Macroeconomic Environment Research Articles

Հակաճգնաժամային կառավարման միջոցառումների միջազգային և հայաստանյան փորձը կորոնավիրուսային համավարակի պայմաններում

The purpose of the article is to describe the use of financial instruments of anticrisis management and their effectiveness in overcoming crisis situations based on international and Armenian experience. The objectives are as follows: to analyze the international experience of anti-crisis management, characteristics, current trends, study and evaluate the Armenian experience. Crisis management is particularly important in the context of public institutions due to the potentially overwhelming consequences (impact) of systemic crises on society as a whole. The research used general (synthesis, verification and tracking of dynamics and trends of macroeconomic indicators) and special (comparative analysis) scientific methods. As a result of the research carried out in the article, it was found that to overcome the coronavirus pandemic, governments have tried to respond to the crisis and control it uses various tools, despite the enormous scale and high rate of spread. Some governments have focused on gratuitous forms of financial assistance, others on reimbursable ones. Like the financial markets of the world, the reaction in the domestic markets has been extremely fast and violent. In the context of the decline of the global economy, the negative developments of the external sector have caused significant risks for the domestic macroeconomic environment of RA, which in turn has caused a high level of uncertainty regarding positive expectations. Thanks to the policy of the RA government and the Central Bank, the banking system has been able to maintain the continuity and smoothness of lending to the economy.

Investment potential of Ukraine in the conditions of war

The article examines the issue of Ukraine's investment potential in wartime conditions. It was determined that considering the complex macroeconomic environment and the slowdown of the world economy, it is problematic to outline investment strategies in Ukraine in the conditions of war. It has been studied that today investments in Ukraine are mostly associated with financial instruments that allow attracting and directing capital to enterprises. The reasons that reduce Ukraine's investment attractiveness are analyzed, in particular, a high level of corruption and an insufficient regulatory framework. A number of measures are proposed to reduce these risks and ensure the stability of the investment climate in Ukraine. It has been established that Ukraine currently offers all interested parties a wide investment menu of potential opportunities worth more than $400 billion as part of the Advantage Ukraine campaign, which was launched in 2022 to attract potential foreign investors. With the support of the President of Ukraine, a special platform was created, where investment projects and opportunities are collected in 10 industries that have significant investment potential in the conditions of war in Ukraine. It has been studied that the extremely high level of adaptability of Ukrainian enterprises in the current situation of martial law ensures the formation of investment potential in 10 sectors: the defense-industrial complex ($43 billion), energy ($177 billion), logistics and infrastructure ($123 billion), agro-industrial complex ($34 billion), industrial production ($16 billion), innovative technologies ($11 billion), metallurgy and metalworking ($26 billion), pharmaceuticals ($19 billion), natural resources ($5.6 billion), woodworking and furniture production ($5 billion). It has been investigated that, taking into account the continuation of the war on the territory of Ukraine, the most important thing in the process of formation of investment potential is the assessment of the attractiveness of investing in a certain area as a source of profit on the invested capital, taking into account the guarantees of the security of investments in wartime and postwar times. According to the results of the conducted reconnaissance, it was established that Ukraine has a powerful investment potential, and therefore, broad prospects for attracting foreign investments even during a bloody and destructive war. Despite the military conflict, Ukraine has significant investment potential in sectors such as IT, agriculture, energy and tourism.

서울 주택구매력지수의 변화가 지방거점도시 주택시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

This study attempted to derive the effect of changes in the Seoul Housing Purchasing Power Index on apartment prices in Jeonju, one of the representative non-metropolitan base cities, and to understand its meaning. The analysis method used VECM in consideration of the characteristics of the variables measured in time series. The summary and implications of the results of this study are as follows.
 First, the change in housing purchasing power in Seoul was found to be one of the main variables affecting apartment prices in Jeonju, a local hub city, and in particular, it was found to have a significant impact on the lag behind. In other words, if housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area soar and housing investors' ability to invest in the Seoul metropolitan housing market decreases, it is interpreted that they are interested in the apartment market in local hub cities with relatively high price advantages over some time difference. Second, it was found that the change in the population had the greatest effect on apartment prices in Jeonju. Finally, unlike research results on housing prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area, changes in major macroeconomic environments such as total currency, economic growth, and consumer price index did not significantly affect housing prices in Jeonju. This result is judged to be because the level of housing prices is very low compared to the metropolitan area, and the merit as an investment good or an inflation hedge is not high.

FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT PREDICATES OF SECURITY OF HOTEL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT

The article examines the level of safety of investments in hotel real estate, and also develops general recommendations regarding its provision. It is noted that the safety of investments is an integral concept, and its achievement of optimal indicators forms the investment attractiveness of the micro- and macroeconomic environment. It was found that the investment potential of hotel real estate has been decreasing since 2019 due to unavoidable factors, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic and large-scale military aggression on the territory of Ukraine, which caused significant risks of financial capital losses.A negative forecast regarding the level of investment attractiveness of the hotel sector was found, verified on the basis of the method of scanning horizon, which is aggravated by the uncertainty of the war timeframe and the impossibility of predicting the scale of the destruction of social and tourist infrastructure.Globalization and digitalization of all aspects of the economy make it possible to form priority directions for the formation of safe relations regarding the investment of hotel projects adapted to the new conditions of the national economy. The relevant factors determining the conditions of investment in hotel real estate were worked out by the method of scanning the horizon.Therefore, this study aims to assess the conditions and risks of an investment in hotel real estate and to develop potential innovative models of interaction between the investor and the recipient of the investment (a subject of the hotel business), which will increase the attractiveness of hotel real estate for investment. The relevance of the above provisions is confirmed by the prospects of restoration of the hotel business after the end of martial law in Ukraine.

THE IMPACT OF BANK TRAITS VARIABLES ON THE LIQUIDITY HAZARD IN JORDANIAN COMMERCIAL BANKS

This study aimed to investigate the impact of bank traits variables on the liquidity hazard in Jordanian commercial banks. It used a panel data model to analyze the impact of core bank factors like profitability, capital, credit, size, and management quality on liquidity risk for thirteen Jordanian commercial banks while controlling for the regulatory and macroeconomic environment. The research motivation by the relatively large size of Jordan's commercial banks compared to other economic sectors and the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa region. The econometric results demonstrate that liquidity risk is negatively impacted by efficient management, while profitability positively impacts it. Finally, because of the interplay between the various elements, the influence of capital and credit on liquidity risk was ambiguous. The range of commercial banks' operations in Jordan, which include financing the nation's economic sectors through their function as financial intermediaries, underlines how crucial it is to protect them against liquidity threats.

Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa

Objective – The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, and the PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the past year. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. The objective is, therefore, to evaluate the effects of the increase in commodity prices on inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Methodology –The study utilised a quantitative methodological approach through the assessment of an econometric model that employed monthly data from January 2017 to May 2022. The paper utilized variables such as CPI, brent crude oil prices, PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Findings – Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long-run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). The results also indicated that oil prices still influence the basic prices of goods and services since all things need to be transported. Novelty – The results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI’s and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are is reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: E31, E37, E60, E63 Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Neethling, J.R; Wyk, A.S.V. (2022). Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 7(3), 178–193. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.3(3)

MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF COMPETITIVENESS: EVIDENCES FROM FACTOR EFFICIENCY AND INNOVATION-DRIVEN COUNTRIES

The investigation of factors that increase or hinder competitiveness has been one of the core tenets of theoretical and empirical researchers, but so far there has been no consensus. This study responds to this issue by exploring how different facets of the macroeconomic environment influence competitiveness in the three Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) types of economy (factor-driven economy, efficiency-driven economy, innovation-driven economy). Using Porter’s classification, we divided countries based on factor, efficiency and innovation. Additionally, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to capture endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity of data in an unbalanced panel data for 81 countries (2002-2018). The results show that the variations of competitiveness across countries are mainly determined by variations in the stage of economic development. Firstly, GDP growth, low start-up costs and higher R&D expenditure play a key role in explaining the variation in competitiveness in three country clusters. Secondly, as regards Stage 1 countries, we find that trade openness, tax rate, GDP growth, start-up costs, real effective exchange rate, R&D expenditures and labor productivity are particularly vital for competitiveness. Concerning Stage 2 countries, we may observe that trade openness, tax rate, GDP growth, inflation, start-up costs, financial development, real effective exchange rate, R&D expenditures and labor productivity had a statistically significant impact on competitiveness. When it comes to Stage 3 countries, factors such as trade openness, FDI, tax rate, GDP growth rate, inflation, tax rate, startup costs, financial development, R&D expenditures, and labor productivity have an impact on competitiveness. This article presents some essential features, such as the macroeconomic index to determine competitiveness. These features can be used as guidelines for decision makers because they identify areas where taking further actions can improve competitiveness. Finally, our obtained results are highly consistent across a series of robustness tests and robustness checks covering alternative samples and alternative variable groups.

Macroeconomic Challenges for Life Insurance Market in the Baltic States

The development of life insurance sector in the Baltic States is influenced by various opportunities and threats from the macroeconomic environment. In this context, the aim of this paper is to identify some macroeconomic factors that influence various indicators describing the life insurance market in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania in the period 1993-2020 (direct premiums written, life insurance density, and life insurance penetration). The panel data approach suggests that economic growth, expenditure on tertiary education and income supports the development of the life insurance sector in these countries, while higher unemployment negatively affects the insurance market. These results have implications for the life insurance market forecasting in the new international context dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Analyzing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa

At the onset of 2022 the Russian Federation occupied Ukraine in a major intensification of the Russo-Ukrainian War that instigated in 2014. The result of the Russians invasion in Ukraine caused a major intensification in the inflationary levels and weakened global economic growth. As a result of the conflict the Brent Crude Oil prices increased from $92.98 per ounce on 24 February to $122.43 per ounce on the 8th of June 2022 which is an increase of 31.67 per cent in less than 4 months. The result of this invasion reformed the macroeconomic environment which fundamentally affected the international commodity markets and consequently leading to insufficient financial linkages between Russia and the rest of the World. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, the PPI for final manufactured good as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. A quantitative methodology was used through the estimation of an econometric model by utilizing monthly time series data from January 2017 to May 2022. The CPI was chosen as the dependent variable while the independent variables included the PPI, sunflower oil, Rand/Dollar exchange rate and the brent crude oil. Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). In conclusion, the results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI's and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are not reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil.

“Magic Diamond” in a Macroeconomic Performance: an Empirical Assessment of Selected EU Countries

A stable macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in the overall stability of an economy. Although macroeconomic stability cannot certainly drive the country’s productivity and competitiveness, its absence would have far-reaching consequences for its economy. The paper aims to analyze the macroeconomic performance of selected European (EU) countries, reflected in the “magic diamond “indicators: gross domestic product per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and trade balance, striving to figure out what contributes the most to the economic development of a country. The study includes the EU countries that are in a transition from efficiency-driven to innovation-driven stage of development: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia, covering the 22 years’ period from 1995 to 2016. The findings have provided better understanding of the overall macroeconomic performance, relation between individual indicators among each other, and their contribution to the economic growth in the context of selected EU countries.

What Drives the Development of Life Insurance Sector? Empirical Evidence from Tanzania

The study was conducted to examine determinants of life insurance development in Tanzania where by inflation rate, interest rates, income level, domestic savings and financial depth as independents variables while life insurance development specified by premium written was a dependent variable. The study guided by, the ex post facto research design. The study population consist the whole macroeconomic environment where sample of five aspects named interest rates, income level, domestic savings, financial depth and inflation rate selected with coverage of twenty-three (23) years from 1996 to 2018. The study employed a purposeful sampling technique to select five aspects of macroeconomic factors. The study employed secondary data pooled from the Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority (TIRA), Bank of Tanzania (BOT) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Basing on the hypotheses testing the study found that financial depth and interest rate have a statistically positive influence on life insurance development. Moreover, inflation rate, income level and domestic savings have a statistically negative influence on life insurance development at 5% significant level. The study findings provide insights from a practical point of view on the determinants of life insurance development in developing countries like Tanzania, thus filling the gap in the literature reviews. The study findings serve as guidance to regulators and policymakers on what set of factors to review and incorporate into policy in order to foster positive development of life insurance in Tanzania.

Problems of competitiveness of the regional economy

The purpose of the article is to study the problems of competitiveness of the regional economy. In modern market conditions regions compete with each other for attraction of investment resources (public, private or foreign), together with all sources of resources, as well as markets for their implementation, attracting taxpayers. At the same time, regions are independent subjects of the national and international markets. In this connection, the issue of ensuring competitiveness of the regions of Kazakhstan today is very relevant to us. One of the main goals of the Government of Kazakhstan is to ensure sustainable growth of the country's economy through diversification of its production base and implementation of the National Strategy for Territorial Development. Nevertheless, the prerequisites for regional competitiveness are laid at the national level. Sustainable development of regions is possible only in the presence of favorable conditions in the country, such as a macroeconomic environment conducive to growth, employment, stability, taxation and regulatory systems that stimulate business development and job creation. Provided the macroeconomic environment is properly controlled, microeconomic reforms aimed at overcoming market failures that hinder the country's competitiveness can only be effective at the regional and local level. In fact, most of the country's comparative advantages are determined by the specifics of its regions, and an effective national competitiveness strategy requires that the specifics (both opportunities and weaknesses) of the regions be taken into account. It is important to remember that the competitive development of a region is a multidimensional and multifaceted process.

How has COVID-19 affected the performance of green investment funds?

This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the dynamics of green investment funds in relation to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data on three of the largest green investment funds (BNP PARIBAS Funds Climate Impact, Nordea Global Climate & Environment, and AMUNDI Funds Global Ecology ESG), whose proceeds finance environmental-focused projects. We consider explicitly how different types of COVID-19 measures impact on these green assets. We show evidence that economic support due to COVID-19 has a positive effect on the green assets. The effect is especially strong when the returns are negative. We further report that strigency owing to the pandemic is also positively associated with green investment funds, but again, for negative returns. On the other hand, the effect of confirmed deaths is not as strong shows up mainly at lower quantiles. A similar results applies to infectious disease equity market volatility. We account for the broader macroeconomic environment and subject our models to a battery of sub-sample robustness checks. Our research offers interesting insights in terms of investment and portfolio diversification, that can be applied to the analysis of asset management and policy making.

Industry-specific analysis of the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment on corporate profits and estimation of corporate tax revenue

This study aims to present a methodology and construct a model for estimating corporate tax revenue, which is one of the main revenues. There is a need for a new tax revenue estimation model to replace both the existing tax revenue elasticity values that have been adopted for estimating tax revenue and the method of directly estimating tax revenue without first analyzing the increase and decrease in the taxable amount. The author focuses on the estimation of corporate tax revenue. To do it, the author focuses on the taxable object, that is, corporate profits, and the corporation that records it (the profit-making corporation). In addition, it hypothesizes the factors that increase or decrease the declared income, which are GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, and population, and hypothesizes how the influence of these macro-variables differs in each industry. The author estimates the declared profit for each industry. The author then estimates the corporate tax revenue by multiplying the declared income that the model estimated for each industry by the given tax rates. The result of this two-stage estimation method reveals that the accuracy of the estimation of this model is higher than the estimation values based on the conventional tax revenue elasticity. Furthermore, unlike the conventional tax revenue elasticity method, the author reveals that this model can accurately estimate (approximate) the actual increase in tax revenue in FY2020, when the economic growth was negative.

The determinants of Germany’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI)

The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of Germany's OFDI in the last 21 years on the set of top ten Germany’s OFDI destination (United States of America, United Kingdom, China, France, Poland, Mexico, India, Turkey, Spain and Russia (Russian Federation)) by using panel data analysis. The research revealed that Germany’s OFDI are driven by market seeking motives (FDI vertical), and also highlighting the importance of the stable political environment, attractive tax environment, more trade openness, and stable macroeconomic environment of the top ten Germany’s partners for attractiveness of the Germany’s OFDI. It indicates that openness of an economy is statistically significant in attracting FDI.

The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Residential Property Prices in Malaysia Before and During COVID-19

The macroeconomic environment directly and significantly impacts a country’s economy. For example, residential property prices in Malaysia have steadily increased in recent years. It has become a significant issue during the COVID-19 pandemic since a home is one of the essential items for each living human being. The research identified a few macroeconomic factors, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), private consumption, government expenditure, and household saving which influenced Malaysian residential property prices. The research applied a regression model to analyse the data to encounter the uncertainty problem related to Beaver univariance analysis. All data were collected by the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), The World Bank Data, and other data streams. Then, the research was tested using the time series method to predict and forecast the model. Based on the findings, the research shows that the distribution data for all variables are not normal. Overall, the variables are significant using the time series regression with the level of significance at 1%, 5%, and 10%. All variables tend to have a positive impact on residential property prices. The findings have significant policy consequences. Hence, it is critical to understand the pathways through which housing influences the economy to develop beneficial policies, as housing price declines are frequently cited as the primary constraint on household expenditure.

Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective

Precious metals and traditional energy prices are shaken by geopolitical tension, financial instability, rising inflation, declining economic growth, and financial markets. In addition, conventional energy, such as oil and gas, are intensive inputs to metal production, making these variables increasingly interconnected for economies and financial investment. This study analyzes the dynamics of the connectedness generated by economic instability and geopolitical risk on the traditional non-renewable energy and precious metals markets using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) and Wavelets Coherences from 11 June 2012 to 23 May 2022. The results show that the total connectedness index was higher during the Russia-Ukrainian conflict in February–May 2022. Moreover, the geopolitical risk, financial instability, and oil return are net transmitters of shocks, while gold, gas, and silver are the net received. The wavelet coherence results show strong co-movement during the Russia-Ukrainian conflict between geopolitical risk, oil, gas, and silver returns at various scales, given its properties for diversification at the time-frequency domain. Gold appears a stable asset and serves as a haven ability against geopolitical risk and financial instability. Findings indicate that geopolitical risk and financial instability are crucial in determining metals, precious, and energy markets that the investors, managers, funds, and producers need to consider in their investment and production decisions. Policymakers and macroprudential authorities should consider a shifting macroeconomic environment.

Young adults' financial well-being: current insights and future directions

PurposeFinancial well-being among young adults is an emerging and important field of research. This study aims to shed light on the current insights and future directions for young adults’ financial well-being research.Design/methodology/approachA systematic review was performed using (1) the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol to curate the corpus and (2) the bibliometric-content analysis technique to review that corpus on young adults’ financial well-being research.FindingsYoung adults’ financial well-being is influenced by contextual factors such as changes in macroeconomic environment, market factors, technological advancement and financial social comparisons, as well as personal factors such as sociodemographics, personality traits and values, skills and attitudes, financial practices, financial socialization, lifestyles and early life experiences, and subjective financial situation and mental health. Noteworthily, interest in this field is growing with a plethora of journals, countries, authors, theories, methods and measures.Research limitations/implicationsSeveral noteworthy gaps exist in the literature on young adults’ financial well-being, which include the lack of international collaboration, the lack of interventions to improve young adults’ financial well-being, the limited range of theoretical lenses, the limited consensus on measuring young adults’ financial well-being, the limited understanding of contextual factors, and the inconsistencies between personal factors and young adults’ financial well-being. Potential ways forward are proposed to address these gaps.Originality/valueThis review contributes to a seminal synthesis of young adults’ financial well-being research, providing both retrospective insights and prospective ways forward.

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

The question of how to proactively respond to population aging has become a major global issue. As a country with the largest elderly population in the world, China suffers a stronger shock from population aging, which makes it more urgent to transform its industrial and economic development model. Concretely, in the context of the new macroeconomic environment that has undergone profound changes, the shock of population aging makes the traditional industrial structure upgrading model (driven by large-scale factor inputs, imitation innovation and low-cost technological progress, and strong external demand) more unsustainable, and China has an urgent need to transform it to a more sustainable one. Only with an in-depth analysis of the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure can we better promote industrial structure upgrading under the impact of population aging. Therefore, six MSVAR models were constructed from each environmental perspective based on data from 1987 to 2021. The probabilities of regime transition figures show that the influencing mechanisms have a clear two-regime feature from any view; specifically, the omnidirectional environmental transition occurs in 2019. A further impulse-response analysis shows that, comparatively speaking, under the new environment regime the acceleration of population aging (1) aggravates the labor shortage, thus narrowing the industrial structure upgrading ranges; (2) has a negative, rather than positive, impact on the capital stock, but leads to a cumulative increase in industrial structure upgrading; (3) forces weaker technological progress, but further leads to a stronger impact on the industrial structure upgrading; (4) forces greater consumption upgrading, which further weakens industrial structure upgrading; (5) narrows rather than expands the upgrading of investment and industrial structures; and (6) narrows the upgrading of export and industrial structures. Therefore, we should collaboratively promote industrial structure upgrading from the supply side relying heavily on independent innovation and talent, and the demand side relying heavily on the upgrading of domestic consumption and exports.

Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages: COVID in perspective

We use a neural network language model and dependency parsing to extract textual information about shortages from US corporate filings. This allows us to study the COVID pandemic in the broader context of other macroeconomic environments over the past 25 years. Shortages are much more prevalent during the pandemic than they are during other times, especially in the goods sector and for intermediate inputs. Firms also report significantly more increases in costs. The largest number of shortages occurs at the very end of our sample, in the first half of 2022. Our data are consistent with several known economic facts that are unrelated to the pandemic. • We use a neural network language model and dependency parsing to extract textual information about shortages from US corporate filings. • Shortages are much more prevalent during the pandemic than they are during other times. • This is most pronounced in the goods sector and for intermediate inputs. • Shortages are most prevalent at the very end of our sample, in the first half of 2022. • Our data are consistent with several known economic facts that are unrelated to the pandemic.