Macroeconomic Processes Research Articles

Global Financial Economy Crisis

The Global world economy crisis had its roots in the Covid 19 pandemic. The key factors back then were a combination of the macroeconomic processes and initialization in micro economic financial levels. Global trade began to recover from the negative impacts brought by the COVID- 19 pandemic in June 2020. As it was obvious for the world’s financial economic institutions, the expectations after the pandemics were to overcome the economic crises and start the growth of the world trade markets. Instead of that in 2022 the Russian aggression on Ukraine has made the financial crisis even worse and bended the world on the knees. The world now lacks on gas, oil, grain and the most important electrical energy. Both Russia and Ukraine were and still are the global source raw material markets, especially for energy, food and fertilizers, but since the war has no looks on ending, the severe restrictions that are up for the world’s population may bring the worst still not expected rise of the financial crisis

Analysis of the milk market in Russia

The article is devoted to the issues of analysis, evaluation and modeling of factors influencing the formation and development of indicators characterizing the state of the milk market in Russia. The results of a study of the volumes of production and consumption of milk, both in the country as a whole and per capita, are presented. Proposed methodological approaches and models for assessing the impact of factors on the volume of production and consumption of milk per capita. The results obtained can be used to study macroeconomic processes in order to develop and adjust the socio-economic policy, the strategy of economic and food security of economic entities of various levels, as well as the rationale for management decisions.

КРЕДИТНА ПОВЕДІНКА ДОМОГОСПОДАРСТВ: СУТНІСТЬ, ОЗНАКИ ТА ФАКТОРИ, ЩО ВПЛИВАЮТЬ НА ЇЇ ФОРМУВАННЯ

The credit behavior of households is the result of the decisions made by these economic entities by using or not the borrowed funds offered by credit institutions in the financial services market. As shown by experience, it is extremely important to understand possible scenarios for changing this behavior in the future considering the development of credit institutions, the credit services market as a whole and, accordingly, the national economy. The defined actualizes the issue of a fairly detailed study of theoretical provisions of the formation and transformation of the credit behavior, features of its formation in various conditions of economic reality, ability of transformation of its models to influence complex macro-financial and macro-economic processes in society. The purpose of the article is to deepen theoretical provisions of the formation and transformation of the credit behavior of households, clarify the essence of this category, its types, and specify the factors influencing its formation. The essence justification of the credit behavior of households is carried out through the identification and analysis of modern scientific approaches to the consideration of this category. This made it possible to determine the authors’ position regarding the interpretation of this definition. Also in the article, based on a detailed consideration of the essence of the proposed definition, the content features of the credit behavior of households as an economic category were identified, among which the following are defined: subjectivity, interaction, poly-variance, multi-vector determination, macro-system character, market essence. It is established that the difficulty of knowing the credit behavior of households as an object of research lies in the presence of different groups of these business entities, different types of credit products that are offered to them, and a significant number of credit institutions operating in the financial services market. In the article, considerable attention is paid to the specification of possible types of the credit behavior of households, and the basic factors that affect its formation and change are considered.

РЕГУЛЯТОРНИЙ ПОТЕНЦІАЛ ФІСКАЛЬНОЇ СИСТЕМИ УКРАЇНИ: ЗМІСТ ТА ОСОБЛИВОСТІ РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ В УМОВАХ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ

The urgency of the topic is due to the need to study the mechanism of the regulatory function of taxes through which the state actively influences the macroeconomic processes in conditions of economic instability. In conditions of economic ups and downs, the fiscal system, as a basic element of the economy, on the one hand, provides the financial foundation of the state, and on the other hand - is one of the main tools for tax policy and government intervention in the economic system. Taxes are an integral part of the fiscal system; they are an objectively existing institution of society, and one of the factors influencing social and economic development, which requires a study of its mission and content. The peculiarities of the regulatory function of taxes in the conditions of endogenous and exogenous factors of instability are revealed. It is shown that integration into the external uncertain financial space causes a number of non-standard problems for the national system of state regulation of the economy, in particular, the problem of choosing between the policy of nominal devaluation and the policy of fiscal devaluation. The article analyzes the quantitative criteria of tax policy and their impact on the effectiveness of the regulatory function of data in Ukraine during 2014-2022. Based on the analysis the conclusion is made about the predominantly fiscal focus of regulatory measures of modern state tax policy. To assess the limitations of the regulatory and instrumental role of taxes in performing the exclusive functions of the state in the economy and society, we described the institutional limitations of the regulatory function of taxes due to their connection with the institutional structure of the economy through the channels of economic sovereignty and legitimacy, trust and state debt. The content of institutional traps related to the deficit of tax revenues to the state budget is revealed, and it is shown that the tendency to avoid these traps is an institutional feature that limits the effect of tax instruments of state regulation of economic processes. Some ways of tax reform in Ukraine are given.

ЕВОЛЮЦІЯ КАТЕГОРІЇ РИНКУ ПРАЦІ В ЕКОНОМІЧНІЙ ДУМЦІ

In the history of economic studies, there were various concepts, theories and schools, the basis of which evolution was based on differences in the methodology and methods of analysis, in the knowledge of the subject and the object of research, the role of the nature of work and the functioning mechanism of the labor market. A significant contribution was made by the founders of classical political economy to the understanding of the labor market functioning mechanism, who for the first time began to consider the category of "labor market" at the scientific level. The definition of the labor market, given by K. Marx, was taken as a basis many years ago when researching the labor force category and was defined as the most complete and correct, and it remains so today. The theoretical postulates of K. Marx's theory still remain the basis of the modern views of the majority of scientists regarding the essence of work and the labor market. A significant contribution to the definition of the labor market functioning mechanism was made by J. M. Keynes and his school, who developed their own powerful concept of economic regulation, and the Keynesian model of the labor market and employment is based on the need for government intervention in the management of macroeconomic processes. Monetarists had opposite positions to Keynesians, denying the need for state intervention in macroeconomic activity due to the fact that the market economy is a self-adjusting system, a price mechanism that determines the rational level of employment, and the use of monetary policy tools is necessary to balance the labor market. The institutional sociological school proposes to solve employment problems through institutional reforms; she brought two modifications to economic thought – the "contract theory of employment" and the "theory of the flexible labor market", which are still relevant today. Among modern domestic researchers, there is still no consensus on the definition of the labor market and its main elements. The main problematic points that cause the most controversy remain the same since classical times, and the ways of overcoming unemployment and leveling its consequences have not yet been found, and the achievement of full employment in the economy is still unattainable, and the measures developed by the analyzed schools of economics remain relevant, therefore it makes sense to carefully analyze them in order to borrow effective mechanisms. Objective – сomprehensive definition of the labor market category in a retrospective section in order to increase its content. General scientific methods were used as research methods: comparison, analysis and synthesis, generalization, analytical, descriptive, typification, grouping.

Social policy of Ukraine in the field of employment under martial law

Introduction. At the current stage of the Ukrainian economy's and sociopolitical state's growth, the society faces a variety of social difficulties, one of which is unemployment. Because Ukraine's current stage of historical development is marked by worldwide transformative changes that influence social well-being, this promotes domestic changes in the processes of social policy implementation. It is important to note that the current situation of the state's economy might be perceived as unstable, as a result of a variety of objective and subjective issues. The labor market and the level of national employment underwent significant deformation during the martial law period, owing to the temporary occupation of settlements and their economic potential, mass internal and external migration of the workforce, and general economic reformation. In response to these circumstances, governmental institutions of social policy are adjusting their methods in order to adapt and execute efficient social protection. Ukraine's State Employment Service is authorized to carry out state social policy in the labor market and employment regulation. As employment management is intricately intertwined with practically all elements of human existence, including society, economy, politics, culture, and spirituality, the subject of successful employment service activity in current settings emerges. In recent years, the sphere of employment regulation has been regularly redesigned in response to internal and external elements of influence, such as the Covid-19 epidemic in earlier years, and at current stage, active military operations and martial law throughout Ukraine's territory. Thus, by evaluating the real difficulties of employment under martial law, the major paths for strengthening social policy in this sector in general, and the activities of the Employment Service of Ukraine as one of its tools, may be formed. The purpose of the article is to identify problematic aspects of social policy in the field of employment of the population in the conditions of martial law and to form potential ways of solving and amortizing them. The methodological basis of this article is the employment theory of John Maynard Keynes, which is based on the assertion of the need for active state intervention in the macroeconomic functioning of the market economy in crisis conditions. The results. It has been proved that under the conditions of martial law in Ukraine, there has been a rise in the overall level of employment as well as an escalation of a number of negative factors impacting the labor market. According to Maynard K.'s theory, demonstrates the necessity for governmental management of macroeconomic processes in the state, particularly during martial law. It is worth mentioning that the state is the de jure guarantee of maintaining effective employment in both peacetime and wartime situations, and that the state cannot properly control the labor market under crisis conditions. We developed theses on the primary approaches of amortization and implementation of these features to improve the level of employment in Ukraine under martial law based on the list of recognized challenges in the sphere of employment.

ПРОБЛЕМАТИКА ОЦІНКИ МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНОГО ВПЛИВУ НА ЙМОВІРНОСТІ КРЕДИТНОГО ДЕФОЛТУ В УМОВАХ ВИСОКОЇ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

The article analyzes the current state of scientific and practical approaches to assessing the probability of credit default of financial instruments. The main scientific and practical issues related to the assessment of PD PIT financial instruments in the conditions of large-scale military aggression by Russia are defined. Specific requirements for the methodology of creating more adequate models for assessing the probability of credit default on the PIT basis, i.e. taking into account the influence of macroeconomic factors on this indicator, were also determined. The research was carried out and the process of creating mathematical models was formalized to determine the probability of credit default in the context of the impact of macroeconomic processes caused by catastrophic, but not shock, changes in the economic system and its subsequent partial recovery due to military events. The authors concluded that there is currently a significant shortage of simulation experience in military settings, which makes it difficult to develop an adequate assessment methodology. The possibility of building a complex family of PITTTC models, which directly relate system-sensitive probabilities to the corresponding PD TTC stress values, was investigated. The possibilities and limitations of the application of the PITTTC family of models to determine the probabilities of credit default in conditions of high uncertainty caused by the war, which is still ongoing, are analyzed. Thus, this work substantiates the need for a complete revision of the methodology for assessing the probability of credit default in conditions of high uncertainty in the risky economic environment caused by military actions. It is also determined that the new methodology should solve the problem not only of the lack of historical data for the validation of relevant models, but also to create new assessment models that should correspond to the current crisis state of the Ukrainian economy. The work suggests specific ways for further research into this problem.

The economic and legal prerequisites for reorganization of economic organizations

Globalization, macroeconomic processes, and a quickly changeable competitive environment require a new level of development of national markets, which become more integrated. This all predetermines a requirement in defense of the interests of economic entities in relation to strengthening their positions on the proper markets through the introduction of different methods and instruments of an economic and legal character, in particular via the application of reorganization procedures. It is justified, that reorganization of economic organizations, as a legally effective form of solving economic and legal tasks for the preservation of the subject of economic activity and strengthening of the position on the proper market, ahead of a number of relevant objective economic (expansion of economic activity by means of application of synergy effect; diversification of production, capital and activity; increase of own capital; acquisition of assets at a price lower than the replacement cost; competitive advantages in creating barriers to eliminating potential competitors entering the market; additional advantages – possession of licenses, patents, know-how of other economic entities, which are at the disposal of another enterprise; loss of production or partial curtailment of activity; change of criteria of the form of doing business) and legal (the relevant requirements in the sphere of antimonopoly and competition legislation, tax legislation, legislation on the procedure and registration of shares issue, legislation on protection of legal rights and interests of creditors, participants (shareholders), employees, etc.) factors (prerequisites). It is proposed to consider the economic and legal prerequisites for reorganization of economic organizations as a complex set of interrelated economic and legal preliminary conditions, the presence of which directs the business entity to choose such an effective legal instrument as a reorganization to strengthen positions on the proper market, to deepen and expand the specialization of production costs, and, as a result, to increase competitiveness of manufactured products, to perform works, to provide services

МАКРОИҚТИСОДИЙ ЖАРАЁНЛАРДА ЭКСПОРТНИ БАҲОЛАШДА ИМПОРТ АМАЛИЁТЛАРИ ВА ЛОГИСТИКА ХИЗМАТЛАРИНИНГ ТАЪСИРИ

This article examines the scientific and theoretical aspects of the role and importance of the practice of imports and logistics services in assessing the volume of exports in the country's macroeconomic processes. Also, urgent problems related to improving the increase in the volume of exports in the national economy were identified, and scientific proposals were developed aimed at solving them. On the basis of statistical data, econometric models were developed. The study presents the author's approaches and proposals.

Analysis and assessment of risks in production activities of enterprises of the agricultural complex

The article is devoted to the issues of analysis, evaluation and modeling of the processes of socio-economic development of economic systems. The results of a study of integral indices used to rank countries according to the degree of development of social and economic processes are presented. A model is proposed for evaluating the effectiveness of socio-economic development. The method of determining the influence of factors on the change in the indicator of the effectiveness of the socio-economic development of the country and the region is disclosed, the forecast of indicators of the socio-economic development of Russia is made. The results obtained can be used to study macroeconomic processes in order to develop and adjust the socio-economic policy for business entities of various levels and substantiate management decisions.

ფასიანი ქაღალდების ბაზრის რეგულირების საკითხისათვის

Financial market is institutionally represented by the financial system. The segments of the decentralized financial system correspond to the sectors of the financial market. Financial relations are formed outside the financial market - in the form of a public financial system. The structure of the decentralized financial system is the relationship between the banking sector and liquid securities markets. The financial structure as a source of ways and mechanisms of economic development is the subject of discussions. In recent years, there has been an increase in the convergence of sectors of the financial system. The financial structure continues to transform. The principles of regulation are the main basic on which the practical actions of the state to regulate the securities market should be based. In contrast to state regulation of the market as a whole, that is, regulation of macroeconomic processes, regulation of the securities market is predominantly administrative in nature. The article expresses an opinion on the expediency of restoring the fundamental entry in the Law of Georgia “On the Securities Market”, according to which trading in government securities is allowed only on the stock exchange; The need to protect the interests of minority investors, greater transparency of information about issuers, regulated participants, large investors is also emphasized. The market regulation system is formed under the influence of problems that accumulate and require solutions. The regulation of the securities market by the state is explained by the role played by this market and the desire to increase the reliability of the market and the level of confidence on the part of all its participants. Regulation of the stock market by the state will be supplemented by regulation by self-regulatory participants. Public regulation (regulation through public opinion) is also very important. The reaction of the population to any action on the securities market is the primary reason for initiating this or that regulatory action on the part of the state or market professionals. The development of the securities market in Georgia will be facilitated by a deeper discussion of the mentioned market problems and ways to overcome them. The article highlights the modern trend of creating stock groups in the securities market; The impact of the Covid pandemic on the stock markets is shown; The different situation in the world is analyzed in terms of creating a system of financial market regulation. Currently, the banking system is the dominant sector of the financial market in Georgia, which has been determined by the policy of the National Bank of Georgia for a long period of time. It is no so important which body should play the role of a regulator - the NSC or the National Bank - the determining factors are the will of the (financial) authorities, the methodology of supervision and the qualifications of the staff. Keywords: securities market, principles of regulation, Regulatory system, IOSCO. JEL Codes: L26, L32, M14

Legal Regulation of Economic Processes at the Macro Level

The article analyzes the legal regulation of the economy at the structural level. Economists usually ignore the impact of law on macroeconomic processes. The main attention is paid to the study of the legal regulation of economic relations at the level of macroeconomics, as well as its primary links enterprises, organizations, etc. In particular, the legal regulation of several sublevels of the economy is singled out and considered: reproductive, sectoral (intersectoral), regional (interregional). It is concluded that the system of economic management is constantly undergoing changes under the influence of various factors of an objective and subjective nature, an important place among which is occupied by legal means and methods. The ideas put forward by R. Coase need to be reconsidered, considering new economic realities. Recommendations are made aimed at strengthening the role of the contract in economic management, improving legislation, and eliminating excessive administration of the activities of economic entities.

ПРАВОВИЙ СТАТУС ДЕРЖАВИ УКРАЇНА У ЦИВІЛЬНИХ ПРАВОВІДНОСИНАХ

The need for conceptual updating of civil legislation of Ukraine is one of the necessary conditions for attracting investment, ensuring proper and effective legal regulation of micro- and macroeconomic processes, which, in turn, removes obstacles to the development of new economic relations. Undoubtedly, in order to ensure the rule-making process, it is necessary to take into account the experience of foreign states, in particular the provisions of a private law nature developed within the framework of international organizations, as well as the experience of EU member states. However, when using the positive rule-making experience of foreign states and international organizations, the peculiarities of economic and political development of our state must be taken into account. One of the proposals by the developers of the Concept of updating the Civil Code of Ukraine is to consolidate the legal status of a legal entity under public law. This legislative approach aims to bring Ukraine's civil law closer to the EU and to address law enforcement issues. The state realizes its legal personality, including in the sphere of private relations, through the bodies created by it. Therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that in such conditions it is sufficient to grant the legal status of a legal entity under public law to public authorities. Each of the subjects has its own peculiarities of participation in civil relations due to the nature of origin, but this does not violate the principle of equality and does not create obstacles to entry and participation in them. The state, regardless of the peculiarities of entry and participation in civil relations, is their participant (subject) on a par with individuals and legal entities, whose participation also has its own characteristics. Moreover, enshrining in the Central Committee of Ukraine the provision that the state of Ukraine is a legal entity under public law may create additional grounds for manipulation at the political level in the context of the Russian Federation's attack on Ukraine. It is obvious that the aggressor country will use any grounds to deny the statehood of Ukraine, despite the fact that some states have a practice of consolidating the status of a legal entity under public law. The state of Ukraine is an independent participant in civil relations, which has no advantages in joining and participating in them. Peculiarities of state participation in civil relations are determined by acts of civil law in the same way as other participants in civil relations. The presence of sovereignty, as well as other features of the state, does not create advantages or obstacles to such participation. This gives grounds to conclude about the complex structure and integrity of the legal personality of the state.

TRENDS AND RESULTS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM

At present Vietnam, according to key economic and socially significant indicators, can be confidently attributed to dynamically developing states. Such achievements are a consequence of the sustainable development strategy consistently implemented by the public administration sector. The global modernization of the national economy of the country has brought significant results that can definitely be attributed to the experience of best practices. In general terms, characterizing the main features of the Vietnamese economy, one should single out the predominant share of agriculture, export orientation, including agricultural products, the intensity of GDP growth, the flexibility of authorities in regulating macroeconomic processes, etc. Given the agrarian orientation of the Vietnamese economy, the chosen course with an emphasis on agricultural industrialization and modernization contributed to the achievement of socially significant results in this industry. In this study, a detailed analysis of the main trends in the development of agriculture is carried out, an interpretation of the results is presented, problem areas are identified that do not allow taking a leading position among the countries of Southeast Asia in the export of agricultural products. The main directions of the agrarian policy implemented by the government of Vietnam are systematized, which are aimed at strengthening the competitive position of the state in the context of ongoing permanent institutional changes.

Transforming environmental governance: critical action intellectuals and their praxis in the field

Over the past decade, widespread concern has emerged over how environmental governance can be transformed to avoid impending catastrophes such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and livelihood insecurity. A variety of approaches have emerged, focusing on either politics, technological breakthrough, social movements, or macro-economic processes as the main drivers of change. In contrast, this paper presents theoretical insights about how systemic change in environmental governance can be triggered by critical and intellectually grounded social actors in specific contexts of environment and development. Conceptualising such actors as critical action intellectuals (CAI), we analyze how CAI emerge in specific socio-environmental contexts and contribute to systemic change in governance. CAI trigger transformative change by shifting policy discourse, generating alternative evidence, and challenging dominant policy assumptions, whilst aiming to empower marginalized groups. While CAI do not work in a vacuum, nor are the sole force in transformation, we nevertheless show that the praxis of CAI within fields of environmental governance has the potential to trigger transformation. We illustrate this through three cases of natural resource governance in Nepal, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and Kenya, where the authors themselves have engaged as CAI. We contribute to theorising the ‘how’ of transformation by showing the ways CAI praxis reshape fields of governance and catalyze transformation, distinct from, and at times complementary to, other dominant drivers such as social movements, macroeconomic processes or technological breakthroughs.

30 years of economic reforms in the post-Soviet space: Macroeconomic processes

The paper contains a retrospective analysis of macroeconomic policy and macroeconomic reforms in the post-Soviet countries in 1992—2021, that is, after obtaining political and economic independence at the end of 1991. Special attention is paid to the problems of macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth. As a result of structural distortions inherited from the Soviet economy and slow pace of economic and institutional reforms, the countries of the former Soviet Union suffered from the long and deep output decline in the 1990s, and their post-transition growth recovery in the 2000s did not last long. Furthermore, they remain vulnerable to both domestic and external economic shocks. Given a limited predictability of post-COVID global economic trends, this vulnerability will continue, most likely, in the next couple of years.

Синергия эконометрического и нейросетевого моделирования для определения факторов обеспеченности регионов РФ транспортной инфраструктурой

The article justifies actuality of application of neural network methods for identification of significant predictors of the transport and logistics infrastructure of regions of the Russian Federation. The condition of the logistics industry of the Russian Federation in comparison with foreign countries has been analyzed. It was concluded that it is necessary to increase the accuracy of estimation of indicators of transport and logistics infrastructure of regions in order to identify their impact on the development of logistics. The problem of the traditional methodology of building a model of transport and logistics infrastructure of regions based on the application of mathematical and econometric analysis lies in the inability of the latter to find and accurately describe the non-obvious dependencies in the data. The expediency of sequential coupling of econometric and neural network research tools has been determined. The two-step procedure of identification of factors influencing the logistics development of the Russian Federation has been tested. As a result, it was possible to select the most significant socio-economic (average per capita income of the population, retail trade turnover, imports of the subjects of the Russian Federation) and infrastructure factors (the share of paved roads, the shipment of goods by public rail, the departure of passengers by public rail, the density of public railway) logistics infrastructure on the basis of an econometric approach. In the second step of the study, a neural network model of the remaining factors was developed based on the development of classification trees and a neural network, acting as a kind of computational filter, which allowed solving the problem of attribution of macroeconomic data and achieving a high level of significance of forecasts. The proposed approach of sequential coupling of econometric methods and neural network modelling has universality and practical importance, therefore it is applicable to the study of a wide range of macroeconomic processes.

CURRENT REALITIES AND PROSPECTS OF AUDITING ACTIVITIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESSES

In modern conditions the issue of forming reliable and qualitative information about financial and economic activities of business entities acquires particular importance. Constant changes in the system of bookkeeping and tax accounting lead to significant errors, which in turn increases the place and role of the guarantor of the reliability of financial reporting indicators – audit. This is one of the most important types of services, which is becoming more and more relevant. In the article the authors analyzed the situation in the market of audit services in the dynamics for 2016-2020. It has been proved that the current state of the market of audit services is, first of all, expansion of the range of services; growth of professional competence and practical skills of auditors. It was substantiated that the market of audit services in general is significantly affected by significant changes taking place in Ukraine. The demand for audit services is dictated by the conditions of the business environment: macroeconomic processes (related, for example, to the integration of the country into the world market), government actions and legislation, the intentions of owners, consumer behavior. A set of measures to improve auditing activities in the country is proposed. The path of European integration chosen by the country requires harmonization of domestic legislation in the field of auditing activities with the conceptual framework of international standards. According to the authors, firstly, it is advisable to create public control over the work of audit firms that conduct audits of enterprises of public interest. Secondly, it is necessary to create an advisory body of public control and to separate its functions from the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine. Audit activity in Ukraine in the context of European integration processes certainly needs further discussions and comparisons, which, as a result, will certainly accelerate the harmonization of auditors' activities with European norms and standards. For the foreseeable future, it is necessary to look for appropriate ways and activities that would facilitate a flawless audit of financial statements.

USING THE CANONICAL MODELING APPROACH TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BANK CAPITALIZATION INDICATORS AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

The article summarizes the theoretical aspects of macroeconomic stability and bank capitalization as part of the national development of the economy. The authors systematize the main approaches to the definitions of these categories on the basis of a review of publications of foreign and domestic scientists. The main domestic and foreign indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability are identified. The aim of the study is to identify and analyze the main indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability and assess their relationship on the basis of the canonical model. In addition, the objective of the article is to develop practical recommendations for banks taking into account the results of the canonical analysis. The metadata for the bibliometric analysis were obtained from the Scopus scientometric database. The results of the bibliometric analysis allowed us to determine the relationship of macroeconomic stability and capitalization of banks with economic, financial, social and business processes. Among the main indicators of macroeconomic stability are the following: GDP, inflation, unemployment rate, national currency exchange rate, etc. Among the main indicators of bank capitalization are the ratio of capital to assets (for the G7 countries) and standards H1 and H2 (for Ukraine). The authors analyzed the above-mentioned indicators in the G7 countries and Ukraine from 2009 to 2020. The authors used canonical analysis and Statistica software to achieve the purpose of the study. The authors built a model based on quarterly statistical data of Ukraine from 2015 to 2020. The obtained results of the canonical analysis confirmed the strong connection between the volume of GDP and the capital of banks, which is 0.791, between GDP and the H2 ratio – 0.851, between the volume of bank capital and household income – 0.835. This necessitates further consideration of fluctuations in GDP and household incomes by banks, when developing resource policy. The constructed model shows the inseparable links between the processes in the banking system and macroeconomic processes. Banks also need to develop and implement appropriate action plans in case of negative economic growth scenario and impoverishment of the population.

Моделирование кредитной эмиссии в растущей экономике: долгосрочные эффекты и эксцессы

According to experts, the factor of monetary emission has not been studied enough among the factors which influence the emergence of long-period economic cycles. The neutrality of money is one of the reasons of long-period cycles. The authors of the article disagree with this opinion, since they support the concept of the non-neutrality of money in the long run. Accordingly, the purpose of the article is to investigate the features of this non-neutrality. Methodologically, the study relies on the mathematical modeling. The study has been conducted using the model of switching reproduction mode (SMR) created at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences — as a mesoeconomic mathematical model that calculates macro- and mesoeconomic changes based on the calculation of circulation of money, giving due regard the inflation with periodic renewal of fixed capital. The resulting lag effects of this update bring dynamics to the model and determine its most significant advantage. The main attention is given to credit emission. The nonlinear (threshold) effects accompanying credit issue make the analysis of its consequences more complicated. Numerical experiments are used to examine the influence of the debt load of the production subsystems s and the interest rate r on changes in the dynamics of the economic system. These effects in combination with other factors can lead to long-term dynamics in macroeconomic processes. The study includes a preliminary analysis of the ways to overcome the negative effects accompanying credit emission. It is justified that credit emission alone is not sufficient and additional emission by the Central Bank is necessary. Although additional emission may have a more serious inflationary impact, it can to a certain extent reduce the negative impact of credit emission. The results of the study can be used to substantiate recommendations for optimizing monetary policy.