Long-term Emission Reduction Research Articles

Flexibility requirement for large-scale renewable energy integration in Indian power system: Technology, policy and modeling options

Reliable and stable power system operation requires flexibility, in addition to capacity adequacy. Traditional system components either have limited flexibility to suppress extensive system variation, or their role is limited due to lack of proper regulatory provisions and inefficient market design. Large-scale integration of renewable energy (RE) resources (e.g., solar, wind) imposes additional variability and uncertainty to the existing system and thus enhances flexibility need. There are various solutions to the problem. Revamping system operation protocol with existing resources, retrofitting current power-generating assets, network expansion, etc. can provide flexible service. Investing in a new type of resources like energy storage and demand-side response (DSR) however, needs aggressive policy interventions and market mechanisms. Identifying suitable flexible resources and designing appropriate policy structures require long-term system planning. Traditional methods in this regard need to evolve to consider the operation-scale impact of large-scale RE integration at the planning stage such that long-term carbon emission reduction targets can be met. The approach towards transitioning into a flexible energy system can differ according to its present status. This paper focuses on the Indian power sector’s perspective, which has ambitious RE integration goals. With a fast-evolving system configuration, flexibility related challenges are high in India due to weak infrastructure, inefficient regulatory policies, and aggregated planning methods. This article presents the current status of the Indian power system detailing existing technology types, regulatory norms, and future targets. It further details a comprehensive review of relevant technical options, market mechanisms and planning approaches for transitioning into a flexible power system for India. Comparative analysis with international experiences highlights the need for a major paradigm shift. A short-term transition towards becoming a flexible system can focus on developing adequate transmission infrastructure, exploit available pumped hydro storage potential and retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants. On longer-term, innovating market mechanisms and regulatory changes should drive investment into emerging flexible resources like DSR, storage, etc. Planning for this transition should be designed using improved modeling and planning approaches which should focus on the interlinking of different sector-specific models.

An assessment of opportunities for cogenerating electricity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands

The purpose of this research is to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from cogenerated electricity in oil sands production. A novel combined market penetration and bottom-up energy system modelling framework was developed to assess the long-range potential and marginal costs of cogenerated electricity in the oil sands. Feasible scenarios for incorporating cogeneration into the in situ, surface mining, and upgrading subsectors were developed along with four additional scenarios incorporating electricity-based technologies to improve in situ plant efficiencies. These scenarios were evaluated under three different carbon pricing policies; twenty-one scenarios in total covering the time period 2019 to 2050. The use of cogeneration in the oil sands for new production during this period was determined through market penetration modelling and the results were compared to a reference scenario of limited cogeneration growth. It was found that there is potential to provide 76 million tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement (2% of cumulative projected oil sands emissions) at a marginal cost of $15 per tonne of carbon abated compared to the reference scenario. The incorporation of electrical equipment, specifically well-pad boilers, well-pad compressors, additional steam compressors, and steam superheaters, resulted in additional costs that outweighed the benefits. A $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent carbon price (within the current Alberta emission reduction regulation) resulted in a 2% increase in forecasted greenhouse gas abatement potential and a $1.4/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent decrease in marginal abatement costs compared to no carbon pricing. This research provides quantification of the greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and marginal abatement costs of cogeneration technologies to allow industry stakeholders and policymakers to compare these technology options to others when considering long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction.

A study on the achievement of long-term energy emission reduction policies for district levels

A study on the achievement of long-term energy emission reduction policies for district levels

Buildings as a global carbon sink

The anticipated growth and urbanization of the global population over the next several decades will create a vast demand for the construction of new housing, commercial buildings and accompanying infrastructure. The production of cement, steel and other building materials associated with this wave of construction will become a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Might it be possible to transform this potential threat to the global climate system into a powerful means to mitigate climate change? To answer this provocative question, we explore the potential of mid-rise urban buildings designed with engineered timber to provide long-term storage of carbon and to avoid the carbon-intensive production of mineral-based construction materials. Increasing urbanization will lead to a significant expansion of buildings and related infrastructure, major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. This Perspective discusses the possibility of constructing mid-rise urban buildings with engineered timber for long-term carbon storage and carbon emissions reduction.

Assessing the Potential to Reduce U.S. Building CO2 Emissions 80% by 2050

Summary Buildings are responsible for 36% of CO2 emissions in the United States and will thus be integral to climate change mitigation; yet, no studies have comprehensively assessed the potential long-term CO2 emissions reductions from the U.S. buildings sector against national goals in a way that can be regularly updated in the future. We use Scout, a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, to investigate the potential for the U.S. buildings sector to reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2050, consistent with the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy. We find that a combination of aggressive efficiency measures, electrification, and high renewable energy penetration can reduce CO2 emissions by 72%–78% relative to 2005 levels, just short of the target. Results are sufficiently disaggregated by technology and end use to inform targeted building energy policy approaches and establish a foundation for continual reassessment of technology development pathways that drive significant long-term emissions reductions.

Crafting local climate action plans: An action prioritisation framework using multi-criteria decision analysis

The COP21 target to keep global warming to well below 2 (or 1.5) degrees Celsius cannot be met without massive transformation in cities. A major challenge on the road to nearly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-neutral cities is the successful development of a climate action plan (CAP) by the local authority, sometimes within the framework of its participation to different initiatives (e.g. the Global Covenant of Mayors). While the identification of the best actions for reaching their long-term GHG emission reduction target constitutes a common decision-making problem for local authorities, it is also an intricate one: conflicting and incommensurable aspects such as environmental, economic, social and technical issues, as well as conflicting stakeholder interests should be dealt with simultaneously when actions have to be programmed. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are well-known to cope with these complexities and have already been used for decades in several fields. However, they have not been systematically used within the context of local CAPs. The methodologies which are normally implemented to support the prioritisation of actions wholly or to a great extent rely on economic analyses and do not capture the potential co-impacts. In this context, this paper proposes a general participatory framework for guiding collaborative prioritisation of actions as a methodology to help local authorities with the development of more sustainable CAPs, while using MCDA. Finally, advantages, limitations and further steps in research regarding the proposed framework are discussed.

Energy flexible building through smart demand-side management and latent heat storage

One of the greatest challenges for long-term emissions reduction is the decarbonisation of heating and cooling due to the large scale, seasonal variation and distributed nature. Energy flexible buildings with electric heating, smart demand-side management and efficient thermal energy storage are one of the most promising strategies to deploy low-carbon technologies which can benefit the electricity system by reducing the need of reinforcing existing networks and their ability to use electricity in times of low demand and high supply. Combined with spot price contracts, in which the electricity tariff changes every half-hour depending on supply and demand, they can effectively reduce on-peak demand periods, achieve economic profits for end-users and retailers, and reduce the environmental impact of the electricity grid by operating in periods with lower CO2 emissions rate. To achieve these benefits, it is crucial to develop accurate models for energy flexible buildings as well as control strategies to optimise the complex system operation. This paper proposes a novel flexible energy building concept, based on smart control, high density latent heat storage and smart grids, able to predict the best operational strategy according to the environmental conditions, economic rates and expected occupancy patterns. The smart integration model, carried out in TRNSYS for a Scottish case study, solves a multi-criteria assessment based on future energy demand prediction (learning machine model supported by end-user’s predefined occupancy by Internet of Things, present and forecast weather data, and building load monitoring), electricity tariff evolution and building performance. The results show that end-user’s electricity bill savings of 20% are obtained and retailer’s associated electricity cost is reduced by 25%. In addition, despite an increase in final energy consumption of up to 8%, the environmental impact remains constant due to operation at times with lower CO2 emissions rate in electricity generation. The developed tools enable the design of smart energy systems for energy flexible buildings which can have a large positive impact on the building sector decarbonisation.

Linking greenhouse gas emissions footprint and energy return on investment in electricity generation planning

This paper aims to relate total greenhouse gas emissions footprint with Energy Return on Energy Invested for Coal, Natural Gas, Hydro, Geothermal, Wind and Solar PV electricity generation methods. Emissions from construction, decommissioning, operations and maintenance, and fuel, are all included in the analysis. Often the generation equipment is imported so much of the emissions associated with construction are “virtual” emissions (i.e. imported). These virtual emissions contribute to a peak emission as renewable generation is installed at the start to ultimately lead to a lower emissions factor for a countries’ electricity system over time. The peak occurs due to the short-term emissions resulting from construction and a long-term emissions reduction due to the low/zero carbon renewable generation installed. The electricity sector in New Zealand is used as a case study for projected new generation through to 2050 for four scenarios (a) Global Low Carbon, (b) Mixed Renewables, (c) High Grid and (d) High Solar. The study demonstrates that as total greenhouse gas footprints are included an emissions peak occurs due to new construction, mainly because of renewable generation, especially solar and high energy emissions factors in countries manufacturing generation equipment.

The nationwide characterization and modeling of local energy systems: Quantifying the role of decentralized generation and energy resources in future communities

Transnational municipal networks have led to an increase in the adoption of local energy planning and climate strategies in recent decades. As such, methods are needed to assess local energy systems on a broad scale. This study demonstrates one such approach for Switzerland. Clustering techniques are applied to multidimensional municipal data sets in order to define a set of representative local energy system archetypes for Switzerland. Data includes local energy resource potentials, existing heat and electricity energy demands by sector, and the developed environment classification for approximately 2300 municipalities. Select archetypes are analyzed using a cost optimization model to determine the optimal utilization of local resources and decentralized generation technologies until 2050 under different national energy policy scenarios. Local energy resources provide approximately 40% of municipal heat generation (largely using solar, waste, and wood potentials) and 20% of municipal electricity generation (largely using photovoltaics) by 2050, on average across the modeled archetypes. Urban archetypes demonstrate high rooftop solar and waste potentials and usage rates, while smaller rural and suburban archetypes exhibit relatively high manure, wood and small hydro potentials and usage. Efficiency measures (e.g., renovations) and high CO2 prices are vital to achieving long-term local energy demand and emissions reductions.

Analysis of Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emission in the Korea’s Building Sector: Use National Energy Statistics

Every country in the world is striving to deal with climate change such as global warming and environmental pollution caused by greenhouse gas emission as well as the depletion of fossil fuel including oil, coal, gas, etc. Countries have set long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in this effort. Korea announced its goal to reduce the national greenhouse gas in medium- and long-term by 25.7% of the observed value of 2030 greenhouse gas emission (BAU) in 2011, and set to reduce the greenhouse gas by 18.2% in the building sector. In addition, according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), greenhouse gas emission in the building sector takes up about 19% of entire emission, a very high percentage along with 31% from the industry sector. This paper calculates the national and building sector greenhouse gas emission based on energy consumption statistics, in order for Korea to achieve Post-2020 greenhouse gas reduction target, predict building sector’s greenhouse gas emission, and implement and reduction policy. The greenhouse gas emission from buildings is about 124.9 million ton CO2equivalent as of 2015, taking up about 20% of greenhouse gas emission in Korea’s entire sectors, and decreased in 1998 from 105.0 million ton CO2eq in 1997. However, the greenhouse gas emission consistently increased from 119.3 million ton CO2eq in 2007 to 127.1 million ton CO2eq in 2010 and 127.3 million ton CO2eq in 2013.

Comparison of CST with different hours of storage in the Australian National Electricity Market

Abstract The recent ratification of the Paris Climate Change Agreement has significant implications for Australia given its emissions intensive economy. It is likely that the electricity sector will need to decarbonize for Australia to meet medium- and long-term emissions reduction targets. This paper explored the potential role of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) in a 100% renewable National Electricity Market (NEM) system under different scenarios of CST configuration and subjected the results to sensitivity analysis. A Genetic algorithm (GA) was chosen as the optimization algorithm to seek the least cost combination of renewable generation technologies, transmission interconnectors and storage capacity in the NEM system at hourly temporal resolution. The main finding is that the scenario where all three CST configurations (six, nine, and 12 h of thermal storage) can be deployed achieves a lower system cost than scenarios where the size of thermal storage coupled with CST is limited to one option. The results are sensitive to assumptions of the discount rate, renewable resource availability, and the cost of CST technology. This paper found that meeting demand during winter evenings is the most challenging time period for a 100% renewable NEM power system.

Long-term CO2 Emission Reduction from Renewable Energy in Power Sector: The case of Thailand in 2050

This paper presents CO2 mitigation potential in the power sector of Thailand regarding to the Power Development Plan (PDP 2015) and Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015). Renewable energy and advanced technology have the potential to play an important role in providing clean energy. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model is used to analyze future electricity demand, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions reduction in the long term planning during 2010-2050. Regarding to those plans, implementations of renewable energy and advanced technology are proposed for mitigation options. The mitigation scenarios offer sustainable potential of renewable technologies and advanced technologies such as solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, hydropower, hydrogen fuel cell, tidal, geothermal and fossil-fuel power plants with carbon capture storage (CCS). Four mitigation scenarios are modeled along with the BAU scenario. The Mitigation 1 (MIT01) scenario is the base-case mitigation scenario based on the target of PDP2015, which target of renewable energy is 19,634 MW in 2036. In the Mitigation 2 (MIT02) scenario, the technologies in the MIT01 plus new technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell, tidal and geothermal are implemented. Clean fossil fuel technologies with CCS, for example natural gas and coal technologies, are applied in the Mitigation 3 (MIT03) scenario. In the Mitigation 4 (MIT04) scenario as the peak CO2 scenario. Results show that, in the BAU scenario, electricity demand and CO2 emissions from the power sector will increase to 52,770 ktoe and 345,959 kt-CO2eq, respectively in 2050. By adopting mitigation options, total CO2 emissions in 2050 can be mitigated by 69.66% in MIT04, following by 50.83% in MIT02, 47.22% in MIT03, and 41.71% in MIT01 when compared to the BAU scenario. Moreover, regarding to the MIT04, Thailand can meet its peak CO2 emission by 2036.

Projections of Energy Use and Carbon Emissions for Bangkok, Thailand

Cities around the world have developed innovative plans and strategies to reduce rampant and uncontrolled energy use and CO2 emissions. It is not surprising that many cities have adopted long-term emission reduction goals. However, a detailed analysis of energy use and the resulting carbon emissions are rare in developing countries. This paper presents historical trends of energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions for Bangkok, Thailand. The CO2 emissions account for the use of fossil fuels only. It also presents the projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050. Using a bottom-up energy model and scenario analysis, the paper employs a Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system to simulate four sectors in Bangkok. The results identified by the BAU (business-as-usual) scenario indicate that total energy is expected to reach 54,560 kilotonne of oil equivalent (ktoe) with 191 million tonne CO2 (Mt-CO2) by 2050. Under the alternative scenario, if all policy interventions are implemented simultaneously, the potential for energy-savings and reduced CO2 emissions in 2050 are estimated to be 32,120 ktoe and 106.19 Mt-CO2. Other international cities may wish to apply the strategies and analytical approaches presented in this paper for developing appropriate policies and measures in their own jurisdictions.

The Policy about Turning Straw into Biomass Energy in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei Region and Research on the Contribution of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction

This paper systematically introduced straw utilization in China and abroad and relevant policies and regulations in China. It also analyze straw biomass makes the contribution on air pollution prevention and energy-saving and emission-reduction through case analysis of the typical areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Finally we presented the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, short-term methods: Enhancing the incentive effects of subsidy policy, long-term method: Creating long-term voluntary emission reduction of carbon trading market, changing the straw burning into comprehensive utilization of industrialization development, forming a large-scale, commercial and sustainable industry cluster and so on.

Cost of climate change mitigation in Canada’s forest sector

Managing forests and forest products has substantial potential to help mitigate climate change but the cost has not been extensively examined in Canada. We estimated the cost of seven forest-related mitigation strategies in Canada’s 230 million hectares of managed forest, divided into 32 spatial units. For each strategy and spatial unit, we determined forest sector mitigation cost per tonne (t) using estimated impacts on forest sector greenhouse gas emissions and removals and net revenue. National cost curves showed that mitigation averaged 11.0 Mt CO2e·year–1 in 2015–2050 at costs below $50·t CO2e–1 for a strategy of increased recovery of harvested biomass, increased salvage, extraction of harvest residues for bioenergy, and increased production of longer lived products. We also examined national portfolios in which the strategy selected for each spatial unit (from among the seven examined) was chosen to maximize mitigation or minimize costs. At low levels of mitigation, portfolios chosen to minimize costs were much cheaper than those that maximized mitigation, but overall, they yielded less than half the total mitigation of the latter portfolios. Choosing strategies to maximize mitigation in 2015–2050 yielded an average of 16.5 Mt·year–1 at costs below $50·t CO2e–1. Our analysis suggests that forest-related strategies may be cost-effective choices to help achieve long-term emission reductions in Canada.

Characterizing the climate issue context in Mexico: reporting on climate change in Mexican newspapers, 1996–2009

Mexico stands out as an exception in the climate policy arena. In 2012, the Mexican government legislated a long-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, a feat which other large emerging economies (and many industrialized countries) have not been able to match. An analysis of newspaper coverage of climate change in Mexico from 1996 to 2009 offers insight on the issue context within which Mexico pursued its unilateral action. Like in many developing countries, climate change news coverage in Mexico increased steadily over the 15-year study period, with a significant increase in attention to the issue in 2007. Initially, news coverage of climate change in Mexico was dominated by framings tying climate change to weather patterns and adverse impacts at national and sub-national levels. As news coverage of the climate issue matured, there was an increase in frames linking climate change to domestic economic and energy concerns. A review of the secondary literature on climate change news coverage in other countries in the Global South suggests this domestic focus, in discussions both of climate impacts and of greenhouse gas emissions drivers, is unusual and may offer some insight into the antecedents of Mexico’s climate policy leadership.

Algal food and fuel coproduction can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while improving land and water-use efficiency

The goals of ensuring energy, water, food, and climate security can often conflict. Microalgae (algae) are being pursued as a feedstock for both food and fuels—primarily due to algae’s high areal yield and ability to grow on non-arable land, thus avoiding common bioenergy-food tradeoffs. However, algal cultivation requires significant energy inputs that may limit potential emission reductions. We examine the tradeoffs associated with producing fuel and food from algae at the energy–food–water–climate nexus. We use the GCAM integrated assessment model to demonstrate that algal food production can promote reductions in land-use change emissions through the offset of conventional agriculture. However, fuel production, either via co-production of algal food and fuel or complete biomass conversion to fuel, is necessary to ensure long-term emission reductions, due to the high energy costs of cultivation. Cultivation of salt–water algae for food products may lead to substantial freshwater savings; but, nutrients for algae cultivation will need to be sourced from waste streams to ensure sustainability. By reducing the land demand of food production, while simultaneously enhancing food and energy security, algae can further enable the development of terrestrial bioenergy technologies including those utilizing carbon capture and storage. Our results demonstrate that large-scale algae research and commercialization efforts should focus on developing both food and energy products to achieve environmental goals.

Scenario analysis of embodied greenhouse gas emissions in UK construction

Motivated by national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions budgets, the UK construction industry is pursuing reductions in emissions embodied in buildings and infrastructure. The current embodied GHG emissions benchmarks allow design teams to make a relative comparison between buildings and infrastructure but are not linked to sector or national GHG emissions reduction targets. This paper describes a novel model that links sector-level embodied GHG emissions estimates with project calculations. This provides a framework to consistently translate international, national and sector reduction targets into project targets. The required level of long-term GHG emissions reduction from improvements in building design and material manufacture is heavily dependent on external factors that the industry does not control, such as demand for new stock and the rate of electrical grid ‘decarbonisation’. A scenario analysis using the model suggests that, even if external factors progress along the better end of UK government projections, current practices will be insufficient to meet sector targets.

Global low-carbon transition and China's response strategies

The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of world's economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths, establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa

Improved tools are required to deliver good information for decision-making on the potential socio-economic benefits of a transition to a low-carbon society. This article reports on modelling approaches to answer policy-relevant questions carried out research teams in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. The teams link detailed models of sectors with economy-wide models and report methodological findings. Combining bottom-up and top-down models holds the promise of addressing short and long-term time-frames technological change, economy-wide interactions, direct costs, emissions reductions, and broader socio-economic implications of mitigation. While making different choices of models, common challenges were identified around: communication between the two models; treatment of time; convergence criteria; trade-offs between model accuracy and requirements of stakeholder processes; and level of integration of sectors within the economy-wide model. The teams each examined a diverse range of mitigation actions. By assuming the same range of carbon prices (US$10, US$20 and US$50 per ton of CO2-eq) results can be compared, while understanding that variation may also be due to assumed differences in carbon pricing mechanisms, recycling of revenue and models chosen. The studies for Brazil and Chile found relatively higher emission reductions at this medium carbon price than those for South Africa and Colombia. Our analysis of the socio-economic implications suggests that emissions reductions with a medium carbon tax would be accompanied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses ranging from 0.5% of GDP to 3%. Three studies further examined implications for employment and wages and found negative effects, which could be softened only to some extent by recycling of revenue.