서울 주택구매력지수의 변화가 지방거점도시 주택시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study attempted to derive the effect of changes in the Seoul Housing Purchasing Power Index on apartment prices in Jeonju, one of the representative non-metropolitan base cities, and to understand its meaning. The analysis method used VECM in consideration of the characteristics of the variables measured in time series. The summary and implications of the results of this study are as follows.
 First, the change in housing purchasing power in Seoul was found to be one of the main variables affecting apartment prices in Jeonju, a local hub city, and in particular, it was found to have a significant impact on the lag behind. In other words, if housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area soar and housing investors' ability to invest in the Seoul metropolitan housing market decreases, it is interpreted that they are interested in the apartment market in local hub cities with relatively high price advantages over some time difference. Second, it was found that the change in the population had the greatest effect on apartment prices in Jeonju. Finally, unlike research results on housing prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area, changes in major macroeconomic environments such as total currency, economic growth, and consumer price index did not significantly affect housing prices in Jeonju. This result is judged to be because the level of housing prices is very low compared to the metropolitan area, and the merit as an investment good or an inflation hedge is not high.