Lithuanian Market Research Articles

Lithuanian students’ choice of university: a consumer value approach

ABSTRACTIncreasing competition within the Lithuanian educational market has paved the way for an analysis of the complex choice processes enrollees undergo in selecting a higher education institution. This research examines the concept of consumer value and its interpretation in the Lithuanian higher education setting. Based on data collected from 445 students of 6 state universities, this study aims to assess the differential impacts of consumer value dimensions and to examine segment-based differences by conducting discriminant analysis. The results indicate that university choice is determined by vocational rather than economic or image-related preferences. However, increasing awareness of the financial aspect is an indication of more informed choices by enrollees to secure a place at university as well as the financial constraints that individual choices impose on the decision-maker. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the applicability of consumer value theory to the higher education sector and encourages a possible re-evaluation of marketing strategies that directly affect prospective enrollees.

FORMATION OF AN INTEGRATED STOCK PRICE FORECAST MODEL IN LITHUANIA

Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

Positive Influencing Factors of Commercial Property Development: Case of Lithuania

Abstract Presently the conditions for the commercial property development in Lithuania are favourable. The market indicators are demonstrating positive tendencies. Many international companies are entering the Lithuanian markets because of the supportive governmental instruments of competitive policy for these international companies. There is high demand for the commercial premises, and the respective governmental authorities are regularly improving the construction procedures. These are the factors, which are affecting the commercial property development activities in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to highlight the factors, which are positively affecting the commercial property development in Lithuania. The key market indicators, supportive instruments for international companies and improvements of the construction procedures in Lithuania are reviewed by the authors, with prime focus on the capital of Lithuania − Vilnius. This paper is intended as guidance to the developers, who are entering the Lithuanian commercial property market.

Old Walls in the Teatralnaya Square

It is noted that the role of the Teatralnaya Square in the urban development of St. Petersburg is still undervalued. The process of its development is shown with the use of maps and fine arts. The end of the 18 — the beginning of the 19 century is marked as the culmination period, when it became a regular area of the classical epoch — the first in St. Petersburg. Here is underlined the method of the ensemble forming — without prior planning, on the basis of strict regulation of building. The special features of the spatial organization of the area are also pointed out, as the inclusion in the composition of the waters of the Kryukov Channel and of longest arcade of the Lithuanian market. It is noted that similar motives have been used later in the project Bourse. It is emphasized the role of the stony Bolshoy Theater as to determine the typological characteristics of the Russian theater buildings of the classicism period. The turning point is called the middle of 19 century: the emergence and subsequent expansion of the theater building onto the bank of the Kryukov Channel led to a gradual loss of signs, that have determined before the image of the Square (the wide space, symmetry, integration of the water area, the visual contact with the opposite bank of the channel, the stylistic unity of the buildings). It is proposed the revaluation of the local area next to Ofitserskaya street where the main authentic walls of the buildings of the end 18 — beginning of 19 century are preserved. Here is noted the possibility to use the same approach to determine the fate of buildings in the historic center of St. Petersburg.

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in food and feed in the Lithuanian market

ABSTRACTFoods and feeds were analyzed during the period of 2007–2014 employing validated and accredited methods based on gas chromatography–high-resolution mass spectrometry. Sampling has been carried out in-line with national monitoring programs as well as during import controls into Lithuania. Food samples such as eggs, milk, beef, pork, poultry, fats of plant and animal origin, fish, cod liver, and feed samples such as premixes, feeds of plant origin, compound feed, mineral feed, vegetable oil, and fish meals were analyzed. Most of the samples exhibited concentrations below maximum limits, except cod liver. Health impacts were assessed in respect to human daily intakes. Data between groups are compared.

Y ir Z kartų darbuotojų atlygio lūkesčiai informacinės visuomenės kontekste

In the context of information society, knowledge and constant desire to learn and improve are regarded as one of the most important skills of employees. Therefore, university studies compared with the secondary and primary education are considered to be the first step towards the future career as well as it may guarantee higher income in the future. However, although it is likely that university studies in conjunction with the selected field of studies in a certain extent can determine the future earnings of the acquired profession, a number of young people overestimate expectations concerning their future rewards.According to the research results, the article examines compensation’s structural elements that influence the younger generation (Y and Z) employees’ job selection, desired salary expectations and economic and non-monetary measure incentives application in the Lithuanian market. Considering the younger employees’ future employment expectations, the article suggests some ideas for the development of human resources management policies in organisations.In order to find out Gen Y and Gen Z employees’ compensation expectations, a quantitative research based on the questionnaire method was conducted. The research included 473 respondents from the Vilnius University Faculty of Economics including bachelor’s and master's degree students from Economics, Management and Business Administration, and Business Information Systems study programs.Based on the empirical results, it was found that flexible working conditions that provide an opportunity for continuous improvement for Gen Y and Gen Z are more important than the salary level.

Macro-determinants of the Lithuanian housing market: a test for Granger causality

ABSTRACTThis research examines the macro-determinants of the Lithuanian housing market. The study employs the Granger causality test to assess the interdependence of a number of macro-variables and the national housing price index. Regardless of the limitations involved with this methodology, the empirical findings suggest that the Lithuanian housing market relates to growth in building activity, interest rates, inflation, and employment. Considering all of these results, the research highlights useful policy implications for property market participants. Investors and developers can employ this information to guide their investment decisions. Likewise, the government and central bank could use this updated knowledge to drive a successful macroeconomic program.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LITHUANIAN SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISK AND EQUITY MARKET

We analyse relationship between Lithuanian sovereign credit risk and equity market. The aim of the paper is to find the impact of the sovereign credit risk, which is expressed in the terms of Credit Default Swaps (CDS), on the movements of stocks prices of Lithuania. We use VAR (vector autoregression) model in order to find the relationship between Lithuanian CDS spread and OMX Vilnius index. We use impulse reaction method to investigate the impact of CDS spreads on the OMX Vilnius index. After analysis of equity index OMX Vilnius and Lithuanian CDS price relationship it was found out that there exists an opposite relationship between these two variables. When the CDS prices are rising, the equity prices decrease and vice versa. The main finding is that Lithuanian capital market returns reacts immediately to the changes of credit risk of Lithuania which is set by the global capital market and expressed by the CDS prices and Lithuanian capital market is under the great foreign pressure.

Evaluation of factors leading to formation of price-bubbles in the real estate market of Lithuania

Recently, real estate market has been discussed more frequently in the framework of economic analysis. The global economic crisis of 2008 has demonstrated the severity of financial shock that can be caused by inconsiderate investments in the real estate market. The present article analyses business cycles and the phenomenon of a price-bubble in that context. Drawing on the analysis of reference literature we identify the main reasons that can lead to fluctuations of prices in the real estate market. Finally, drawing on correlation and regression analysis we determine which factors have the strongest influence on the Lithuanian real estate market.

Effects of consumer behaviour on innovations in fast food industry

The purpose of this study is to examine effects of consumer behaviour on innovation commercialization among fast food restaurants via the analysis of restaurant selection criteria in the Lithuanian fast food market. In today’s global economic competitive environment where innovation is becoming more important, companies need to successfully manage innovations in order to ensure their competitive advantage, exploit new markets and attract customers. There is extensive research in the area of innovation (for instance, Schumpeter, 1934; Drucker, 2002; Lundvall, 2004; Freeman, 1982; Alam and Perry, 2002; Berghman, 2008; Ottenbacher, 2007, 2008 and etc.); however, the literature on the impact of consumer behaviour on commercialization of innovation is not well-established. The paper is innovative and relevant due to the selected fast food industry for analysis. It addresses the question: how does consumer behaviour contribute to innovation processes in the fast food industry and what are the ways to optimize the innovation performance, based on consumer needs? Fast food could be considered as an innovation itself. Nowadays it is not enough to just provide a fast food. Companies need to innovate in order to attract new customers – there is a new trend of healthy fast food, where requirements for fast food companies are very high. The present paper overviews and compares the academic literature on innovation, various classifications of innovation types and innovation process. It also presents the specific trends and issues of the EU system of innovation, choosing the Lithuanian case due to its sensitivity to transformation and rapid improvements, and only then it evolves into a quantitative survey-based study on fast food; restaurant selection criteria.

PREDICTION OF GDP BASED ON THE LAG ECONOMIC INDICATORS

There are several institutions that constantly announce their predictions of general domestic product (GDP) and lots of institutions that use this information. Frequently the forecasts of different institutions vary because they use different methods, but all the institutions for which this indicator is relevant cannot make the predictions themselves because the models are too sophisticated. The main purpose of this research is to create simple enough but also accurate model for prediction of Lithuanian GDP that can be used by all the institutions that need this indicator. The research is based on the economic data that are measured and published quarterly or monthly by Statistics Lithuania. 154 economic indicators were analysed as possible independent variables for regression model creation. The analysis showed that the regression model with twelve lag independent variables can be quite accurate for a short-term prediction of Lithuanian GDP. It can be forecasted by such indexes as the number of immigrants, the turnover of wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, the number of overnight stays in the accommodation establishments, an average hourly earnings, the rate of change in the producer prices of all the industry (except construction) of Lithuanian market, the imports and seasonally adjusted imports, the seasonally adjusted exports, the projected number of employees in the trade enterprises for the next 2–3 months, the industrial production (of all the industry except construction). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.26.2.7003

The Impact of Financial Crisis on the Non-Life Insurance Market in Lithuania : Will the Market Growth Expectations be Met?

The article analyzes the insurance market trends, which have been determined by the financial crisis, and reveals the development features and prospects of non-insurance market, which accounts for almost 70% of the total insurance market, in Lithuania. The obtained results showed that after the market shrank by a quarter in 2009, the insurance sector is recovering, and while the volume of issued insurance premiums increased in 2013, they still remain lower than during the pre-crisis period. 2010 is a distinctive year for the Lithuanian non-insurance market due to a track of unusual abundance of adverse events. Throughout the analyzed period the structure of the non-insurance market issued portfolios remained the same in Lithuania, and throughout the whole analyzed period non-insurance market is dominated by Mandatory Third Party Liability Insurance (MTPLI), Voluntary vehicle insurance (CASCO) and Property insurances, which, according to estimates and analysts' forecasts, have growth potential.

Influence of bitumen chemical composition and ageing on pavement performance

The quality of road bitumen in asphalt mixtures is one of the most important factors affecting performance of the entire pavement structure during its service. In particular, the type and refining technology of the crude oil are the most significant aspects influencing bitumen properties. As the same time it is still necessary to assess other aspects that contribute to the changes in bitumen properties, such as bitumen aging during asphalt mixing, storage, transportation, laying and a gradually increasing oxidation in asphalt pavement structure during pavement service life. Bitumen originating from different producers and supplied to Lithuanian market satisfies the requirements of European standards concerning the basic physical properties, albeit certain instability processes in bitumen properties can be observed: bitumen is more liquid and less sticky at a laying temperature; reduced cohesion, increased cracking during compaction; reduced adhesion between bitumen and mineral materials; changes in perceptible properties (odour, colour), and others. These observations have led to numerous discussions on the potential ways of improving bitumen quality, selection of proper methods for bitumen quality assessment and determination of the recommended threshold values. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effect of bitumen chemical composition and associated structure on asphalt pavement performance. Performance was expressed in terms of susceptibility to rutting measured by the Performance Grade system developed in the US. Based on the results obtained during this experimental study the limit values of bitumen fractional composition were identified.

Impact of Public Announcements on Stock Prices: the Example of Lithuanian Stock Market Considering Values of Stock Prices

The previous studies have shown that there is a relation between values of stock prices and the price changes caused by public announcements. Thus the aim of this paper is to examine if the respective relation can be observed in Lithuanian stock market and how it is affected by different categories of announcements. A simplified version of the event study methodology was used in this paper and the average absolute and abnormal returns were calculated. A negative correlation between the values of stock prices and the price changes caused by public announcements was observed; that is consistent with the previous studies.

Consumer Ethnocentrism and Attitudes towards the Domestic and Foreign-Made Dietary Supplements (the Case of Lithuanian Market)

The paper aims to disclose the relationship between the consumer ethnocentrism and consumer attitudes towards the domestic and foreign-made dietary supplements in the market of Lithuania. The research data have been obtained by using the survey of consumers. The data collected during the research disclose the level of consumers’ ethnocentrism in the Lithuanian market as well as coherence of consumer ethnocentrism to the perceived quality, safety to use and price of national and imported dietary supplements. The article reveals how the factors influencing the choice of dietary supplements vary in consumers’ groups with different level of ethnocentrism.

Mobilios lietuvių nusikaltėlių grupės Nyderlanduose

Since the end of the 1990s, the police in the Netherlands has regularly reported on the criminal activities of Lithuanian itinerant groups as part of the mobile banditry phenomenon. According to the reports, these groups commit crimes against property, they are highly professional and well-organized. In particular, they are involved in vehicle, shop, and cargo theft and burglaries. The present article is based on the research conducted in 2013 and aims to provide explanations and analyses of the historical, socio-economic, and political backgrounds of the ‘itinerant criminal gangs’ phenomenon. The focus is on the gangs from Lithu­ania. The analysis is done from different perspectives: lessons from the past (historical analysis of banditry); the rise of organized crime as a consequence of the collapse of the socialist economy (economic analysis of new markets and clients); the context of globalization, and particularly enlargement of the European Union, the irresistible at­traction of the West and the gap between the wealthy West (the Netherlands) and the poor East (Lithuania) (cultural criminological analysis of the push and pull factors). The precise and detailed description of the modus operandi, structure, leadership, and targets of the Lithuanian groups are illustrated by various quotes of the ‘intern’ re­spondents, from police and justice experts in specific areas in Lithuania and the Neth­erlands to Lithuanian detainees in Dutch prisons. Where are the stolen goods, are they brought back to the Lithuanian market, or further on to the former Soviet republic, or perhaps they are sold to the local Dutch merchants in the local settings? How the con­tacts between Lithuanian and Dutch (or Afghan, Russian, etc.) criminals are created? These questions are answered on the basis of numerous interviews, observations and comparative literature analysis. The last part of the article focuses on the questions how to tackle and combat this rel­atively new form of organized crime and what are the responsibilities of different institu­tions and organizations in this context (in the EU, in the Netherlands, and in Lithuania).

Alternative Investment Funds Implications for Financial Stability in Lithuania

The rapid growth of the AIF assets under management and increasing relative share of these assets in the overall investment fund assets, indicate that AIF successfully established their position in the Lithuanian investment funds market. Due to the specific investment activity AIF are different from other investment funds, they also could be associated with additional threats to the economy and financial system. Private equity and real estate funds invest in the real sector and their impact on the financial system are more indirect, through linkages to the financial market participants. Hedge funds are actively involved in the capital markets, therefore they might have not only indirect but also direct impact on the financial system due to the use of leverage, derivatives or potential occur of crowded trades. Research results has shown that due to the still relatively small volumes of assets under management and high engagement in foreign capital markets (especially hedge funds case), AIF connections with other financial market participants are very low. AIF do not use excess leverage and trading in derivatives is not widespread – only hedge funds use such financial instruments. The high pairwise correlations between hedge funds returns suggest that there is a potential threat to the Lithuanian financial market stability. However because of the small relative share of the hedge funds and their concentration in foreign capital markets, such a threat is only theoretical. Moreover, high level of pairwise correlation coefficients between hedge funds and other investment funds do not determine the growth of the weighted average correlation. It could be added, that AIF in general did not increase values of the weighted average correlation, which could reflect potential crowding in the investment funds market. Bearing in mind small size of the AIF assets under management and fairly conservative type of their activities, it could be concluded, that Lithuanian AIF do not pose a threat to the financial stability.

Increasing the competitiveness of commercial banks on the basis of innovation

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze main innovations in retail banking distribution channels, identify the behavior of customers in Lithuanian market in respect of those innovations and evaluate their effect on Lithuanian commercial banks’ competitiveness. Literature analysis overviews major innovations of distribution channels in retail banking and the theoretical aspects of the effect of those innovations on customer behavior and how they help to better serve changing customer needs. The aim of the research was to understand the needs of Lithuanian commercial banks’ customers in the context of different banking distribution channels, customer behavior tendencies while using those channels, and what is customer opinion on how safe, simple and affordable different channels are. Survey was carried out by asking Lithuanian commercial banks’ customers to fill an online survey. The factor analysis was carried out based on survey results with the purpose to identify main customer segments in respect of different retail banking distribution channels. Factor analysis demonstrates that Lithuanian commercial banks’ customer segments differ very significantly in terms of what are their behavioral habits while using different distribution channels. This signals that in the context of fast development of modern and cost effective distribution channels, traditional distribution channels are still playing a major role in serving customer needs and remaining competitive in the Lithuanian retail banking market. This research could be used as a base for building an effective retail banking distribution channels strategy.

Statistical Analysis of Demographic Aging of the Population

This article covers the following problematic issue: how to predict uncertainties modeling the brand vulnerability? In order to solve the problematic issue a method of brand vulnerability prediction is substantiated theoretically also the empirical methods assisting in implementing them are identified. After carrying out the empirical method based on the Lithuanian market of mass cosmetic products uncertainties modeling brand vulnerability in the mentioned market for the year of 2020 are identified.

Foresight of Brand Vulnerability: The Case of the Lithuanian Market of Cosmetic Products

This article covers the following problematic issue: how to predict uncertainties modelling the brand vulnerability? In order to solve the problematic issue a method of brand vulnerability prediction is substantiated theoretically also the empirical methods assisting in implementing them are identified. After carrying out the empirical method based on the Lithuanian market of mass cosmetic products uncertainties modelling brand vulnerability in the mentioned market for the year of 2020 are identified