Levels Of Turnout Research Articles

Towards Principled Unskewing: Viewing 2020 Election Polls Through a Corrective Lens from 2016

We apply the concept of the data defect index to study the potential impact of systematic errors on the 2020 pre-election polls in 12 presidential battleground states. We investigate the impact under the hypothetical scenarios that (1) the magnitude of the underlying nonresponse bias correlated with supporting Donald Trump is similar to that of the 2016 polls, (2) the pollsters’ ability to correct systematic errors via weighting has not improved significantly, and (3) turnout levels remain similar to 2016. Because survey weights are crucial for our investigations but are often not released, we adopt two approximate methods under different modeling assumptions. Under these scenarios, which may be far from reality, our models shift Trump’s estimated two-party voteshare by a percentage point in his favor in the median battleground state, and increases twofold the uncertainty around the voteshare estimate.

Political engagement and turnout among same-sex couples in Western Europe

This paper presents and addresses a simple, yet overlooked, research question: is there a sexuality gap in political engagement and participation between sexual minority individuals and the heterosexual majority in Western Europe? To answer this question, we employ a recently applied method of identifying lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) individuals using data on the gender composition of cohabiting partner households from the European Social Survey. Relying on a total sample of more than 110,000 individuals across 12 different countries with an identified sample of 1542 LGB individuals, we test the divergence in political interest and political participation, both electoral and non-electoral, between LGB and non-LGB individuals. The results of our empirical analyses conform with our expectations. Theorising that LGBs, as a marginalised social stratum, are incentivised to participate and ‘vote like their rights depended on it’, we find empirical evidence of a significant and positive ‘sexuality gap’ in levels of political interest, turnout and other forms of political participation in Western Europe over and above what can be determined by socio-economic determinants of political participation.

Malta and the 2019 EP elections – maximising popular engagement with “Europe”

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse why Malta continues to show the highest level of turnout for European Parliament (EP) elections in a country where voting is not obligatory. By analysing the Maltese EP elections from 2004 to 2019, the paper seeks to understand why the Maltese engage with a second order election to the degree that they do. Design/methodology/approach The paper is a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, first assessing the context of the 2019 elections, the historical trends and then the factors that help explain why the Maltese continue to engage with EP elections. Findings The paper finds that the Maltese political system, highly polarised and dominated by two parties, primarily galvanises people to engage with elections, that it is more about party leadership than actual engagement with Europe and that second order elections in Malta are often run as first order elections. Originality/value This paper is the only systematic evaluation of the 2019 EP elections in Malta, discusses categorically that EP elections are rarely about Europe while also showing clearly that political parties can make second-order elections appear as first-order elections should the stakes be high enough.

Initiatives without Engagement: A Realistic Appraisal of Direct Democracy’s Secondary Effects

Do ballot initiatives create better citizens? Proponents of direct democracy institutions have long argued that they not only create a more democratically responsive government and public policy but also promote civic engagement in society. Giving citizens a direct role in the legislative process should enhance individuals’ political and policy knowledge, trust in government, political efficacy, and, importantly, participation in elections. Initial empirical evaluations, exemplified by Daniel A. Smith and Caroline Tolbert’s 2004 book Educated by Initiative, tended to support these claims, showing that states with ballot initiatives had higher turnout levels in midterm elections as well as higher levels of political efficacy, trust, and political knowledge. Yet more recent empirical evaluations, including multiple articles by Joshua J. Dyck and Edward L. Lascher Jr., cast doubt on nearly all of these “secondary effects,” with the exception of an increase in voter turnout. The goal of the authors in Initiatives without Engagement is to more comprehensively assess the effects of direct democracy institutions on citizens in the United States and provide a theoretical framework to explain how initiatives may boost participation without enhancing civic engagement.

Puun ja kuoren välissä? Paikallistason poliittisen kilpailun yhteys kuntien talouteen

Kunnat ovat suomalaisen hyvinvointivaltiomallin keskiössä, ja se, miten kunnat hoitavat talouttaan, vaikuttaa koko järjestelmän kestävyyteen. Tässä tutkimuksessa kysymme, millainen yhteys paikallistason poliittisella kilpailulla on vaihteluun kuntien taloustilanteessa. Odotamme, että paikallisen poliittisen järjestelmän kilpailullisuuteen liittyvät muuttujat ovat ei-lineaarisessa yhteydessä keskeisiin julkistaloudellisiin muuttujiin, jotka mittaavat kuntien menojen tasoa ja tulorahoituksen riittävyyttä menojen kattamiseen. Tarkemmin ottaen odotamme, että kohtalainen kilpailun taso suosii lopputuloksia, jotka ovat sopusoinnussa julkisten varojen tehokkaan ja pitkänäköisen käytön kanssa, siinä missä sekä vähäinen että voimakas kilpailu suosivat erityisintressipolitiikkaa ja lyhytnäköisyyttä. Manner-Suomen kunnat vuosina 2001–2014 kattavan aineiston analyysi viittaa siihen, että menojen tason yhteys puoluejärjestelmän hajanaisuuteen on U:n muotoinen. Löydämme myös viitteitä siitä, että tulorahoituksen riittävyys on sitä parempi, mitä korkeampi äänestysprosentti on, mutta tämä yhteys on jokseenkin epävarma.

Moving Forward or Backsliding: A Causal Inference Analysis of the Effects of theShelbyDecision in North Carolina

The Voting Rights Act created a method of oversight called “preclearance,” which was designed to prevent changes in state and local voting laws that may negatively affect minority groups. Following the ruling in Shelby County v. Holder, however, preclearance is no longer enforced. This study assesses the impact of recently implemented local voting restrictions on turnout across various demographic and political subgroups in North Carolina. Unlike other states, preclearance in North Carolina was implemented at the county level. Two approaches to the regression discontinuity-design are used to estimate de facto minority disenfranchisement. This study finds that the removal of Section 5 preclearance negatively affected Democratic primary turnout, but did not affect Democratic vote share. Secondary effects resulting in the removal of Section 5 preclearance may be responsible for disproportionately lower levels of overall turnout in formerly covered counties in 2016. Ultimately, the data suggest minimal effects on minority turnout rates.

On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

Prominent theory research on voting uses models in which expected pivotality drives voters’ turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs’s paradox: in practice, many individuals turn out for reasons unrelated to pivotality, and their votes overwhelm the forces analyzed in pivotality-based models. Accordingly, we examine a complementary model of large- N elections at the opposite end of the spectrum, where pivotality effects vanish and turnout is driven entirely by individuals’ direct costs and benefits from the act of voting itself. Under certain conditions, the level of turnout is irrelevant to representativeness and thus to voting outcomes. Under others, however, “anything is possible”: starting with any given distribution of preferences in the underlying population, there can arise any other distribution of preferences in the turnout set and thus any outcome within the range of the voting mechanism. Particular skews in terms of representativeness are characterized. The introduction of noise in the relationship between underlying preferences and individuals’ direct costs and benefits from voting produces, in the limit, fully representative turnout. To illustrate the potential disconnect between the level of turnout (a focus of much empirical literature) and representativeness, we present a simple example in which, as noise increases, the turnout level monotonically falls yet representativeness monotonically rises.

Persistent Legacies of the Empires: Partition of Poland and Electoral Turnout

During the long nineteenth century, Poland was divided among the Russian, Habsburg, and Prussian empires. The partition produced regional diversity in political culture and in institutional and economic development. We examine how the cultural legacies of the empires have influenced the propensity of Poles to cast a ballot in parliamentary elections since 1989. Polish National Election Study individual-level data are used to assess whether higher levels of electoral turnout in Galicia are indeed a legacy of the Habsburg rule. Our results confirm that, even after controlling for socio-demographic factors, there is a positive, substantive, and significant effect on turnout of living in the ex-Habsburg part of Poland. This effect can be explained by the frequency of religious service attendance and by ideology. Inhabitants of Galicia not only attend religious services more frequently and are more conservative than their counterparts in the rest of Poland, but also the more frequently they attend church and the closer to the radical right they place themselves, the more mobilized they are to vote. The impact of the legacies of the empires on political behavior in Poland seems persistent.

The effects of amalgamations on voter turnout: Evidence from sub-municipal governments in Portugal

The 2013 territorial reform of sub-municipal units (SMUs) of government in Portugal presents an interesting opportunity to understand the effect of amalgamations on democratic outcomes. Like other reforms of its kind, the Portuguese amalgamation reform was triggered by economic motivations, aimed at improving local services but seeking mostly to reduce the level of public expenditures. Much less relevance was given to the political impacts of territorial consolidation. The aim of this research is to assess the impacts of the Portuguese territorial reform on political participation measured as voter turnout in SMU elections. We use data from five election cycles (2001–2017) to compare turnout levels in amalgamated jurisdictions vis-à-vis the ones that did not amalgamate as a result of the process of territorial reform. The results of this quasi-experimental design indicate that turnout levels after the reform have decreased in the 2013 election and recovered in the 2017 election, but the negative effects were much more pronounced in amalgamated SMUs than in non-amalgamated SMUs.

Conformity and Individuals\u2019 Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout

How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’ degree of conformity. We argue that in addition to the classic calculus of voting, conformist voters have an added incentive to ‘follow the pack’ and vote when turnout is high while abstain when turnout is low. We conduct two separate experiments, the first a survey experiment with a representative sample of the UK population and the second a lab experiment in Canada. Both studies confirm our hypothesis. These findings highlight the importance of taking individuals’ level of conformity into account when explaining their decision to vote or abstain.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ЭТНИЧЕСКОГО ФАКТОРА НА ИТОГИ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЬНЫХ КАМПАНИЙ В ВОСТОЧНОЙ СИБИРИ

Indigenous peoples of Eastern Siberia have a controlled electoral culture, which affects the election results. It expresses in a high level of turnout and specific political preferences. In this regard, the degree of interconnection of the ethnic component with the two above indicators is analyzing using the correlation analysis of mathematical statistics.

Spaceu2019 Final Report

In occasion of the European Parliament elections of 2019, the EUI in collaboration with the University of Lucerne in Switzerland launched project spaceu2019, a two-fold online tool specifically tailored for mobile EU citizens voting either in their country of citizenship or residence. The first pillar consists of an interactive database, informing users on their electoral rights and allowing them to compare the conditions and requirements for participating in the political process of their country of residence or citizenship. The second pillar is euandi2019, a Voting Advice Application (VAA) helping citizen find the political party that best matches their policy preferences. The main objective was to create a more aware European-wide, politically active citizenry, therefore making the EP elections more relevant and transnational. This also may have helped getting citizens out to vote, given that EP elections are traditionally prone to particularly low levels of turnout. The main target group were EU mobile citizens as well as those with a dual citizenship, but also European citizens at large as this device is open to all and gives useful information on how to vote, and which parties are the best match, to static citizens as well. The project received funding by the European Union’s Rights, Equality and Citizenship Programme (2014-2020), Grant Agreement number 785683. This report provides information on the implementation and usage figures for both online tools.

Электоральная активность на муниципальных выборах в посткоммунистических странах

In this article, the electoral turnout in the municipal elections held in post-communist states is compared. Using correlation analysis, comparing electoral turnout and its change as well as municipal/national electoral gap, the authors reveal principal features of the electoral behavior in the local elections. The study shows that the electoral turnout is not affected by the level of political competition and a size of municipalities either in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) or in Russia. However, the turnout itself which is usually low can be explained with the use of the second-order elections theory. At the same time, the ongoing change does not prove the increasing number of disinterested or disappointed voters in some of the consolidated CEE democracies. On the contrary, a number of CEE states demonstrate a growing interest of voters towards a local government, sometimes by contrast with a real disappointment in national politics. Indeed, more successful democracies in the Northern part of Central and Eastern Europe usually deliver a higher turnout level. In Russian cities, the crucial influence of pro-regime mobilization is in evidence, while poorly developed civic culture of participation depresses the turnout. As a result, under conditions of weak interest of Russian authorities to boost turnout in the local elections, Russia experiences a natural decline in voter turnout also reflecting poor social efficiency of municipal authorities, which puts the country seriously behind CEE in terms of electoral turnout. Thus, the more successful consolidation of democracy in the CEE states has created a turning point between growing and falling interest in local elections in different states and/or cities depending on individual political developments at the national level. Meanwhile, Russia experiences its own “natural” development resulting in falling local turnout caused by the lack of interest both from local communities and authorities.

It's a (coarsened exact) match! Non-parametric imputation of European abstainers' vote

AbstractThere is a long tradition of imputation studies looking at how abstainers would vote if they had to. This is crucial for democracies because when abstainers and voters have different preferences, the electoral outcome ceases to reflect the will of the people. In this paper, we apply a non-parametric method to revisit old evidence. We impute the vote of abstainers in 15 European countries using Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM). While traditional imputation methods rely on the choice of voters that are on average like abstainers, and simulate full turnout, CEM only imputes the vote of the abstainers that are similar to voters, and allows to simulate an electoral outcome under varying levels of turnout, including levels that credibly simulate compulsory voting. We find that higher turnout would benefit social democratic parties while imposing substantial losses to extreme left and green parties.

Praying on Friday, voting on Sunday? Mosque attendance and voter turnout in three West European democracies

ABSTRACTSeveral studies have demonstrated a positive association between regular church attendance and turning out to vote in established democracies. This paper examines whether the relationship holds for Muslims who regularly attend religious services. Using an original dataset of Muslim-origin citizens in Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, I find that regular mosque attendance is indeed associated with higher likelihood to vote in national elections in Germany and the United Kingdom, while among Dutch Muslims turnout is positively associated with individual religiosity. I find evidence that the proposed association between regular mosque attendance and voting is mediated through the acquisition of relevant political information and stronger associational involvement. The paper provides an individual-level analysis complementing studies of country-level institutional particularities and group-level characteristics that are conducive to higher levels of turnout among Muslims. The findings dispel the myth that mosques are sites of civic alienation and self-segregation, but can, in fact, play the role of ‘schools of democracy’.

Efeitos de competição, gastos de campanha e fragmentação eleitoral sobre comparecimento e votos válidos nas eleições municipais brasileiras em 2012

Este artigo investiga fatores associados aos níveis de comparecimento eleitoral, em especial, variáveis políticas contextuais. O argumento é de que, com o enfraquecimento de condicionantes duradouros, como os sociodemográficos e os sociopsicológicos, devemos atentar ao efeito de curto prazo da conjuntura sobre a participação eleitoral. O estudo desse efeito ainda é incipiente no Brasil e na América Latina. A expectativa inicial era de que competição, gastos de campanha e fragmentação estivessem associados positivamente com a participação eleitoral agregada. Essa hipótese foi testada por meio de modelos lineares multivariados nas eleições para prefeito de 2012. Os resultados confirmam essa hipótese em relação à competição e aos gastos de campanha, com mais força ainda sobre os votos válidos se comparados ao comparecimento em si. Porém, os resultados apontam um efeito negativo da fragmentação.

Salient Ballot Measures and the Millennial Vote

We explore the relationship between ballot measures on issues salient to Millennials and their turnout in presidential and midterm elections. Both scholars and observers in the media have worried about decreasing levels of citizen participation, particularly among young voters. We demonstrate that one way to engage Millennials into traditional forms of political participation is through ballot measures that focus on issues salient to their generation (marijuana liberalization and higher education reform). We show that not only do these measures increase Millennial voting, but they erase difference in turnout levels between Millennials and older generations. This effect is primarily concentrated in low-turnout contexts such as midterm elections, indicating that these measures may be playing a similar mobilization role in midterm elections as presidential campaigns do in turnout out low-propensity voters.

Do Surveys Overestimate or Underestimate Socioeconomic Differences in Voter Turnout? Evidence from Administrative Registers

AbstractSurveys generally overestimate the overall level of voter turnout in elections due to both the misreporting of voting and nonresponse. It is sometimes argued that socioeconomic differences in turnout are exaggerated in surveys because social desirability has a more pronounced effect on eligible voters in more advantaged socioeconomic positions. However, the contribution of nonresponse bias has not been taken into consideration in these assessments. Using a register-linked survey with information on the education, occupational social class, income, and voting in the 2015 Finnish parliamentary elections of both respondents and nonrespondents, this study shows that nonresponse bias leads to not only a larger overestimation of the overall level of turnout than social desirability, but also an underestimation of educational, social class, and income-related differences in the propensity to vote. Socioeconomic differences in the probability of voting in register-based data were at least two-thirds larger than differences obtained when using standard survey techniques. This finding implies that socioeconomic inequality in electoral participation is a more pressing social problem than previous evidence might indicate.

The good, the bad and the ugly: Three faces of social media usage by local governments

This article explores the determinants of local governments' use of social networking sites. It does so by analysing the relative impact of institutional, political and social determinants, while controlling for the impact of mayors' traits and social characteristics of municipalities on local governments levels of activity on Facebook. Empirically, this article presents a within-case analysis of Portuguese municipalities' activity on social media, aiming to shed light on the strategic use of social media by local governments. A coherent picture associated with politically pro-active local governments emerges from the results: higher levels of social media activity appear in municipalities with more competitive local elections and higher commitment to transparency. Moreover, findings suggest that local governments tend to be concerned with the low levels of voter turnout, potentially resorting to social media as a powerful tool to increase civic engagement and (offline) political participation. Levels of Facebook activity are significantly higher in larger and wealthier municipalities. The results indicate that Facebook official pages of municipalities are part of a larger arsenal of tools to promote political engagement and activity levels signal a propensity to involve citizens pro-actively.

Disruptive Norms: Assessing the Impact of Ethnic Minority Immigration on Nonimmigrant Voter Turnout Using a Complex Model

This article explores whether introducing an external group into a population with different characteristics to the existing population may lead to behavioral change. Specifically, we test whether introducing ethnic minority immigrants with varying levels of civic duty (commitment to voting) norms into a previously homogenous nonimmigrant ethnic majority population influences voter turnout among the nonimmigrant majority group. The findings have been produced using a complex agent-based model (“the voter model”) where the parameters and characteristics have been developed through the extensive synthesis of existing findings from real-world social science research on voter turnout. The model adopts the KIDS (“Keep It Descriptive Stupid”) approach to this form of modeling complex systems. The model puts a particular emphasis on exploring the dynamic social aspects that influence turnout by focusing on the role of networks and spatial composition factors such as ethnic diversity and levels of internal and external immigration. It uses an approach based on aggregative neighborhood dynamics to go beyond existing static models of the influence of social norms on voting similar to the classic approach of Schelling. The main findings from this article suggest that, other factors being equal, increased levels of immigration lead to a small but significant increase in turnout among the nonimmigrant population and show that higher levels of civic duty among immigrants lead to higher levels of turnout among nonimmigrants over time. This challenges the popular belief that increased immigration and diversity in a specific community will always lead to lower turnout levels.