Моделирование кредитной эмиссии в растущей экономике: долгосрочные эффекты и эксцессы

Abstract

According to experts, the factor of monetary emission has not been studied enough among the factors which influence the emergence of long-period economic cycles. The neutrality of money is one of the reasons of long-period cycles. The authors of the article disagree with this opinion, since they support the concept of the non-neutrality of money in the long run. Accordingly, the purpose of the article is to investigate the features of this non-neutrality. Methodologically, the study relies on the mathematical modeling. The study has been conducted using the model of switching reproduction mode (SMR) created at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences — as a mesoeconomic mathematical model that calculates macro- and mesoeconomic changes based on the calculation of circulation of money, giving due regard the inflation with periodic renewal of fixed capital. The resulting lag effects of this update bring dynamics to the model and determine its most significant advantage. The main attention is given to credit emission. The nonlinear (threshold) effects accompanying credit issue make the analysis of its consequences more complicated. Numerical experiments are used to examine the influence of the debt load of the production subsystems s and the interest rate r on changes in the dynamics of the economic system. These effects in combination with other factors can lead to long-term dynamics in macroeconomic processes. The study includes a preliminary analysis of the ways to overcome the negative effects accompanying credit emission. It is justified that credit emission alone is not sufficient and additional emission by the Central Bank is necessary. Although additional emission may have a more serious inflationary impact, it can to a certain extent reduce the negative impact of credit emission. The results of the study can be used to substantiate recommendations for optimizing monetary policy.