The uncertainties of cooling load significantly impact the operations performance of building energy systems. A novel interval prediction method is proposed to quantify the uncertainties of cooling load. Due to the cooling load having a similar changing trend from 1:00 to 24:00, a cooling load classification method based on the time of the day is proposed to analyze the uncertainty. Firstly, the gated recurrent unit algorithm is used to construct the point prediction model. Secondly, the kernel density estimation method is employed for probability statistics of prediction error. Moreover, the percentile method constructs the upper and lower bounds of the cooling load prediction interval with given confidence levels. Finally, a commonly used interval prediction method is compared to the proposed method, and a real cooling load dataset is used to assess the prediction method. The results demonstrate that the point prediction model has a mean absolute percentage error of 10.19% in the interval prediction dataset. The interval prediction results illustrate that the prediction interval coverage probability is 91.75%, and the prediction interval normalized average width is 20.83% in the confidence level of 90%. Compared with the commonly used method, the proposed method has a narrower interval.
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