Low Turnout Research Articles

A Comparative Analysis of Centralized and Decentralized Developer Autonomous Organizations Managing Conflicts in Discussing External Crises

Understanding whether and how online developer communities resolve conflicts that occur in discussions is critical. Few studies focused on the conflicts caused by external crises, such as geopolitical events (e.g., the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian Crisis). We comparatively studied how a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), Aave project community, and a centralized autonomous organization (CAO), GitHub project community, managed external crises caused by conflicts. Our mixed-method analysis showed that a DAO could be better than a CAO for mitigating conflicts. And blockchain technologies (i.e., voting and cryptocurrency) played vital roles. To address the low voter turnout, we proposed adding a monetary incentive to engage more DAO members in forming common goals.

Digital-based Political Education through the Election Care Village Program in Deli Serdang Regency

The General Election Commission of the Republic of Indonesia established Desa Peduli Pemilu dan Pemilihan (DP3) to increase knowledge skills and strengthen public acceptance and trust in the election mechanism as the main instrument of the political system. The low voter turnout in Deli Serdang Regency is the reason for the KPU of North Sumatra Province to focus the program on Bandar Khalipah Village and Tembung Village. Observation results show the usefulness of the Desa Peduli Pemilu dan Pemilihan program as a projection to increase voter participation in 2024. Therefore, this service activity was carried out to provide an understanding of Digital-Based Political Education through the Election and Election Care Village Programme in Deli Serdang Regency by involving Bandar Khalipah Village and Tembung Village. The method used is a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisal and Participatory Learning and Action through three stages, namely Preparation, Implementation, and Evaluation. Firstly, this service activity was carried out together with DP3 with Bandar Khalipah Village and Tembung Village, which included learning about political education. Second, increasing understanding of the development of socialization and political education for citizens and increasing voter participation in Deli Serdang Regency; and third, assisting in digital content creation training. The results of this service recommend that activity participants be able to transform the understanding of political education to increase voter participation in Deli Serdang Regency. This service also suggests that the coaching and mentoring of digital content creation training be used in the long term by Bandar Khalipah Village and Tembung Village.

Ensuring Equitable Access to Participation in the Electoral Process: A Policy Brief From the American College of Physicians.

During the past 2 decades, voter turnout in U.S. presidential elections has ranged from 51.7% to 66.9% of the eligible population. Low voter turnout rates and inequitable electoral institutions, such as gerrymandered districts, can skew policy decisions toward the preferences of a smaller group and further exclude individuals and communities who have been historically marginalized and excluded from decision-making processes. Voting and health are directly connected through the institution of policies by ballot initiative and the election of officials who incorporate health into their platforms. They are also indirectly connected, as civic participation connects persons to their community and empowers them with agency in decision making. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians seeks to inform physicians, medical students, and other health care professionals on the links between electoral processes and health; encourage civic participation; and offer policy recommendations to support safe and equitable access to electoral participation to advance health equity for both patients and health care professionals.

Granting Immigrants the Right to Vote in National Elections: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Administrative Data

AbstractFaced with rising levels of cross-border migration, many countries have extended local voting rights to non-citizen residents. However, empirical evidence indicates that voter turnout among non-naturalized immigrants is lower when compared to citizens. This raises the question of how to explain this difference. A common answer is that the low turnout rates of non-citizen residents are primarily due to the socio-economic composition of this group and the challenges involved in adapting to a new political system. An alternative but less discussed possibility is that the low turnout concerns the nature of the elections. Hence, we examine whether the turnout of non-citizens is hampered because they are only allowed to partake in local elections. Based on a regression discontinuity design (RDD) using Swedish administrative data, we find that turnout could increase by 10–20 percentage points if the voting rights of non-citizens were extended to the national level.

UNVEILING THE HIDDEN LINK: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND VOTER TURNOUT IN BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN

The province of Balochistan in Pakistan provides an intriguing opportunity to analyze the complex correlation between human development and voter engagement. This study aims to determine if there is a direct relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI) and voter turnout in Balochistan. The study utilizes a quantitative research approach, analyzing data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and voter participation records for districts in Balochistan, Pakistan. The HDI data was acquired from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), whilst the voter turnout data was gathered from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The study's findings indicate no direct correlation between HDI and voter turnout. Some districts with low Human Development Index (HDI) values have a high voter turnout, whereas, on the other hand, certain districts with high HDI values have a low voter turnout. These findings indicate that other factors beyond HDI substantially influence voter turnout in Balochistan. Further research would be helpful to thoroughly understand the intricate relationship between HDI and voter turnout in Balochistan. These research efforts have the potential to find strategies that can increase voter turnout in the province.

European Parliament Elections Incentives for First-Time Voters: Evidence from the Secondary Schools

Summary The research deals with the phenomenon of low voter turnout in European Parliament elections. The article pays attention to young first-time voters who will encounter their first European Parliament elections in June 2024. It examines their attitude to polling in the context of school activities related to public affairs implemented in the school educational activities. Based on the qualitative survey conducted on pupils aged 17-18 attending secondary schools located in ten different member countries the research tackles the question whether the public secondary education may affect the incentives of first-time voters to cast their vote in the European Parliament elections. Consequently, the research focuses on the good practices and possible stimulus given by schools that may encourage to get to vote the representatives in the European Parliament. The outcomes of the research provide suggestions to enhance the formation of voting habits of young voters and increase their interest in both national and European public affairs.

The Urban Voter: Emerging Trend and Changing Pattern

The recent phenomenon of growing urbanization in India has shifted the focus from rural vote to urban vote in electoral politics. The discussion on urban politics and urban vote revolves largely around two issues—first the issue of turnout and second, a somewhat different political choice among the urban voters compared to the rural voters. The two issues have been highlighted by the fact that urban constituencies have registered lower turnout compared to the turnout in rural constituencies. Among the former, the constituencies of big metropolitan cities register much lower turnout compared to the constituencies of small and medium towns. Results of various elections in the past indicate that the backbone of electoral support of the BJP during the late 1990s is its strong support among the urban voters. The BJP’s strong support base among the urban voters enabled it to emerge as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha during the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections enabling it to form a coalition government along with other regional parties. This article tries to seek answers to the question, why do we see this distinct difference in voting patterns among rural and urban voters, especially till 2009 Lok Sabha elections, though it has changed somewhat during the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections? Is it because the rural India and Urban India represent two different kinds of voters, or is it because the issues and concerns of rural and urban voters are vastly different from each other which make them vote differently?

Increasingly Unequal. Electoral Participation and Political Inequalities in a Context of Decreasing Unionization in Italy (1983-2018)

Turnout has become increasingly unequal in many advanced democracies over the last few decades. Disadvantaged social groups are found to exhibit lower turnout compared to their better-off counterparts. According to numerous scholars, this growing gap is mainly attributed to the weakening of mass organizations that traditionally appealed to socio-economically disadvantaged social groups, particularly trade unions. However, very few studies have investigated these trends in Italy, a country that has witnessed a significant decrease in electoral turnout since the late 1970s, and where the socioeconomic causes of this decline have not been systematically explored. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to analyse, first and foremost, whether electoral participation in Italy is becoming increasingly unequal. Then, it moves to explore the extent to which the turnout gap between individuals with low and high socio-economic status (SES) could be moderated by both de-unionization and trade unions’ membership. By utilizing a dataset that combines 10 waves of the Italian National Election Study (1983-2018), the paper demonstrates that the turnout gap between low and high SES individuals has substantially widened over the last decades. Furthermore, it suggests that while the overall turnout gap is at least partially affected by the strength of trade unions in the country, trade unions still seem to be able to mobilize their members, particularly among lower social groups. This finding underscores the potential of trade unions to continue playing a role in equalizing turnout.

Digital technology and democracy in Nigeria: a study of how technology is transforming elections without necessarily deepening democracy

ABSTRACT This article examines the role of digital technologies in deepening democracy in Nigeria. It argues that though technologies have considerably improved the transparency and credibility of electoral processes in Nigeria, democracy remains stunted and weak. Elections have been marred by high voter apathy and low voter turnout. Vote buying has emerged to replace old forms of electoral malpractices such as ballot stuffing, result sheet manipulations, multiple voting and hijacking of ballot boxes. Furthermore, many elections in which technologies were used still end up being seriously disputed. The article concludes that deepening democracy requires much more than improving the credibility of electoral processes. Mature democracies are characterised by popular participation, equality of votes and effective representation. Other essential components include an independent electoral umpire, a sound legal framework and the rule of law.

The Usage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Among Quarry Workers in Abia and Ebonyi State, South East, Nigeria

Background: Personal protective equipment is a lifesaving equipment which helps in protecting the health of workers. Quarrying activity which is an economic/money marking activity requires workers to be well protected due to the various activities in the quarry sites. Aim: The aim of this work is to assess the usage of personal protective equipment (PPE) among quarry workers in Abia and Ebonyi States, South East, Nigeria. Method: A cross sectional study on the usage of personal protective equipment (PPE) among the quarry workers in Abia and Ebonyi State, South East Nigeria was conducted between May 2019 to June 2021 with the aim of determining the usage of personal protective equipment (PPE) among the quarry workers and to know if their level of education influences their use of PPE. Interviewing of workers with well-structured questionnaires was used for the study. The study population consists of seven registered quarries in both states. The multi-stage random sampling technique was employed in the study. The first stage was the selection of quarry sites, in which seven quarry sites were randomly selected through balloting. In the second stage, a total number of 406 quarry workers were selected for the study. Data was collected using a well-structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 20, percentages and mean were also used. Results: On the usage of personal protective equipment (PPE) by respondents, the result shows that 20.1% (49) out of 246 quarry workers in Ebonyi state use their PPE while 13.0% (21) out of 162 workers use theirs in Abia State. 61.2% (30) in Ebonyi and 7.4% (15) in Abia always used PPE regularly, 38.8% (19) and 28.6% (6) said “sometimes.” 46.9% (23) and 42.9% (9) in both states used nose masks, 22.5% (11) and 9.5% (2) helmets, 18.4% (9) and 19.1% (4) boots, glove users amounted to 8.2% (4) and 4.3% (3) in both states, 4.1% (3) and 4.3% (13) in Abia used body overall respectively. On the usage of PPE based on the level of education, it was found that among those with no formal education, 11.4% used PPE while working and 19.6% do not use it, 25.7% of those with primary education did while 48.8% did not. Among those with secondary and tertiary education 34.6% and 24.3% utilized PPE while 28.3% and 3.3% did not use PPE. This study found a statistically significant association between level of education and usage of personal protective equipment in both States (p= 0.0231). Conclusion: Information obtained from the study revealed that the majority of quarry workers in Abia and Ebonyi state knew that their job exposes them to health hazards. But there was a low turnout of usage among them. Despite these varying levels of compliance, intensive health education campaigns and provision of adequately subsidized safety protective devices for the workers by the relevant authorities will go a long way in improving awareness and compliance with use of safety protective devices and reduction of hazards.

Precarious work and challenger parties: how precarity influenced vote choice in the 2018 Italian election

AbstractAcross Western European democracies, the last 20 years have seen a growth of precarious employment and the rise of challenger parties. Both trends are especially marked in Italy, where occupational insecurity has become the norm and over half of the electorate has turned to a challenger party. In this article, I investigate the relationship between these two phenomena, addressing the question of whether and how precarity in the labor market influenced vote choice in the 2018 general election. First, I provide descriptive evidence that the Italian labor market shifted from dualism to generalized precarization. Second, I empirically investigate the relationship between precarity and voting in this context. The results show that the perception of precarity, not formal employment status, influenced voting behavior: it fostered participation, increased support for the Five Star Movement, and decreased support for the Democratic Party. These findings challenge core assumptions in the literature, first and foremost about precarious workers' low turnout rate, difficult mobilization, and consequent political irrelevance. They indicate that the electoral weight of precarious workers has increased, and their representation can be electorally beneficial.

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

In reaction to the severe socio-economic effects and upheavals that the Covid-19 sickness had on the world within the first few weeks of its introduction, everyone involved had to act quickly to look for possible solutions for preventing the ensuing epidemics. A prompt response is more critical given Nigeria's subpar social, economic, and healthcare infrastructure. Investigated was the efficacy of various pharmacological, non-pharmaceutical, or a combination of both therapies in flattening the Covid-19 incidence curve. In order to investigate the impact of these interventions, a deterministic SVEIHR model was created and applied. The Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) portal's Covid-19 data were used to parametrize the model. For simulations using a system dynamic simulation, estimated parameters were employed. The fundamental reproduction number, R0, was used to evaluate the success of our suggested intervention in effectively managing COVID-19 transmission. The simulation results demonstrated that the use of only non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the use of face masks, a light lockdown, and hand washing at baseline or high levels, is insufficient, with the R0 varying from vaccination at the vaccination rate of 0.5% with non-pharmaceutical interventions at any level of compliance, and a combination of vaccination at 0.05% and high hygiene level were effective in flattening the Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, returning a R0 less than 1. Furthermore, maintaining a high level of cleanliness, which includes hand washing and the use of a face mask, would be sufficient to stop the spread of Covid-19 disease and eventually flatten Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, given a low turnout of 0.05% for vaccination and the easing of lockdown.

The Impact of Election Laws on the Turnout of Young People

The twenty sixth amendment of the United States Constitution says that no citizen over the age of 18 years old shall be denied the right to vote. Despite this constitutional amendment, there are many barriers that hinder this act of voting. Multiple types of barriers exist: location, time, money, and most important to this research, legislative barriers. Based on the voter turnout of all Americans across the country, it appears that these barriers seem to disproportionately affect young people and minorities. The low turnout rates among youth and minorities are a serious threat to the effectiveness of our representative democracy in the United States. Since the raw data for the turnout of minorities does not exist, the effects laws have on their turnout will not be determined in this paper. Minorities, however, will still be discussed in the review of literature because of their importance in regards to voter turnout.

Comparing Methods for Estimating Demographics in Racially Polarized Voting Analyses

We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological inference (EI), King’s EI and EI:RxC using eiCompare. Using data from two different elections we identify circumstances in which different combinations of methods produce divergent results, comparing against ground-truth data where available. We first find that BISG outperforms CVAP at estimating racial composition, though fully Bayesian BISG does not yield further improvements. Next, in a statewide election, we find that all combinations of methods yield similarly reliable estimates of RPV. However, county-level analyses and results from a non-partisan school board election reveal that BISG and CVAP produce divergent estimates of Black preferences in elections with low turnout and few precincts. Our results suggest that methodological choices can meaningfully alter conclusions about RPV, particularly in smaller, low-turnout elections.

A National Voter Registration Campaign.

Research suggests that increased voting among adults is associated with improved child health. Despite the benefits of voting, the United States has low voter turnout compared with peer nations. Turnout is especially low among marginalized people in the United States. Voter registration is essential for increasing voter turnout, and registration efforts have been successfully carried out in clinical settings. Working with a nonprofit called Vot-ER, we advocated for nonpartisan voter registration efforts in pediatric settings nationwide preceding the November 2020 US elections. We describe lessons learned from these efforts. Using data obtained from Vot-ER, we also provide the first estimates of participation in a national voter registration campaign in pediatric settings. There was widespread engagement in voter registration efforts among pediatricians in 2020. Many lessons were learned from these efforts, including the benefits of advanced planning because registration deadlines can be up to 1 month in advance of Election Day. Obtaining buy-in from numerous stakeholders (e.g., health center leadership, public relations teams) supports widespread staff participation. Also important is to consider the tradeoffs between active voter registration (in which staff can broach the topic of voting with patients and families) and passive efforts (in which voting is discussed only if patients or families inquire about it). These and other lessons can inform future voter registration efforts in diverse pediatric settings across the country.

Does the competitiveness of election moderate the impact of descriptive social norms on voter turnout? A survey experiment in Japan

AbstractIntroThis article examines whether descriptive norms affect voters’ intention to vote in national elections in Japan and whether the impact of descriptive norms is moderated by the anticipated level of electoral competition. Social psychological research suggests that one's chance of voting is higher if they learn that many others are voting. On the other hand, knowing many others vote could make one think that their vote is not needed for influencing the election outcome, leading them to abstain.MethodTo test these competing expectations, I conducted a survey experiment in Japan in June 2022, presenting a hypothetical condition of the Lower House election and asking the respondents’ intention to vote in the hypothetical contest. I used a 2 × 2 design that varied (1) anticipated voter turnout (high turnout, low turnout) and (2) anticipated level of competition (high competition, low competition).ResultsI find that the descriptive norm of high voter turnout is positively associated with the chance of voting only when the expected level of competition is high.ConclusionThese are not consistent with the prior research demonstrating the strong influence of descriptive norms and the ones finding that the descriptive norm of nonparticipation leads to greater willingness to participate by generating the sense of threat.

THE CHARACTERISICS AND CHALLENGES OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR: IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC FOR SMALL AND MICRO-BUSINESSES IN LAGOS, NIGERIA

The future of small and micro-enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria’s informal sector has received less attention since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, the challenges and characteristics of the informal sector are used as arguments for understanding the future of SMEs in this sector in the era of the COVID-19 global pandemic. The study recruited a total of 17 informal-sector SME business owners in Lagos, Nigeria. The major implications of the pandemic include reduced patronage, low financial turnout, increased operational costs, poor supply chain functions, and liquidation of many SMEs. The need to embrace innovation and strategic change management is shown as critical to the sustainability of SMEs in the informal sector. This research echoes the need for a more regulatory function of the operations of informal-sector SMEs towards addressing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic for small businesses.

A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of how corruption, education, inequality and trust in parliament affect voter-turnout

This article empirically examines whether corruption, education, inequality, and trust in parliament affect voter turnout in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Specifically, fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis is used to determine whether these factors (individually or in combination) are necessary or sufficient conditions for high or low voter turnout. To date, this method has never been applied to the study of voter turnout and this study attempts to fill this gap. The main conclusion is that corruption harms democracy by lowering voter turnout. The analysis also provides evidence that trust in parliament affects political participation and that the persistence of low educational attainment in a country, together with high inequality, is a sufficient condition for low turnout. Overall, the results suggest the importance of fighting corruption for citizen participation in democracy. They also show that measures to increase turnout should combine improvements in democratic institutions, education, and distributive justice.

¿Por qué se aprobó el voto voluntario en Chile? Razones y argumentos que impulsaron la reforma

Teóricamente, con voto voluntario baja la participación electoral y tienden a votar más los ricos que los pobres, generando lo que la literatura denomina como sesgo de clase. Entonces, ¿qué lleva a los políticos a optar por un régimen de voto voluntario? Considerando el caso de Chile, nuestro objetivo es identificar las razones que impulsaron la reforma. Metodológicamente, utilizamos tres fuentes de información: discusión legislativa, encuestas de opinión y una inédita encuesta aplicada al 100% de los diputados luego de aprobada la reforma. Nuestros resultados indican que la reforma se aprobó producto de la interacción entre intereses estratégicos de la coalición de gobierno (de centro-izquierda) y de la oposición. Mientras el gobierno impulsó la reforma creyendo que los nuevos votantes serían principalmente de centro-izquierda, la derecha lo hizo pensando en que sus nuevos electores tendrían mayor probabilidad de votar dado su mayor nivel de ingresos. A esto se sumó un amplio apoyo ciudadano a la reforma expresado en las encuestas, lo que pudo presionar a los diputados. Constatamos que en la centro-izquierda hubo rápidas señales de arrepentimiento, pues el 70% de los diputados –en una encuesta hecha a meses de la reforma– se mostró partidario del voto obligatorio.

Political Alienation and Electoral Participation in Nigeria’s Democratization Process: A Survey of Voter Behaviour in the 2019 General

The study aimed to ascertain the reasons, nature and implication of voter abstention in Nigeria’s democratization process. The study posits that low voter turnout in Nigerian elections could be attributable to alienation and thus, sought to test the relationship between alienation and electoral participation focusing on the 2019 general elections. The study adopted the expo-facto research design. A sample of 1,200 respondents was chosen from the selected local government areas of the six zones using the stratified random sampling technique. The simple percentages and Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient statistical technique were used to test and determine the degree of association intrinsic to the stated hypotheses. The findings from the study showed that the failure of elected political officers to fulfil electoral promises, electoral fraud, and violence, are responsible for voter alienation in Nigeria. Therefore, the study suggested that elected political officials should ensure good governance based on meeting the needs of the citizenry; fraudulent practices during elections should be penalized with appropriate sanctions and the governments at all levels should put on modalities to mitigate the incidences of violence during elections.