Madden–Julian Oscillation Phases Research Articles

Climatology of extreme cold events in the central Peruvian Andes during austral summer: origin, types and teleconnections

The climatological and large‐scale characteristics of the extreme cold events (ECEs) in the central Peruvian Andes (Mantaro basin (MB)) during austral summer (January–March) are examined using reanalysis, gridded and in situ surface minimum temperature (Tmin) data for the 1979–2010 period.To describe the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on ECEs in the MB, two ECE groups are defined on the basis of the sign of the outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) anomalies in the MJO band (30–100 days, 0–9 eastward) at 12.5°S, 75°W. Type‐1 ECEs occur during the suppressed convection phase of the MJO (OLR anomalies ≥+2 W/m2) while Type‐2 ECEs occur during the enhanced convection phase of the MJO (OLR anomalies ≤−2 W/m2).ECEs in the MB are associated with the advection of cold and dry air along the east of the Andes through equatorward propagation of extratropical Rossby wave trains (ERWTs). This cold advection weakens the Bolivian High–Nordeste Low (BH‐NL) system over South America (SA) at upper‐tropospheric levels.The MJO is an important driver of ECEs in the MB, favouring the cold advection along the Andes during specific MJO phases. Fifty‐nine per cent of Type‐1 ECE's and 86% of Type‐2 ECE's occur in MJO Phases 7‐2. Type‐1 and 2 ECEs feature a weakened BH over SA at upper‐tropospheric levels. For Type‐1, ERWTs emanate from southeastern Africa in MJO Phases 8‐1 while ERWTs are strengthened when crossing the subtropical southern Pacific Ocean during MJO Phases 2 and 7. With respect to Type‐2, MJO Phases 7‐2 feature circumpolar Rossby wave trains propagating toward SA.Ultimately, MJO Phases 7‐2 induce negative Tmin anomalies over MB, while MJO Phases 3‐6 induce positive Tmin anomalies. El Niño and La Niña strengthen negative Tmin anomalies over the MB during MJO Phases 7‐8 while they weaken positive Tmin anomalies over the MB during MJO Phases 3‐6.

MJO Affects the Monsoon Onset Timing Over the Indian Region

AbstractThis study examines the linkage between the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and the South Asian summer monsoon onset through spatiotemporal wave‐filtering and composite analyses of observational data sets during 1979–2016. We identify two major factors in determining the summer monsoon onset timing: the background conditions associated with seasonal transitions and the intraseasonal variations associated with an active MJO. The background conditions undergo sharp seasonal transition over the western Indian Ocean two to three pentads before the onset dates, while a typical monsoon onset is often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the Indian Ocean, likely due to the promotion by the MJO‐initiated eastward propagating westerly wind anomaly. Conversely, the atmospheric circulation associated with the leading dry phase of a strong MJO during the climatological mean onset dates may lead to a delayed monsoon onset.

Interactions between intraseasonal and diurnal variability of precipitation in the South Central Pacific: The case of a small high island, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Intraseasonal and diurnal variability of precipitation over Tahiti, French Polynesia, are investigated with the use of wind regimes as intermediary tools. Four wind regimes have been determined over a large domain around Tahiti in the wet season. It has been shown that some phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) trigger some regimes and undermine some others. The diurnal cycle of precipitation in Tahiti is composed of two rainfall maxima. A frequent maximum at midnight but with a low value. An afternoon maximum, less frequent but with a higher value. We have noticed that the afternoon rainfall maximum, which is a reasonable consequence of the sea breeze circulation, is smoothen on the windward side when vigorous wind regimes obstruct the development of the sea breeze. We have also found that daily mean precipitation is significantly increased during MJO Phases 7 and 8, and reduced during Phases 2 and 3. Phase 8 is the wettest phase on Tahiti, suggesting the convective envelope is overlooking the island. Lastly, we have provided evidence that the diurnal cycle of rainfall is significantly affected by the MJO. Indeed, both the midnight and afternoon maxima increase during MJO Phase 7. The most quiescent wind regimes are triggered during Phase 7, as a result from the propagation of the westerly wind anomaly, which allow the development of the sea breeze circulation and the increase of the afternoon peak. For MJO Phase 8, however, the above relationships break down, as the diurnal cycle is not enhanced by the predominant quiescent wind regimes. We assume that the MJO convective envelope covers the island and stays several days, preventing the solar heating of the surface, hence the development of the land/sea breeze circulation, and foremost leads to higher amounts of rainfall as the Phase 8 is the wettest phase on Tahiti.

Determination of Intraseasonal Variation of Precipitation Microphysics in the Southern Indian Ocean from Joss–Waldvogel Disdrometer Observation during the CINDY Field Campaign

To date, the intraseasonal variation of raindrop size distribution (DSD) in response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined only over the Indonesian Maritime Continent, particularly in Sumatra. This paper presents the intraseasonal variation of DSD over the Indian Ocean during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY 2011) field campaign. The DSDs determined using a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer, which was installed on the roof of the anti-rolling system of the R/V Mirai during stationary observation (25 September to 30 November 2011) at (8°S, 80.5°E), were analyzed. The vertical structure of precipitation was revealed by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (version 7) data. While the general features of vertical structures of precipitation observed during the CINDY and Sumatra observation are similar, the intraseasonal variation of the DSD in response to the MJO at each location is slightly different. The DSDs during the active phase of the MJO are slightly broader than those during the inactive phase, which is indicated by a larger mass-weighted mean diameter value. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity during the active MJO phase is greater than that during the inactive phase at the same rainfall rate. The microphysical processes that generate large-sized drops over the ocean appear to be more dominant during the active MJO phase, in contrast to the observations made on land (Sumatra). This finding is consistent with the characteristics of radar reflectivity below the freezing level, storm height, bright band height, cloud effective radius, and aerosol optical depth.

Influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on Costa Rican mid‐summer drought timing

The Central American mid‐summer drought (MSD) is the decline of precipitation during the middle of the wet season (July and August) over Central America and southern Mexico. It affects agriculture and favours the initiation of bushfires in Costa Rica's national parks, particularly during El Niño years. The MSD is a seasonal phenomenon that varies in intensity and timing inter‐annually. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to influence Costa Rican rainfall on intra‐seasonal time scales, and therefore may be important to the MSD. In this study we use rainfall data from seven stations in Costa Rica to analyse the MJO's influence on the timing of the onset and end of the MSD. We find that the MSD is more likely to start and end in MJO Phases 1 and 8, respectively. Our findings indicate enhanced MSD predictability on intra‐seasonal time scales, which could be beneficial to agricultural planning in Costa Rica.

Impact of Convective Gravity Waves on the Tropical Middle Atmosphere During the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prominently influences weather systems in the tropical Indian Ocean region. Although understanding of the MJO has improved over the last decade, insufficient simulation of the MJO still considerably degrades forecasting skill of atmospheric models. In this study we investigate the interaction of gravity waves (GWs) from convection with the background atmosphere during MJO cycles between 1979 and 2010. For this, we utilize a parameterization of convective GW (CGW) forcing and propagation to evaluate the entire life cycle of GWs from their convective excitation to their dissipation in the tropical upper stratosphere region. CGW forcing at source level was calculated using the Song and Chun (2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-3363.1) parameterization. We performed simulations for all respective MJO phases and MJO cycles during a period of 32 years using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the full spectrum of CGWs. Our results show a clear connection between 850 hPa winds and zonal momentum flux during all MJO phases. This prominent momentum flux feature changes with the progress of each MJO cycle. Zonal means of eastward directed momentum flux also show this correlation. Furthermore, we estimated the spectral characteristics of launched GWs and found significant GW momentum flux for horizontal wavelengths as short as 80 km at launch altitude. Eastward GW drag (GWD) consistently shows a maximum at altitudes below 40 km and prominent westward GWD at altitudes higher than 40 km. Additionally, we investigated the impact of the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on our findings with GWD found stronger during the QBO easterly phase compared to the QBO westerly phase.

A Paper on the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation Published in 1963 in a Chinese Journal

AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) identified by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s has been well recognized as the most prominent intraseasonal signal in the tropics. Its discovery and its relationship with other weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most significant advancements in modern meteorology with broad and far-reaching impacts. The original study by Madden and Julian used radiosonde data on Canton Island, and their spectral analysis revealed the signal of a 40–50-day oscillation.It has come to our attention that an earlier study by Xie et al. published in a Chinese journal documented an oscillatory signal of a 45-day period using radiosonde data from several stations between 70° and 125°E in the tropics. The 40–50-day signal found by Xie et al. is strikingly evident without any filtering. Xie et al. identified that occurrences of TCs are correlated with the 40–50-day variation of low-level westerlies at these stations. The original figures in Xie et al.’s article were hand drawn. Their results are verified using data from a longer period of 1958–70. The 40–50-day oscillation in the monsoon westerlies and its relationship with the occurrence of TCs are confirmed and further expanded upon.This study serves the purpose of bringing recognition to the community of the identification of a 40–50-day signal published in Chinese in 1963 and the discovery of the correlation between MJO phases and TC genesis three decades earlier than studies on this subject published outside China.

Circulation Features Associated with the Record-breaking Typhoon Silence in August 2014

Climatologically, August is the month with the most tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the typhoon season. In this study, the reason for abnormal TC activity during August is discussed—especially August 2014, when no TCs formed. The large-scale background of August 2014 is presented, with low-level large-scale easterly anomalies and anticyclonic anomalies dominating over the main TC genesis region, a weak monsoon trough system, and a strong WNP subtropical high (WPSH), leading to significantly reduced low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and mid-level upward motion. These unfavorable large-scale conditions suppressed convection and cyclogenesis. In August 2014, equatorial waves were inactive within the negative phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), with fewer tropical disturbances. Although the low-level vorticity and convection of those disturbances were partly promoted by the convective envelopes of equatorial waves, the integral evolution of disturbances, as well as the equatorial waves, were suppressed when propagating into the negative MJO phase. Moreover, the upper-level potential vorticity (PV) streamers associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events imported extratropical cold and dry air into the tropics. The peripheral tropospheric dryness and enhanced vertical wind shear by PV streamer intrusion combined with the negative MJO phase were responsible for the absence of TC formation over the WNP in August 2014.

Assessing the Relationship between MJO and Equatorial Pacific WWBs in Observations and CMIP5 Models

AbstractThis study evaluates the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the occurrence of equatorial Pacific westerly wind bursts (WWBs). During the convective MJO phase, anomalous surface westerlies prevail in and west of the convective MJO center, providing favorable conditions for WWBs. Compared with the probability of WWBs expected under a null hypothesis that WWBs occur randomly, the convective MJO phase almost doubles the probability of a WWB occurring. Nevertheless, only 34.46% of WWBs co-occur with the convective MJO, which is much less than that reported in previous studies. We show that when the MJO and WWBs are defined using the same field with overlapping frequencies, the percentage of WWBs co-occurring with the convective MJO shows a significant increase. However, the higher percentage is simply caused by the fact that the strong WWBs during a convective MJO are more likely to be identified than those during the suppressed and neutral MJO phases. A total of 45.80% of WWBs are found to occur in the full MJO phase (both the convective and suppressed MJO phases), which is slightly higher than that expected based on randomness. Although the full MJO has statistically significant impact on the likelihood of WWBs, the influence from the full MJO on the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is much weaker as compared to that from the WWBs. The relationships between the MJO and WWBs simulated in CMIP5 models are also assessed, and the percentage of WWBs that co-occur with the MJO simulated in models is in general less than that in observations.

Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America

AbstractIn this study, the intraseasonal variations in storm-track activity, surface air temperature, and precipitation over North America associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter (November–April) are investigated. A lag composite strategy that considers different MJO phases and different lag days is developed. The results highlight regions over which the MJO has significant impacts on surface weather on intraseasonal time scales. A north–south shift of storm-track activity associated with the MJO is found over North America. The shift is consistent with the MJO-related surface air temperature anomaly over the eastern United States. In many regions over the western, central, and southeastern United States, the MJO-related precipitation signal is also consistent with nearby storm-track activity. An MJO-related north–south shift of precipitation is also found near the west coast of North America, with the precipitation over California being consistent with the MJO-related storm-track activity over the eastern Pacific. MJO-related temperature and storm-track anomalies are also found near Alaska. Further analyses of streamfunction anomalies and wave activity flux show clear signatures of Rossby wave trains excited by convection anomalies related to MJO phases 3 and 8. These wave trains propagate across the Pacific and North America, bringing an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly to the eastern part of North America, shifting the westerly jet to the north (south), thereby modulating the surface air temperature and storm-track activity over the continent. Rossby waves associated with phases 2 and 6 are also found to impact the U.S. West Coast.

Extreme rainfall indices in Distrito Federal, Brazil: Trends and links with El Niño southern oscillation and Madden–Julian oscillation

This study investigates trends and the effects of the interannual and intraseasonal climate variability on the extreme weather of Brazil's capital city Distrito Federal (DF). This area is highly vulnerable to climate variability, having suffered from droughts and floods that affected the drinking water supply and agriculture. We perform trend analysis of 12 rainfall‐related indices from 13 ground observation stations and assess the influence of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall totals and extreme indices. The trend analysis confirms: (a) the increase of the dry spells length and (b) the anticipation of the onset of dry periods at regional level. That is also true when considering dry spells in the rainy season, a hazard known in the agriculture sector as “verânico.” On the other hand, extreme wet conditions became less severe in the last decades. Supressed monthly rainfall conditions, and some wet indices, are associated with La Niña episodes. The MJO's intraseasonal variability seems to play a substantial role in DF's climate. MJO phases 3, 7 and 8 are associated to enhanced rainfall conditions; whereas rainfall is supressed during phase 5. Moreover, dry spells during the rainy season, or “verânico,” often coincide with MJO phase 5. When combined with ENSO, the basic response of rainfall to MJO activity changes substantially showing statistically significant influence of El Niño on phases 2 and 8; while La Niña on phases 4, 6 and 7. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the ongoing changes in extreme climate as well as the influence of natural climate variability on local's climate, information that can be used in the management of water resources and land use of DF.

Effect of Madden–Julian Oscillation Occurrence Frequency on the Interannual Variability of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Wave Activity in Winter

This study uses reanalysis datasets and numerical experiments to investigate the influence of the occurrence frequency of the individual phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the interannual variability of stratospheric wave activity in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter [November–February (NDJF)]. Our analysis reveals that the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 in winter is significantly positively correlated with the interannual variability of the Eliassen–Palm (E–P) flux divergence anomalies in the northern extratropical stratosphere; that is, higher (lower) occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 corresponds to weaker (stronger) upward wave fluxes and increased (decreased) E–P flux divergence anomalies in the middle and upper stratosphere at mid-to-high latitudes, which implies depressed (enhanced) wave activity accompanied by a stronger (weaker) polar vortex in that region. The convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent related to MJO phase 4 excite a Rossby wave train that propagates poleward to middle and high latitudes, and is in antiphase with the climatological stationary waves of wavenumber 1 at middle and high latitudes. As the spatial distribution of the convection anomalies during MJO phase 7 has an almost opposite, but weaker, pattern to that during MJO phase 4, the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 7 has an opposite and weaker effect on the northern extratropical stratosphere to MJO phase 4. However, the other MJO phases (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8) cannot significantly influence the northern extratropical stratosphere because the wave responses in these phases are neither totally in nor out of phase with the background stationary wavenumber 1.

The Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on High-Latitude Winter Blocking during El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events

Wintertime high-latitude blocking is associated with persistent changes in temperature and precipitation over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Studies have shown that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the primary form of intraseasonal tropical variability, significantly modulates the frequency of high-latitude blocking through large-scale Rossby waves that alter the global circulation. However, the characteristics of MJO teleconnections are altered by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modifies the global flow on interannual time scales, suggesting that the MJO influence on blocking may depend on the ENSO phase. The characteristics of MJO Rossby waves and blocking during ENSO events are examined using composite analysis and a nonlinear baroclinic model. The ENSO phase-dependent teleconnection patterns are found to significantly impact Pacific and Atlantic high-latitude blocking. During El Niño, a significant persistent increase in Pacific and Atlantic blocking follows the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 7, characterized by anomalous enhanced tropical convection over the East Indian Ocean and suppressed west Pacific convection. The maximum Atlantic blocking increase is triple the climatological winter mean. Results suggest that the MJO provides the initial dipole anomaly associated with the Atlantic blocking increase, and transient eddy activity aids in its persistence. However, during La Niña significant blocking anomalies are primarily observed during the first half of an MJO event. Significant suppression of Pacific and Atlantic blocking follows RMM phase 3, when east Indian Ocean MJO convection is suppressed and west Pacific convection is enhanced. The physical basis for these results is explained.

Multi-scale interactions of equatorial waves associated with tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific

The tropical cyclone (TC)-centric approach developed in previous studies tends to overemphasize the direct impact of tropical waves and underestimates their large-scale modulation of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclogenesis (TCG). To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a new approach based on empirical orthogonal function analyses to re-examine associations of multiple waves, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), convective equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, and synoptic scale waves (SSWs), with WNP TCG events. There is a close association between WNP TCG events (total of 273 TCs in this study) and SSWs (~ 64%), MJO (~ 68%), QBWO (~ 64%) and ER (~ 65%) waves. These suggest that SSW is critical for many TCG events, and all of these intra-seasonal waves significantly modulate TCG events. A majority of TCs (~ 79%) were found to be related to more than one wave type, indicating an important role for a combination of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with multiple waves in TCG events. Further analyses show that SSW activity is strongly modulated by the MJO and ER waves, while the QBWO has no significant impact on SSWs. During convectively active MJO and ER phases, stronger SSW trains with more distinct southeast-northwestward aligned structures can be found compared to convectively inactive phases. Similar intra-seasonal modulation of the transition from the mixed Rossby-gravity waves from the equatorial central Pacific to the SSW trains over the WNP by the three waves is noted, with such transitions largely favored during convectively active MJO and ER phases.

The study of MJO impact on wave height and wind speed in Indonesian Seas

Indonesia is passed by an atmospheric phenomenon, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has an impact on the wave height in the Indonesian Seas. The significant wave height is simulated using WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) numerical model in Indonesian region (90 °E-150 °E, 20 °N-20 °S) forced by surface winds from Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP), Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). This simulation is concentrated on MJO phase 3, 4, and 5 which passed through Indonesia and its adjacent waters that occurred in particular time between 1990-2015. In this study, the impact of MJO was analyzed during every monsoon season. In addition, wind speed analysis was carried out to further enrich the analysis of the MJO impact. The simulation result shows that MJO exerts the highest impact during phase 5 and DJF, which contributes to the increase of wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in Indonesian inner seas by 6 m/s and 30 cm, respectively, and in southern Lesser Sunda Island by 8 m/s and 1.2 m, respectively. MJO can also contribute to decreasing of the WS and SWH, when it occurred during DJF and MAM phase 3, and JJA phase 4. There is no noticabe change of WS and SWH during SON.

The Effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on the Mesospheric Migrating Diurnal Tide: A Study Using SD‐WACCM

AbstractThe response of the mesospheric migrating diurnal (DW1) tide to the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is investigated for the first time using a simulation from the Specified‐Dynamic Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM), which is driven by reanalysis data. Analysis shows that a significant connection exists between the MJO and the mesospheric DW1 tidal amplitude. During MJO phases 2 and 3, the convection anomalies are associated with enhancement in both the solar insolation absorption and latent heat release in the equatorial troposphere; these in turn lead to stronger DW1 forcing. Conversely, the forcing of DW1 by solar and latent heating in the troposphere is weaker during MJO phase 8. The difference of the tidal amplitude during the opposite MJO phases from the boreal winter mean state is ~15–20%. The parameterized gravity wave variations are found to have a significant impact on the DW1 tidal response in some phases of the MJO.

MJO Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides a major source of tropical and extratropical predictability on a subseasonal time scale. This study conducts a quantitative evaluation of the MJO prediction skill in state-of-the-art operational models, participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. The relationship of MJO prediction skill with model biases in the mean moisture fields and in the longwave cloud–radiation feedbacks is also investigated. The S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill out to a range of 12 to 36 days. The MJO prediction skills in the S2S models are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, with the latter becoming more important at longer forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, MJO events with stronger initial MJO amplitude are typically better predicted. It is found that the sensitivity to the initial MJO phase varies notably from model to model. In most models, a notable dry bias develops within a few days of forecast lead time in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent. The dry bias weakens the horizontal moisture gradient over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, likely dampening the organization and propagation of the MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud–radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelope. The models with smaller bias in the mean horizontal moisture gradient and the longwave cloud–radiation feedbacks show higher MJO prediction skills, suggesting that improving those biases would enhance MJO prediction skill of the operational models.

Time-Lagged Response of the Antarctic and High-Latitude Atmosphere to Tropical MJO Convection

Intraseasonal tropical variability has important implications for the mid- and high-latitude atmosphere, and in recent studies has been shown to modulate a number of weather processes in the Northern Hemisphere, such as snow depth, sea ice concentration, precipitation, atmospheric rivers, and air temperature. In such studies, the extratropical atmosphere has tended to respond to the tropical convection of the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), with a time lag of approximately 7 days. However, the time lag between the MJO and the Antarctic atmosphere has been found to vary between less than 7 and greater than 20 days. This study builds on previous work by further examining the time-lagged response of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation to tropical MJO forcing, with specific focus on the latitude belt associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, during the months of June (austral winter) and December (austral summer) using NCEP–DOE Reanalysis 2 data for the years 1979–2016. Principal findings indicate that the time lag with the strongest height anomalies depends on both the location of the MJO convection (e.g., the MJO phase) and the season, and that the lagged height anomalies in the Antarctic atmosphere are fairly consistent across different vertical levels and latitudinal bands. In addition, certain MJO phases in December displayed lagged height anomalies indicative of blocking-type atmospheric patterns, with an approximate wavenumber of 4, whereas in June most phases were associated with more progressive height anomaly centers resembling a wavenumber-3-type pattern.

The lagged connection of the positive NAO with the MJO phase 3 in a simplified atmospheric model

Based on a simplified nonlinear model and reanalysis data, the lagged connection of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winters is investigated. The positive NAO is observed to occur more frequently about 8–20 days after the onset of the MJO phase 3. A series of heating forcing experiments and initial-value experiments are conducted by utilizing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) dynamical core atmospheric model. The extratropical responses to the tropical heating associated with the MJO phase 3 are characterized by a wave train over the Pacific–North American region with an anticyclone anomaly over the northeastern Pacific and then followed by a positive-NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic sector. These circulation anomalies generally match the observed lagged-connection well. At the earlier stage, the Rossby wave train excited by the MJO convection propagates into the North Atlantic, leading to a planetary wave anomaly with a low-over-high dipole prior to the positive NAO. At the later stage, the anomalous synoptic eddy vorticity forcing (EVF) streamfunction tendency has a negative-over-positive dipole, which plays a key role in the development of the positive NAO. Further analysis of the initial-value experiments indicates that, for the subsequent formation of the positive NAO, the anomalous circulation over the Indian Ocean aroused by the MJO phase 3 is more crucial than that over the northeastern Pacific.

Short-Term Solar Modulation of the Madden–Julian Climate Oscillation

Abstract Normalized occurrence rates of daily Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events are calculated as a function of phase lag relative to peaks and minima in solar ultraviolet flux occurring on the solar rotational time scale (~27 days). All MJO phases and four solar maximum periods are considered (1979–83, 1989–93, 1999–2003, and 2011–15). Corresponding daily static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere (70–100 hPa) are calculated from ERA-Interim data and are averaged over the warm pool region. The statistical significance of occurrence-rate changes following UV peaks and minima is assessed using a Monte Carlo method. When MJO events with amplitudes greater than about 2 are considered during the December–May period (about 15% of those days), significant reductions of MJO occurrence rates and associated increases in static stability in the tropical lower stratosphere are obtained 1–7 days following solar UV peaks. Consistently, cross-correlation analyses of high-pass-filtered daily MJO amplitudes and solar UV flux during the same seasonal period produce significant negative correlations near and following solar UV peaks. Conversely, mean occurrence rates are increased and lower-stratospheric static stabilities are decreased following solar UV minima. The reductions (increases) in occurrence rate following solar UV peaks (minima) are largest when the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation is in its easterly phase. Little or no dependence of the solar modulation on the phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation is obtained.