Abstract
Using the daily precipitation and temperature data of 101 meteorological stations in four provinces of central China (Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi) from 1988 to 2017, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics and periodicity of nine extreme climate indices in central China, using the predefined methods for analyzing extreme climate events, such as a M-K test, a linear trend analysis, and a wavelet analysis. The extreme climate characteristics and changes in central China in the past 30 years were revealed. The results showed that the CSDI was significantly reduced linearly at a rate of −0.19 d/10a, and the WSDI and TXx increased significantly at rates of 0.25 d/10a and 0.30℃/10a, respectively. The CDD decreased significantly at a rate of −1.67 d/10a. The duration of extreme low-temperature and drought events in central China showed a gradual shortening, while the duration of extreme high-temperature events and the high-temperature values increased. The results of the abrupt climate change test showed that some extreme climate indices in central China had significant abrupt climate changes after 2000. Analyzing the cyclicality of each index, it was determined that the extreme climate index in central China had a significant cyclical change every 2–4 years, and the change was more notable after 2000. Analyzing the spatial distribution of the extreme climate indices, it was determined that Jiangxi had the longest duration of all high-temperature events, and was the largest and longest of events of extreme precipitation. It was also determined that the Jiangxi region was at greater risk of extreme climate events in central China. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for climate change trends, local disaster prevention, and mitigation management in central China.
Highlights
Introduction iationsThe Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the average global surface temperature has risen by approximately1 ◦ C compared to 1850–1900, and forecasted that the global average temperature rise is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 ◦ C in the 20 years [1,2]
The purpose of this study was to quantify the changes in extreme events ature and precipitation in the four provinces of central China, from 1988 to 20 ering the impact of continuous extreme climate events, we selected four of climate indices published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which are WSDI, coldperiods periods(WSDI); (CSDI), Consecutive dry days (CDD), and CW
From the spatial distribution map of the six extreme temperature indices in central China (Figure 2), it can be seen that the extreme temperature indices have clear spatial distribution characteristics, and are closely related to latitude and topography
Summary
Introduction iationsThe Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the average global surface temperature has risen by approximately1 ◦ C compared to 1850–1900, and forecasted that the global average temperature rise is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 ◦ C in the 20 years [1,2]. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the average global surface temperature has risen by approximately. When the global temperature rises by 1.5 ◦ C, the frequency of heat waves will increase, the length of the warm season will be extended, and the cold season will be shortened; when the global temperature rises by 2 ◦ C, the high temperature extremes will increase. These changes will cause the critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and human health to be reached more frequently. Issues caused by climate change are temperature-based, but will bring additional combinations of changes to different
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