Abstract
Rice paddy fields, considered as a human-made wetland ecosystems, play important roles in food production and ecosystem conservation. Nowadays, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is under severe threat from climate changes, yet there is a shortage of documented information and research on rice production under future climate. Hence, the present study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation in the MD using an ensemble-modelling approach, implemented by biomod2 platform in R software. Rice cultivation occurrence points, eco-physiological and bioclimatic data were utilised to model habitat suitability for rice cultivation under current and future climate, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the year 2050. The ensemble model obtained acceptable accuracy with scores of 0.880, 0.993 and 0.960 for KAPPA, ROC/AUC and TSS, respectively. Simulation results show that the mean loss of suitable land and mean gain of unsuitable land were 31.4% and 64.6%, respectively, for the year 2050 compared to the present. Salinity intrusion, increases in precipitation during rainy season and decreases in precipitation during dry season were key factors driving the loss of suitable habitat. The findings of this study critically support policy makers and planners in developing appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation in response to climate change for sustainable rice cultivation.
Highlights
Rice paddy is considered a human-made wetland according to the Ramsar Classification System and is the second largest wetland type around the world [1]
The current work develops a modelling approach to project the potential distribution of areas suitable for rice cultivation under current and future climate scenarios
The study found that climate change considerably affected the distribution and extent of land areas suitable for rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta (MD)
Summary
Rice paddy is considered a human-made wetland according to the Ramsar Classification System and is the second largest wetland type around the world [1]. Apart from the important role in food production, this wetland type delivers critical ecological services for related water resources and large agrobiodiversity [2]. Rice paddy fields can function as shallow reservoirs to reduce surface runoff during wet periods and supply drainage water for dry periods [1], and as treatment wetlands to purify water [3]. Appropriate use, maintenance and rehabilitation of human-made wetlands, rice paddy field resources, are recommended for ecosystem protection and food production [1]. Alongside the critical ecosystem functions mentioned above, rice paddy fields in the Mekong Delta (MD) in Vietnam play an important role in food production and the broader economy of the country. The domestic and export market for rice from the MD contributes a fifth to GDP of the country [8]
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