Long-term Perspective Research Articles

Sources and formation characteristics of particulate nitrate in the Pearl River Delta region of China: Insights from three-year online observations

Nitrate (NO3−) has been identified as a key component of particulate matter (PM2.5) in China. However, there is still a lack of understanding regarding its sources and how it forms, especially in the context of high-frequency and long-term data. In this study, NO3− levels were observed on an hourly basis over an almost three-year period at an urban site in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China, from January 2019 to December 2021. The results reveal an average daily NO3− concentration ranging from 0.08 μg m−3 to 61.69 μg m−3, constituting 11.9 ± 12.5 % of PM2.5. This percentage rose to as high as 57 % during pollution episodes, highlighting NO3−'s significant role in pollution formation. The ammonia-rich environment was found to be the most important factor in promoting NO3− formation. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis indicates that the primary sources of NO3− in the PRD region were vehicle emissions (43.8 ± 21.2 %) and coal combustion (39.1 ± 21.5 %), with shipping emissions, sea salt, soil dust and industrial emissions + biomass burning following in importance. Regarding source areas, the primary contributor of vehicle emissions was predominantly from the PRD region, whereas the coal combustion, aside from local contributions, also originates from the northern region. From a long-term perspective, NO3− pollution has remained relatively stable since the summer of 2020. Concurrently, coal combustion source has shown a localization trend. These insights derived from the extensive, high-frequency observation presented in this study serve as a valuable reference for devising strategies to control NO3− and PM2.5 in the PRD region and China.

THE INFLUENCE OF CONFLICTS ON THE STATE OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND WAYS OF REGULATING GEOPOLITICAL TENSION

The growth of geopolitical tension and conflicts in the modern world pose a serious threat to the international security system. It has been established that in recent years conflict at the international level has reached a critical level with the highest risk of nuclear confronta- tion based on the results of the conducted research. In this regard, issues of constructive reso- lution of international conflicts, establishment and maintenance of a stable structure of inter- national relations are gaining significant relevance. The purpose of the article is to determine the essence of conflicts with the study of their impact on the state of international security and to build an analytical basis for the formation of systemic decisions aimed at their settlement in the conditions of growing geopolitical tension. Analysis of conceptual approaches, theories and concepts of conflict research has been provided in the course of the research. Classifications and typologies of international conflicts are considered with an emphasis on the main structural elements of the conflict. The formation of an analytical system for supporting strategic decision-making has been proposed in order to solve issues related to the settlement of international conflicts and the ef- fective development of international relations. The proposed system combines four subsys- tems, namely: the subsystem of forming information databases, the subsystem of determining relationships, the subsystem of modelling and the subsystem of forming strategic decisions. The practical use of the proposed system will make it possible to form analytical infor- mation and determine the dominant factors of influence on the socio-economic state and the conflict situation. It is possible to determine the trends in the development of international con- flicts and to form strategies for their settlement and increase the efficiency of international re- lations, taking into account the long-term perspective on the basis of obtaining analytical in- formation.

Business Confidence in Indonesia: Which Macroeconomic Factors Have Long-Term Impact?

Business confidence refers to the level of optimism or pessimism that business owners have about the prospects of their companies and the overall economy. Thus, the focus of this study is to examine the long-term impact of various macroeconomic factors—economic growth, government expenditure, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and the composite stock price index—on the business confidence index in Indonesia by utilizing monthly data from January 2009 to December 2022. We employ Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) as the main methods, with Canonical Cointegrating Regressions (CCR) as a robustness check method. The study also utilizes pairwise Granger causality tests for a comprehensive analysis. The findings indicate that all macroeconomic factors significantly impact the business confidence index in the long term across all methodologies. Specifically, economic growth, inflation, and the composite stock price index exert a positive impact, while government expenditure, interest rates, and exchange rates indicate a negative impact on the business confidence index. This evidence emphasizes the importance for businesses to diligently monitor macroeconomic trends and understand the patterns in these indicators so that companies can better anticipate changes in business sentiment. Taking a long-term perspective when making strategic decisions and investments is also advisable, recognizing that the influence of macroeconomic factors on business confidence may be more pronounced over time.

Транснациональный бизнес как резерв роста национальной конкурентоспособности России

This article delves into the historical forms of entrepreneurial transnationalization in Russia, analyzes their adaptation to the conditions of anti-Russian politicization of foreign economic activities since 2022, and assesses the prospects for forming corporate competitive advantages and efficiency competencies of Russian enterprises based on scientific justification of the activities of transnational companies. The main directions of their implementation into the strategy of enhancing the country’s national competitiveness are characterized, taking into account current issues and constraints in the long-term perspective. It is noted that in relation to foreign and domestic transnational companies, our country should pursue a comprehensive policy, including measures to align their activities with the priorities of enhancing national competitiveness. Conclusion dwells upon the fact that the effectiveness of the outlined strategy will be sufficient if Russia maintains the ability to modernize approaches to transnational entrepreneurship, which becomes a strategic task in the conditions of sanction policies against it.

Modeling of extreme waves in the South China Sea under the influence of tropical cyclones: long-term statistical perspective in Xisha reef islands

Modeling of extreme waves in the South China Sea under the influence of tropical cyclones: long-term statistical perspective in Xisha reef islands

Elasticity of environmental, social, sustainable and management stocks: an analysis of market breakdown, technology and growth while COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent eradication precipitated a rare and unexpected stock market crash. Consequently, the crisis presents a unique chance to evaluate Environmental, Social, Sustainable, and Management (ESSM) policy choices. The contribution of this study is to demonstrate the application of the investment horizon of ESSM concerns and investment decisions, technology and growth and shows the significance of the long-term perspective in ESSM investment decision making. During the period of January 2020 to December 2021, stocks with higher ESSM ratings had significantly greater returns, less return arbitrariness, and bigger operational profit margins. ESSM ventures with more advertising expenditures had higher stock returns, but investors with a greater predisposition for ESSM saw less return arbitrariness during market crises. This study emphasizes the importance of investor and consumer loyalty to the elasticity of ESSM stocks.

Three Center of Education on A Vocational Learning Approach Based on Local Wisdom in Special Schools in Bali Province

An ideal vocational learning program should be designed considering the learners' residential environment. This research focuses on implementing the Three Centers of Education concept in vocational learning based on local wisdom in Special Schools in Bali Province. The study employed a descriptive research method with a qualitative approach and was conducted through interviews with eight informants from two Special Schools in Bali Province. The findings illustrate that vocational skills learning based on local wisdom, specifically in weaving Endek fabric and coconut shell crafts in Bali, involves various stakeholders, including schools, parents, and the community. This skills-based learning imparts practical skills and reflects local wisdom and the school's commitment to preserving it. Furthermore, efforts to ensure program sustainability, introduce innovation, and enhance the quality of learning signify the school's long-term perspective in continuing to impact the future lives of the learners positively.

DIGITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE QUOTED COMMERCIAL BANKS IN NIGERIA

Objective: The study aims to examine the causal relationship as well as short-term and long-term dynamic effects between digital financial service components and on the performance of the quoted commercial banks. Method: The study employs a cross-sectional descriptive survey research with ex-post facto research. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze responses and opinions, while inferential statistics including the dynamic Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) approach, Panel Granger Causality Test. Results: The Granger Causality analysis reveals that Agency banking exhibits a strong causal link to ROA (p=0.003<0.05), emphasizing its predictive power for ROA variations. Also, ATM banking has a weaker influence on ROA (p=0.08>0.05), while internet banking (p=0.049<0.05) and mobile banking (p=0.0001<0.05) both impact ROA significantly. The long-term analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model indicates that agency banking (β=0.128, p < 0.05), ATM banking (β=0.566, p < 0.05), internet banking (β=0.514, p < 0.05), and POS activities (β=0.118, p < 0.05) all have positive impacts on ROA. In the short term, these variables also show positive coefficients, suggesting immediate effects on ROA. Error correction (ECTt−1) has a negative coefficient (β=-0.06, p < 0.05), indicating its role in short-run adjustments to deviations from long-run equilibrium. Overall, agency banking, ATM banking, internet banking, and POS activities are crucial drivers with strong statistical significance, while mobile banking has limited influence on ROA. Based on these findings. Conclusion: The study recommends that financial institutions should strategically prioritize agency banking services and enhance internet banking services to positively impact ROA. Resource allocation for ATM banking should be reevaluated, and POS-related strategies may not be a priority for improving ROA. Additionally, financial institutions should adopt a long-term perspective when planning and implementing these services, and invest in enhancing their digital financial services to boost customer satisfaction, fostering loyalty and retention.

Trajectories of Satisfaction with Life Following a Collective, Critical Life Event and Their Relationship with Sociodemographic Factors and Internal Migration: The Example of the German Reunification 1989/90

There are considerable interindividual differences in adjustment processes in satisfaction with life (SWL) following critical life events. We focused on a collective life event, the German reunification in 1989/90, which prompted fundamental changes in the political, social, and economic conditions to investigate the heterogeneity of short- and long-term trajectories of SWL and their association with sociodemographic factors and internal migration. Using data (short-term: 1990–1994, long-term: 1990–2019) from the German Socioeconomic Panel (N = 5548), we applied growth mixture modelling with categorical time for short-term and continuous (quadratic) time for long-term trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations of the trajectories with internal migration (West German (reference)/East German non-migrants, East-West/West-East migrants), baseline characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, household income) and changes (becoming not employed, becoming divorced/separated, change in household income). The best models indicated four classes both long- and short-term, with the majority showing high stable SWL (86.7% (short-term) vs. 62.3% (long-term)); other classes were ‘improvement’ (2.5%, vs. 16.4%), ‘decline-improvement’ (5.2% vs. 9.4%), and ‘decline’ (5.6% vs. 11.9%). For short-term trajectories, East German non-migrants and East-West migrants were more likely to show unstable trajectories. Long-term, both East German non-migrants and East-West migrants had higher odds of increasing SWL, whereas West-East migrants had higher chances for decline-improvement. Differential associations with baseline sociodemographic characteristics and changes thereof were found. The study highlights distinct SWL trajectories following the collective event of German reunification. These trajectories vary based on short- versus long-term perspectives, sociodemographic background, and internal migration patterns.

Responding to the crisis: Japan’s changing foreign policy and ODA to Ukraine (2014–2023)

The Russian aggression on Ukraine (2022) has marked a significant critical juncture for Japan’s foreign and security policies, and Japanese government has deployed a multitude of political, economic/financial, and limited military measures to support Ukraine. The article investigates a less-explored aspect of Japan’s foreign policy change in the post-2022 crisis setting, namely the development assistance provided to Ukraine. The manuscript discusses this subject from a long-term perspective, exploring the trends in—and directionality of—Japanese development assistance to Ukraine in the context of Japan’s evolving role in the international community between 2014 and 2023. It utilises a role theoretical approach to explore the frictions between the ambitious proactive contributor to peace national role conception promoted by PM Abe Shinzō (2012–2020) and the issue-specific role conceptions guiding Japan’s foreign policy behaviour towards Russia that shaped Japan’s response to the Ukraine-Russia tensions. The article elucidates how the fluctuations in Japanese ODA flows to Ukraine may contribute to our understanding of role conflict and how it was managed, as well as the rebalancing of and changes in Japanese foreign policy that have been occurring since 2022 under PM Kishida Fumio’s leadership.

Strategies for Overcoming Organisational Weaknesses: Enhancing Performance, Sustainability and Competitive Advantage

Strategically resolving organisational shortcomings was essential for long-term survival and gaining a competitive edge in today's changing business climate. Developing and communicating a strategic vision was crucial for aligning stakeholders and directing organisational actions. A recent study highlights the significance of establishing future oriented objectives and efficiently executing them using strong management tactics. A good strategic vision must possess clarity, evoke motivation among personnel, and have a forward-looking viewpoint that directs decision-making and resource allocation. The essential steps for developing a strategic vision include analysing the external environment, including relevant stakeholders, and continuously improving the vision via iterations. Although strategic visions were widely recognised as advantageous, organisations often had difficulties executing them, resulting in discrepancies between planned strategies and realised results. Challenges included the need to strike a balance between aspirational aspirations and realistic limitations, as well as the task of incorporating strategic aims into day-to-day activities while maintaining a long-term perspective. Examinations of pioneering businesses such as Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. underscore the profound influence of strategic visions that are in harmony with leadership guidance. These examples highlight the crucial need for maintaining regular communication and incorporating it into the various operations of an organisation. Keywords: Strategic vision, organisational vulnerabilities, competitive edge, stakeholder involvement, environmental analysis.

Advancing Sustainable Finance in the United States: Development, Impact and Recommendations

In the United States, there has been a noticeable shift toward sustainable finance practices in the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects into financial institutions. This change is in line with general world patterns. Green bonds, impact investing, ESG investing, and funding for renewable energy are among the increasingly well-liked sustainable finance strategies. Recent literature reviews demonstrate the complexity and breadth of sustainable finance practices, as well as the advancements in technology and law that have propelled this growth. This study aims to investigate the development, implementation, and outcomes of sustainable financial practices in the United States. It focuses on understanding how these activities contribute to financial stability, environmental sustainability, and social fairness. The study aims to identify the primary drivers behind the adoption of sustainable financing, in addition to providing helpful guidance on how governments, investors, and financial institutions may incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into their financial decision-making processes. Secondary data sources, such as academic publications, reports from governmental and non-governmental organizations, trade journals, and media outlets are investigated using a qualitative technique. Using thematic analysis and cross-case synthesis, important issues, success factors, and barriers to the adoption of sustainable financing are identified. Ethical concerns have been taken into consideration during the study method. The analysis leads to the conclusion that sustainable finance practices reduce the risks associated with social unrest and environmental degradation, thereby improving financial stability. By investing in clean technology and renewable energy, they promote environmental sustainability and social justice through inclusive financial systems. However, problems like data scarcity and greenwashing persist, and need for both legislative and technological responses. Among the suggestions include strengthening regulatory frameworks, promoting inclusive financing, fostering stakeholder collaboration, and leveraging technology for ESG data analytics. A long-term perspective and robust monitoring and assessment processes are necessary to fully realize the potential of sustainable finance in building a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable financial system. The conclusion of the study emphasizes how sustainable finance has the power to drastically alter the trajectory of financial systems in the US and other nations while also addressing global sustainability challenges.

Conceptualizing Sustainable Business Models Aligning with Corporate Responsibility

Our research is dedicated to developing sustainable business models (SBMs). In this study, we review numerous empirical articles, reviews, and papers on SBMs, including 17,412 SCIE articles and 17,237 SSCI papers, published between 2009 and 2023. Our research provides guidance on how to achieve and maintain sustainability. We identify the most effective practices for conceptualizing an SBM. Our citations of over 130 articles highlight the importance of integrating corporate actions and consequences across the environmental, societal, and economic spheres, while also considering stakeholder engagement and long-term perspectives. We also emphasize the need to move beyond the traditional dichotomous treatment of SBMs and reflect more contemporary practices. To provide a more practical explanation, we use fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to predict the future evolution of SBMs from a corporate responsibility perspective, drawing on the lessons of the China phenomenon. This approach clarifies how the theoretical and practical elements obtained from the literature correspond with the new SBMs.

Integrated Optimization Study of Electric Bus Fleet Transformation

With the increasing social demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly transportation, the transformation of public transportation systems has become an important issue. In this paper, three mathematical models are developed to synthesize the ecological consequences, financial models and transition scenarios in the transition from diesel to electric bus fleet. In Problem 1, this paper adopts the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to examine the full life cycle energy consumption of the product. The model comprehensively considers the main raw material production stage, vehicle assembly and distribution stage, vehicle driving stage and vehicle scrapping and dismantling stage, as well as the production stage of all types of energy added to the vehicle driving stage, i.e., the production stage of fuels and electricity, and finally applies Gabi, the life cycle evaluation software developed by PE Germany, to carry out the evaluation of the life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the energy-saving potential of pure electric buses reaches 12.69%, and the GHG emission reduction potential reaches 6.05%. The results are applied to the bus fleet in Beijing, and it is calculated that the replacement of the bus fleet with pure electric buses can save 21.87% of energy and bring about a total GHG emission reduction of 60,700 tons. In Problem 2, this paper adopts the research method of life cycle cost (LCC). The model quantifies all the technical, material, human and organizational measures involved in the whole bus system process into cost indicators, and then builds a financial model for the transition of the fleet to a pure electric bus fleet based on the model, which provides a reliable basis for the bus company's decision-making. From a long-term perspective, the public transport company to choose a pure electric bus fleet will be more economically efficient, but need to bear the costly transition to the acquisition of costs. Overall, this paper comprehensively explores the smart bus fleet transformation problem through three complementary models. It provides strong support for decision makers from the perspectives of life cycle cost, financial planning and environmental friendliness. The combined use of these models makes the article more comprehensive and provides useful lessons for future bus fleet transformation.

Effects of family life cycle events on individual Body Mass Index trajectories: Evidence from China.

Body mass index (BMI) is an important predictor of one's physiological health. China is a family-centric nation compared to Western societies and has already entered an aged society. Exploring the characteristics and patterns of BMI changes during household events in China provides critical insights into the biological and social determinants of health, which can help enhance the scientific validity of health promotion measures and contribute to the realization of healthy aging goals in China. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1993 to 2015, this article utilizes two-level growth curve models with piecewise spline specifications for age to examine the effects of family life cycle events on BMI trajectories for age groups and gender differences. Compared to continuing status, experiencing transition in an individual's family life cycle could lead to more fluctuating variations in their BMI trajectories, generally, there is a faster increase in BMI during youth and a faster decline during old age. As for gender heterogeneity, males are more affected by divorce, widowhood, and empty nest, whereas females' BMI changes are influenced by entering/maintaining marriage and parenthood. A long-term perspective has revealed the significance of family events on BMI throughout the life course. Future research should focus on the nutrition and health of specific populations, especially elderly individuals in vulnerable groups.

The mediating role of governance in creating a nexus between investment in artificial intelligence (AII) and human well-being in the BRICS countries

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) aim to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 16, which involve promoting human well-being for all and building strong institutions and governance. This study examines the AII-HWBG nexus contingent on governance indicators within the BRICS nations in 2012-2022 using the Cross-Sectional Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) technique. Its findings reveal a long-term relationship among variables with varied causality directions and point to the necessity of integrating governance quality into AII to boost HWBG in both the short- and long-term perspective. Since AII has not so far been used to support HWBG there is a dire need for caution when considering AII’s interaction with institutional governance, economic governance, control of corruption, political stability, regulatory quality and voice and accountability. The paper highlights the crucial role of governance quality in shaping the way AI investment impacts the human well-being. To ensure an overall improvement of well-being, priority should be given to strategies that promote positive synergy between AI investment and governance while mitigating possible harmful effects. Carefully targeted measures in governance areas can create an environment conducive to AI development where it will significantly benefit the citizens of the BRICS countries.

Ideology and practice of planning fundamental research in the USSR (1920-1930)

Analysis of government regulation of the academic sphere in the USSR is a highly relevant area of research, enabling identification of the positive and negative aspects of the Soviet scientific model. The purpose of the study is to identify the main patterns of the transition to directive planning of academic science in the RSFSR/USSR in the 1920s - 1930s. In the context of this transformation of Soviet academic science, it is important to consider not only the institutional decisions of the authorities, but also the socio-psychological, as well as ideological motives that determined this transformation, which influenced the operation of the scientific community. This task methodologically required an interdisciplinary approach to its solution. This analysis is at the intersection of several related areas of research: history of science, science studies, and history of economics. The work employed comparative-historical, historical-cultural, and statistical methods to identify significant patterns of the phenomenon being studied. Methodologically, this is close to source studies and semiotic analysis. Concepts formed and institutionalized in the paradigm of directive planning of basic science - “scientist”, “thematic plan”, “thematic development”, “research plant” - form a contextual layer. The planning of basic science was conceived by its ideologists as a product of the industrial world. But, paradoxically, the ideology and methodology of directive planning implanted in theoretical science gave the opposite results - epistemological apathy of scientists, reduction, if not extinction, of huge areas of research activities. The state's attempt to adapt basic science to address strictly applied problems of industrialization ultimately resulted in a mere semblance of “planned science”. However, the internal compensation mechanisms of self-organization of the scientific community turned out to be quite effective in a long-term perspective, even under the conditions of “directive planning”. The conducted historical analysis allows us to draw significant conclusions in the context of the formation of Russian scientific policy at the present stage.

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF USING THE POTENTIAL OF BIOENERGY CROPS FOR BIOGAS PRODUCTION AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR DIGESTATE APPLICATION

The research examines the prospects for using the potential of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine to study green technology innovations during economic development under martial law. Based on the study, it is proved that technological innovations in the agricultural sector contribute to economic development and improve the quality of agricultural land. The article analyses the successful implementation of the case of LLC Yuzhef-Mykolayiv Biogas Company, which has successfully restructured the production of a sugar plant and produces biogas and digestate with further processing into electricity and fertiliser. The modern capacities of the studied enterprise are highlighted, which allow to produce 2800 m3 of biogas and ensure the production of 5200 kWh of electricity, while consumption does not exceed 150 kW, at a load of 80%. The volume of digestate produced per year is 100,000 tonnes. In the regional context, innovative environmental technologies aimed at improving the quality of agricultural land have been introduced. An effective mechanism of spatial synergy with adaptation of this practice at most sugar factories through restructuring of production - creation of biogas production facilities on the basis of sugar factories - is proposed. As a long-term development perspective, the paper presents further creation of alcohol production facilities to use excess heat energy from mini-thermal power plants for the production of alcohol and bioethanol. Furthermore, this study confirms the non-linear effect of economic development; a significant result shows that the impact of green technology innovations on improving the quality of agricultural land (soil humus content, amount of mineral and organic fertilisers, pesticides, area of land under organic production, etc.) contributes to the increase in the level of regional economic development of the agricultural sector. The article clarifies the intermediary role of economic development of the agro-industrial complex. The results of the study implement the tasks of sustainable development, such as improving the environment through the innovation of green technologies and achieving regional synergy in green development.

Dry deposition of nitric acid gas by long-term measurement above and below a forest canopy

Reactive nitrogen negatively affects terrestrial ecosystems by excessive deposition. Nitric acid gas (HNO3), a component of reactive nitrogen, is readily deposited on ground surfaces due to its high reactivity. However, there have been recent cases in which suppressed deposition fluxes, including upward fluxes, were observed above forests. As the mechanisms of HNO3 dry deposition on forest surfaces are not fully understood, the accuracy of dry deposition estimates remains uncertain. To reduce uncertainties in the estimation, we investigated dry deposition of HNO3 by 1-year measurement in a forest. We measured the vertical profiles of HNO3, nitrate, and sulfate in PM2.5 in a deciduous forest in suburban Tokyo (FM Tama). We observed their concentrations above the forest canopy (30 m) and near the forest floor (2 and 0.2 m) using the denuder/filter pack from October 2020 to September 2021. The HNO3 concentration decreased significantly from 30 to 2 m. However, the decrease in HNO3 was not as significant, and occasionally, emission profiles were produced between 2 and 0.2 m. This was likely caused by HNO3 generated by the volatilization of NH4NO3 near the forest floor, which was warmed by sunlight during daytime in both leafy and leafless periods. Conversely, HNO3 concentrations at 30 m were much higher than those at 2 m and 0.2 m, indicating that the forest acted as a sink for HNO3 from a long-term perspective. It is presumed that HNO3, generated just above the forest canopy, could cause an upward flux if a temperature difference of several degrees occurs between 25 and 20 m.

Spatiotemporal Changes in Prehistoric Land Use in Upper and Middle Reaches of Yellow River Valley

During the Holocene, the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River valley in China were pivotal areas for agricultural development. Quantitatively reconstructing the spatiotemporal changes in prehistoric human land use is essential for understanding, from a long-term perspective, the interactions among evolutions of climate, agriculture, and human activities. Based on 327 archaeological sites and the PLUM (prehistoric land use model), we quantitatively reconstructed human land use changes from 6 to 3 ka BP (thousands of years before the present) in the Tao River valley, the second-largest tributary in the upper reach of the Yellow River valley. The results indicated that regional land use areas increased from 571 km2 to 1468 km2, with spatial expansion from the lower reach to the upper–middle reach of the Tao River valley. A comparison of the five areas distributed across the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River valley revealed two different trends of increasing land use from 8 to 3 ka BP within these areas. The first group (the Wei River and Yiluo River valleys) exhibited rapid and substantial growth before 5 ka BP, while the second group (the Huangshui River and Tao River valleys, and the Yunlin district) showed a much slower and less significant increase before 5 ka BP, but a more obvious increase thereafter. The asynchronous increases in these areas indicate an expansion of land use from the southeastern part of the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Valley to across the entire region between 8 and 3 ka BP, which was primarily driven by agricultural development and cultural communication.