Studies into the evolution and development of leaf shape have connected variation in plant form, function, and fitness. For species with consistent leaf margin features, patterns in leaf architecture are related to both biotic and abiotic factors. However, for species with inconsistent leaf shapes, quantifying variation in leaf shape and the effects of environmental factors on leaf shape has proven challenging. To investigate leaf shape variation in a species with inconsistently shaped leaves, we used geometric morphometric modeling and deterministic techniques to analyze approximately 500 digitized specimens of Capsella bursa-pastoris collected throughout the continental United States over 100 years. We generated a morphospace of the leaf shapes and modeled leaf shape as a function of environment and time. Leaf shape variation of C. bursa-pastoris was strongly associated with temperature over its growing season, with lobing decreasing as temperature increased. While we expected to see changes in variation over time, our results show that the level of leaf shape variation was consistent over the 100 years. Our findings showed that species with inconsistent leaf shape variation can be quantified using geometric morphometric modeling techniques and that temperature is the main environmental factor influencing leaf shape variation.
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