Low-frequency Variability Research Articles

Revealing recurrent regimes of mid-latitude atmospheric variability using novel machine learning method.

The low-frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have a profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and longer timescales. However, reliable data-driven identification and dynamical representation of such states are still challenging problems in modeling the dynamics of the atmosphere. We present a new method, which allows us both to detect recurring regimes of atmospheric variability and to obtain dynamical variables serving as an embedding for these regimes. The method combines two approaches from nonlinear data analysis: partitioning a network of recurrent states with studying its properties by the recurrence quantification analysis and the kernel principal component analysis. We apply the method to study teleconnection patterns in a quasi-geostrophical model of atmospheric circulation over the extratropical hemisphere as well as to reanalysis data of geopotential height anomalies in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in the winter seasons from 1981 to the present. It is shown that the detected regimes as well as the obtained set of dynamical variables explain large-scale weather patterns, which are associated, in particular, with severe winters over Eurasia and North America. The method presented opens prospects for improving empirical modeling and long-term forecasting of large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes.

Seasonal controls on nearshore dissolved oxygen variability and hypoxia in a coastal embayment

Declining dissolved oxygen (DO) is emerging as an increasingly important stressor in nearshore ecosystems, and there is a growing need to better understand DO dynamics and hypoxia risk in this highly variable environment. In this study, we collected data from monthly cruises on the inner shelf, continuous nearshore moorings inside and outside a small coastal upwelling embayment (San Luis Obispo Bay in Central California), and weekly phytoplankton measurements inside the bay during the upwelling season. Nearshore DO was generally dominated by low-frequency synoptic variability, with increased DO variance near the surface relative to the bottom and inside the bay compared to outside. Two nearshore hypoxic regimes were identified. In the first regime, which occurred during periods of strong upwelling in the spring across all nearshore sites, the nearshore bottom water temperature-DO (T-DO) relationship was aligned with that found offshore, suggesting hypoxia was driven by the direct advection and cross-shelf exchange of low DO subthermocline waters from the shelf. This period also coincided with minimal water-column stratification, small vertical DO differences, and a diatom-dominated phytoplankton assemblage. In the second regime, which occurred during summer months and was characterized by weaker upwelling, strong stratification, and dinoflagellate-dominated phytoplankton assemblage, the near-bottom T-DO relationship inside the bay deviated significantly from that on the shelf offshore. These hypoxic events inside the bay were likely driven by localized respiration and lack of ventilation of bottom waters due to strong stratification. Collectively, these observations reveal a shift in the strength and magnitude of physical versus biological processes driving nearshore DO dynamics. The high spatiotemporal variability of DO dynamics in upwelling bays means that they are likely to be at the forefront of ecosystem impacts of and adaptions to climate change, and may act as sentinel systems or “canaries on the coast.”

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Abstract. Near-term projections of climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present an approach to reduce this uncertainty by sub-selecting those ensemble members that more closely resemble observed patterns of ocean temperature variability immediately prior to a certain start date. This constraint aligns the observed and simulated variability phases and is conceptually similar to initialization in seasonal to decadal climate predictions. We apply this variability constraint to large multi-model projection ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of more than 200 ensemble members, and evaluate the skill of the constrained ensemble in predicting the observed near-surface temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We find that the constrained projections show significant skill in predicting the climate of the following 10 to 20 years, and added value over the ensemble of unconstrained projections. For the first decade after applying the constraint, the global patterns of skill are very similar and can even outperform those of the multi-model ensemble mean of initialized decadal hindcasts from the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP). In particular for temperature, larger areas show added skill in the constrained projections compared to DCPP, mainly in the Pacific and some neighboring land regions. Temperature and sea-level pressure in several regions are predictable multiple decades ahead, and show significant added value over the unconstrained projections for forecasting the first 2 decades and the 20-year averages. We further demonstrate the suitability of regional constraints to attribute predictability to certain ocean regions. On the example of global average temperature changes, we confirm the role of Pacific variability in modulating the reduced rate of global warming in the early 2000s, and demonstrate the predictability of reduced global warming rates over the following 15 years based on the climate conditions leading up to 1998. Our results illustrate that constraining internal variability can significantly improve the accuracy of near-term climate change estimates for the next few decades.

Low-frequency fluctuations in the yearly misclosures of the global mean sea level budget during 1900–2018

Abstract Sub- and super-harmonics of luni-solar forcing are proxies for the natural variations in sea levels observed at tide gauge stations with long records as demonstrated in earlier studies. This study also identified their signatures in the noisy yearly misclosures of the global mean sea level budget for the period 1900–2018. The analyses of the yearly misclosures revealed a temporal linear systematic error of 0.08 ± 0.02 mm/year, which is not explained by the budget components. The estimate is statistically significant (α = 0.05) but small in magnitude and accounts for only 11% (adjusted R 2) of the variations in the yearly misclosures. Meanwhile, the yearly misclosures have also a statistically significant constant bias as large as −12.2 ± 0.9 mm, which can be attributed to the lack of a common datum definition for the global mean sea level budget components. Modeling the low-frequency changes of luni-solar origin together with a trend and constant bias parameters reduces variability in the misclosures. Accounting for their effects explains 50% (adjusted R 2) of the fluctuations in the yearly misclosures compared to the 11% if they are not. In addition, unmodeled low-frequency variations in the yearly global budget closure assessments have the propensity of confounding the detection of a statistically significant recent uniform global sea level acceleration triggered by anthropogenic contributors.

Influence of low frequency variability modes on spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in Northwestern North America

ABSTRACT This study performs a comprehensive analysis of the influence of low-frequency variability modes (LFVMs) on the average and extreme temperature and precipitation in the extended winter (November–February) over Northwestern North America (NWNA). Maximum covariance analysis is applied to quantify the covariability between LFVMs and regional climate variables, followed by composite analysis to assess the influence of each LFVM on extremes at local scales using high-resolution gridded observations. This study extends previous analyses by characterizing the spatial patterns of regional climate variations associated with a suite of LFVMs. This includes the associations between negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and extreme precipitation over western NWNA and the central Columbia basin and the positive phase of the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) with increases in the minimum and maximum temperature of NWNA except for the western Fraser basin. Overall, the analyses show that LFVM effects are more pronounced over the eastern and southcentral parts of NWNA during extended winter.

The Role of Barotropic versus Baroclinic Feedbacks on the Eddy Response to Annular Mode Zonal Wind Anomalies

Abstract The annular mode, the leading pattern of low-frequency variability in the extratropics, owes its temporal persistence to a positive feedback between eddy momentum fluxes and the background zonal wind anomalies associated with the annular mode itself. The mechanisms by which the zonal wind anomalies impact the eddy momentum fluxes fall into two families: 1) baroclinic mechanisms: changes in the amount and location of wave activity generated via baroclinic instability cause the changes in eddy momentum fluxes and 2) barotropic mechanisms: the zonal wind anomalies impact the eddy momentum fluxes directly via critical levels, turning latitudes, and the refraction of meridionally propagating waves. This paper takes a critical look at various methodologies that conclude that baroclinic feedbacks are dominant by developing multiple independent estimates of the relative role of baroclinic versus barotropic processes. All methods conclude that barotropic mechanisms are most important; however, baroclinic mechanisms are not negligible. Additional experiments with the baroclinic feedback turned off (via manipulations to the vertical friction profile) also suggest that barotropic feedbacks are dominant. The methods for estimating the feedbacks are 1) Rossby wave chromatography, 2) forced manipulations of the vertical structure of EOF1 using linear response functions, and 3) quantitatively inferring the meridional wave propagation from the mean wave activity budget and then using this to analyze the wave activity response to anomalies. The last method is also applied to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere reanalysis, and similar conclusions about the feedbacks are reached.

Associated Summer Rainfall Changes over the Three Rivers Source Region in China with the East Asian Westerly Jet from 1979 to 2015

Abstract Under the intensification of global warming, the characteristics of the Three Rivers source region (TRSR; i.e., headwaters of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, and the Lancang River) in China were diagnosed in the summer season from 1979 to 2015 using observations and reanalysis data. The diagnoses indicate that summer precipitation decreased from 1979 to 2002 [by 9.01 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1; p < 0.05 by Student’s t test] and increased significantly after 2002 [by 5.52 mm day−1 (10 yr)−1]. This abrupt change year (2002) was further confirmed by the cumulative anomaly method, the moving t-test method, and the Yamamoto method. By compositing the thermodynamics before and after the abrupt change year (2002), the results reveal that increased water vapor and more substantial lower-level convergence were present over the TRSR during 2003–15. This marked interdecadal variability in the TRSR summer precipitation responded to the interdecadal position and intensity of the large-scale forcing East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ), which is significantly modulated by the low-frequency variability associated with Southern Oscillation index. The connection between the interannual TRSR precipitation and the location and intensity of EAWJ was also explored. The position index of the EAWJ is negatively (with correlation coefficient R of −0.446; p < 0.05 by Student’s t test) correlated with the precipitation over the TRSR, implying that southward and northward years of EAWJ are respectively associated with intensifying and weakening the TRSR summer precipitation, whereas the intensity of EAWJ is insignificantly correlated with the TRSR summer precipitation.

Multi-frame, ultrafast, x-ray microscope for imaging shockwave dynamics.

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) holds increasing promise as a potential source of abundant, clean energy, but has been impeded by defects such as micro-voids in the ablator layer of the fuel capsules. It is critical to understand how these micro-voids interact with the laser-driven shock waves that compress the fuel pellet. At the Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS), we utilized an x-ray pulse train with ns separation, an x-ray microscope, and an ultrafast x-ray imaging (UXI) detector to image shock wave interactions with micro-voids. To minimize the high- and low-frequency variations of the captured images, we incorporated principal component analysis (PCA) and image alignment for flat-field correction. After applying these techniques we generated phase and attenuation maps from a 2D hydrodynamic radiation code (xRAGE), which were used to simulate XPCI images that we qualitatively compare with experimental images, providing a one-to-one comparison for benchmarking material performance. Moreover, we implement a transport-of-intensity (TIE) based method to obtain the average projected mass density (areal density) of our experimental images, yielding insight into how defect-bearing ablator materials alter microstructural feature evolution, material compression, and shock wave propagation on ICF-relevant time scales.

Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses to urodynamics testing after spinal cord injury: The influence of autonomic injury.

Autonomic dysfunction is a prominent concern following spinal cord injury (SCI). In particular, autonomic dysreflexia (AD; paroxysmal hypertension and concurrent bradycardia in response to sensory stimuli below the level of injury) is common in autonomically-complete injuries at or above T6. AD is currently defined as a >20 mmHg increase in systolic arterial pressure (SAP) from baseline, without heart rate (HR) criteria. Urodynamics testing (UDS) is performed routinely after SCI to monitor urological sequelae, often provoking AD. We, therefore, aimed to assess the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses to UDS and their association with autonomic injury in individuals with chronic (>1 year) SCI. Following blood draw (plasma norepinephrine [NE]), continuous SAP, HR, and middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (MCAv) were recorded at baseline (10-minute supine), during standard clinical UDS, and recovery (10-minute supine) (n = 22, age 41.1 ± 2 years, 15 male). Low frequency variability in systolic arterial pressure (LF SAP; a marker of sympathetic modulation of blood pressure) and cerebral resistance were determined. High-level injury (≥T6) with blunted/absent LF SAP (<1.0 mmHg2) and/or low plasma NE (<0.56 nmol•L−1) indicated autonomically-complete injury. Known electrocardiographic markers of atrial (p-wave duration variability) and ventricular arrhythmia (T-peak–T-end variability) were evaluated at baseline and during UDS. Nine participants were determined as autonomically-complete, yet 20 participants had increased SAP >20 mmHg during UDS. Qualitative autonomic assessment did not discriminate autonomic injury. Maximum SAP was higher in autonomically-complete injuries (207.1 ± 2.3 mmHg) than autonomically-incomplete injuries (165.9 ± 5.3 mmHg) during UDS (p < 0.001). HR during UDS was reduced compared to baseline (p = 0.056) and recovery (p = 0.048) only in autonomically-complete lesions. MCAv was not different between groups or phases (all p > 0.05). Cerebrovascular resistance index was increased during UDS in autonomically-complete injuries compared to baseline (p < 0.001) and recovery (p < 0.001) reflecting intact cerebral autoregulation. Risk for both atrial and ventricular arrhythmia increased during UDS compared to baseline (p < 0.05), particularly in autonomically-complete injuries (p < 0.05). UDS is recommended yearly in chronic SCI but is associated with profound AD and an increased risk of arrhythmia, highlighting the need for continued monitoring during UDS. Our data also highlight the need for HR criteria in the definition of AD and the need for quantitative consideration of autonomic function after SCI.

A Theory for Self-Sustained Multicentennial Oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract In this work, a single-hemisphere 4-box model is used to study the low-frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We introduce an enhanced mixing mechanism in the subpolar ocean to balance the positive salinity advection feedback, so that the AMOC in the 4-box model exhibits a self-sustained multicentennial oscillation. The enhanced mixing mechanism is proposed based on results from a coupled climate model, which show that the eddy-induced mixing or diffusion in the subpolar ocean is always enhanced when the AMOC anomaly is large; namely, the enhancement is due to weak stratification when the AMOC is strong, and is due to mesoscale and submesoscale eddies when the AMOC is weak. Without the enhanced mixing, the 4-box model system can be either stable or unstable, but cannot realize a self-sustained stable oscillation. With the enhanced mixing, the 4-box model can be interpreted approximately as a reduced 3-box model, so that the theoretical solution to the multicentennial oscillation can be obtained. The oscillation period is determined by the eigenvalue of the system, which is fundamentally controlled by the turnover time of the upper ocean. We also illustrate that the multicentennial oscillation can be excited by stochastic freshwater forcing. This study suggests that the Atlantic Ocean has an intrinsic multicentennial mode, which may help us understand this class of variability identified in paleoclimatic proxy data.

What Distinguishes MJO Events Associated with Atmospheric Rivers?

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow bands of intense water vapor transport that often induce heavy precipitation and flooding along the west coast of North America. Previous studies demonstrate that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) contributes to the predictability of AR activity on a subseasonal time scale. However, individual AR responses vary widely following the same phase of MJO. Here we investigate 96 MJO events following phase 3 (convection over the Indian Ocean) and analyze the differences between events that brought large-scale ARs to the entire Pacific Northwest coastal region and those that did not. The MJO events with ARs tend to stay longer at phase 3 than those without ARs. We use linear regression to isolate the extratropical signals linearly related to the MJO and explore how the residual fields differ between the two groups. The linearly dependent signal shows slow-moving planetary-scale water vapor transport across the North Pacific. The residual field exhibits a contrasting extratropical low-frequency (&gt;10 days) pattern in the Gulf of Alaska resembling the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern: a trough for events with ARs and a ridge for events without ARs. This low-frequency variability alters the Pacific waveguide such that, for MJO events with ARs, baroclinic waves are directed into the Pacific Northwest with an orientation that favors anomalous positive IVT. For MJO events without ARs, the ridge strengthens large-scale anticyclonic flow over the North Pacific and prevents moisture access to the Pacific Northwest.

A dataset of hourly sea surface temperature from drifting buoys

A dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) estimates is generated from the temperature observations of surface drifting buoys of NOAA’s Global Drifter Program. Estimates of SST at regular hourly time steps along drifter trajectories are obtained by fitting to observations a mathematical model representing simultaneously SST diurnal variability with three harmonics of the daily frequency, and SST low-frequency variability with a first degree polynomial. Subsequent estimates of non-diurnal SST, diurnal SST anomalies, and total SST as their sum, are provided with their respective standard uncertainties. This Lagrangian SST dataset has been developed to match the existing and on-going hourly dataset of position and velocity from the Global Drifter Program.

Moisture Origin and Transport for Extreme Precipitation over Indonesia’s New Capital City, Nusantara in August 2021

Nusantara, Indonesia’s new capital city, experienced a rare extreme rainfall event on 27–28 August 2021. This heavy rainfall occurred in August, the driest month of the year based on the monthly climatology data, and caused severe flooding and landslides. To better understand the underlying mechanisms for such extreme precipitation events, we investigated the moisture sources and transport processes using the Lagrangian model HYSPLIT. Our findings revealed that moisture was mostly transported to Nusantara along three major routes: from Borneo Island (BRN, 53.73%), the Banda Sea and its surroundings (BSS, 32.03%), and Sulawesi Island (SUL, 9.05%). Overall, BRN and SUL were the main sources of terrestrial moisture, whereas the BSS was the main oceanic moisture source, having a lower contribution than its terrestrial counterpart. The terrestrial moisture transport from BRN was mainly driven by the large-scale high vortex flow, whereas the moisture transport from the SUL was driven by the circulation induced by boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and low-frequency variability associated with La Niña. The near-surface oceanic moisture transport from BSS is primarily associated with prevailing winds due to the Australian monsoon system. These insights into moisture sources and pathways can potentially improve the accuracy of predictions of summer precipitation extremes in Indonesia’s new capital city, Nusantara, and benefit natural resource managers in the region.

Stronger decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension under simulated future climate change

Understanding the behavior of western boundary current systems is crucial for predictions of biogeochemical cycles, fisheries, and basin-scale climate modes over the midlatitude oceans. Studies indicate that anthropogenic climate change induces structural changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) system, including a northward migration of its oceanic jet. However, changes in the KE temporal variability remain unclear. Using large ensembles of a global coupled climate model, we show that in response to increasing greenhouse gases, the time scale of KE sea surface height (SSH) shifts from interannual scales toward decadal and longer scales. We attribute this increased low-frequency KE variability to enhanced mid-latitude oceanic Rossby wave activity induced by regional and remote atmospheric forcing, due to a poleward shift of midlatitude surface westerly with climatology and an increase in the tropical precipitation activity, which lead to stronger atmospheric teleconnections from El Niño to the midlatitude Pacific and the KE region. Greenhouse warming leads to both a positive (elongated) KE state that restricts ocean perturbations (e.g., eddy activity) and stronger wind-driven KE fluctuations, which enhances the contributions of decadal KE modulations relative to short-time scale intrinsic oceanic KE variations. Our spectral analyses suggest that anthropogenic forcing may alter the future predictability of the KE system.

Flow Around Curved Tandem Cylinders

Abstract The flow around curved tandem cylinders of equal diameter has been investigated for the first time, by means of direct numerical simulations. A convex configuration was used. The nominal gap ratio was L/D = 3.0 and a Reynolds number of 500 was chosen. Due to the change in effective gap ratio along the cylinder axis, there is a variation of tandem flow regimes, from alternating overshoot/reattachment, via stable reattachment, to co-shedding, in this case called gap shedding. The combination of reattachment and gap shedding gives near-zero drag and vertical forces for the downstream cylinder, whereas the corresponding forces on the upstream cylinder are comparable to single curved cylinders. Meanwhile, the opposite is true for the lift forces. A low-frequency variation of horizontal and vertical forces is seen, and this is attributed to a slow variation of the position where gap shedding commences. Finally, the concept of a critical angle is proposed to describe the transition to gap shedding, for a given combination of nominal gap ratio and Reynolds number.

Long-term Average Spectrum and Nasal Accelerometry in Sentences of Differing Nasality and Forward-Focused Vowel Productions Under Altered Auditory Feedback

To investigate whether voice focus adjustments can alter the audio-vocal feedback and consequently modulate speech/voice motor control. Speaking with a forward-focused voice was expected to enhance audio-vocal feedback and thus decrease the variability of vocal fundamental frequency (F0). Twenty-two healthy, untrained adults (10 males and 12 females) were requested to sustain vowel /a/ with their natural focus and a forward focus and to naturally read the nasal, oral, and mixed oral-nasal sentences in normal noise-masked auditory conditions. Meanwhile, a miniature accelerometer was externally attached on the noise to detect the nasal vibrations during vocalization. Audio recordings were made and analyzed using the long-term average spectrum (LTAS) and power spectral analysis of F0. Compared with naturally-focused vowel production and oral sentences, forward-focused vowel productions and nasal sentences both showed significant increases in nasal accelerometric amplitude and the spectral power within the range of 200∼300 Hz, and significantly decreased the F0 variability below 3 Hz, which has been reported to be associated with enhanced auditory feedback in our previous research. The auditory masking not only significantly increased the low-frequency F0 variability, but also significantly decreased the ratio of the spectral power within 200∼300 Hz to the power within 300∼1000 Hz for the vowel and sentence productions. Gender differences were found in the correlations between the degree of nasal coupling and F0 stability as well as in the LTAS characteristics in response to noise. Variations in nasal-oral acoustic coupling not only change the formant features of speech signals, but involuntarily influence the auditory feedback control of vocal fold vibrations. Speakers tend to show improved F0 stability in response to a forward-focused voice adjustment.

Long-term ENSO prediction with echo-state networks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon that profoundly impacts weather patterns and extreme events worldwide. Here we develop a method based on a recurrent neural network, called echo state network (ESN), which can be trained efficiently to predict different ENSO indices despite their relatively high noise levels. To achieve this, we train the ESN model on the low-frequency variability of ENSO indices and estimate the potential future high-frequency variability from specific samples of its past history. Our method reveals the importance of cross-scale interactions in the mechanisms underlying ENSO and skilfully predicts its variability and especially El Niño events at lead times up to 21 months. This study considers forecasts skillful if the correlation coefficients are above 0.5. Our results show that the low-frequency component of ENSO carries substantial predictive power, which can be exploited by training our model on single scalar time series. The proposed machine learning method for data-driven modeling can be readily applied to other time series, e.g. finance and physiology. However, it should be noted that our approach cannot straightforwardly be turned into a real-time operational forecast because of the decomposition of the original time series into the slow and fast components using low-pass filter techniques.

Large-Scale Meteorological Drivers of the Extreme Precipitation Event and Devastating Floods of Early-February 2021 in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia

Unusually long duration and heavy rainfall from 5 to 6 February 2021 caused widespread and devastating floods in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. The heavy rainfall was produced by two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The first MCS developed at 13Z on 5 February 2021 over the southern coast of Sumatra and propagated towards Semarang. The second MCS developed over the north coast of Semarang at 18Z on 5 February 2021 and later led to the first peak of precipitation at 21Z on 5 February 2021. These two MCSs eventually merged into a single MCS, producing the second peak of precipitation at 00Z on 6 February 2021. Analysis of the moisture transport indicates that the strong and persistent north-westerly wind near the surface induced by CENS prior to and during the event created an intensive meridional (southward) tropospheric moisture transport from the South China Sea towards Semarang. In addition, the westerly flow induced by low-frequency variability associated with La Nina and the tropical depression over the North of Australia produced an intensive zonal (eastward) tropospheric moisture transport from the Indian Ocean towards Semarang. The combined effects of the zonal and meridional moisture transport provided favorable conditions for the development of MCSs, and hence extreme rainfall over Semarang. These results provide useful precursors for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction in Semarang and the surrounding regions in the future.

Climate Autobiography Timeline: Adapting Timeline Research Methods to the Study of Climate Perceptions

Abstract Climate perception is a growing area of study in the social sciences and one that has implications on the tools and strategies we use to communicate climate change risk information. However, the range of climate perception studies remains limited, focused primarily on perceptions of day-to-day weather, sudden-onset severe events, or long-term permanent change. Phenomena situated between these extremes (e.g., annual- to decadal-scale variability) are largely missing from social science of climate research. Whether this is due to limited perception by research participants, is due to limited research attention, or is a reflection of the methods commonly applied to human dimensions of climate research, this gap precludes analysis of the full range of complex climate experiences and their influence on climate perception and understanding. In this paper, we offer a proof of concept for the climate autobiography timeline (CAT), a visual timeline tool developed to assess climate perception while prompting an ordered consideration of time, with the goal of eliciting insights into complex and long-term climate experiences such as low-frequency climate variability. Results are based off a preliminary application of the CAT across focus groups conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador, a province of Canada that is subject to low-frequency climate variability and frequent high-impact weather. Results reveal three key findings: 1) weather and climate narratives are commonly anchored to two time periods, potentially obscuring perceptions of variability; 2) narratives focus on socially important weather and climate phenomena; and 3) the social and visual coconstruction of weather and climate narratives may yield more holistic representations of local climate knowledge. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to highlight the utility of timeline research methods to the study of climate perception research. Specifically, the climate autobiography timeline (CAT) serves as a tool that can address limitations of research tools commonly applied to the study of climate perceptions, notably the inability for current methods to elicit and organize complex climate experiences. Failure to capture these experiences may prevent a holistic and socially grounded understanding of climate perceptions. Drawing from a preliminary application of CATs in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada, we highlight how the tool can provide information complementary to, but distinct from, data collected through more commonly used methods such as interviews or surveys. This approach holds promise for analyses of long-term climate history, impacts of historical severe events, and cultural impact of weather and climate.

Strong evidence for parasympathetic sinoatrial reinnervation after heart transplantation.

Heart transplantation (HTx) surgically denervates the heart. We examined indices of sinoatrial reinnervation, with emphasis on (1) the occurrence and timing of parasympathetic reinnervation, and (2) the consequences of reinnervation for heart rate (HR) responsiveness and arterial baroreceptor sensitivity. Fifty HTx recipients were prospectively followed for 36 months after surgery. Hemodynamic variables and heart rate variability were continuously recorded at supine rest, 60 degrees head-up-tilt, during the Valsalva maneuver and during handgrip isometric exercise. Suggesting parasympathetic reinnervation: at baseline rest, root of the mean squared differences of successive RR intervals increased from median 3.9(5.9) to 7.1(5.1) ms (p < 0.001); high-frequency power increased from 4.0(12) to 5.7(18.9) ms2 (p=0.018); and baroreceptor sensitivity increased from 0.04(0.36) to 1.3(2.4) ms/mmHg (p < 0.001). Suggesting sympathetic reinnervation: at baseline rest low-frequency power increased from 0.49(2.5) to 7.5(18.1) ms2 (p < 0.001); and HR responses to sympathetic stimulation during (1) head-up tilt increased from 1.9(4.2) to 9.1(8.2) bpm (p < 0.001), (2) Valsalva increased from 1.6(1.4) to 8.3(10.8) bpm (p < 0.001) and (3) handgrip increased from 0.3(0.6) to 1.9(5.1) bpm (p < 0.001). Signs of sympathetic reinnervation emerged within 6 months, while signs of parasympathetic reinnervation emerged by 24 months. Root of the mean squared differences of successive RR intervals, high-frequency and low-frequency variability, HR responsiveness and arterial baroreflex sensitivity all increased after HTx, suggesting functional parasympathetic and sympathetic sinoatrial reinnervation. Accordingly, the pathological regulatory state present in heart transplant recipients, which is responsible for a host of functional and clinical abnormalities, is being partially offset over time by restored autonomic control of the heart in many heart transplant recipients.