Decarbonization of the national energy industry in the context of the latest geopolitical crisis

Abstract

Aim. The presente study aims to evaluate the relevance of decarbonization of the Russian energy industry in the context of the latest crisis; to identify emerging and prospective problems; to determine their prerequisites and ways to overcome them.Tasks. The authors systematize mechanisms available before the crisis aimed at supporting the development of renewable energy sources (RES) in Russia and assess the extent of their functioning at the time of writing; determine how today’s economic challenges will affect the introduction of new low-carbon energy sources; evaluate the possibility of engaging the population in the decarbonization of the energy industry through an in-depth interview of an expert group.Methods. This study uses analysis of the regulatory framework and other industry sources and in-depth interview of an expert group to identify negative trends in the further reduction of the carbon footprint in the energy industry and investigate the prerequisites for the engagement of the Russian population in decarbonization.Results. On the way to reducing the carbon footprint in the energy sector, new renewable energy facilities will face the first difficulties. The postponement of the 2022 selection of RES projects for one year and the provision of a non-penalized two-year delay in the introduction of RES have actually shifted the commissioning of new capacities by three years. The departure of localized producers of wind turbines contributes to a shift in the timing and a decrease in the volume of commissioning of new wind farms in Russia. The traditional energy sector faces similar problems due to the withdrawal of major gas turbine manufacturers from the market. A survey of the representatives of the expert community (industry specialists) showed that experts as household consumers of electric and thermal energy consider the problem of ecology to be still relevant. They are generally positive about the further development of low-carbon generation and are ready to support the decarbonization of the energy industry, but with no more than a 10-20 % surcharge to the existing tariff.Conclusions. Compliance with the global trend of energy transition for Russia presents multiple challenges in the context of the latest crisis. Withdrawal of the manufacturers of high-tech equipment from the market, reduction of green energy exports, and expiration of green international certificates have significantly slowed the pace of decarbonization. However, a survey of the expert community of industry specialists shows that the development of environmentally responsible consumption of electric and thermal energy in Russia can attract green investment in the country’s energy sector from the population.