Madden–Julian Oscillation Phases Research Articles

The links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and European weather regimes

Skillful weather forecasting on sub-seasonal timescales is important to enable users to make cost-effective decisions. Forecast skill can be expected to be mediated by the prediction of atmospheric flow patterns, often known as weather regimes, over the relevant region. Here, we show how the Grosswetterlagen (GWL), a set of 29 European weather regimes, can be modulated by the extra-tropical teleconnection from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Together, these GWL regimes represent the large-scale flow characteristics observed in the four North Atlantic-European classical weather regimes (NAE-CWRs), while individually capturing synoptic scale flow details. By matching each GWL regime to the nearest NAE-CWR, we reveal GWL regimes which occur during the transition stages between the NAE-CWRs and show the importance of capturing the added synoptic detail of GWL regimes when determining their teleconnection pattern from the MJO. The occurrence probabilities of certain GWL regimes are significantly changed 10–15 days after certain MJO phases, exhibiting teleconnection patterns similar to their NAE-CWR matches but often with larger occurrence anomalies, over fewer consecutive MJO phases. These changes in occurrence probabilities are likely related to MJO-induced changes in the persistence and transition probabilities. Other GWL regimes are not significantly influenced by the MJO. These findings demonstrate how the MJO can modify the preferred evolution of the NAE atmospheric flow, which is important for sub-seasonal weather forecasting.

Preliminary Evidence of Madden‐Julian Oscillation Effects on Ultrafast Tropical Waves in the Thermosphere

AbstractOver the past two decades mounting evidence demonstrated that terrestrial weather significantly influences the dynamics and mean state of the thermosphere. While important progress has been made in understanding how this coupling occurs on hourly to daily time scales, large uncertainty still exists on this effect around intraseasonal (∼30–90 days) time scales. In this work, analyses of Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics‐Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry temperatures near 110 km and Gravity field and steady‐state Ocean Circulation Explorer cross‐track winds near 260 km reveal prominent intraseasonal oscillations in the equatorial (±15°) zonal mean lower and middle thermosphere. Similar intraseasonal oscillations are found in the amplitudes of the diurnal eastward propagating tide with Zonal Wavenumber 3 (DE3) and the quasi‐3‐day ultrafast Kelvin wave, two prominent ultrafast tropical waves (UFTWs) excited by deep tropical tropospheric convection. Numerical simulations from the Specified‐Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended demonstrate a significant connection between these UFTW and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). Compared to the boreal winter mean state, thermospheric UFTW amplitudes are larger (+5 to +12%) during MJO Phases 2–3 and smaller (−3% to −12%) during MJO Phases 6–8. Significant variations are also found with respect to the phase of the mesospheric semiannual oscillation (MSAO) and stratospheric quasi‐biannual oscillation (SQBO), with larger (±12–16%) thermospheric amplitudes during westward MSAO/SQBO phase and smaller (±3–6%) amplitudes during eastward MSAO/SQBO phase, in accordance with theoretical interpretations. This study suggests that UFTW may play a large role in coupling tropospheric intraseasonal variability to the thermosphere, raising important questions including implications for the whole atmosphere system.

MJO Prediction Skill Using IITM Extended Range Prediction System and Comparison with ECMWF S2S

Eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant mode of the intraseasonal variability and hence a potential source of intraseasonal predictability. Therefore, advancing MJO prediction using state-of-the-art dynamical model is of utmost importance for improving intraseasonal prediction. The prediction skill and predictability of MJO are assessed using 44 members ensemble hindcast (16 years data; 2001–2016) of CFSv2 based extended range prediction (ERP) system of IITM as well as 10 member ensemble hindcast (16 years data; 2001–2016) of ECMWF S2S dataset. The MJO is diagnosed using a newly developed Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analysis. Near equatorial (15° S–15° N) model anomaly fields are projected onto the leading pair of observed eigen modes. The leading pair of observed eigen modes are obtained based on the EEOF analysis of the combined field of zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200), zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850) and velocity potential at 200 hPa (chi200). Model forecasted principal components (PCs) are quantitatively compared with observed PCs using bivariate correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE). We find that MJO could be predicted up to around 22 days (around 31 days) for IITM ERP system (ECMWF S2S dataset) as measured by anomaly correlation coefficient remains larger than 0.5 and RMSE remains lower than 1.4. This prediction skill is quite low compared to potential predictability, which is estimated as more than 40 days both for IITM-ERP and ECMWF system. MJO prediction skill varies with initial MJO phase, particularly at the longer lead. This variation is more significant for the ECMWF system. Model (both for IITM-ERP and ECMWF) predicted amplitude drops at a faster rate and phase propagation speed for almost all initial phase is slower and amplitude is weaker compared to the observation. It could be concluded that even the state-of-the-art models [IITM-ERP (basically NCEP CFSv2) and ECMWF] are also not free from systematic errors/biases. Hence, there is an enormous space for improving MJO prediction skill by reducing these errors/biases in the dynamical model and error in the initial condition.

Subseasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence and ACE in the S2S Dataset

Abstract Probabilistic tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence, at lead times of week 1–4, in the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) dataset are examined here. Forecasts are defined over 15° in latitude × 20° in longitude regions, and the prediction skill is measured using the Brier skill score with reference to climatological reference forecasts. Two types of reference forecasts are used: a seasonally constant one and a seasonally varying one, with the latter used for forecasts of anomalies from the seasonal climatology. Models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Météo-France/Centre National de Recherche Météorologiques have skill in predicting TC occurrence four weeks in advance. In contrast, only the ECMWF model is skillful in predicting the anomaly of TC occurrence beyond one week. Errors in genesis prediction largely limit models’ skill in predicting TC occurrence. Three calibration techniques, removing the mean genesis and occurrence forecast biases, and a linear regression method, are explored here. The linear regression method performs the best and guarantees a higher skill score when applied to the in-sample dataset. However, when applied to the out-of-sample data, especially in areas where the TC sample size is small, it may reduce the models’ prediction skill. Generally speaking, the S2S models are more skillful in predicting TC occurrence during favorable Madden–Julian oscillation phases. Last, we also report accumulated cyclone energy predictions skill using the ranked probability skill score.

The Effect of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the North Atlantic Oscillation Using Idealized Numerical Experiments

AbstractThe aim of the paper is to investigate the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using a quasigeostrophic model on the sphere. A simplified forcing based on potential vorticity anomalies in the tropics is used to mimic the MJO. The idealized nature of our setup allows us to determine the distinct roles played by stationary and synoptic waves. This is done by means of several series of almost 10 000 short runs of 30 days. Ensemble averages and a streamfunction budget analysis are used to study the modifications of the flow induced by the MJO. We find that a stationary Rossby wave is excited in the tropics during MJO phase 3. The western part of the Pacific jet is displaced poleward, which modifies the transient eddy activity in that basin. These changes create a ridge south of Alaska, which favors equatorward propagation of synoptic waves and larger poleward eddy momentum fluxes from the eastern Pacific toward the Atlantic, increasing the frequency of occurrence of the positive NAO events. The situation is essentially reversed following phase 6 of the MJO and conducive to the negative phase of the NAO. For a realistic MJO forcing amplitude, we find increases in both NAO phases to be around 30%, in reasonable agreement with the observations given the model simplicity. Finally, we present a series of experiments to assess the relative importance of linear versus nonlinear effects.

The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales

AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the MJO an important predictability source on subseasonal to seasonal time scales (S2S). Previous research demonstrates a strong similarity of teleconnection patterns across MJO events for certain MJO phases (i.e., pattern consistency) and increased model ensemble agreement during these phases that is beneficial for extended numerical weather forecasts. However, the MJO’s ability to modulate extratropical weather varies greatly on interannual time scales, which brings extra uncertainty in leveraging the MJO for S2S prediction. Few studies have investigated the mechanisms responsible for variations in the consistency of MJO tropical–extratropical teleconnections on interannual time scales. This study uses reanalysis data, ensemble simulations of a linear baroclinic model, and a Rossby wave ray tracing algorithm to demonstrate that two mechanisms largely determine the interannual variability of MJO teleconnection consistency. First, the meridional shift of stationary Rossby wave ray paths indicates increases (decreases) in the MJO’s extratropical modulation during La Niña (El Niño) years. Second, a previous study proposed that the constructive interference of Rossby wave signals caused by a dipole Rossby wave source pattern across the subtropical jet during certain MJO phases produces a consistent MJO teleconnection. However, this dipole feature is less clear in both El Niño and La Niña years due to the extension and contraction of MJO convection, respectively, which would decrease the MJO’s influence in the extratropics. Hence, considering the joint influence of the basic state and MJO forcing, this study suggests a diminished potential to leverage the MJO for S2S prediction in El Niño years.

The influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation on high-latitude surface air temperature during boreal winter

By analyzing NCEP-NCAR reanalysis daily data for 1979–2016, the modulation by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over high latitude is examined. The real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which divides the MJO into eight phases, is used. It is found that a significantly negative SAT anomaly over the northern high latitude region of (180°–60 °W, 60°–90 °N) lags the MJO convection for 1∼2 weeks in phase 3, in which the enhanced convective activity exists over the Indian Ocean. While a significantly positive SAT anomaly appears over the same region following the MJO phase 7, as the tropical heating shows an opposite sign. Analysis of the anomalous circulation indicates that the observed SAT signal is probably a result of the northeastward propagating Rossby wave train triggered by MJO-related tropical forcing through Rossby wave energy dispersion. By using an anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the significant effect of tropical forcing on organizing the extratropical circulation anomaly is confirmed. Analysis of a temperature tendency equation further reveals that the intraseasonal SAT anomaly is primarily attributed to the advection of the mean temperature by the wind anomaly associated with the anomalous circulation of the MJO-related variability.

Assessing the skill of all-season diverse Madden–Julian oscillation indices for the intraseasonal Amazon precipitation

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) impact on the Amazon intraseasonal precipitation assessed by different MJO indices is investigated through an analysis of composite events and observed case studies. The MJO indices diagnosing skill is described in detail using reanalysis, satellite, and gauge-based gridded rainfall data. Three types of existing MJO indices are considered: (1) OLR-based MJO (OMI index); (2) dynamically- or circulation-based MJO (VPM index); and (3) combined convectively- and dynamically-based MJO (Wheeler–Hendon RMM index). Our results suggest that, in the large-scale (i.e., around the global tropics), even in the regional domain, the MJO OLR-only index well-represent the dynamical and convective features associated with the intraseasonal variability. On the other hand, each index gives diverging results on rainfall characterization over the Amazon Basin (AB). For instance, the cumulative distribution of precipitation for each MJO phase and index depicts considerable differences in the main climatic regions of the AB, indicating a diverging intraseasonal representation for extreme rainfall values. In addition, when event-by-event is assessed, details as well as the identification of events themselves can differ among indices. This characteristic is particularly observed during extreme rainfall events in the AB. A significant percentage of MJO activity is detected only by the MJO OLR-based index. Because the large-scale zonal circulation dominates the dynamically-based indices (RMM and VPM), the MJO impact in these indices is not an appropriate measure of convective MJO activity. Since the convective component of the MJO is our primary objective, the results presented in this study show that the OLR-based MJO index is able to better account for the MJO impacts over the AB. The indices considered in this study are often used for monitoring and forecasting the MJO activity over South America. However, given the dissimilarity of the representation of precipitation in the AB, our findings also support the consideration of a regional index for monitoring and forecasting the MJO impacts.

Relationship between extreme rainfall based on GSMaP data with Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in Bangka Island

The effect of MJO events on extreme rainfall events on Bangka Island needs to be spatially studied in more detail. The low quality of rain station data encourages the use of alternative data such as Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). This study aimed to analyze the influence of active MJO on extreme rainfall events using GSMaP data on Bangka Island. The methods used are extreme threshold of 95th, 98th and 99th percentile, the Spearman Rank correlation between extreme rainfall events and active MJO and its correlation significance test. The results showed that northern coast has the highest range of extreme threshold. The correlation significance test showed GSMaP grids that have a significant correlation with the MJO are in the north of the Island, especially coast area. MJO phases 3 and 5 have an impact on decreasing of extreme rainfall events which are known through the negative correlation values. From all the three extreme thresholds, it was only MJO phase 4 that increasing extreme rainfall events. Active MJO phase 4 causes Bangka Island as a convective area, while MJO phases 3 and 5 affect the formation of suppressed areas on Bangka Island.

Impacts of ENSO and Madden–Julian oscillation on the genesis of tropical cyclones simulated by general circulation models and compared to observations

Using the Seoul National University Earth System Model Version 0 (SEM0) and Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1), we analyzed the impacts of El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the genesis of tropical cyclones (TG). SEM0 is known to simulate ENSO, MJO, and TG reasonably well, all of which are difficult to simulate with general circulation models (GCMs). Observational analysis revealed that both ENSO and MJO have substantial impacts on global TG and that the impact of ENSO (MJO) on regional TG varies in a complex manner depending on the phase of MJO (ENSO). Both GCMs underestimate the observed TG over the North Atlantic and have relatively poor performance for simulating the TG anomalies associated with ENSO compared to simulating those associated with MJO. Overall, SEM0 shows much better performance than CESM1 in terms of reproducing the observed impacts of MJO and combined impacts of ENSO and MJO on TG. Therefore, SEM0 can serve as a useful tool for studying the interactions among them to improve the forecasting of tropical cyclones.

Comparison of the Madden–Julian Oscillation-Related Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific under Different El Niño-Southern Oscillation Conditions

This paper explores the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulation of tropical cyclone (TC; hereafter, MJO-TC) genesis over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP) under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Analyses used Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track data, the Real-Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data. The results showed that the MJO has significant modulation on both the SCS and WNP TC genesis in neutral years, with more (fewer) TCs forming during the active (inactive) MJO phases. However, during the El Niño and La Niña years, the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the two regions differs from each other. Over the SCS, the MJO modulation of TC genesis is stronger in the La Niña years, while it becomes weaker in the El Niño years. Over the WNP, the MJO has a stronger influence on TC genesis in the El Niño years compared to that in the La Niña years. Related Genesis Potential Index (GPI) analysis suggests that midlevel moisture is the primary factor and vorticity is the secondary factor, for the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the SCS in the La Niña years. Over the WNP, midlevel moisture is the dominant factor for the MJO-TC genesis modulation during the El Niño years. These results can be explained by increased water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal, associated with enhanced westerly wind anomalies, during the active phases relative to the inactive MJO phases; these conditions prevail over the SCS during the La Niña years, and over the WNP during the El Niño years.

Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Previous studies have revealed the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The MJO phase 2/3 is followed by the positive AO phase, and the MJO phase 6/7 is followed by the negative AO phase. This study reveals that the MJO phase 6/7–AO connection is modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) through both tropospheric and stratospheric pathways during boreal winter. The MJO 2/3 phase and AO relationship is favored in both QBO easterly (QBOE) and westerly (QBOW) years because of the MJO-triggered tropospheric Rossby wave train from the tropics toward the polar region. The AO following the MJO 6/7 phase shifts to negative in QBOW years, but the MJO–AO connection diminishes in QBOE years. In QBOW years, the Asian-Pacific jet is enhanced, leading to more evident poleward propagation of tropospheric Rossby wave train, which contributes to the tropospheric pathway of the AO–MJO 6/7 connection. Besides, the enhanced Asian-Pacific jet in QBOW years is favorable for vertical propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere in MJO phase 6/7, leading to negative AO, which indicates the stratospheric pathway of the AO–MJO 6/7 connection.

High-Frequency Variations in Pearl River Plume Observed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Sea Surface Salinity

River plumes play an important role in the cross-margin transport of phytoplankton and nutrients, which have profound impacts on coastal ecosystems. Using recently available Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sea surface salinity (SSS) data and high-resolution ocean color products, this study investigated summertime high-frequency variations in the Pearl River plume of China and its biological response. The SMAP SSS captures the intraseasonal oscillations in the offshore transport of the Pearl River plume well, which has distinct 30–60 day variations from mid-May to late September. The offshore transport of freshwater varies concurrently with southwesterly wind anomalies and is roughly in phase with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) index in phases 1–5, thus implying that the MJO exerts a significant influence. During MJO phases 1–2, the southwest wind anomalies in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS) enhanced cross-shore Ekman transport, while the northeast wind anomalies during MJO phases 3–5 favored the subsequent southwestward transport of the plume. The high chlorophyll-a concentration coincided well with the low-salinity water variations, emphasizing the important role of the offshore transport of the Pearl River plume in sustaining biological production over the oligotrophic northern SCS. The strong offshore transport of the plume in June 2015 clearly revealed that the proximity of a cyclonic eddy plays a role in the plume’s dispersal pathway. In addition, heavy rainfall related to the landfall of tropical cyclones in the Pearl River Estuary region contributed to the episodic offshore transport of the plume.

A Reliability Budget Analysis of CESM‐DART

AbstractA reliability budget is used to diagnose potential sources of error (departure from observations) in a new prototype coupled ocean‐atmosphere ensemble Kalman filter reanalysis product, the Community Earth System Model using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (CESM‐DART). In areas with sufficient observations, the mean bias in zonal wind was generally very low compared to the spread due to ensemble variance, which did not exhibit patterns associated with Northern Hemisphere jet streams but did have regional enhancement over the Maritime Continent. However, the residual term was often the largest contributor to the budget, which is problematic, suggesting improper observational error statistics and inadequately represented ensemble variance statistics. The departure and residual exhibit significant seasonal variability, with a strong peak in boreal winter months, indicating the model's deficiencies during the energetic Northern Hemisphere winter. Ocean temperature contained large error in areas with eddy production indicating inadequate ensemble variance due to poor model resolution. Periods when the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) was active exhibited lower error, especially in the western equatorial Pacific during MJO phases with reduced convection. In contrast, during MJO phases with enhanced convection in that region, the ensemble variance is increased yet the error is comparable to non‐MJO conditions, suggesting a controlling effect of the precipitation parameterization. Further studies evaluating the impact of the coupled assimilation procedure on the reliability budget will be illuminating.

The MJO’s impact on rainfall trends over the Congo rainforest

A significant declining trend in rainfall over the Congo basin has been observed over the past three decades. Since the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major forcing mechanism for tropical convection and rainfall, the interannual variability and trend in rainfall over the Congo may be partly attributable to variability or changes in the MJO. This study explores the long-term (1979–2018) relationship between the active MJO diagnosed by the real-time multivariate (RMM) MJO phase index data and observed rainfall and cloud data over the Congo during October–March. Since the MJO may significantly enhance rainfall during the wet phases or suppress rainfall during the dry phases, the crux of this paper includes how trends in MJO activity may impact the overall observed precipitation trend over the Congo. The relationship between MJO activity and rainfall over the Congo was documented using statistical techniques and composite analysis. A new, yet simple approach was developed to partition seasonal rainfall depending on the MJO phase (i.e., wet, dry, inactive, and other). Results show a significant correlation between the number of wet and dry MJO days, and rainfall enhancement and suppression over the Congo. While there exists considerable interannual variability in MJO activity and rainfall over the Congo, there is a significant increase in the number of dry MJO days (3.47 days decade−1) which tends to intensify the large-scale drying trend over the Congo during October–March. The increasing trend in the number of dry MJO days is likely enhancing the net drying trend by 13.6% over the Congo.

Modulation of the QBO on the MJO-related surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia during boreal winter

Previous studies have indicated the modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the influence of the MJO on surface temperature over Eurasia during boreal winter. The present study reveals that the MJO-related circulation anomalies are different in easterly and westerly QBO years, leading to distinct surface temperature anomaly patterns over Eurasia. During the easterly QBO years, the surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia display a meridional dipole pattern in MJO phase 2 associated with the mid-latitude surface anticyclonic anomalies. The development of surface anomalous anticyclone is attributed to a combined effect of negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-related mid-latitude wave train and stronger MJO convection triggered poleward propagation of Rossby wave train. The negative NAO is related to the easterly QBO through the Holton–Tan relationship. The anomalous overturning circulation excited by the stronger MJO convection in easterly QBO years also contributes to the development and eastward extension of anomalous anticyclone. The anticyclonic anomalies induce the meridional temperature anomaly pattern by horizontal advection. During the westerly QBO years, the surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia show a zonal alternating pattern in MJO phase 3, which corresponds to the development of mid-latitude Rossby wave train associated with positive NAO with a stronger MJO–NAO connection in westerly QBO years. The MJO convection induces upper-level divergent wind anomalies, contributing partially to the development of the Rossby wave source and helping the building of the mid-latitude wave train. The zonal temperature anomalies over Eurasia are also contributed by the horizontal advection associated with surface cyclonic anomalies.

Reexamination of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Effect on Wintertime Sea Ice Concentrations in the North Pacific

In the Pacific sector of the Arctic, a noticeable dipole pattern of the sea ice concentration (SIC) between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea has been reported on timescales of weeks to months. The dipole pattern owes its existence to the large-scale circulation variability across the North Pacific. Meanwhile, it is well known that eastward propagating tropical convection on an intraseasonal timescale, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), forms large-scale circulation anomalies in the North Pacific through the poleward-propagating Rossby waves that are stimulated by MJO-related tropical convection, which is often manifested as a Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern. Few studies, however, have focused on the lagged MJO influence on the SIC change in the high-latitude North Pacific by poleward-propagating waves. Thus, herein, we investigated the intraseasonal SIC variations associated with the MJO phases by considering the lagged circulation response. The dipole pattern in the composite daily SIC change map between the two seas becomes apparent after approximately one week of MJO phases 3 and 7. In the Bering Sea (the Sea of Okhotsk), the SIC increases after MJO phase 3 (phase 7), while it decreases in phase 7 (phase 3). The lagged anomalous circulation pattern in the North Pacific associated with the MJO leads to SIC changes primarily through the dynamic response in 10 m winds and the resultant sea ice motion.

Influence of Subseasonal Variability on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation on a Mountainous Island: The Case of New Caledonia

Abstract The relationship between the large-scale intraseasonal variability, synoptic wind regimes, and the local daily variability of precipitation over the main island of New Caledonia (southwest tropical Pacific) is investigated with a focus on the austral summer wet season (November–April). The average diurnal cycle of precipitation over the island is characterized by a sharp afternoon maximum around 1600 local time, with significant differences between the windward east coast, the leeward west coast, and the mountain range. The afternoon peak is related to the afternoon sea-breeze circulation and to the diurnal cycle of convection over land. In general, its magnitude follows the same evolution as the daily mean. In agreement with past studies, a clear modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on both the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the probability of occurrence of four robust wind regimes can be identified in the New Caledonia region during the wet season. From the evidence that there is a qualitative correspondence between the effects of both the MJO phases and the wind regimes on features in the diurnal cycle of precipitation, a simple model is proposed to inspect the MJO forcing mediated by wind regimes on the diurnal variability of rain. The complete decomposition of the MJO impact shows that the modulation of diurnal cycle by the MJO relies on complex interactions between the MJO and synoptic winds that involve both large-scale MJO convective anomalies and MJO-induced modification of wind patterns.

Wintertime precipitation in eastern China and relation to the Madden-Julian oscillation: Spatiotemporal properties, impacts and causes

This study investigated the characteristics of wintertime precipitation in eastern China and associated atmospheric circulation based on different Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activities. Besides, the underlying causes and impacts of MJO activities on wintertime precipitation in eastern China were explored as well by analyzing large scale atmospheric circulations conditions. The results indicated that: (1) in different MJO phases, distinct differences can be observed in spatial patterns of wintertime precipitation in eastern China, especially in southeastern China. (2) Significant enhanced precipitation can be detected over southeastern China during active MJO events, while precipitation reduced significantly over these regions during inactive MJO events. Enhancement of precipitation during active MJO events was mainly attributed to the increased precipitation on phases 2–4; (3) the impacts of MJO phases on precipitation can be explained by the northeastward propagation of atmospheric pressure pattern over eastern China during active MJO events. This study may provide theoretical knowledge for water resources management and early warning of floods and droughts in eastern China. The potential teleconnections of near-equatorial MJO activities to the subtropics or extratropics precipitation over eastern China were also discussed in this study.

Stratospheric Influences on the MJO-Induced Rossby Wave Train: Effects on Intraseasonal Climate

AbstractThe tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites a northward propagating Rossby wave train that largely determines the extratropical surface weather consequences of the MJO. Previous work has demonstrated a significant influence of the tropospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the characteristics of this wave train. Here, composite analyses of ERA-Interim sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during the extended northern winter season are performed to investigate the additional role of stratospheric forcings [the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-yr solar cycle] in modifying the wave train and its consequences. MJO phase composites of 20–100-day filtered data for the two QBO phases show that, similar to the cool phase of ENSO, the easterly phase of the QBO (QBOE) produces a stronger wave train and associated modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. In particular, during MJO phases 5–7, positive SLP and negative SAT anomalies in the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector are enhanced during QBOE relative to the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW). The opposite occurs during the earliest MJO phases. SAT anomalies over eastern North America are also more strongly modulated during QBOE. Although less certain because of the short data record, there is some evidence that the minimum phase of the solar cycle (SMIN) produces a similar increased modulation of SLP and SAT anomalies. The strongest modulations of SLP and SAT anomalies are produced when two or more of the forcings are superposed (e.g., QBOE/cool ENSO, SMIN/QBOE, etc.).