Loss Of Suitable Habitat Research Articles

Save Our Species: A Blueprint for Restoring Butternut (Juglans cinerea) across Eastern North America

Abstract Butternut is a relatively uncommon hardwood tree native to eastern North America. The species’ abundance has declined over the past 50 years, primarily because of an invasive pathogen (Ophiognomonia clavigignenti-juglandacearum [Oc-j]) and loss of suitable habitat for regeneration. Although genetic diversity of butternut is highest along the southern range edge, genetic diversity rangewide is fairly high, except in small and isolated populations. Although there is little evidence for even moderate resistance in native butternut, hybrids with Japanese walnut, a closely related species, display enough tolerance to infection to persist on the landscape and bear abundant nut crops year after year. Cryostorage of native embryogenic axes has yielded promising initial results as a strategy for gene conservation, but additional action is needed to conserve the remaining native gene pool. We describe a strategy for canker-resistance breeding in butternut using naturally occurring hybrids, hybrids in research orchards, and sources of native trees from as many regions as possible. Forest managers are encouraged to find surviving trees and collect seed for planting in suitable habitat to develop actionable knowledge that will enable the restoration of butternut with enough resistance to be self-sustaining on the landscape.

Overview of global status of plastic presence in marine vertebrates.

The presence of plastic in the environment is generating impacts on all habitats and has become a major global problem in marine megafauna. Macroplastics can cause entanglement, ingestion and loss of suitable habitats. In addition to entanglement problems, there is evidence that plastics are entering the food web through ingestion by marine organisms, which could ultimately be affecting humans. Much of the available information on the impact of plastic in biota is scattered and disconnected due to the use of different methodologies. Here, we review the variety of approaches and protocols followed to assess macro- and microplastic ingestion in marine vertebrates such as sea turtles, cetaceans and fishes in order to offer a global overview of their current status. The analysis of 112 studies indicates the highest plastic ingestion in organisms collected in the Mediterranean and Northeast Indian Ocean with significant differences among plastic types ingested by different groups of animals, including differences in colour and the type of prevalent polymers. In sea turtles, the most prevalent types of plastics are white plastics (66.60%), fibres (54.54%) and LDPE polymer (39.09%); in cetaceans, white macro- and microplastics (38.31%), fibres (79.95%) and PA polymer (49.60%); and in fishes, transparent plastics (45.97%), fibres (66.71%) and polyester polymer (36.20%). Overall, clear fibre microplastics are likely the most predominant types ingested by marine megafauna around the globe.

Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Rice paddy fields, considered as a human-made wetland ecosystems, play important roles in food production and ecosystem conservation. Nowadays, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is under severe threat from climate changes, yet there is a shortage of documented information and research on rice production under future climate. Hence, the present study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation in the MD using an ensemble-modelling approach, implemented by biomod2 platform in R software. Rice cultivation occurrence points, eco-physiological and bioclimatic data were utilised to model habitat suitability for rice cultivation under current and future climate, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the year 2050. The ensemble model obtained acceptable accuracy with scores of 0.880, 0.993 and 0.960 for KAPPA, ROC/AUC and TSS, respectively. Simulation results show that the mean loss of suitable land and mean gain of unsuitable land were 31.4% and 64.6%, respectively, for the year 2050 compared to the present. Salinity intrusion, increases in precipitation during rainy season and decreases in precipitation during dry season were key factors driving the loss of suitable habitat. The findings of this study critically support policy makers and planners in developing appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation in response to climate change for sustainable rice cultivation.

Modelling landscape connectivity change for chimpanzee conservation in Tanzania

Chimpanzees, like all great ape species, have experienced a dramatic decline in global numbers during the past decades. The degradation, fragmentation and loss of suitable habitat impede chimpanzee movements, reducing the potential for dispersal and thus population viability. In Tanzania, 90% of the 2000–3000 remaining chimpanzees are found within the Greater Mahale Ecosystem (GME), the majority of which live at low densities outside of national park boundaries. Recent genetic analyses have identified potential boundaries between the northern and southern populations of the GME. Using landscape connectivity modelling, we aimed to clarify population connectivity across this vast ecosystem (>20,000 km2) and assess change over time. We developed habitat suitability models to create an index of habitat selection by chimpanzees and mapped connectivity using circuit theory. Our results suggest that, in recent history (1973), the entire ecosystem was linked by a series of corridors showing a high likelihood of chimpanzee movement. Our analysis also reveals a reduction of connectivity by 2017 impacting the two corridors linking the northern and southern GME. When projected to 2027, areas contributing to connectivity are predicted to continue to decline, threatening all available corridors between the northern and southern GME. By modelling connectivity across time, we were able to identify key areas to focus conservation efforts to maintain population viability within the largest chimpanzee population in Tanzania.

High thematic resolution land use change models refine biodiversity scenarios: A case study with Belgian bumblebees

AbstractAimProjections of biodiversity scenarios often rely solely on climate change to inform species distribution shifts in the future. Land use projections are rarely used due to their unavailability and, when available, are often at coarse spatial and thematic resolutions, making them unsuitable to capture fine scale habitat suitability. This study aims to (a) show how coupled land use change (LUC) models of high thematic resolution (HTR) can be used in species distribution models (SDM), (b) compare the impacts of HTR and low thematic resolution (LTR) explanatory predictors on biodiversity scenarios and (c) assess the impact of species' present area of occupancy on the effect of thematic resolution in SDMs.LocationBelgiumTaxonBumblebees (Bombus)MethodsWe compared species distribution models with 17 land use predictors (HTR) against models with 5 land use predictors (LTR). We modelled the distribution of 17 bumblebee species in Belgium projected until 2035. We examined how model performance, variable importance and projections of distribution change differed depending on the thematic resolution of the land use predictors.ResultsOverall, HTR models performed better than LTR models. LTR models predicted greater extent per species. HTR projected a greater percentage of range gains, and both models projected similar losses of suitable habitat. However, the percentage loss and connectivity of suitable habitats varied differently for HTR and LTR models along a gradient of rare to common species. The HTR models projected greater loss of suitable areas for rare species and less loss for common species compared to LTR models.Main conclusionsThese results illustrate the importance of using ecologically relevant explanatory variables in SDMs, particularly for rare and localized species with specific habitat requirements. The results also indicate the need for large‐scale LUC projections to improve future biodiversity scenarios under climate change and to improve the ability of conservationists and policymakers to use SDM projections.

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

Ruderal Plants Providing Bees Diversity on Rural Properties

Many are the anthropogenic drivers of pollinator decline, but the loss of suitable habitats, among other effects caused by agricultural intensification, deserves special attention. Reduction in the availability of floral resources negatively affects bee communities, compromising bee species composition, foraging behavior, corporal size, and fitness. Our study aims to understand whether the presence of herbaceous plants, acting as foraging sites, next to crops contributes to bee species richness in smallholder rural properties. Bee sampling was performed on smallholder rural properties in the municipality of Guapiara, southern São Paulo state. Individuals who visited the flowers of ruderal plants and crops were collected, using an entomological net, for ten months. A total of 61 bee species were identified, with the highest species richness being sampled in ruderal plant flowers in the three properties studied. Only in one property, ruderal plants hosted a more diverse bee assemblage (Shannon-Weiner and taxonomic diversity indices), but species composition differed from that sampled in crop plants (Jaccard index) in all properties. Thirty-two species were sampled exclusively in ruderal plants, versus 9 only in crops and 20 species in both types of plants. Pollen analysis showed that of the 22 species of bees that were sampled only on flowers of ruderal plants, 9 species carried pollen of tomato and one species of bee carried pollen of kabocha squash. Ruderal plants can provide an alternative food resource for pollinators, enabling these insects to remain in or be attracted to crop areas, where, in addition to visiting such plants, they also visit the cultivated plant flowers. Allowing coexistence between crops and ruderal plants, provided that the issues of plant health are observed, is a simple and low-cost measure for farmers and will provide both economic and environmental benefits.

Idoneidad de hábitat para Swietenia macrophylla en escenarios de cambio climático en México

Los modelos de nicho ecológico permiten determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de las especies. El objetivo del presente estudio fue determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de Swietenia macrophylla King (caoba) en dos escenarios de cambio climático en México. Para la modelación se empleó el algoritmo MaxEnt 3.3.3. Como fuente primaria de información se utilizaron los registros de la especie obtenidos del Inventario Nacional Forestal y de Suelos 2009-2014. Los predictores fueron los raster de 19 variables bioclimáticas de las interpolaciones de datos observados y representativos de 1960-1990, 2050 (promedio de 2041 a 2060) y 2070 (promedio de 2061-2080), los RCP 4.5 y el modelo de circulación general MRI-CGCM3 de Worldclim, con una resolución espacial aproximada a 1 km2 y el raster de edafología de la Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad con una resolución espacial de 90 m2. Para el escenario 2050 se proyecta una pérdida de hábitat idóneo de 39.79%; mientras que para el escenario 2070, esta es de 47.60% respecto al escenario presente. Se concluye que en los dos escenarios las condiciones de hábitat idóneo permanecerán principalmente en los estados de Campeche y Quintana Roo, pero este último conservará cerca de 50% del hábitat idóneo. Los resultados permitirán generar estrategias de conservación, aprovechamiento y mitigación del impacto del cambio climático que aseguren la sobrevivencia y aprovechamiento de la caoba y los ecosistemas en los que habita.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts of Brown Seaweed Sargassum horneri in the Northwest Pacific

Climate-driven shifts of coastal species’ ranges constitute a key factor shaping both the vegetation composition and biodiversity of coastal ecosystems. Although phylogeographic studies relying on genetic data have shed light on the evolutionary history of macroalgae along the Northwest Pacific (NW-Pacific) coast, their distribution dynamics are less understood and require interdisciplinary examination. Here, we used a combination of species distribution models (SDMs) and genetic data to explain the causes of population persistence and genetic differentiation and their consequences for the brown seaweed Sargassum horneri in the NW-Pacific. In this region, the phylogeographic structure of S. horneri was analyzed by screening 72 populations spawning across the entire coastal distribution and obtaining their mtDNA cox3 data. Population genetic structure and SDMs based on paleoclimatic data consistently revealed that southern coasts of the Sea of Japan, North-Pacific-Japan, and the northern part of Okinawa Trough might have served as potential refugia for S. horneri during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, we projected the distribution dynamics of S. horneri under future climate scenarios. The range of S. horneri was predicted to move northward, with a significant loss of suitable habitat, under the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). By contrast, projected range shifts were minimal under the low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6). Furthermore, North-Pacific-Japan was projected to be long-term persistence habitat for S. horneri under future climatic conditions, thus including this area in conservation planning could help mitigate for climate change implications. Our results enable a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the spatio-temporal distribution of macroalgae and how this can inform coastal management and marine conservation planning.

Key Elements of the White-Backed Woodpecker’s (Dendrocopos leucotos lilfordi) Habitat in Its European South-Western Limits

In the last decade, the population of the white-backed woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos lilfordi) (WBW) in Navarre has been reduced mainly due to the loss of suitable habitat for this species from intensive forest management, leading almost to its extinction. This study aimed to identify the key structural elements of breeding habitats of the WBW and analyze their effect on the composition of the saproxylic fungi community within the habitats. In the Special Area of Conservation, namely Quinto Real in Navarre, 20 circular plots (500 m2) and 10 transects (150–300 m) were located inside and outside WBW territories. Within each sample plot, forest structure, deadwood, microhabitats, regeneration, and saproxylic fungi community were studied. The results showed that the key elements in the WBW territories were high trees, high diversity of deadwood (with a high presence of big and late-decay deadwood), high snag volume, and high microhabitat diversity. Although the past management is also evident in the variability of some of those characteristics, this species is well adapted to different structural and compositional conditions of the territory. The saproxylic fungi community was richer among the WBW territories, and in those areas, the presence of Fomes fomentarius was high, compared to non-WBW territories where it was not present. In conclusion, to maintain and protect the studied population, it is necessary to implement sustainable management that guarantees the conservation of the key elements for the WBW territories (structural heterogeneity and high deadwood diversity) in order to increase the suitability of the habitat for WBWs.

Assessing the current and potential future distribution of four invasive forest plants in Minnesota, U.S.A., using mixed sources of data

Invasive plants are an ongoing subject of interest in North American forests, owing to their impacts on forest structure and regeneration, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. An important component of studying and managing forest invaders involves knowing where the species are, or could be, geographically located. Temporal and environmental context, in conjunction with spatially-explicit species occurrence information, can be used to address this need. Here, we predict the potential current and future distributions of four forest plant invaders in Minnesota: common buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica), glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus), garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), and multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora). We assessed the impact of two different climate change scenarios (IPCC RCP 6.0 and 8.5) at two future timepoints (2050s and 2070s) as well as the importance of occurrence data sources on the potential distribution of each species. Our results suggest that climate change scenarios considered here could result in a potential loss of suitable habitat in Minnesota for both buckthorn species and a potential gain for R. multiflora and A. petiolata. Differences in predictions as a result of input occurrence data source were most pronounced in future climate projections.

SOME TECHNIQUES IN MICROPROPAGATION AND BREEDING OF Paphiopedilum spp.

Paphiopedilum orchids are one of the most popular and rare orchid genera sold and exhibited as pot plants and cut flowers. Their wild populations are under the threat of extinction as a result of over-collection and loss of suitable habitats. Reduction in their commercial value through large-scale propagation in vitro is a preferable option to reduce pressure from illegal collection, to attempt at meeting commercial needs and to re-establish these threatened orchid species back into the wild. Although they are commercially propagated via seed germination in vitro, Paphiopedilum are considered to be difficult to propagate in vitro, especially by plant regeneration from tissue culture. This paper aims to provide the most important techniques on Paphiopedilum propagation mainly including plant, cell, tissue and organ culture techniques applied to in vitro propagation of Paphiopedilum and to emphasize the importance of further improving tissue culture protocols from ex vitro-derived explants of mature plants.

Land masses and oceanic currents drive population structure of Heritiera littoralis, a widespread mangrove in the Indo-West Pacific.

Phylogeographic forces driving evolution of sea‐dispersed plants are often influenced by regional and species characteristics, although not yet deciphered at a large spatial scale for many taxa like the mangrove species Heritiera littoralis. This study aimed to assess geographic distribution of genetic variation of this widespread mangrove in the Indo‐West Pacific region and identify the phylogeographic factors influencing its present‐day distribution. Analysis of five chloroplast DNA fragments’ sequences from 37 populations revealed low genetic diversity at the population level and strong genetic structure of H. littoralis in this region. The estimated divergence times between the major genetic lineages indicated that glacial level changes during the Pleistocene epoch induced strong genetic differentiation across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In comparison to the strong genetic break imposed by the Sunda Shelf toward splitting the lineages of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the genetic differentiation between Indo‐Malesia and Australasia was not so prominent. Long‐distance dispersal ability of H. littoralis propagules helped the species to attain transoceanic distribution not only across South East Asia and Australia, but also across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. However, oceanic circulation pattern in the South China Sea was found to act as a barrier creating further intraoceanic genetic differentiation. Overall, phylogeographic analysis in this study revealed that glacial vicariance had profound influence on population differentiation in H. littoralis and caused low genetic diversity except for the refugia populations near the equator which might have persisted through glacial maxima. With increasing loss of suitable habitats due to anthropogenic activities, these findings therefore emphasize the urgent need for conservation actions for all populations throughout the distribution range of H. littoralis.

Impact of climate on ecology and suitable habitat of Garcinia kola heckel in Nigeria

Garcinia kola is an indigenous multipurpose tree species, with significant cultural value and medical benefits, commonly found in the tropical rain forest zone of West and Central Africa. The species has been reported to be over-used and are now classified as vulnerable species close to commercial extinction. Hence, requires immediate conservation action. This study assessed the impact of climate on habitat for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria. Ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the current geographical range and predicts the future distribution of G. kola in Nigeria, using the nineteen (19) bioclimatic environment layers at a 30 ′secs resolution. Two climate models were used (HadGEM2-ES and CNRM-CM5) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios as predictor variables for projections of the potential geographical range of this species for 2050 horizon. Results revealed that about 397,094 km2 area, corresponding to 43.6% of Nigeria land surface, are currently suitable for cultivating G. kola. The future projections showed a significant decrease in area suitable for propagating G. kola under the RCP scenarios used in the two climate models. HadGEM2-ES predicts 27.2 and 26.1% loss of suitable habitats under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by 2050 while CNRM-CM5 projects 26.7 and 35.8% decrease for the corresponding RCPs. Furthermore, the HadGEM2-ES predicts that 149,365 and 159,384 km2 corresponding to 16.4% and 17.5% of total land area will be suitable for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The model results showed that climate change would have significant influence on the future suitable habitat of G. kola in Nigeria and the species is more subservient in moist, humid area and some part of derived savanna zone in Nigeria. The results underscore the significant influences of climate change on the ecology of G. kola. Based on these results, immediate action should be initiated to conserve this valued species and secure their inherent agro-ecosystems services

Trade-offs between wood production and forest grouse habitats in two regions with distinctive landscapes

BackgroundForest management affects the viability of forest grouse populations, causing alterations to habitat quality. At the regional level, common targets for wood harvesting and safeguarding of specific habitats are negotiated between various stakeholders. Analysing potential trade-offs between forest grouse habitats and wood production in the region could support resource-smart decision making.MethodsIn this paper, we compiled trade-off curves represented as production possibility frontiers demonstrating the relationship between forest grouse habitat area and wood removal, using a Finnish forestry dynamics model and the Finnish Multi-Source National Forest Inventory. For the modelling of forest grouse habitats, a landscape-level occurrence model based on nationwide wildlife triangle census data was used. Five alternative forest scenarios in terms of wood removal were compiled for two study areas in Finland representing two different landscape structures.Results and conclusionsResults showed that impacts on forest grouse habitats were case-specific. In the southern study area, increasing the roundwood harvesting rate affected grouse habitats more strongly as forests were already fragmented for other land uses and became more spruce-dominated over time. If the maximum sustainable removal rate was implemented, predicted grouse habitat area was 55% less than in a no-removal scenario. In the eastern study area, a more heavily forested region, the decrease was far lower at 22%. Scenario results were also compared to levels of recorded (business as usual) wood removal and that envisaged by valid regional forestry programmes, and their sustainability in terms of grouse habitat area was discussed. The production possibility frontiers calculated in this study support the evaluation of the loss of suitable habitat caused by different wood harvesting rates, or vice versa, the economic cost of increasing habitat areas.

Forced nest site relocations negatively affect reproductive investment in a colonial seabird species

Species breeding in urban environments are highly prone to a wide variety of non-natural, human activities, which range from short-term disturbances to the degradation or loss of suitable habitat. The latter in turn may force individuals to relocate to new sites for foraging or breeding, both of which presumably entails fitness costs due the trade-offs of finding and exploring new habitats. Species showing a high level of spatial foraging specialisation or nest site fidelity are expected to be most vulnerable. In this study, we explored the consequences of nest site loss on the reproductive investment of lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus), a site faithful seabird species breeding in an urban environment. We monitored a population of 1.173 colour-ringed gulls across 13 years, that involved several episodes of spatially restricted loss of breeding habitat. We found that birds which lost their breeding territories reduced their investment into the eggs as reflected in a decrease of the clutch volume. They relocated over larger distances compared to birds that relocated voluntarily. Moreover, the likelihood of skipping the subsequent breeding season increased after a forced relocation. These negative effects of forced relocation likely contribute to the decline in the number of breeding pairs in our urban population as observed during the last ten years, and highlights the importance of maintaining a stable breeding environment in urban areas for the conservation of this and potentially other colonial breeding seabird species.

Adapting a multi‐species tool for single‐species impact assessments: Managing fishes at risk in Canada

Abstract To assess the impacts of human activity on fishes and fish habitat, impact assessment tools use single‐ and multi‐species approaches depending on the ecological and socio‐economic objectives. In Canadian aquatic ecosystems, single‐ and multi‐species impact assessments are guided by the Species at Risk Act and Fisheries Act, respectively. Yet, for species protected under the Species at Risk Act, the sparse data often require alternative approaches to risk assessment. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether a database‐derived multi‐species tool – the Habitat Ecosystem Assessment Tool (HEAT) – can be used for single‐species impact assessments. Using an empirical example of proposed drain maintenance in a tributary of Lake St. Clair, the net loss of suitable habitat was evaluated across six conservation targets, ranging from single species, such as the pugnose shiner (Notropis anogenus) and the yellow perch (Perca flavescens), to the entire fish assemblage. Model outcomes were compared across various habitat suitability indices, spatial resolutions, and environmental habitat layers. The net loss of suitable habitat varied widely across conservation targets and was greatest for the rare specialist species (pugnose shiner). Single‐species conservation targets were more sensitive to variation in spatial resolution and uncertainty in model input parameters. The results of this study emphasize that single‐ and multi‐species conservation targets should not be considered equal, especially when species differ in abundance and niche breadth. This study demonstrates the flexibility of HEAT for evaluating potential impacts of human disturbance on fishes and their habitat. Future development of this tool should expand beyond physical habitat, to include other factors relevant to species distribution and survival (e.g. biotic interactions).

Climate change-induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China.

Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.

Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change

Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling.

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.