Low-frequency Variability Research Articles

Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear1,2, with empirical data and model simulations often disagreeing on the magnitude and sign of these responses3. Most climate models predict that the PWC will ultimately weaken in response to global warming4. However, the PWC strengthened from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a significant role for anthropogenic and/or volcanic aerosol forcing5, or internal variability. Here we use a new annually resolved, multi-method, palaeoproxy-derived PWC reconstruction ensemble (1200–2000) to show that the 1992–2011 PWC strengthening is anomalous but not unprecedented in the context of the past 800 years. The 1992–2011 PWC strengthening was unlikely to have been a consequence of volcanic forcing and may therefore have resulted from anthropogenic aerosol forcing or natural variability. We find no significant industrial-era (1850–2000) PWC trend, contrasting the PWC weakening simulated by most climate models3. However, an industrial-era shift to lower-frequency variability suggests a subtle anthropogenic influence. The reconstruction also suggests that volcanic eruptions trigger El Niño-like PWC weakening, similar to the response simulated by climate models.

Progress Toward Transition Edge Sensor Arrays With On-Chip Thermal Stabilization

Electrothermal feedback in a transition edge sensor (TES) suppresses thermal fluctuations in the TES and well-thermally coupled regions in proximity. We have designed a heavily metallized, leg-isolated membrane with a TES which serves as a thermal isolation stage that can be lithographically integrated with other devices, for example, a suitably designed TES detector. Through modeling, fabrication, and test of prototype devices, we plan to examine the utility of stabilizing this guard stage to limit low frequency variability in the sensor response. In one implementation, a leg-isolated TES bolometer of higher superconducting transition temperature ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T_c</i> ) is encircled by a second membrane region which is metallized and thermally stabilized by a second, lower- <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T_c</i> TES. We present fabrication results on the dual- <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">T_c</i> device and explore varied heat capacity of the thermal stability stage in the single-pixel design. We then evaluate the use of this stage for multiple pixel arrangements and investigate the criteria for stabilizing such a device.

Inversion of VLF-R data using a non-linear rank order smoothing constraint and its implementation to image surface rupture of the North Anatolian Fault in Başiskele, Kocaeli, NW Turkey

Inversion of electromagnetic induction data is often realized using smoothing operators for regularizing the process. These operators are applied using derivative matrices, penalizing differences between neighboring mesh cells. The resulting smoothing effect is similar to that of low-pass Gaussian filters and may cause difficulties due to the smoothed boundaries between structures. To prevent such ambiguities, non-linear rank filters are applied widely in image processing applications to filter low frequency variations while keeping boundaries. Correspondingly, we have defined a non-linear rank order smoothing operator for regularization. The effects of the defined parameters are demonstrated on synthetic models and the operator is observed to be able to provide better defined boundaries. The implementation of the operator on field data is realized using single-frequency VLF-R data collected on profiles traversing the surface rupture of the North Anatolian Fault in Kocaeli, Turkey. In the study area, ERT data are also collected on a single profile, and its smooth inversions are realized individually and jointly with VLF-R data for comparisons. Inversions show that the recovered subsurface structure using the rank order smoothing is closer to that indicated by the ERT data and previous studies. According to the recovered models, the clayey fillings in the fault rupture are acting as a barrier affecting the horizontal fluid flow in the near-surface and the resulting water accumulations around the fault rupture may cause susceptibility for earthquake induced damages.

Statistical Connections between Large-Scale Climate Indices and Observed Mean and Extreme Temperatures in the US from 1948 to 2018

In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to the frequency and intensity of heat waves and overall changes in temperature throughout the United States (US), correlations between long-term monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures throughout the contiguous US on the one hand and low-frequency variability of multiple climate indices (CIs) on the other hand are analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2018. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to assess correlation strength, while leave-one-out cross-validation and a bootstrapping technique (p-value) are used to address potential serial and spurious correlations and assess the significance of each correlation. Three parameters defined the sliding windows over which surface temperature and CI values were averaged: window size, lag time between the temperature and CI windows, and the beginning month of the temperature window. A 60-month sliding window size and 0 lag time resulted in the highest correlations overall; beginning months were optimized on an individual site basis. High (r ≥ 0.60) and significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibited the strongest links to temperatures in the western US, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to temperatures in the central US, the WHWP to temperatures throughout much of the eastern US, and atmospheric patterns over the northern Atlantic to temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast. The final results were compared to results from previous studies focused on precipitation and coastal sea levels. Regional consistency was found regarding links between the northern Atlantic and overall weather and coastal sea levels in the Northeast and Southeast as well as on weather in the upper Midwest. Though the MJO and WHWP revealed dominant links with precipitation and temperature, respectively, throughout the West, ENSO revealed consistent links to sea levels and surface temperatures along the West Coast. These results help to focus future research on specific mechanisms of large-scale climate variability linked to US regional climate variability and prediction potential.

Cognitive Load Estimation in VR Flight Simulator.

This paper discusses the design and development of a low-cost virtual reality (VR) based flight simulator with cognitive load estimation feature using ocular and EEG signals. Focus is on exploring methods to evaluate pilot's interactions with aircraft by means of quantifying pilot's perceived cognitive load under different task scenarios. Realistic target tracking and context of the battlefield is designed in VR. Head mounted eye gaze tracker and EEG headset are used for acquiring pupil diameter, gaze fixation, gaze direction and EEG theta, alpha, and beta band power data in real time. We developed an AI agent model in VR and created scenarios of interactions with the piloted aircraft. To estimate the pilot's cognitive load, we used low-frequency pupil diameter variations, fixation rate, gaze distribution pattern, EEG signal-based task load index and EEG task engagement index. We compared the physiological measures of workload with the standard user's inceptor control-based workload metrics. Results of the piloted simulation study indicate that the metrics discussed in the paper have strong association with pilot's perceived task difficulty.

Asymmetric cellular bi-stability in the gap between tandem cylinders

In the gap region of tandem cylinders, within the reattachment regime, bi-stability is seen to be cellular. Direct numerical simulations at a Reynolds number of 500, and a gap ratio of 3.0, show that shedding of gap vortices occurs in spanwise cells, with lengths between 0.3 and 2.7 cylinder diameters. These unstable vortex cells tend to be asymmetric with respect to the gap centreline, so that vortices are repeatedly shed from just one gap shear layer for several periods. The unstable cells appear within the basic spanwise cell structure dictated by the three-dimensional instability, and their cell lengths do not exceed those of the basic cells. Unstable cells intermittently become spanwise coherent, and this leads to a significant increase in drag amplitude. The mode change in the gap is associated with low-frequency variation of the reattachment and separation points on the downstream cylinder, causing low-frequency modulation of the vortex formation length.

Turbulence-supported Massive Star Envelopes

The outer envelopes of massive (M ≳ 10 M ⊙) stars exhibit large increases in opacities from forests of lines and ionization transitions (particularly from iron and helium) that trigger near-surface convection zones. One-dimensional (1D) models predict density inversions and supersonic motions that must be resolved with computationally intensive three-dimensional (3D) radiation hydrodynamic (RHD) modeling. Only in the last decade have computational tools advanced to the point where ab initio 3D models of these turbulent envelopes can be calculated, enabling us to present five 3D RHD Athena++ models (four previously published and one new 13 M ⊙ model). When convective motions are subsonic, we find excellent agreement between 3D and 1D velocity magnitudes, stellar structure, and photospheric quantities. However, when convective velocities approach the sound speed, hydrostatic balance fails as the turbulent pressure can account for 80% of the force balance. As predicted by Henyey, we show that this additional pressure support leads to a modified temperature gradient, which reduces the superadiabaticity where convection is occurring. In addition, all five models display significant overshooting from the convection in the Fe convection zone. As a result, the turbulent velocities at the surface are indicative of those in the Fe zone. There are no confined convection zones as seen in 1D models. In particular, helium convection zones seen in 1D models are significantly modified. Stochastic low-frequency brightness variability is also present in the 13 M ⊙ model with comparable amplitude and characteristic frequency to observed stars.

The Impact of Fine-Scale Currents on Biogeochemical Cycles in a Changing Ocean.

Fine-scale currents, O(1-100 km, days-months), are actively involved in the transport and transformation of biogeochemical tracers in the ocean. However, their overall impact on large-scale biogeochemical cycling on the timescale of years remains poorly understood due to the multiscale nature of the problem. Here, we summarize these impacts and critically review current estimates. We examine how eddy fluxes and upscale connections enter into the large-scale balance of biogeochemical tracers. We show that the overall contribution of eddy fluxes to primary production and carbon export may not be as large as it is for oxygen ventilation. We highlight the importance of fine scales to low-frequency natural variability through upscale connections and show that they may also buffer the negative effects of climate change on the functioning of biogeochemical cycles. Significant interdisciplinary efforts are needed to properly account for the cross-scale effects of fine scales on biogeochemical cycles in climate projections.

Sex differences in deleterious genetic variants in a haplodiploid social insect.

Deleterious variants are selected against but can linger in populations at low frequencies for long periods of time, decreasing fitness and contributing to disease burden in humans and other species. Deleterious variants occur at low frequency but distinguishing deleterious variants from low-frequency neutral variation is challenging based on population genomics data alone. As a result, we have little sense of the number and identity of deleterious variants in wild populations. For haplodiploid species, it has been hypothesised that deleterious alleles will be directly exposed to selection in haploid males, but selection can be masked in diploid females when deleterious variants are recessive, resulting in more efficient purging of deleterious mutations in males. Therefore, comparisons of the differences between haploid and diploid genomes from the same population may be a useful method for inferring rare deleterious variants. This study provides the first formal test of this hypothesis. Using wild populations of Northern paper wasps (Polistes fuscatus), we find that males have fewer missense and nonsense variants per generation than females from the same population. Allele frequency differences are especially pronounced for rare missense and nonsense variants and these differences lead to a lower mutational load in males than females. Based on these data we infer that many highly deleterious mutations are segregating in the paper wasp population. Stronger selection against deleterious alleles in haploid males may have implications for adaptation in other haplodiploid insects and provides evidence that wild populations harbour abundant deleterious variants.

Combined influence of ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Eurasian Steppe during 1982–2018

As the most influential atmospheric oscillation on Earth, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly change the surface climate of the tropics and subtropics and affect the high latitudes of northern hemisphere areas through atmospheric teleconnection. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant pattern of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere. As the dominant oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere, the ENSO and NAO have been affecting the giant grassland belt in the world, the Eurasian Steppe (EAS), in recent decades. In this study, the spatio-temporal anomaly patterns of grassland growth in the EAS and their correlations with the ENSO and NAO were investigated using four long-term leaf area index (LAI) and one normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing products from 1982 to 2018. The driving forces of meteorological factors under the ENSO and NAO were analyzed. The results showed that grassland in the EAS has been turning green over the past 36 years. Warm ENSO events or positive NAO events accompanied by increased temperature and slightly more precipitation promoted grassland growth, and cold ENSO events or negative NAO events with cooling effects over the whole EAS and uneven precipitation decreased deteriorated the EAS grassland. During the combination of warm ENSO and positive NAO events, a more severe warming effect caused more significant grassland greening. Moreover, the co-occurrence of positive NAO with cold ENSO or warm ENSO with negative NAO kept the characteristic of the decreased temperature and rainfall in cold ENSO or negative NAO events, and deteriorate the grassland more severely.

Dual-Frequency Wind-Driven Mixed Rossby–Gravity Waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

Abstract Frequency spectra of in situ meridional velocity measurements in the central equatorial Indian Ocean show two distinct peaks at “quasi biweekly” periods of 10–30 days. One is near the surface at frequencies of 0.06–0.1 cpd (periods of 10–17 days) and the other is in the pycnocline (∼100-m depth) at lower frequencies of 0.04–0.06 cpd (periods 17–25 days). Analysis of a wind-forced ocean general circulation model shows that variability in the two frequency bands represents wind-driven mixed Rossby–gravity waves. The waves share a similar horizontal structure, but the meridional scale of lower-frequency variability is about one-half of that of higher-frequency variations. Higher-frequency variability has its largest amplitude in the eastern basin while the lower-frequency variability has its largest amplitude in the central basin. The vertical wavelength of lower-frequency variability is smaller by a factor of 3–4 than that of higher-frequency variability. These results are consistent with expectations from linear mixed Rossby–gravity wave theory. Numerical simulations show that the primary driver of these waves is surface wind forcing in the central and eastern Indian Ocean and that dynamical instability does not play a major role in their generation. Significance Statement Spectra of meridional velocity in the central equatorial Indian Ocean from in situ measurements show two distinct peaks in the biweekly period band with different spatial structures. This study uses an ocean general circulation model to show that variability in these two bands is driven by surface winds that are themselves spatially structured. The variability in both period bands is consistent with linear mixed Rossby–gravity wave theory, but the spatial structures, including meridional trapping scale, vertical wavelength, and zonal distribution of energy, are very different.

Causal Forcing Analysis on the Low-Frequency Variations of Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Kuroshio Extension Region

Abstract The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region may be affected by two factors: EKE in the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) region and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Previous studies reported that the Kuroshio path variations south of Japan may affect the low-frequency variability of the KE jet and related EKE, but the linear correlation between these phenomena derived from long time series is low and not significant, implying that the linkage between EKE in the KLM and KE regions is still unclear. Besides, whether NPGO has a causal effect on the KE EKE remains under debate. In this study, we investigate the causal forcing of the KLM EKE and NPGO on the KE EKE using the convergent cross mapping (CCM) approach based on satellite sea surface height observations. The analysis shows that the KLM EKE affects the EKE only in the KE upstream area (west of 146°E), with no significant causal effect on the EKE in the downstream area; the NPGO plays, instead, a remarkable role on the EKE in both areas. The effect of the KLM EKE on the KE EKE is found to depend on the Kuroshio latitudinal position over the Izu Ridge. Changes in the KLM EKE affect the downstream advection of eddies and induce changes in the Kuroshio position over the ridge, which cause different EKE levels in the KE upstream region. The NPGO affects the KE EKE through the westward propagation of sea surface height anomalies remotely forced by wind stress anomalies associated with the North Pacific Oscillation.

Prediction Skill and Practical Predictability Depending on the Initial Atmospheric States in S2S Forecasts

Abstract The hypothesis that predictability depends on the atmospheric state in the planetary-scale low-frequency variability in boreal winter was examined. We first computed six typical weather patterns from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere using self-organizing map (SOM) and k-clustering analysis. Next, using 11 models from the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) operational and reforecast archive, we computed each model’s climatology as a function of lead time to evaluate model bias. Although the forecast bias depends on the model, it is consistently the largest when the forecast begins from the atmospheric state with a blocking-like pattern in the eastern North Pacific. Moreover, the ensemble-forecast spread based on S2S multimodel forecast data was compared with empirically estimated Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) parameters based on reanalysis data. The multimodel mean ensemble-forecast spread was correlated with the diffusion tensor norm; they are large for the cases when the atmospheric state started from a cluster with a blocking-like pattern. As the multimodel mean is expected to substantially reduce model biases and may approximate the predictability inherent in nature, we can summarize that the atmospheric state corresponding to the cluster was less predictable than others. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to examine the performance of week-to-month forecasts by analyzing multimodel forecast results. We established the hypothesis proposed by the previous studies that the accuracy of forecasts depended on the atmospheric state. Together with the data-based method on predictability, an atmospheric state with the anticyclone anomaly in the eastern North Pacific exhibited low predictability. Our results provide a method to foresee the ability of week-to-month forecasts.

Drivers of low-frequency Sahel precipitation variability: comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble means with observations

Phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) both grossly underestimate the magnitude of low-frequency Sahel rainfall variability; but unlike CMIP5, CMIP6 mean historical precipitation does not even correlate with observed multi-decadal variability. We demarcate realms of simulated physical processes that may induce differences between these ensembles and prevent both from explaining observations. We partition all influences on simulated Sahelian precipitation variability into (1) teleconnections from sea surface temperature (SST); (2) atmospheric and (3) oceanic variability internal to the climate system; (4) the SST response to external radiative forcing; and (5) the “fast” (not mediated by SST) precipitation response to radiative forcing. In a vast improvement from previous ensembles, the mean spectral power of Sahel rainfall in CMIP6 atmosphere-only simulations is consistent with observed low-frequency variance. Low-frequency variability is dominated by teleconnections from observed global SST, and the fast response only hurts the performance of simulated precipitation. We estimate that the strength of simulated teleconnections is consistent with observations using the previously-established North Atlantic Relative Index (NARI) to approximate the role of global SST, and apply this relationship to the coupled ensembles to infer that both fail to explain low-frequency historical Sahel rainfall variability mostly because they cannot explain the observed combination of forced and internal variability in North Atlantic SST. Yet differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 in mean Sahel precipitation and its correlation with observations do not derive from differences in NARI, but from the fast response or the role of other SST patterns.

Compound marine heatwaves and low sea surface salinity extremes over the tropical Pacific Ocean

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and low sea surface salinity (SSS) events can significantly impact marine ecosystems and dynamic systems, respectively. Compound marine extreme events can cause more significant damage than individual extreme events. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of compound MHW-low SSS extremes are not well understood. Daily reanalysis data were used to identify the basic patterns of compound extreme events and their drivers. These events mainly occur over the central tropical Pacific Ocean during record-breaking El Niño events. This analysis revealed that extreme sea surface warming associated with El Niño drives increased convection, which subsequently leads to increased rainfall. It ultimately causes extreme sea surface freshening. This analysis highlights the significance of air-sea interactions and low-frequency climate variability in shaping compound extreme events.

The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden.

Acoustic travel-time variability observed on a 150-km radius tomographic array in the Canada Basin during 2016-2017.

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing dramatic changes in response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The 2016-2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment was conducted to assess the effects of the changes in the sea ice and ocean structure in the Beaufort Gyre on low-frequency underwater acoustic propagation and ambient sound. An ocean acoustic tomography array with a radius of 150 km that consisted of six acoustic transceivers and a long vertical receiving array measured the impulse responses of the ocean at a variety of ranges every four hours using broadband signals centered at about 250 Hz. The peak-to-peak low-frequency travel-time variability of the early, resolved ray arrivals that turn deep in the ocean was only a few tens of milliseconds, roughly an order of magnitude smaller than observed in previous tomographic experiments at similar ranges, reflecting the small spatial scale and relative sparseness of mesoscale eddies in the Canada Basin. The high-frequency travel-time fluctuations were approximately 2 ms root-mean-square, roughly comparable to the expected measurement uncertainty, reflecting the low internal-wave energy level. The travel-time spectra show increasing energy at lower frequencies and enhanced semidiurnal variability, presumably due to some combination of the semidiurnal tides and inertial variability.

Independent mechanisms for processing local contour features and global shape.

The visual system can extract the global shape of an object from highly variable local contour features. We propose that there are separate systems for processing local and global shape. These systems are independent and process information differently. Global shape encoding accurately represents the form of low-frequency contour variations, whereas the local system encodes only summary statistics that describe typical features of high-frequency elements. In Experiments 1-4, we tested this hypothesis by obtaining same/different judgments for shapes that differed in local features, global features, or both. We found low sensitivity to changed local features that shared the same summary statistics, and no advantage in sensitivity for shapes that differed in both local and global features compared to shapes that differed only in global features. This sensitivity difference persisted when physical contour differences were equated and when shape feature sizes and exposure durations were increased. In Experiment 5, we compared sensitivity to sets of local contour features with matched or unmatched statistical properties. Sensitivity was higher for unmatched statistical properties than for properties sampled from the same statistical distribution. Experiment 6 directly tested our hypothesis of independent local and global systems using visual search. Search based on either local or global shape differences produced pop-out effects, but search for a target based on a conjunction of local and global differences required focal attention. These findings support the notion that separate mechanisms process local and global contour information and that the kinds of information these mechanisms encode are fundamentally different. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Zonally Asymmetric Multidecadal Variability of the North Pacific Subtropical Fronts

Abstract The North Pacific Subtropical Fronts (STFs), accompanied by the eastward-flowing subtropical countercurrent, stretch from the western Pacific Ocean to the north of Hawaii. Previous work has detected different trends of the frontal position and strength between the western STF (WSTF; west of 180°) and the eastern STF (ESTF; east of 180°) in the past 40 years. However, whether the basin-scale STFs have zonally asymmetric variability on multidecadal time scales and what drives that change remain to be quantified. Our recent work has shown that the multidecadal variability of the WSTF is controlled by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation via the subtropical mode water variability. The present study proposes that the variability of ESTF is modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) via the central mode water (CMW) variability, quasi synchronously on multidecadal time scales. During a PDO positive phase, the enhanced midlatitude westerly winds in the central North Pacific increase the local surface buoyancy loss and deepen the winter mixed layer, which enlarges the CMW formation and thus increases its volume. Meanwhile, accompanied by the southward-migrated outcropping zone, the main body of CMW shifts equatorward. In response to such CMW changes, the ESTF strengthens and shifts equatorward correspondingly. Conversely, during a PDO negative phase, the weakened midlatitude westerly winds in the central North Pacific decrease the local surface buoyancy loss and shallow the winter mixed layer, which reduces the CMW formation and thus decreases its volume. Meanwhile, accompanied by northward-migrated outcropping zone, the main body of CMW shifts poleward. In response to such CMW changes, the ESTF weakens and shifts poleward correspondingly. Our results reveal that the dominant factor controlling the low-frequency variability of the WSTF and ESTF is different, which renews the conventional picture that all of the STFs behave symmetrically, with important implications for the North Pacific climate variability.

Rectifying low-frequency variability in future climate sea surface temperature simulations: are corrections for extreme change scenarios realistic?

Most procedures for redressing systematic bias in climate modeling are calibrated using current climate observations, and perform well. However, their performance in the future climate remains uncertain as no observations exist to compare against. In this context, we use the current and future climate outputs of an ultra-high resolution of Community Earth System Model (UHR-CESM) as the representative truth and bias correct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) simulations of eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models over the Niño 3.4 region. A time-frequency bias correction approach is used to correct for bias in distributional, trend, and spectral attributes present in the models. This results in a near perfect power spectrum of the bias corrected current climate model simulations. Considering all correction procedures remain unchanged into the future, the overall representation of the corrected SST simulations shows improvement with consistency across models for the doubled CO2 scenario, but higher variability and lower consistency in the quadrupled CO2 concentration scenario.