Электоральная активность на муниципальных выборах в посткоммунистических странах

Abstract

In this article, the electoral turnout in the municipal elections held in post-communist states is compared. Using correlation analysis, comparing electoral turnout and its change as well as municipal/national electoral gap, the authors reveal principal features of the electoral behavior in the local elections. The study shows that the electoral turnout is not affected by the level of political competition and a size of municipalities either in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) or in Russia. However, the turnout itself which is usually low can be explained with the use of the second-order elections theory. At the same time, the ongoing change does not prove the increasing number of disinterested or disappointed voters in some of the consolidated CEE democracies. On the contrary, a number of CEE states demonstrate a growing interest of voters towards a local government, sometimes by contrast with a real disappointment in national politics. Indeed, more successful democracies in the Northern part of Central and Eastern Europe usually deliver a higher turnout level. In Russian cities, the crucial influence of pro-regime mobilization is in evidence, while poorly developed civic culture of participation depresses the turnout. As a result, under conditions of weak interest of Russian authorities to boost turnout in the local elections, Russia experiences a natural decline in voter turnout also reflecting poor social efficiency of municipal authorities, which puts the country seriously behind CEE in terms of electoral turnout. Thus, the more successful consolidation of democracy in the CEE states has created a turning point between growing and falling interest in local elections in different states and/or cities depending on individual political developments at the national level. Meanwhile, Russia experiences its own “natural” development resulting in falling local turnout caused by the lack of interest both from local communities and authorities.