Low-carbon Energy Sources Research Articles

Understanding the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation in Rwanda

The primary energy sources used in Rwanda include solar energy, methane gas, diesel and heavy oil generators, hydropower plants, and thermal power plants. Hydropower is a significant renewable low-carbon energy source, generates more than 45% of Rwanda's total electricity. It requires water to produce energy, therefore any modifications to the natural hydrological cycle brought on by climate change have an impact and will continue to have an influence on the production of electricity. Hydropower is sorrow from an increase in extreme weather occurrences and erosion. Therefore, by altering flow (discharge) and head, climate change may have an effect on hydropower. The amount of sediment that is transferred to the reservoir lowers its capacity, and the dry season may result in less water in the reservoir, which has an impact on the hydroelectric power generation process. According to the study, changes in river flow have the greatest impact on how hydropower is affected by climate change. Droughts, seasonal and frequent floods, and greater variability due to climate change are the main contributors. The results show that climate change is likely to have a more pronounced impact on hydropower operations, with reductions in water availability due to climate change expected to result in reduced power generation. Additionally, existing dams will be located in areas at high risk of flooding due to climate change. In order to ensure electricity availability throughout the year, especially during the hot or dry seasons when discharges are often low, the required changes should be performed. These adjustments include using alternate backup sources and storage systems. Water consumers can be conserved and optimized through water resource management, drought resistance, flood protection, and conservation.

State-of-the-art review on the steel decarbonization technologies based on process system engineering perspective

Decarbonization of steel manufacturing requires policies to reduce carbon emissions through technology development, renewable energy use, carbon pricing mechanisms, research and development, circular economy practices, energy management systems, and collaboration between industry, government, and academia. This policy assertion seeks to encourage the development and implementation of technologies that can reduce carbon emissions in steel manufacturing processes, such as hydrogen-based steelmaking, carbon capture and utilization, and energy-efficient processes. Low-carbon technologies, renewable energy, a carbon price, material efficiency, and collaboration are key strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the steel sector. Low-carbon energy sources such as wind and solar can be used to power the steelmaking process, while carbon pricing can reduce industrial emissions. To reduce emissions, stakeholders from all stages of the value chain must collaborate to develop decarbonization strategies, such as funding R&D, exchanging knowledge, and offering carbon-cutting incentives. This review provides a conceptual design approach proposed for the successful analysis of steel decarbonization potential from a process system engineering perspective. Challenges and opportunities are also been highlighted with respect to energy, economics, and environmental aspect. Technologies still require more advancement in terms of operation and energy intensity as technical and economic aspects are found superior to conventional technologies.

Challenges and opportunities for zeolites in biomass upgrading: Impediments and future directions

The urgency to reduce CO2 emissions and energy costs has driven the investment in solar and wind technologies. However, these sources of energy are intermittent and heavily influenced by weather conditions. To overcome this limitation, it is necessary to combine electricity production with a stable and low-carbon energy source, and biofuels have emerged as a promising option. Nonetheless, other challenges have arisen, including the oversupply of glycerol. To address this issue, one of the most sought-after solutions is to convert glycerol into value-added products, such as polymer precursors, solvents, and fuel additives. The production of these products involves catalytic reactions such as oxidation, reduction, reforming, dehydration, acetalization, and carbonylation. Here, we review the latest advances in the conversion of glycerol into value-added products using zeolite-based catalysts and discuss the remaining challenges in this field.

Decarbonization of the national energy industry in the context of the latest geopolitical crisis

Aim. The presente study aims to evaluate the relevance of decarbonization of the Russian energy industry in the context of the latest crisis; to identify emerging and prospective problems; to determine their prerequisites and ways to overcome them.Tasks. The authors systematize mechanisms available before the crisis aimed at supporting the development of renewable energy sources (RES) in Russia and assess the extent of their functioning at the time of writing; determine how today’s economic challenges will affect the introduction of new low-carbon energy sources; evaluate the possibility of engaging the population in the decarbonization of the energy industry through an in-depth interview of an expert group.Methods. This study uses analysis of the regulatory framework and other industry sources and in-depth interview of an expert group to identify negative trends in the further reduction of the carbon footprint in the energy industry and investigate the prerequisites for the engagement of the Russian population in decarbonization.Results. On the way to reducing the carbon footprint in the energy sector, new renewable energy facilities will face the first difficulties. The postponement of the 2022 selection of RES projects for one year and the provision of a non-penalized two-year delay in the introduction of RES have actually shifted the commissioning of new capacities by three years. The departure of localized producers of wind turbines contributes to a shift in the timing and a decrease in the volume of commissioning of new wind farms in Russia. The traditional energy sector faces similar problems due to the withdrawal of major gas turbine manufacturers from the market. A survey of the representatives of the expert community (industry specialists) showed that experts as household consumers of electric and thermal energy consider the problem of ecology to be still relevant. They are generally positive about the further development of low-carbon generation and are ready to support the decarbonization of the energy industry, but with no more than a 10-20 % surcharge to the existing tariff.Conclusions. Compliance with the global trend of energy transition for Russia presents multiple challenges in the context of the latest crisis. Withdrawal of the manufacturers of high-tech equipment from the market, reduction of green energy exports, and expiration of green international certificates have significantly slowed the pace of decarbonization. However, a survey of the expert community of industry specialists shows that the development of environmentally responsible consumption of electric and thermal energy in Russia can attract green investment in the country’s energy sector from the population.

Energy Transition and the Economy: A Review Article

The global energy sector is in a period of transition, during which time it is expected that renewable and low-carbon energy sources, such as wind and solar, will replace traditional fossil fuels, including oil, gas, and coal. The energy transition is happening not only to limit the environmental impact of fossil fuel production and consumption but also to ensure energy security, reliability, access, affordability, and sustainability. The importance of the energy transition has been amplified by recent events, notably the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Economic, financial, and trade sanctions against Russia, and in particular its oil and gas industry, have forced countries to find new suppliers in the short term, but also to investigate new and more sustainable sources to guarantee long-term energy security. Given the importance of energy, it is perhaps not unexpected that there is a considerable body of recent academic literature, particularly over the last 4–5 years, studying what industries, consumers, governments, and markets can do to help bring about a faster energy transition. In this paper, we provide a review of the literature that pertains to the economic aspects of the energy transition. While our initial search of the literature is targeted at uncovering all relevant articles on the subject, we focus most of our discussion on the most influential articles in prominent journals and articles published in this journal—Energies. This review is intended to help identify active topics and potential research gaps and provide future direction, so we hope it will prove useful to the readers and authors interested in this topic.

The application of Monte Carlo modelling to quantify in situ hydrogen and associated element production in the deep subsurface

The subsurface production, accumulation, and cycling of hydrogen (H2), and cogenetic elements such as sulfate (SO42-) and the noble gases (e.g., 4He, 40Ar) remains a critical area of research in the 21st century. Understanding how these elements generate, migrate, and accumulate is essential in terms of developing hydrogen as an alternative low-carbon energy source and as a basis for helium exploration which is urgently needed to meet global demand of this gas used in medical, industrial, and research fields. Beyond this, understanding the subsurface cycles of these compounds is key for investigating chemosynthetically-driven habitability models with relevance to the subsurface biosphere and the search for life beyond Earth. The challenge is that to evaluate each of these critical element cycles requires quantification and accurate estimates of production rates. The natural variability and intersectional nature of the critical parameters controlling production for different settings (local estimates), and for the planet as a whole (global estimates) are complex. To address this, we propose for the first time a Monte Carlo based approach which is capable of simultaneously incorporating both random and normally distributed ranges for all input parameters. This approach is capable of combining these through deterministic calculations to determine both the most probable production rates for these elements for any given system as well as defining upper and lowermost production rates as a function of probability and the most critical variables. This approach, which is applied to the Kidd Creek Observatory to demonstrate its efficacy, represents the next-generation of models which are needed to effectively incorporate the variability inherent to natural systems and to accurately model H2, 4He, 40Ar, SO42- production on Earth and beyond.

Open-Circuit Switch Fault Diagnosis and Accommodation of a Three-Level Interleaved Buck Converter for Electrolyzer Applications

This article proposes a novel open-circuit switch fault diagnosis method (FDM) for a three-level interleaved buck converter (TLIBC) in a hydrogen production system based on the water electrolysis process. The control algorithm is suitably modified to ensure the same hydrogen production despite the fault. The TLIBC enables the interfacing of the power source (i.e., low-carbon energy sources) and electrolyzer while driving the hydrogen production of the system in terms of current or voltage. On one hand, the TLIBC can guarantee a continuity of operation in case of power switch failures because of its interleaved architecture. On the other hand, the appearance of a power switch failure may lead to a loss of performance. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately locate the failure in the TLIBC and implement a fault-tolerant control strategy for performance purposes. The proposed FDM relies on the comparison of the shape of the input current and the pulse width modulation (PWM) gate signal of each power switch. Finally, an experimental test bench of the hydrogen production system is designed and realized to evaluate the performance of the developed FDM and fault-tolerant control strategy for TLIBC during post-fault operation. It is implemented with a real-time control based on a MicroLabBox dSPACE (dSPACE, Paderborn, Germany) platform combined with a TI C2000 microcontroller. The obtained simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed FDM can detect open-circuit switch failures in one switching period and reconfigure the control law accordingly to ensure the same current is delivered before the failure.

Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emissions from China's civil aviation industry to 2050

To mitigate aviation's carbon emissions of the aviation industry, the following steps are vital: accurately quantifying the carbon emission path by considering uncertainty factors, including transportation demand in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period; identifying gaps between this path and emission reduction targets; and providing mitigation measures. Some mitigation measures that can be employed by China's civil aviation industry include the gradual realization of large-scale production of sustainable aviation fuels and transition to 100% sustainable and low-carbon sources of energy. This study identified the key driving factors of carbon emissions by using the Delphi Method and set scenarios that consider uncertainty, such as aviation development and emission reduction policies. A backpropagation neural network and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify the carbon emission path. The study results show that China's civil aviation industry can effectively help the country achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, to achieve the net-zero carbon emissions goal of global aviation, China needs to reduce its emissions by approximately 82%–91% based on the optimal emission scenario. Thus, under the international net-zero target, China's civil aviation industry will face significant pressure to reduce its emissions. The use of sustainable aviation fuels is the best way to reduce aviation emissions by 2050. Moreover, in addition to the application of sustainable aviation fuel, it will be necessary to develop a new generation of aircraft introducing new materials and upgrading technology, implement additional carbon absorption measures, and make use of carbon trading markets to facilitate China's civil aviation industry's contribution to reduce climate change.

Petrographic, mineralogical, morphological and organic constraints of the Permian shaly-coal in the Tuli Basin of Limpopo-Area Karoo-Aged basin, South Africa: Implication for potential gas generation

The transition to a low-carbon energy source from coal has become imperative to mitigating the escalating climate change crisis. This study aims to investigate the organic-rich shale core samples of the Limpopo-Area Karoo Basin, retrieved from the borehole at depth 480–580 m. These samples were subjected to petrographic, mineralogical, morphological, and kerogen-type analysis to investigate potentials for shale gas generation. The petrographic analysis reveals maceral group mainly comprised of vitrinite group with some liptinite and inertinite and mineral compositions. The preponderance of pyrite framboids (1.6–12%) indicate redox of FeS2 as a precursor to methane gas generation in anoxic condition. The x-ray diffractometer (XRD) reveals the presence of quartz, albite, microcline, dolomite, pyrite and clay minerals which alluded to the mineral composition indicated by the petrographic analysis. The clay mineral component consists of montmorillonite, illite, chlorite, and mixed layered illite/smectite (I/S) in the Madzaringwe samples. The representative scanning electron microscopy-Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDX) images of the studied shales depict a combination of organic-matter, groundmass mineral, micro-fracture pore structures reflecting polyframboidal pyrite and carbonate dissolution morphology. The total organic carbon (TOC) contents averaging at 47 wt%, indicating an excellent source rock. The Rock-Eval 6 programmed pyrolysis samples showed S2 value (15.25–16.47 mg HC/g rock) with an average of 15.69 mg HC/g rock and Hydrogen index (HI) (34.0–37.0 mg HC/g TOC) indicating a Type-III Kerogen dominance prone to gas generation. The shale showed Tmax values (464–470 °C) averaging at 467.2 °C, yielding a thermally mature condensate wet-gas. This study reveals that the Permian carbonaceous rock tends to generate gas which can be hosted mainly by the organic matter pore structures, inorganic and micro-fracture pore structures.

Small modular reactors: An assessment of workforce requirements and operating costs

In the past seven years, global warming discourse has revolved around restricting temperature increases to under 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by utilizing such low-carbon energy sources as nuclear, solar, and wind energy. However, the use of nuclear energy for electricity generation via conventional nuclear power plants (NPPs) has met stiff challenges due to high capital costs, thereby constraining newcomer nations. A solution contending high capital costs for NPPs is the introduction of small modular reactors (SMRs) that has garnered attention over the past ten years because of their lower initial capital investment, scalability, and ease of deployment for less developed electricity grid and small areas of low electricity demand. In this study, the workforce requirements and salaries component for operating workers of 300 MWe integral Pressurized Water Reactors (iPWR) SMR is modeled and assessed using an upgraded International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Power Human Resources (NPHR) modeling tool from 2018 to 2055. The results show that at a discount rate of 10% an average annual salary payment, the net present cost (NPC) for the operating workers is approximately 431 million USD with a standard deviation of 8%. Moreover, the results further show that at the end of themodeling period and considering 43 function areas in a typical NPP, the top three functions to be recruited and contributing to the total domestic workers for a typical newcomer nuclear nation are Maintenance/Construction (18.17%), Operations (9.02%), and Management (8.22%) workers. The results enable the estimation of human resource requirements to operate an SMR over its life cycle, which in turn enables informed budgeting for human resources.

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

Resource assessment of the Cerro Blanco geothermal system

Over the past three decades, studies have provided important information on the current volcanic activity and the associated thermal anomalies spread over the southern Puna in Argentina, as in the Cerro Blanco Volcanic Complex case. The volcanic-hosted geothermal systems have received critical attention since they are low-carbon energy sources and are frequently linked to geothermal lithium deposits. A key issue in developing productive projects is quantifying the thermal resource because this value determines investor interest. Our research aims to estimate the power capacity of the Cerro Blanco geothermal system in terms of MWe. Two methods were employed: a conductive cooling of the magmatic chamber and the classical volumetric method, coupled with Montecarlo simulations. After a rigorous analysis of recently published data, a 3D structural mapping supported by a series of analogue models, combined with a deep fluid compositional reconstruction, was employed to estimate the reservoir temperature and to support the resource assessment. Our experimental calderas show that the collapse onset is controlled by a combination of internal reverse faults and peripheral ring faults; concentric inner faults propagate outward from the caldera structure's central part. The 3D structural mapping highlights that the main structures of the Cerro Blanco geothermal system constrain the reservoir area. The estimation obtained by the magmatic heat transfer method indicates that Cerro Blanco might produce 6 MWe per km2 at 50% confidence and that it hosts a total power capacity of 127 MWe. Also, it was calculated that there are >18 km2 above 200 °C at 2 km depth. By the volumetric method, a power capacity of 6 MWe and 32 MWe at 90% and 50% confidence were estimated, respectively. These results should be interpreted cautiously considering that, for example, 1% of the unknown recovery factor correlates with 4.1 MWe in the power capacity. These estimations do not confirm the existence of the geothermal resource but raise encouraging results. Moreover, they become relevant because the Cerro Blanco geothermal system has few thermal manifestations and might be considered a blind geothermal system.

The Nexus between GHGs Emissions and Clean Growth: Empirical Evidence from Canadian Provinces

Canada is one of the most emission-intensive economies in the world and the big challenge for Canada and its provinces is in how to mitigate the GHGs while keeping the same pace of economic growth. This paper’s main objective is to examine the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions and clean growth using cross-sectional data for Canadian provinces from 1995 to 2019. Based on the results of the cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and Hausman test, the study applied the pooled mean group (PMG) estimators. For the robustness of the results, the study also provided the results of augmented mean group (AMG) estimators. The results of Westerlund’s test show that the variables of the estimated models are cointegrated in the long run except in the case of the carbon intensity (GHGs/Energy) model, while no short-run relationship was observed. The main findings of both estimators show that an inverted U-shaped relationship exists in the case of the carbon intensity model. In contrast, as expected, a U-shaped relationship exists in the case of the energy intensity model. The results also confirmed that Canada reduced its GHGs emissions after 2005 and that GHGs emissions and energy intensity are decreasing over time. At the province level, only Alberta has no long-run relationship as regards carbon intensity and energy intensity, while Nova Scotia and British Colombia have no long-run relationship as regards energy intensity. In terms of tipping points, Canada is in the increasing phase of the inverted U-shaped curve in the case of carbon intensity, while in the decreasing phase of the U-shaped curve in the case of energy intensity. There is a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions per capita at the provincial level compared to the 2005 base levels. It is imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per capita in Canada and its provinces over time by gradually rolling out energy-saving incentives rather than by using more efficient energy-saving technology. The government of Canada should shift towards low-carbon energy and renewable sources which emit fewer greenhouse gases per unit of energy produced.

Design and Analysis of a Fuel Cell and Batteries in Energy Production for Electric Vehicle

The world's most economically developed countries are facing an energy crisis caused by geopolitical instability, rising energy costs, global stock disruptions, and a shift towards low-carbon energy sources that has yet to be fully realized. Electrification of the transportation industry offers the advantages of increased energy efficiency and reduced local pollutants. Electric Vehicles (EVs) are environmentally friendly because they reduce fossil fuels usage even zero consumption, need fewer maintenance requirements, and lower operating costs than the vehicles powered by gasoline or diesel. However, this study focuses on comparing various energy management strategies (EMS) for a backup energy supply system for EVs. The hybrid power system (HPS) considered in this study includes DC-DC and DC-AC synchronous converters, as well as supercapacitors, batteries, and fuel cells. The EMS analyzed includes state machine control, classical proportional-integral control, equivalent consumption minimization, frequency decoupling, rule-based fuzzy logic, and fuzzy logic control. The HPS's efficiency, hydrogen fuel, supercapacitor or battery state of charge levels, and overall performance are evaluated as primary efficiency criteria. Additionally, the HPS not only increases system energy but also reduces the number of pack batteries required. This study designs and constructs the combined power systems to enhance EV power schemes with rechargeable battery power supplies. The results show that a 6-kW fuel cell hybrid increases the power system capacity to 408 kWh. Moreover, a novel method based on wavelet transforms of the instantaneous power of each energy source is used to quantify the stressors on each energy source that impact its life cycle. To validate all analyses and performance, a simulation model and an experimental test bench are created. Finally, simulation results demonstrate a synchronous converter with a 6-kW output power and 96% efficiency, validating the optimization results.

Энергетические инициативы Шанхайской организации сотрудничества

Sustainable energy supply and the more complex concept of energy security that has developed are a condition and guarantee for ensuring economic growth. The achievement of this task seems possible in the current situation, provided that joint efforts are combined within the framework of integration associations. For Russia, the SCO is chosen as a reliable outpost – a circle of friendly states, the basis of relations with each of which is many years of experience in reliable cooperation. For example, in order to ensure the full realization of Russia’s export potential, on the one hand, and to meet the growing energy demand from Asian partners, on the other hand, programs are being developed and projects are being implemented to create appropriate trunk transport and energy corridors. Thus, in the eastern direction, the construction of the Power of Siberia main gas pipeline has been completed, the design of the Power of Siberia‑2 main pipeline is underway, work continues to increase the capacity of the transport infrastructure, and the task is to modernize and expand the main infrastructure. Recognizing the need to guarantee the right of all states and peoples to energy security while providing access to reliable, sustainable and modern energy sources, and taking into account current energy trends in the use of clean and low-carbon energy sources, the SCO, in a statement issued in 2022, laid the foundation for its own energy course the common and complementary benefits of fossil fuels and clean energy sources, while taking into account the conditions and characteristics of each state. Ways and directions for expanding the energy cooperation of the member states of this integration association, taking into account the identified priorities, will be studied in this article.

Forecasting China's natural gas external dependence under the "Dual Carbon" goals by a new grey model.

As a low-carbon and cost-effective clean energy source, natural gas plays an important role in achieving China's "Dual Carbon" target. In this article, a new three-parameter discrete grey prediction model is used to simulate and forecast the production and consumption of natural gas in China from the perspective of background value optimization. Then the minimum mean absolute percentage error as the objective function from the perspective of fractional order cumulative generation in the real number field. Last, a fractional order in the real number field three parameter discrete grey prediction model TDGM(1,1,z,r(R)) is constructed under the condition of optimal background value. Then we use the model to simulate and predict China's Natural Gas External Dependence (NGED) under the "Dual Carbon" target. The results show that the performance of the new model is better than that of the traditional model GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1), thus proving the practicability and effectiveness of the new model. Put forward relevant policy suggestions according to the prediction results of China's NGED, and provide decision-making reference for the Chinese government to achieve the "Dual Carbon" goals.

Predictive Assessment of the Potential Electric Vehicle Market and the Effects of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Russia

In recent decades, the global adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, which may contribute to carbon emission reduction due to the use of alternative energy sources has stirred particular interest. Despite a significant body of scientific literature in Russia about electric vehicle adoption, the approaches used in papers lack quantitative estimates of the Russian market's potential. This paper aims to fill this gap as it provides a long-term electric vehicle market forecast in Russia as well as assesses the environmental effects. The following hypotheses are tested: (1) the Bass model is applicable to predict the long-term electric vehicle diffusion process in Russia; (2) the transition to electric cars will have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emission reduction. The Bass model, a widely used tool for predicting the innovation diffusion process, serves as a methodological base for the research. The long-term forecast of the Russian electric car fleet includes several scenarios. The most realistic scenario suggests that the Russian electric vehicle market is estimated to grow, reaching 5.62 million units by 2060. Furthermore, the environmental effects associated with electric vehicle adoption were identified. Two scenarios for changes in the energy generation structure were taken into consideration. The expected carbon emission reduction is estimated to reach 14.08 million tons in CO2-eq. if an accelerated transition to low-carbon energy sources is implemented, the baseline scenario suggests 12.86 million tons in CO2-eq. carbon emission reduction. The estimates of the transport diffusion in Russia as well as of environmental effects associated with this process form the theoretical value of the study. The practical significance of the study suggests developing electric vehicle demand forecasts that might be utilized while implementing measures to achieve goals stated in the Strategy of Social and Economic Development with a Low Level of Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050 in the Russian Federation.

Türkiye, Japonya ve Güney Kore Nükleer Güç Santrali Edinme Süreçlerinin Karşılaştırılması

Enerjide sürekliliği sağlayabilmek ve dışa bağımlılığı en aza indirebilmek için ülkelerin birden çok enerji kaynağını kurulu sistemler halinde yönetebilmesi gerekmektedir. Nükleer enerji düşük karbon salımlı bir enerji kaynağı olması sebebiyle çağımızın iklim değişikliği sorunuyla mücadelede kilit rol oynama potansiyeline sahip bir enerji türü olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Nükleer santraller kullandığı yakıt kütlesine oranla yüksek miktarda enerji açığa çıkarabilmesi, hava olaylarından etkilenmeden devamlı olarak enerji üretebilmesi ve elektrik üretim maliyetleri konusundaki öngörülebilirliği gibi kendine özgü özellikleri ile ülkeler tarafından tercih edilmektedir. Türkiye, Japonya ve Güney Kore nükleer güç santrali teknolojilerine sahip olabilmek için erken bir dönemde ve yaklaşık olarak aynı zaman diliminde adımlar atmaya başlayan ülkelerdendir. Japonya ve Güney Kore günümüzde kurulu birçok nükleer santrali ve geliştirmekte olduğu kendi tasarımlarıyla çeşitli alanlarda ulusal ve uluslararası projeler yürütmekte olan iki ülke konumundadır. Türkiye’de başlatılan girişimler için süreç aynı şekilde ilerlememiş ve yapılması planlanan ilk santralin inşaatına 2010’lu yıllarda başlanabilmiştir. Bu çalışmada nükleer güç santrali teknolojilerini elde etme süreçleri birbirine yakın zamanlarda başlamış olan bu üç ülkenin faaliyet süreçleri kronolojik bir düzende ele alınmış ve zaman içerisinde atılan adımlar karşılaştırılmıştır. Türkiye için mevcut durum değerlendirilerek geleceğe yönelik önerilere yer verilmiştir.

Estimating the Effects of Economic Complexity and Technological Innovations on CO2 Emissions: Policy Instruments for N-11 Countries

Every year, the problem of environmental degradation becomes more severe globally. It is widely believed that technological innovation and economic complexity are understood as structural transformations toward a more sophisticated and knowledge-based means of production as a viable way to fight against climate change. However, the studies integrating these two elements into the same environmental policy framework are still scant. With this in view, this study investigates the dynamic linkage between economic complexity, technological innovations, economic growth, and nonrenewable energy on CO2 emissions in the N-11 nations. This study uses data from 1980 to 2020. It applies the recent method of cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL). The cointegration method shows a strong association among the variables. The findings of the CS-ARDL show that technological innovations are negatively related to environmental degradation, while nonrenewable energy deteriorates the environment by escalating CO2 emissions. This study fails to validate the EKC in the N-11 nations. In addition, economic complexity is helping these economies to achieve environmental sustainability by lowering environmental pollution. Based on the findings, this work recommends that the N-11 countries restructure their industrial sectors with low-carbon energy sources. For this purpose, these countries should increase their research and development budgets. This will help in launching environmentally friendly energy sources in their economic development model.

Multi-step prediction of main pump leakage in nuclear power plants with an additive model

With the global demand of clean and low-carbon emission energy sources, safety in the nuclear power industry has gained widespread attention. The accurate and timely long-term fault prognostics of critical equipment in nuclear power plants (NPPs) helps to effectively schedule maintenance, thus reducing operation and maintenance costs while ensuring safety. Unpredictable future load and operations make long-term prediction of time series data in NPPs quite challenging. In this study, we proposed a framework for multi-step prediction based on an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm, which decomposed complex time series data into several components with simple trends. The useful signal and noise in the components were then divided by a relative ratio method. Candidate prediction models from the model library were trained and tuned on the signal-dominated components. The appropriate model was selected for prediction according to the characteristics of each component signal, and the prediction results were summed and smoothed with an additive model. The proposed method, noted as the denoised EMD method using an additive method (EMD-AM), was applied to the leakage prediction at shaft seals in the reactor coolant pump (RCP) of five different NPPs. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) were selected to determine the prediction accuracy and uncertainty. Compared with EMD-AM and EMD method using long short-term memory (EMD-LSTM), the experimental results show that the denoised EMD-AM has the overall advantage of simplicity and accuracy.