology, especially in remote areas. In regions with a high spatial density of small reservoirs, those reservoirs could be employed to gauge stream runoff (Liebe et al., 2009). Using a water balance approach, the stream runoff flowing into a reservoir from a drainage catchment could be estimated. Accordingly, this work aims to address the following two questions: i) what is the error in the estimated stream runoff and ii) what are the main estimation uncertainty factors? Based on a case study of the Kamech catchment, Tunisia, stream runoff was estimated at different temporal resolutions (1–32 days), and a global sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the contributions of the reservoir water balance terms (evaporation, rainfall, percolation, reservoir water level and level-area-volume relations) to the estimated stream runoff uncertainty.The results reveal that stream runoff can be reliably estimated based on small reservoirs using a mass balance approach. The error and global stream runoff estimation uncertainties decrease as the temporal resolution increases. The bathymetric relationships (level-area and level-volume relations) constitute a strong factor of uncertainty for all temporal resolutions, and even the dominant factor for temporal resolutions ranging from 4 to 23 days. The estimation uncertainty for the shortest temporal resolutions (1–8 days) mainly originates from reservoir level uncertainty. As the temporal resolution increases, the contribution of percolation uncertainty increases. The general (not site-specific) conclusions of this study are that stream runoff gauging based on small reservoirs requires the determination of the bathymetric relations and that small reservoirs could be used as reliable stream runoff gauges at short temporal resolutions if the reservoir level is measured with limited uncertainty and at long temporal resolutions as long as the percolation rate from the reservoir is known with limited uncertainty.

High-Precision Surface Scattering Measurement System and Uncertainty Analysis Applied in Laser Protective Materials Diagnostics

The current measurement system of surface scattering rate applied in laser protective materials has the defects of low accuracy, discontinuous diagnosis region and narrow infrared measuring waveband. In order to make up for these shortcomings, a high-precision material-surface-scattering-rate measurement system based on a three-hole integrating sphere is proposed, which can realize the high-precision quantitative measurement on any region of coating surface from near-infrared to far-infrared band. Firstly, a new quantitative relationship between the luminous flux received by detector and the surface scattering rate of coating is obtained by modifying the existing integrating sphere scattering model. Secondly, a high-precision scattering characteristic measurement system based on a three-hole integrating sphere is designed and achieved. The influence of the main design parameters of the integrating sphere on the expected measuring accuracy of the system is investigated by using a TracePro simulation. Accordingly, the optimal design parameters of the system are given. Then, the main sources of the relative measurement uncertainty for the scattering rate are investigated experimentally, and four main relative uncertainty factors are evaluated quantitatively. Finally, according to the error propagation theory, the total experimental relative measurement uncertainty of the system is obtained, which is ±2.22% and 26–56% higher than the current measuring accuracy. The new coating-scattering-rate measurement system proposed in this paper can provide an effective experimental detection means for high-precision quantitative measurement and a performance evaluation for laser-protective-coating surface-scattering rate.

Identification of Uncertainty Factors in the Consumer Behaviour of the New Generation of Customers at the E-commerce Level

Even though two decades have passed since the introduction of e-commerce in the B2C model, the uncertainty posed by the online environment makes many consumers reluctant to engage in online commerce. The buyer's behaviour is inherently uncertain, given that the buyer's decisions have consequences that cannot be fully predicted. In the relationship between the buyer and the seller, the perceived uncertainty is defined as the extent to which the buyer cannot accurately predict the outcome of the transaction due to factors related to the seller and the product. This paper deals with the uncertainty of the new generation of customers in the process of electronic commerce. Based on the analysis of previous research in the field of perception of and understanding of uncertainty in online transactions, the aim of this paper is to identify the sources of perceived uncertainty of Generation Y when shopping online. Research in this area was carried out using the method of the main components, based on which five factors related to uncertainty and concerns in the process of electronic commerce were extracted. The paper identifies the main factors of uncertainty perceived by customers and also verifies the correlation between these factors and the intention of the Millennials to buy. The subject matter is relevant and applicable both to the area of products but also to the area of services in the field of tourism and hospitality.

Креативное управление кадрами регионального АПК в условиях макроэкономической нестабильности

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate creative innovative technologies for personnel management of agricultural enterprises in the context of macroeconomic instability and uncertainty. The object of the study. The development of innovative technologies is an important condition for the formation of creative management of the personnel of enterprises. In the context of the transition to a new technological structure and the modern scientific and industrial revolution, fundamentally new technologies for human resource management arise and develop. Modern society is a society of a new type, a “risk society” (W. Beck). Therefore, creative management includes not only innovative approaches to solving the problems of personnel policy, but also new technologies for working with risks. In the context of growing macroeconomic instability and uncertainty, creative personnel management is a risk-oriented practice of recruiting, placing and organizing the work of specialists, developing their professional qualities. Methods. The study used the methods of structural-functional, program-target and comparative analysis. The subject of the research is new technologies of risk-oriented creative personnel management of agricultural enterprises. The object of the research is the personnel management system as an integral element of the system of social and labor relations. Results. The main factors of macroeconomic instability and uncertainty are identified. A detailed classification of existing personnel risks is given. The features are revealed and the practice of new technologies of personnel management is analyzed (blockchain, crowdstaffing, crowdfunding, crowdsourcing, etc.). The difficulties of adapting creative technologies of personnel management to modern conditions are shown. The thesis about the expediency of developing the practice of labor self-government at modern enterprises is argued. Scientific novelty. The author's interpretation of the essence of creative personnel management is formulated and reasoned, and its difference from innovative management is revealed. Shown is the most important manifestation of the creativity of personnel management associated with the management of personnel risks in the context of macroeconomic instability.

Optimal Scale of Development of Nuclear Energy in the UES of Russia to 2050

The development of nuclear power plants in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia in the period to 2050 under changing conditions of interfuel competition with thermal and renewable energetics is examined. The main external uncertainty factors affecting NPP competitiveness are identified and their ranges are determined. The technological factors of making NPP more competitive by improving their technical and economic metrics are determined. A summary analysis of the calculations performed in the optimization model of the development of electro-energetics is presented and the role of NPP in the technological restructuring of the UES is determined. The contribution of nuclear energy in raising the energy security and environmental friendliness of electro-energetics and in curbing greenhouse gas emissions was investigated.

POLARIMETRIC CALIBRATION OF THE SPACEBORNE DIRECTIONAL POLARIMETRIC CAMERA INSTALLED ON THE GF-5 SATELLITE

Abstract. The Spaceborne Directional Polarimetric Camera (SDPC) is dedicated to obtain an accurate information of clouds and microphysical properties of aerosol particles via multi-angle, multi-spectral and multi-polarization observations. It images the Earth with 110° field of view (FOV) in 3 polarimetric spectral bands and 5 non-polarimetric spectral bands from visible to near infrared. Due to its wide FOV telecentric optical system and multi-channels, polarization sensitivity of optical components (PSOC) and non-uniform response of pixels (NURP) are the main uncertainty factors of polarimetric calibration.In this paper, a polarimetric calibration model of SDPC has been constructed for increasing the measurement accuracy. Combined an integrating sphere with a polarization generator as source, PSOC can be measured in high accuracy by using the Fourier series analysis method which reduces the impact form the alignment error of the generator. The sectional viewing field measurement method is used to acquire NURP while the large aperture integrating sphere served as reference source. Subsequently, the data of NURP have been corrected by the relative transmittance of high frequency and low frequency respectively for polarized channels. The result of validation experiment shows that the polarization measurement errors in 0°, 15°, 30°, and 45° half field of view (HFOV) are all less than 0.5% when the degree of linear polarization of reference source is larger than 0.1.

Modeling indirect N2O emissions along the N cascade from cropland soils to rivers

The frequently observed discrepancy between estimations of N2O emissions at regional or global scale based either on field data or inventories (bottom-up) or on direct atmospheric observations (top-down) suggests that riparian areas and river surfaces play a significant role as hot spots of emission. We developed a modeling procedure to assess N2O emissions occurring during the transfer of water masses from the subroot water pool of the watershed to the outlet of the river drainage network, including their passage through riparian wetlands. The model was applied to three river basins of increasing size located in the sedimentary geological area of the Paris basin (France) and validated by its capability to predict river N2O concentrations and fluxes across the river–atmosphere interface. At the scale of the Seine watershed, indirect emissions, i.e. emissions linked to agricultural practices but occurring elsewhere than directly at the field plot, are estimated to represent approximately 20% of the direct emissions from the watershed soils, in good agreement with previous estimates based on empirical accounting approaches. Denitrification in riparian zones is responsible for the largest share of these indirect emissions. The model results are very sensitive to the value of the ratio of N2O versus (N2 + N2O), in the final products of denitrification in rivers and wetlands. By calibration on river N2O concentrations, a value of 0.015 ± 0.05 is proposed for this ratio, in agreement with recent studies. This represents the main uncertainty factor of the model. In basins with conditions prone to increasing the value of this ratio, higher proportions of indirect N2O emissions might possibly be observed.