Future changes of snow-related variables in different European regions

Abstract

Snow has an important role in the climate system and also has environmental, natural and socio-economic impacts. Temperature, precipitation, snow coverage, snow depth and snowmelt are analysed in this study for 1971–2099 based on EURO-CORDEX simulations. In order to measure uncertainty, three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and five different regional climate models are taken into account. The investigation focuses on eight regions, characterised by different climatic conditions (maritime, continental, boreal). Relative changes of the selected parameters are calculated for 2021–2050 and 2069–2098 compared to 1971–2000 reference period, in addition to the evaluation of the simulated reference. The relative role of the three main uncertainty factors (internal climatic variability, model selection, and used scenario) is also analysed. According to our results, model selection and internal variability possess the most important roles. Based on the multi-model mean, annual mean temperature and precipitation total will increase, the snow cover period will become shorter (the higher the radiative forcing change in the scenario, the greater the decrease), and the snowmelt process is likely to occur earlier in the northern region. Thus, the warming trend seems to have a greater effect on the snow-related variables than increasing precipitation trends. These projected changes may have a huge impact on winter tourism and sports, hence, appropriate adaptation strategies will be crucial.