Voting Turnout and Referendum Outcomes on Same‐Sex Marriage, 1998–2015*

Abstract

ObjectivesThis analysis of referenda voting on same‐sex marriage (SSM) from 1998 until Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) focuses on the impact of turnout, which has been neglected in previous research on gay marriage referenda.MethodsWe employ OLS regression analysis with clustered standard errors by state to analyze voting on SSM referenda with eight county‐level variables and seven state‐level variables. Our novel data set includes 2,610 counties across 34 different states.ResultsHigher referendum turnout consistently produced less support for banning SSM. Additionally, we find that the gap between the polling numbers and referendum results was caused by low turnout levels. A higher turnout would reduce that gap, so that polling would have more closely approximated public opinion.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that impact of voter turnout on public policy is understudied, and including turnout measures may help future researchers better understand the electoral behavior of morality policy referenda.