Low Turnout Research Articles

HOOGGESPANNEN VERWACHTINGEN

GREAT EXPECTATIONS Elections and the consitutional reform of 1848 This article explores the causes of the low turnout at the Dutch elections in the years following the constitutional reform of 1848. The liberal reformers had hoped for an increased participation of Dutch voters after the introduction of direct suffrage, but were soon to be disappointed when after a promising start, the turnout dropped well below fifty percent. Drawing on Pierre Rosanvallon’s notions on political citizenship, this article tries to explain the low turnout.

Greater participation in RPS national elections sought after low turnout

Greater participation in RPS national elections sought after low turnout

Aspirations and Realities in Africa: IV. Nigeria's Emerging Two-Party System?

This article reviews Nigeria's recently concluded 2019 general elections, which mark twenty years of unbroken civil rule. It considers the impact of the election-management body's technological solutions to vote fraud and concludes that notwithstanding logistical challenges, a low turnout, vote-buying and pockets of violence, the era of wholesale election-rigging in Nigeria appears to be over. Despite attempts at creating a "third force" in Nigerian politics, a two-party system seems to be evolving. The article examines the main opposition's better-than-expected performance, and factors that may affect the ruling party in its efforts to retain the upper hand.

Old Sins Cast Long Shadows: The Long-Term Impact of the Resettlement of the Sudetenland on Residential Migration

We analyze the long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland after World War II on residential migration. This event involved expulsion of ethnic Germans and almost complete depopulation of an area of a country and its rapid resettlement by 2 million Czech inhabitants. Results based on nearest neighbor matching and regression discontinuity design show a higher population churn in resettled areas that continues today. The populations in resettled areas and in the remainder of the country share similar values and do not differ statistically in terms of their propensity to give donations, attend social events, and participate in voluntary work. However, we observe that resettled settlements have fewer local club memberships, lower turnout in municipal elections, and less frequently organized social events. This finding indicates substantially lower local social capital in the resettled settlements that is likely to have caused higher residential migration. This explanation is consistent with theoretical models of the impact of social capital on migration decisions.

Old sins cast long shadows: The Long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland on residential

We analyze the long-term impact of the resettlement of the Sudetenland after World War II on residential migration. This event involved expulsion of ethnic Germans and almost complete depopulation of an area of a country and its rapid resettlement by 2 million Czech inhabitants. Results based on nearest neighbor matching and regression discontinuity design show a higher population churn in resettled areas that continues today. The populations in resettled areas and in the remainder of the country share similar values and do not differ statistically in terms of their propensity to give donations, attend social events, and participate in voluntary work. However, we observe that resettled settlements have fewer local club memberships, lower turnout in municipal elections, and less frequently organized social events. This finding indicates substantially lower local social capital in the resettled settlements that is likely to have caused higher residential migration. This explanation is consistent with theoretical models of the impact of social capital on migration decisions.

The phenomenon of absenteeism in pre-revolutionary Russia

The author analyses the history of absenteeism in Russia and notes the relationship of modern electoral problems related to low voter turnout, political apathy, and a lack of understanding of the importance of electoral mechanisms by many voters with the historical conditions for the formation of representative institutions. It is noted, on the one hand, the existence of self-government in the peasant community, and on the other, indifference, lack of understanding of the significance of the election of deputies sent to Zemstvo councils. The article deals with the attitude to the elections as a heavy duty was also characteristic of the Petrine era – the election of burgomasters in Moscow, the establishment of a city government for financial and judicial affairs, which was not supported by most cities. A more favourable attitude to the elections was formed only when the deputies were convened in the laid commission under Catherine II. The author also considers the attitude of voters towards elections to bodies that emerged as a result of the Zemstvo reform, and elections to the State Duma of the Russian Empire.

Rejection of the Volost Zemstvo by the Multinational Population of Southeast Russia during the 1917 Election

This article contains an analysis of the election to the volost zemstvo in Southeast Russia in 1917. The study is based on documents from the archives of Stavropol, Astrakhan, and Orenburg regions, the State Archive of the Russian Federation, and materials from periodicals in the region under study. Soviet historiography claimed that the results of the 1917 election did not reflect the real (i. e. “left”) political preferences of the “masses”. However, the example of Southeast Russia does not support this conclusion. Party agitation did not play a decisive role in the zemstvo campaign. It would also be wrong to interpret the political predilections of the “underprivileged classes” as mainly Left Socialist-Revolutionary and Bolshevik. The failure of the election in national minority areas, the rather low voter turnout, and the election of relatively wealthy peasants as members of the city duma allow the author to conclude that in the 1917 election campaign, the traditional consciousness of the peasant population played a fundamental role. The traditionalism of Russian peasants was further strengthened due to the authorities’ special attitude towards their closest neighbours, i. e. representatives of national minorities. It was this traditionalism that impeded transition to a new management standard, i. e. the volost zemstvo, which was alien to peasants. The article demonstrates that the most important impediment for the reform was the mental conflict between advocates of the innovative “zemstvo volost” and adherents of traditionalist consciousness. The latter perceived the introduction of a volost zemstvo as an act of forced acculturation. It is concluded that the mental split of Russian society makes it possible to explain the pro-zemstvo orientation of many peasant councils of deputies and the anti-zemstvo attitude of both clan aristocracy and the majority of volost and rural chairmen. These factors explain the failure of the 1917 volost election in Southeast Russia in comparison to the centre of the country. It is noted that the cardinal conflict of opinions concerning the volost reform “from above” and “from below” predetermined the further development of the revolution in Southeast Russia.

Art and the Management of the Racial Archipelago: What is Äga Rum in the Million Homes Programmes in Malmö?

In 2015, the Swedish government allocated 130 million SEK to Äga rum (‘Taking Place’): a three-year program of arts projects across Sweden to address low voter turnout in certain housing areas, but which, in effect, target the immigrants. We argue—through a short account of Foucault’s take on the state, biopolitics, race, and governmentalisation—that this is an example of contemporary state racism, which is best understood as an inextricable part of biopolitical governmentalisation through forms of veridiction. We further analyse a specific governmental program (Äga rum) and a specific project (anonymised) within that program which takes place in two Miljonprogrammet housing areas in Malmö. Although both the program and the project have clear political agendas of empowerment and anti-exclusion, we argue that they nevertheless end up producing racial divisions and what we call a ‘racial archipelago.’

Knowledge and perception of assisted reproductive technology among women attending the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria, 2018

Context: Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is generating different views among women, especially in developing countries, and this has contributed to the low turnout in the utilization of the technology in the area. Aims: This study examined the knowledge and perception of ART among women that attended a tertiary health facility. Setting and Design: This cross-sectional study was conducted on women that attended the Obstetrics, Gynaecology, and Fertility clinics in the University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria, 2018. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted among 348 women through stratified probability sampling method, and a self-structured questionnaire with open-ended and Likert scale questions used as instrument was administered. Statistical Analysis Used: Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) at 0.05 significant levels. Results: The perception of ART had a huge mean of 3.99 (0.50). The result also revealed 73.0% awareness level of ART. Hypotheses testing brought out the mean comparison of perception of ART based on educational level using one-way ANOVA, which showed F = 0.071 and P = 0.552. Conclusion: There is a high awareness level but low knowledge about ART; therefore, appropriate policies and programs must be put in place to educate the populace on the importance and success rate of ART.

Le elezioni regionali in Sicilia del 5 novembre 2017

This article examines the outcome of the regional election held in Sicily on November 5, 2017. It was a victory for the center-right, which returns to power in the Region after the problematic term of the center-left president incumbent Rosario Crocetta. The center-right winner, Nello Musumeci, backed by a wide coalition but more right-oriented than in the past, has to be explained, on the one hand, with the low turnout - abstension reaching 53% - and, on the other hand, with the consolidation of the anti-establishment and protest movement Five Stars Movement (M5S) - which in 2017 increased its consensus of 12 percentage points to 2012 and remained the single biggest party in the Sicily's assembly. The election results show a polarization both in the government of the Region and in the opposition and a strong personalization of the electoral competition - this latter being a typical aspect of the elections in Sicily, whose evidence concerning this election's candidates is discussed in the article.

A Close-run Thing? Accounting for Changing Overall Turnout in UK General Elections

ABSTRACTTurnout at UK General Elections has remained stubbornly below post-war levels in the new millennium. Between 1950 and 1997, official turnout averaged 76% and never fell below 71% (in 1997); since 2001 average turnout has been 12 percentage points lower, at 64%. We investigate several possible explanations for that decline: the lack of competitiveness in recent contests; an increase in ideological similarity between the major parties; and partisan dealignment. Although electoral competitiveness affects turnout, and in the expected directions, it cannot readily account for the sudden drop in participation after 2000. But there is evidence that aggregate levels of partisanship are important: the unusually low turnout levels since 2000 are associated with unusually low levels of partisanship, and there are signs of a ‘threshold effect’.

Современная партийная система как фактор развития парламентаризма в России: институциональный и политико- психологический аспекты

The article is devoted to the modern Russian party system. In the first part of the article, the author shows the historical features of the parties formation in Russia and analyzes the reasons for the low turnout in the elections to the State Duma in 2016. According to the author the institutional reasons consist in the fact that the majority of modern political parties show less and less ability to produce new ideas, and the search for meanings is conducted on the basis of the existing, previously proposed sets of options. Parties reduce the topic of self-identification in party rhetoric, narrowing it down to “branded” ideas or focusing on the image of the leader. In addition, the author shows the decrease in the overall political activity of citizens after the 2011 elections, and points out that the legislation amendments led to the reduction of the election campaigns duration and changes in the voting system itself. The second part of the article is devoted to the study of the psychological aspects of the party system. The author presents the results of the investigation of images of the parties as well as the results of the population opinion polls, held by the centers of public opinion study. On the basis of this data, the author concludes that according to the public opinion the modern party system is ineffective, and the parties don’t have real political weight, which leads to the decrease of the interest in their activities and confidence in them. The author supposes that all this may be the consequence of the people’s fatigue from the same persons in politics, but at the same time the electorate’s desire to see new participants in political processes is formulated rather vaguely, since, according to the people, this might not bring any positive changes.

Empowering E-governance with E-voting

<p class="Default">Advances in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) have impacted the society in many ways. Be it education, healthcare, media or governance, the transformation is visible. As individual entities like education or healthcare systems have already implemented ICT to certain extent, e-governance is yet to make a significant progress even though several initiatives are undertaken. E-governance means activities like voting, administration, financial transaction etc., are enabled using automation systems. This paper discusses one part of the e-governance; e-voting. As e-voting empowers government, there are lot of challenges in implementing the e-voting system considering security threats and confidentiality involved in it. Online voting (e-voting) needs to be deployed as more convenient, relatively secure and less resource consuming system. E-voting system should ensure convenience for people to be able to access the system from personal or public computer with security and confidentiality. The presence of e-voting system with all the necessary security measures and convenience can be a potential solution for low voter turnout at the polls. The presented work demonstrates an online e-voting prototype system called SecureV. The proposed model achieves specific tasks namely, maintaining the anonymity of the voter, encryption of the vote, integrity check and avoids second time voting.<em></em></p>

‘Never just a local war’: explaining the failure of a mayor’s recall referendum

ABSTRACTThe November 2017 referendum for the recall of Dorin Chirtoacă, Mayor of Chișinău (Moldova), largely failed because of the citizens’ low turnout. Why do recall referendums fail and, in particular, why was this boycott strategy successful? My assumption is that the referendum was perceived not only as a tool to eliminate a major political competitor and thus weaken the anti-presidential opposition, but also as a wider attempt to gain extensive political control. I will use secondary data and data obtained from a focus-group research in order to show that the following factors determined the outcome of the boycott: the popular mistrust of institutions and parties, the perceived decisive importance of the Capital’s control nationwide, the citizens’ will to prevent the concentration of power, and the perception of the broader geopolitical stakes of the recall.

TERRITORIAL PATTERNS OF TURNOUT AND REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2002-2014 IN UKRAINE

Problem Statement and Purpose. Geography of turnout is in the periphery of the geographical studies of elections. However, recent studies of the geographical patterns of the turnout decline and dynamics in Western countries reveal the importance of the understanding of the time and place-specific contexts of the decisions to vote or not to vote. There are no studies dedicated to the geography of turnout in Ukraine; therefore, the paper aims to fill the gap and start a discussion of territorial patterns of turnout in parliamentary elections in the country in 2002-2014. Data & Methods. The paper examines the geography of turnout in Ukraine based on the data at the polling stations level and administrative rayons (n=490) and cities with special administrative status (n=183) level for parliamentary elections of 2002. 2006. 2007. 2012. and 2014. The cartographic analysis was conducted for the turnout at polling stations level and geography of the votes for the parties under the threshold at rayon and cities with special administrative status level. Results. The analysis reveals that South and East Ukraine has significantly lower turnout, which became more vivid after 2002 elections, cities in Ukraine have essentially lower turnout than the periphery, and territories with higher shares of national minorities also have lower turnout. The situation is complicated by the higher level of support for parties, which did not reach the threshold on proportional voting in 2014 parliamentary elections in the South and East Ukraine, and higher support of such parties in the territories with higher shares of national minorities in 2002-2014. The paper also reveals that the gap in turnout between urban and rural areas was declining in 2002-2014 because of the lower level of turnout decline in cities. Moreover, in 2006 parliamentary elections, turnout in cities with special administrative status increased despite continuous decline in the periphery. We also start a discussion about the causes and consequences of the territorial patterns in turnout and its dynamics in Ukraine.

Exploring the democratic linkage through the lens of governmental polling: a research agenda

For the last few decades, liberal democracies have been confronted with new challenges such as low turnout, high electoral volatility, the electoral success of populist movements and growing dissatisfaction with the political system. These challenges have persuaded scholars to develop new insights into the democratic linkage, hence the growing body of works focusing on the link between public opinion and public policies—from responsiveness to persuasion and policy feedback. Examining this literature, government opinion polls appear both as the central apparatus through with public opinion and public policies interact and as mostly a black box. In this article, I aim first to unveil the function and the role attributed by scholars to government opinion polling when investigating the democratic linkage, then to propose a review of the few empirical studies which have attempted to disentangle its use by diverse political authorities and finally to outline a research agenda. I would argue that scrutinizing opinion polling—Who is ordering polls? What kind of apparatus is involved? Which questions are being asked? When? What for? Who is using the results? For what purpose?—would offer us a better understanding of the democratic linkage, as this will reveal political leaders’ lay theories of democracy, how much they are shared and how they evolve over time.

Turnout in Local Elections: Is Timing Really Everything?

Abstract Though it is often assumed that U.S. local elections are uniformly low turnout events, there is actually considerable variation across space and time. Building on literature on local turno...

Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger and Turnout among the Unemployed

AbstractAre people under economic stress more or less likely to vote, and why? With large observational datasets and a survey experiment involving unemployed Americans, we show that unemployment depresses participation. But it does so more powerfully when the unemployment rate is low, less powerfully when it is high. Whereas earlier studies have explained lower turnout among the unemployed by stressing the especially high opportunity costs these would-be voters face, our evidence points to the psychological effects of unemployment and of campaign messages about it. When unemployment is high, challengers have an incentive to blame the incumbent, thus eliciting anger among the unemployed. Psychologists have shown anger to be an approach or mobilizing emotion. When joblessness is low, campaigns tend to ignore it. The jobless thus remain in states of depression and self-blame, which are demobilizing emotions.

Voting Turnout and Referendum Outcomes on Same‐Sex Marriage, 1998–2015*

ObjectivesThis analysis of referenda voting on same‐sex marriage (SSM) from 1998 until Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) focuses on the impact of turnout, which has been neglected in previous research on gay marriage referenda.MethodsWe employ OLS regression analysis with clustered standard errors by state to analyze voting on SSM referenda with eight county‐level variables and seven state‐level variables. Our novel data set includes 2,610 counties across 34 different states.ResultsHigher referendum turnout consistently produced less support for banning SSM. Additionally, we find that the gap between the polling numbers and referendum results was caused by low turnout levels. A higher turnout would reduce that gap, so that polling would have more closely approximated public opinion.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that impact of voter turnout on public policy is understudied, and including turnout measures may help future researchers better understand the electoral behavior of morality policy referenda.

Public Housing for Lower-Middle-Income Families: New Jersey’s State Housing Program in the Late 1940s

This article addresses a lost housing alternative at the dawn of post-New Deal, homeowner-centered America. At the end of the 1940s, the State of New Jersey attempted to launch a state public housing program for lower-middle-income families who had been left out of both the private market for prospective homeowners and the existing public housing projects. The program, however, was incompatible with business-backed plans to create a mass homeownership society. Galvanized by anti-tax sentiment among current and prospective homeowners, voters rejected a state housing bond referendum necessary to the program. An additional factor was white residents’ politics of exclusion that produced anti-public housing hysteria. Finally, plan proponents’ lack of consensus about financial resources and grass-roots activities failed to sway public opinion and resulted in low voter turnout in central places.