Local Disaster Research Articles

Mapping Local Level Climate Vulnerability

The Sundarbans poses a unique challenge to policy makers. With rising sea level, large part of the area will be inundated and hence a climate adaption strategy needs to be in place. While there is a significant discussion regarding medium- and long-term strategies, preventing or mitigating such local level disasters need micro level data with minimum lag. In this article, we show how using satellite imagery can achieve both. With real-time data availability, one can map various villages, monitor their economic activities (primarily agriculture) and create a vulnerability mapping. While this article only highlights an extremely localised shock, such vulnerability mapping for the entire area will be an extremely useful tool for policy makers. We use Landsat images 2007–18 and perform clustering to map local area vulnerability in Mousuni island Sundarbans.

The true global burden of trauma: a call for a comprehensive trauma research platform

The true global burden of trauma: a call for a comprehensive trauma research platform

Experiences of Experts with Communication and Information Exchange in Response to Disasters

Introduction: Effective communication and timely information exchange during disasters and emergencies can help responsive organizations prepare better and react fast and effectively in order to mitigate losses and casualties. Objectives: This study summarizes the experiences of experts at Iran’s Relief and Rescue Organization and Emergency Organization with regard to how communication and information exchange contributed in response to past disasters. Methods:: The content analysis approach was used in this qualitative study. The statistical population included the operational managers and employees of Iran’s Relief and Rescue Organization and Emergency Organization from different provinces with various in managerial and field work's experiences at supreme, middle, and operational levels as well as experiences with local, provincial, regional, national, and international disasters. The purposive sampling method was then employed to collect data through semi-structured interviews from 24 participants. Data analysis was performed in MAXQDA 12. Findings: The results of analyzing the interviews included a main theme of communication and information exchange with two categories. The first category was identified as intra-organizational communication and information exchange with seven subcategories called organizational individuals and departments, communication channels, communication model, message content, purpose of communication, standards and instructions, and challenges. The second category was identified as inter-organizational communication and information exchange with six subcategories called organizational individuals and departments, communication channels, communication model, message content, purpose of communication, and challenges. Conclusion: The participants believed that there were limited horizontal communications and information exchange between Iran’s Relief and Rescue Organization and Iran’s Emergency Organization at the same level via fixed phones, mobile phones, and wireless radios in response to disasters. Therefore, disturbance to accurate timely communication and information exchange between organizations, especially in the first 24 hours of a disaster and lack of inter-organizational agreements and communication infrastructure result in the further vulnerability of victims, Red Crescent rescuer, and emergency technicians.

Testing of the Seismic Gap Hypothesis in a Model With Realistic Earthquake Statistics

AbstractThe seismic gap hypothesis states that fault regions where no large earthquake has recently occurred, are more prone than others to host the next large earthquake. It can lead to the idea of immunity after local disaster which, notwithstanding it sounds reasonable, it has been frequently rejected by objective testing. More generally, the estimate of the occurrence probability of the next big shock on the basis of the time delay from the last earthquake still represents a big challenge. The problem is that this issue cannot be addressed only on the basis of historical catalogs which contain too few well documented big shocks, and decades of future observations appear necessary. On the other hand, recent results have shown that important insights can be obtained from the spatial organization of aftershocks and its relationship to the mainshock slip profile. Here, we address this issue by monitoring the stress evolution together with the occurrence of big shocks and their aftershocks in a model where the fault is described as an elastic interface embedded in a ductile medium. The model reproduces all relevant statistical features of earthquake occurrence and allows us to perform accurate testing of the seismic gap hypothesis and its consequences, particularly on the side of aftershock spatial patterns. We show that large earthquakes do not regularly repeat in time, but it is possible to achieve insights on the time until the next big shock from the percentage of aftershocks occurring inside the mainshock slip contour.

Pro-social behavior after a disaster: Evidence from a storm hitting an open-air festival

In the midst of an ongoing nationwide campaign to collect funds for famine relief in Africa, a storm struck a locally famous outdoor music festival in Flanders (Belgium). Five participants died, and several hundreds were wounded. We use this event to determine whether pro-social behavior, measured by donations to the campaign, can be affected by a local disaster. Applying a differences-in-differences identification strategy to campaign contributions at the municipality-day level, we show that, after the event, the municipalities affected by the disaster gave more money to the famine relief in Africa campaign than non-affected municipalities. The effect materialized in the days that followed the disaster and lasted even after the festival organizers had launched their own appeal for donations.

Just Your Local Bisexual Disaster by Andrea Mosqueda

Just Your Local Bisexual Disaster by Andrea Mosqueda

A study on local disaster risk reduction plan (IRAP) prepared in Kahramanmaraş

Afetler yıkıcı etkileriyle ülkeleri vurarak, can ve mal kayıplarına sebep olmakta ve özellikle kentlerde şehrin alt ve üst yapılarında afetin etkisi ölçüsünde zarar verebilmektedir. Kentlerimizi afetlerin yıkıcı etkisi altından kurtarmanın temel anahtarı risk azaltma uygulamalarıdır. Risk azaltmayı kısaca, afetlerin yıkıcı etkileri meydana gelmeden önce tehlikeleri öngörerek, bu tehlikelerin neden olduğu riskleri yok etmek veya minimum seviyede tutmak amacıyla alınması gereken tedbirler ve uygulamalar şeklinde tanımlayabiliriz. 
 Çalışma, afet risk azaltma konusunda yerel düzeyde hazırlanan önemli uygulamaların ilki olan, Kahramanmaraş İl Afet Risk Azaltma Planı (İRAP) hazırlık süreci ve sonuçları üzerine hazırlanmıştır. Çalışmada afet risk azaltma planının hazırlanma süreci, paydaş kurumlarla koordinasyon çalışmaları ve diğer ülkelerden yerel afet risk azaltma planları incelenmektedir. Çalışmada, afet risk azaltma kültürünün yerel düzeyde yaygınlaştırılmasının ülkemiz için önemine değinilerek, yerel düzeyde sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın sağlanması için afet risk azaltmanın gerekliliği konusunda yerel yönetim birimlerine tavsiyeler sunulmaktadır.

Framework for the Priority Actions of Filipino Physical Therapists in Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Introduction: The study was conducted to develop a framework where physical therapists could be integrated into the disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) initiatives of a province in the northern Philippines. Methods: This was a mixed-methods study that utilized a research and development design. A validated questionnaire on the experience and perceptions of DRRM was administered to 20 selected physical therapists. A validated interview guide was administered to 10 local disaster control office head and members. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the quantitative data. Thematic analysis was used to synthesize and examine the qualitative data. Results: Physical therapists were found to have minimal exposure to disaster scenarios due to lack of training and experiences in disaster response. However, the physical therapists perceive that they are prepared to participate in DRRM and should be included. The study also revealed that physical therapists are not part of the local disaster management team because of limited awareness of leaders and members of the disaster control office on the roles of physical therapists in disaster management. Discussion: This study developed an action-oriented framework to guide physical therapists' active involvement in all phases of disaster management. Specific strategies for the priorities for action of physical therapists in DRRM were identified based on the results of the study and its theoretical underpinnings

Community disaster exposure and first onset of depression: A panel analysis of nationally representative South African data, 2008-2017.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unprecedented disasters, with climate change expected to exacerbate the frequency and severity of unpredictable and stressful catastrophic events. Unlike developed nations, reconstruction in developing nations is hindered by resource constraints, with certain communities potentially experiencing multiple and enduring effects of disasters. Despite the potential danger of such cumulative community disaster exposure on mental health (e.g. depression), large-scale population-level evidence for the region is limited. We investigated the association between exposure to cumulative disaster and the first onset of depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa. We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS) from 2008-2017, consisting of 17,255 adult study participants who were depression free at baseline. Risk of first depression onset between individuals exposed and unexposed to community disaster was measured, accounting for multiple disaster exposure over time by fitting generalized estimating equation (GEE) regression models. Data on the geographic location of disasters were obtained from the South African government gazette, and mapped with the government delineated SA-NIDS households' locations. Of the sampled individuals, 2,986 were exposed to disaster during the study duration (17.3%). Increased cumulative community disaster was significantly associated with the likelihood of depression onset (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09-1.33), even after controlling for socio-demographic factors. In sub-group analyses, greater likelihood of depression onset was found among females [but not in men] (aRR = 1.23, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09-1.38), Black African [but not in other population group] (aRR = 1.21, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09-1.36), lower education attainment group [but not in tertiary and above educational attainment group] (aRR = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.08-1.33), and lower income attainment group [but not in the top income quartile group] (aRR = 1.24, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.11-1.38), due to cumulative community disaster. Although cumulative community disaster exposure was significantly associated with the first onset of depression, its negative impact may be more pronounced among individuals considered chronically socially vulnerable (i.e. the groups above) in South Africa. Given that many individuals in South Africa rely on social, food parcel relief, and health services from government/public sector, timely access to community-based supportive intervention is needed for disaster survivors, prioritizing socially vulnerable groups to help mitigate problems associated with mental health challenges.

The Role of Local Disaster Relief Agencies in Influencing Local Government to Make New Spatial Management Local Regulations in Pandeglang Regency

This study aimed to analyze the role of Local Disaster Relief Agencies (LDRA) in influencing the local government of Pandeglang Regency to amend previous regional regulations supporting disaster risk reduction. This research was conducted on the coast of the Sunda Strait, Pandeglang Regency, Banten Province, Indonesia, which was the site of the 2018 tsunami. A qualitative approach including in-depth interviews, direct observation on the field, and documentation based on the values, beliefs, and knowledge of thirteen informants was adopted to support tsunami risk studies by developing local regulations. The results revealed that 1) the utilization of the Sunda Strait coast is not prioritized in disaster risk reduction; 2) implementing the prescribed role as a facilitator between the government and the community and the enacted role based on the reality on the field by conducting a disaster risk study in Pandeglang Regency, where the tsunami disaster becomes a priority disaster to address. With these results, the government and House of Local Representative members can consider changing previous regional regulations into new regional regulations that support efforts to reduce the risk of a tsunami disaster. The practical implications of this research suggest that every LDRA in Indonesia should use the results of disaster risk studies that are tailored to regional disaster priorities to capture the attention of local governments and secure disaster programs to be executed effectively every year.

The local factors: The initiative of a well-informed and experienced community into the inclusive community-fire resilience plan

Abstract The unprecedented crisis of the COVID-19 has informed cities to enhance capacity building of local communities and disaster preparedness. However, an effective plan requires knowledge of a well-informed and experienced community in association with specific factors. In this study, we proposed a new perspective to look into the local factors: community-based planning, well-informed and experienced community, the inclusion of the local community in decision making, taking action on disaster preparedness, and local democracy in dealing with the community’s issues. Thus, the well-informed community members were involved in a participatory event applying the Geographical Information System (GIS) to facilitate knowledge exchange, assess risks, and locate the most vulnerable in the benefits of initiative fire prevention plan for the Meuntoom community, Chiang Mai province, Thailand. The results reveal both vulnerability and capacity that we later used to integrate into the community initiative plan. This research contributes by helping the community address what needs to be improved and which sectors need to work together. The overall results have highlighted opportunities to engage local communities and their knowledge in community-resilient plans, indicating that the outcome to be useful as a starting point for initiative plans for other incoming issues.

The Construction of the Historical Disaster Evidence Database and its Effectiveness

Evidence of past earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods has been discovered during archaeological excavations. The Nara National Research Institute for Cultural Properties (hereafter referred to as “NABUNKEN”) has been constructing and releasing the “Historical Disaster Evidence Database” constructed upon Geographic Information System (GIS; hereafter referred to as “HDE-GISdb”) by compiling disaster evidence information from excavation sites throughout Japan. Through this initiative, we aim to build an information infrastructure that will facilitate not only the elucidation of disaster occurrence mechanisms and local disaster histories but also disaster prevention and mitigation research. This paper discusses the effectiveness of HDE-GISdb using a case study of the Palace and Capital of Nagaoka sites in Kyoto Prefecture to visualize potential hazards, which cannot be read from topography, by disaster evidence recorded in Holocene and Pleistocene deposits.

Flood Risk Perception and Its Attributes among Rural Households under Developing Country Conditions: The Case of Pakistan

Managing and communicating flood risks necessitates a strong understanding of how people perceive risk. It has become critical to examine risk perception to implement effective disaster risk management (DRM) measures. Socioeconomic determinants have an impact on risk perception, which in turn affects future adaptive capacity and disaster preparedness. First and foremost, this research attempts to determine how Pakistani people in rural areas perceive flood risk, and second, to examine the factors that can influence rural residents’ perceptions of flood risk. The data for this study were collected through face-to-face interviews with 600 respondents (household heads) from Charsadda and Nowshera districts that were severely affected by the 2010 flood. A flood risk perception index was developed (using a risk matrix) using relevant attributes on a Likert scale and classified into two categories: high and low perceived risk. Furthermore, a binary regression model was used to examine the influence of socioeconomic and institutional factors on rural households’ risk perception. Flood risk was perceived by 67 percent of the total sampled participants in the study regions. The results of binary logistic regression demonstrate that flood risk perception is strongly linked to socioeconomic variables such as age, education, house ownership, family size, past flood experience, and distance from the nearest river source, as well as institutional factors such as access to credit and extreme weather forecast information. The findings of the current study additionally revealed that flood risk perception varied among household heads based on education (1–10 years perceived high flood risk (51.47%)), age (age greater than 40 years perceived high flood risk (52.83%)), and monthly income levels (lower monthly income group perceived high flood risk (73.02%)). The findings of this study shed light on rural households’ perception of flood risk and the factors that shape such perceptions. These findings can assist provincial and local disaster management authorities in better understanding flood risk and adopting local actions that could be used to respond to flood and other climate-related disasters.

Construction of Urban Flood Disaster Emergency Management System Using Scenario Construction Technology.

Due to the global climate anomaly, ecological environment damage, human activities, and other reasons, flood disaster has become a major threat to mankind. The emergency rescue resources under different subject management and different emergencies have different characteristics, attributes, and management modes, which restrict the unified dispatching, overall management, and efficient utilization of the comprehensive rescue command platform. The frequent occurrence of natural disasters can not only easily affect the public security of society but also pose a great threat to the safety of Chinese people's lives and property. As the first-line person in charge of China's response to natural disasters, local governments cannot deal with natural disasters well. More than thousands of people die from natural disasters in China every year. The economic losses caused amounted to hundreds of billions. The occurrence of various floods and natural disasters not only affects the local economic and social development but also relates to the production and life of the local people, and the stability of the local society and national unity. How to effectively deal with flood disaster is also an important index system to test the execution and management ability of the Party and the government. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply study flood disaster from the theoretical height, hoping to provide reference theoretical support and practical guidance for local county-level government flood disaster emergency management. At the beginning of the urban flood disaster, how to choose an appropriate response plan and implement it in time is an important way to effectively reduce disaster losses. Starting with the basic concept of flood disaster, this study studies and discusses the related theories of flood disaster emergency management, introduces the general situation of flood disaster emergency management, and analyzes the application of scenario construction technology in emergency management.

Climate Change and the Ironies of Omniscience in Rumaan Alam’s Leave the World Behind

Abstract Scholars in ecocriticism have frequently argued that the environmental crisis calls for an overhaul of the realist novel, which is inadequate at conveying the global scale and ramifications of climate change and related anthropogenic disruptions to the Earth system. In this article, I explore how a centerpiece of nineteenth-century realist fiction, the omniscient narrator, may be reimagined to speak to the imaginative challenges of climate change. As the future becomes fragmented in a multiplicity of alternative scenarios (ranging from local disasters to societal collapse), personal and collective anxieties come to the fore. In my case study, Rumaan Alam’s 2020 novel Leave the World Behind, the narrator’s apparent omniscience stages the uncertainties of our climate future through an ironic device: knowledge of the catastrophe experienced by the characters is displayed but also withheld from the reader, leading to an ambivalent, and largely unreadable, narratorial stance. Omniscience is thus used to undermine the possibility of affirming human mastery and control over the unsettling events that are playing out in the storyworld. In this way, Leave the World Behind demonstrates the realist novel’s ability to open itself up to the weird realities of the climate crisis.1

Application of machine learning methods for snow avalanche susceptibility mapping in the Parlung Tsangpo catchment, southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Determining the snow avalanche-prone areas is fundamental for risk mitigation in the snowy mountains of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, especially in the context of current climate warming. We use the Parlung Tsangpo catchment in southeastern Tibet as an example, collect 381 snow avalanches through field surveys. On this basis, two sample sets, three combinations of conditioning factor, and four machine learning algorithms involving Support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), and Multilayer perceptron (MLP) are compared to produce snow avalanche susceptibility maps. The Kappa coefficient and ROC curve are used for the accuracy test. The results show that four basic models all have good prediction capability, and the most robust one is SVM, while the comparative sample set and two comparative combinations of factors underperform. The high snow avalanche-prone areas are mainly distributed at the Ranwu-Yupu section along the National Road 318 in the upper narrow valley section of Parlung Tsangpo River, the ridges of the mountains on both sides of the middle and lower reaches, and the narrow valley sections of the tributaries. The finding not only verifies the applicability of these four machine learning algorithms in the snow avalanche susceptibility mapping, but also points out the key areas for the local snow avalanche disaster reduction and prevention. This study can provide a good reference for other snowy mountainous regions lacking well-documents of snow avalanches.

Looking Over Our Shoulders at Disaster

In a journey spanning almost 20 years the Southern Food & Beverage Museum has become established as a solid and reliable museum and attraction in New Orleans, Louisiana. Its journey to established museum has been fraught with disaster and determination – from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the financial crisis of 2008, the BP Oil Spill, and COVID - to more local disasters like floods and hurricanes. Today it is ready for whatever may happen, as well as prepared with a plan to pivot, innovate, and re-invent itself, all the while deepening its mission and continuing to be the Southern Food & Beverage Museum.

Preservation and Continuation of "Local Ecosystems": The Case of Tokyo's Public Baths

The public bath called sento in Japan has a long history, and it became popular during the Edo Era. There are many sento in urban areas where the population is concentrated, and there are still 500 public baths in Tokyo. A classic sento, designed like a temple imaging heaven, has an architectural presence in the city. These sento not only have a bathing function, but have always played a role as a local community hub, having many possibilities as a safety net for various social problems such as elderly care and childcare, and for social issues such as local disaster resilience. However, in recent years, sento have drastically decreased, due to the spread of in-home baths, the condition of buildings, inheritance problems and so on. In addition sento occupying large pieces of and are prime targets for real-estate developers. The loss of every sento is lamentable, but of even greater concern is the impact on the neighborhood: empty houses without baths are increasingly abandoned, the shops that regular bath customers visited closed, and people stop walking at the street which were illuminated by the light of bathhouse. The area gradually changes and loses its vitality, as sento had supported the "regional ecosystem". On the other hand, young people and medias have shown increased interest in sento . Indeed, the role of a community hub is being reevaluated at a time when the lack of communication has become a major issue. Recently, there are increasing number of cases in which sento are operated as a modern local salon with various functions such as event spaces, and runner stations. At the same time, more and more public baths are converted into shared offices and galleries. There are cases that citizens use local vacant buildings to voluntarily create a community hub instead of a sento. Also, we are trying to convert sento to cultural assets, in order to maintain and revitalize sento, which is a symbol of the local community, and reorganize the local network. In this paper, I would like to consider the future of past heritage in popular culture through examples of sento. How can we visualize and utilize the local ecosystem that extends from a sento to the entire region? In Tokyo, a city with a high metabolism, I will introduce local cultural heritage that should be handed down to the future, using the historical local base like sento as a case study, and present its current status, various trials, and possibilities.

COVID-19 and Its Impact on Course Design of Finance Courses

The continuing COVID-19 crisis is informing global investors, chief finance officers, risk managers, policymakers, regulatory bodies and the public at large that natural disasters can cause economic/financial damage on a previously unprecedented scale. It is different from a potential nuclear war that no one can survive or climate risk that is slow-moving or even localized disasters (Goodell, 2020, Finance Research Letters, Vol. 35, p. 101512). One thing is for sure, for researchers and academics in finance, the crisis brings in challenges that require investigation in almost all disciplines that spin out of core corporate finance and risk management. JEL Codes: G1, G10, G21, I20, I23, I26

Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Extreme Climate Indices in Central China

Using the daily precipitation and temperature data of 101 meteorological stations in four provinces of central China (Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi) from 1988 to 2017, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics and periodicity of nine extreme climate indices in central China, using the predefined methods for analyzing extreme climate events, such as a M-K test, a linear trend analysis, and a wavelet analysis. The extreme climate characteristics and changes in central China in the past 30 years were revealed. The results showed that the CSDI was significantly reduced linearly at a rate of −0.19 d/10a, and the WSDI and TXx increased significantly at rates of 0.25 d/10a and 0.30℃/10a, respectively. The CDD decreased significantly at a rate of −1.67 d/10a. The duration of extreme low-temperature and drought events in central China showed a gradual shortening, while the duration of extreme high-temperature events and the high-temperature values increased. The results of the abrupt climate change test showed that some extreme climate indices in central China had significant abrupt climate changes after 2000. Analyzing the cyclicality of each index, it was determined that the extreme climate index in central China had a significant cyclical change every 2–4 years, and the change was more notable after 2000. Analyzing the spatial distribution of the extreme climate indices, it was determined that Jiangxi had the longest duration of all high-temperature events, and was the largest and longest of events of extreme precipitation. It was also determined that the Jiangxi region was at greater risk of extreme climate events in central China. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for climate change trends, local disaster prevention, and mitigation management in central China.