Latino Candidates Research Articles

Assessment of Churn in Coverage Among California’s Health Insurance Marketplace Enrollees

Individual health insurance marketplaces established through the Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) fill a critical gap for those who lack other coverage options. The high degree of coverage turnover, or churn, has raised concerns about affordability and strategic behavior on the part of individuals to sign up only when they need care. To assess the role of California's ACA marketplaces in the broader health care landscape by understanding enrollment tenure and churn. This cross-sectional study analyzed survey data from a representative, probability-based sample of enrollees in California's ACA marketplace, Covered California, collected immediately after the open enrollment periods in 2018, 2019, and 2021. Administrative data from Covered California from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2021, were used to analyze marketplace tenure. Survey data included 9571 heads of households aged 18 to 64 years who were newly enrolled or had recently terminated their plan, directly drawn from Covered California's administrative records. Administrative data included individuals up to age 65 years who enrolled in the marketplace during 2014 to 2021. New enrollment in or termination from health care coverage through California's ACA marketplace. Enrollment tenure in California's ACA marketplace, sources of coverage prior to enrolling and after terminating coverage, and demographic or plan characteristics associated with the decision to go uninsured. Median (IQR) length of coverage among 5.4 million enrollees (mean [SD] age, 38 [16] years; 17% Asian American/Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, 2.5% Black or African American, 23% Latino [response options were Hispanic, Spanish, or Latino origin], 29% White, 7.5% categorized as other [including American Indian/Alaskan Native, multiple races, and other], and 21% of unknown race or ethnicity) was 14 (6-35) months, and 41% to 46% of enrollees disenrolled within 1 year, with substantial variation by subgroups. Despite this churn, only 14% (95% CI, 12%-15%) of 6474 terminating members surveyed across 3 years (2018, 2019, and 2021) reported being uninsured after leaving the marketplace, with the rest moving to job-based coverage or Medicaid. Most of those surveyed (mean [SE] percentage, 56% [0.016] individuals) reported having had employer-sponsored insurance or Medicaid prior to enrolling in the marketplace. Among subsidized renewal candidates, Latino candidates were 1.5 percentage points (95% CI, 0.8-2.3 percentage points) more likely to go uninsured compared with White candidates, and those with no expected physician visits in the coming year were 4.8 percentage points (95% CI, 2.4-7.2 percentage points) more likely to go uninsured vs those who expected physician visits. The results of this cross-sectional study of coverage churn found that ACA marketplaces served 2 distinct types of individuals, long-term enrollees but, more often, individuals with short-term-coverage needs due to a change in eligibility for other insurance. These results suggest that marketplaces are smoothing coverage disruptions and that policies to reduce gaps in coverage should be designed with this in mind.

The Conditional Effects of Latino Candidates and Partisanship on Latino Turnout

Does the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increase Latino turnout? An ongoing debate exists regarding the mobilizing effect of Latino candidates on Latino turnout. However, scholars on both sides of this divide have, as of yet, failed to detect the critical role that a Latino candidate’s partisanship may have on Latino turnout. Using national turnout data and leveraging the exogenous shock of redistricting between 2010 and 2012, we find evidence that while the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increases turnout among Latino co-partisans, the presence of Latino congressional candidates who do not share the partisan identity of Latino voters depresses turnout. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of the reinforcing power of shared partisan and pan-ethnic identities in empowering Latinos to vote.

Finding the missing link? The impact of co-ethnicity, pan-ethnicity, and cross-ethnicity on Latino vote choice

Surveys show that Latinos more strongly identify with their ethnic identities (i.e. national origin) than their pan-ethnic identity as “Latino/Hispanic.” Given the primacy of ethnic identity among Latinos, what impact does shared ethnic versus pan-ethnic identity between candidates and voters have on Latino vote choice? Studies suggest that an “identity-to-politics link” exists among Latinos; however, we believe the measurement of “co-ethnicity” should be reexamined. Using a survey experiment embedded in a module of the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we randomize the ethnic, pan-ethnic, and partisan identification of a fictional male congressional candidate in a contest against a white non-Hispanic candidate to examine the role of shared ethnic identity on Latino vote choice. We find that Latinos, regardless of candidate partisanship, more strongly support co-ethnic candidates relative to candidates with whom they share a pan-ethnic identity. We also find that Latinos are significantly more supportive of a cross-ethnic Latino candidate compared to a pan-ethnic Latino candidate; and that Latinos are more likely to cross partisan lines to support a co-ethnic candidate. These results not only suggest that there exists a Latino “identity to politics” link, but that the extant scholarship has underestimated the size and scope of this electoral connection.

Háblame de tí: Latino mobilization, group dynamics and issue prioritization in the 2020 Election

Abstract What motivated Latinos to turnout in 2020 in the middle of a global health pandemic that has devastated their community financially, physically and mentally? How might we explain Latino support for each one of the Presidential candidates in the context of these crises? In this paper, we tackle these questions through an investigation of the factors that drove Latino turnout in 2020 and what might explain Latino favorability for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. To contextualize these findings, we compare these results to the 2016 election. We find that the most predictive factors of Latino turnout in 2020 were perceived group discrimination and mobilization efforts by campaigns and other organizations. We also find that Latino candidate preference in 2020 can be best explained by issue prioritization. Latinos for whom the economy was the most important issue were more likely to support Donald Trump. However, Latinos for whom COVID-19 and racism towards the Latino community were the top pressing political priorities were more likely to favor Joe Biden. These findings continue to shed light on the diversity and heterogeneity of the Latino vote and speak to the significance of outreach efforts by political parties, candidates and community organizations.

Ethnic Cues, Latino Skin Tone, and Voter Preferences: An Experimental Test

ObjectiveResearch suggests that voters rely on cognitive heuristics to simplify the evaluative process. Such heuristics include candidate race and other visible characteristics. We set out to test whether Americans use Latino ethnicity as a heuristic to evaluate candidates, and whether the darkness of Latino candidates’ skin tone influences these judgments. Finally, we examine individual‐level partisan differences in the application of these heuristics.MethodsWe leverage a large sample posttest experimental design that manipulates candidate ethnicity and skin tone.ResultsSome respondents in our sample clearly use ethnicity as a heuristic but skin tone does not seem to matter. Democrats evaluated Latino candidates, regardless of skin tone, more positively than they did a white candidate. Republicans seemed immune to ethnic cues or skin tone.ConclusionThese results shed light on how Latino ethnicity shapes voter preferences, but these tests need to be extended to cross‐sectional data.

Many are called but few are chosen: the emergence of Latino congressional candidates

ABSTRACT Prior work has shown that Latino candidates do not under-perform compared to other candidates, and that Latino underrepresentation is a function of supply rather than demand (Juenke, Eric Gonzalez. 2014. “Ignorance Is Bias: The Effect of Latino Losers on Models of Latino Representation.” American Journal of Political Science 58 (3): 593–603; Juenke, Eric Gonzalez, and Paru Shah. 2015. “Not the Usual Story: the Effect of Candidate Supply on Models of Latino Descriptive Representation.” Politics, Groups, and Identities 3 (3): 438–453). Building on this work we investigate what factors influence the prospects of Latino candidates from the supply side. Examining candidate emergence from the supply side requires that we examine not only the winners and losers, but also those who could have entered a pool of candidates but did not. Using an original dataset of latent and primary candidates running for U.S. House seats from 2004 to 2014, we show that Latino candidacy at the pre-emergence stage is sensitive to potential challengers and that party elites under-support Latino candidates relative to others. Latinos are predicted to receive fewer endorsements than non-Latinos, and those endorsements influence candidates’ chances of winning office. Our findings suggest that the poor integration of Latinos into partisan networks is largely responsible for their limited presence in candidate pools and elected office.

The Mediating Role of Information Search in the Relationship Between Prejudice and Voting Behavior

Evidence on the extent to which prejudice serves as a barrier to black and Latino candidates for office is mixed. Some research has found that black and Latino candidates are disadvantaged in terms of their chances of winning election and that they are evaluated differently by voters, while other findings suggest that this may not be the case. This article examines the effects of racial prejudice on candidate evaluation and voting behavior. It uses a unique experimental design to test for direct effects of prejudice on candidate evaluation and voting behavior, as well as indirect effects of prejudice on these variables via the information that subjects seek out. I find that subjects higher in symbolic racism are less likely to vote “correctly” when their preferences most closely align with a black or Latino candidate and that they rate minority candidates more negatively than their white counterparts. I also find that subjects high in prejudice search for less information about minority candidates and that this less robust information search mediates the relationship between prejudice and candidate evaluation and vote measures. Results also suggest that increased information search may mitigate the effects of prejudice on correct voting.

Was it race or merit?: The cognitive costs of observing the attributionally ambiguous hiring of a racial minority.

This study investigated individual and situational factors that may make observing positive treatment of an ingroup member attributionally ambiguous and cognitively taxing for ethnic minority perceivers. 163 Latino/a participants who varied in the perception that Whites are externally motivated to behave positively toward minorities (Perceived External Motivation Scale; PEMS) observed a Latino candidate selected over 2 White candidates by a White Human Resources officer. The selected candidate was or was not the most qualified and a diversity rationale was or was not provided. Participants subsequently performed a test of cognitive interference. When a less-qualified minority candidate was selected, the presence (vs. absence) of a diversity rationale increased cognitive interference among low PEMS participants, but decreased cognitive interference among high PEMS participants. Results suggest that a diversity rationale made the selection of a less qualified minority more ambiguous for low PEMS but less ambiguous for high PEMS participants. The present study informs our understanding of when and for whom Whites' positive behavior is perceived as attributionally ambiguous. (PsycINFO Database Record

Multicultural Matters: An Investigation of Key Assumptions of Multicultural Education Reform in Teacher Education

Five decades of rhetoric and reform in teacher education underscore the importance of multicultural education in preparing teachers to meet the needs of all students. State and national policy initiatives targeting multicultural education build on two assumptions: first, that preservice teachers lack the multicultural awareness to function as culturally responsive educators, and second, that higher levels of multicultural awareness correspond with increased pedagogical proficiency. Few studies have examined variation in multicultural awareness across preservice candidates, or the link between multicultural awareness and prospective teachers’ measured competencies. Using a novel dataset of 2,500 preservice teachers’ beliefs and student teacher performance assessments, we find that Black and Latino candidates report greater multicultural awareness, while Asian Americans report less, compared with their White counterparts. Prior experience working with nondominant populations is linked with higher levels of awareness, particularly for minority respondents. Propensity score matching analyses reveal that multicultural awareness is tied to candidates’ competence in creating nurturing classroom environments.

Owning Immigration: Messenger Ethnicity, Issue Ownership, and Support for Latino Candidates

AbstractThe public opinion literature stresses the importance of source cues in determining which types of messages affect attitudes and which types do not. Building upon such research, we seek to determine if messenger ethnicity influences how individuals evaluate candidates speaking on immigration in the context of a campaign. Do Americans (and Anglo Americans in particular) view Latino candidates as more experienced, stronger leaders, more trustworthy, and more qualified on immigration than Anglo candidates? Moreover, do such relationships hold regardless of the valence of the message itself? Through an original survey experiment presenting subjects with immigration talk on the campaign trail, we find Latino candidates are reviewed more positively than Anglo candidates when it comes to the immigration messages they speak (especially when it comes to pro-immigration messages). Such findings give us insight into whether or not Latino candidates have the potential to “own” the issue of immigration, as well as offering another path by which Latino candidates can gain a strong foothold with the public in the context of a campaign.

Asian Candidates in America

Racial stereotyping has been found to handicap African American and Latino candidates in negative ways. It is less clear how racial stereotypes may change the fortunes of Asian candidates. This paper explores the candidacies of Asian Americans with an experiment run through Amazon Mechanical Turk as well as real-world evaluations of Asian American candidates using the Cooperative Congressional Elections Study. In my experiments, I find that Asian candidates do significantly better than white candidates across different biographical scenarios (conservative, liberal, and foreign). I find that, contrary to expectations, Asian candidates are not significantly disadvantaged from being immigrant and foreign born. My experimental results mirror my observational results, which show that Asian Democrats are significantly advantaged even when compared with whites. These results indicate that Asian candidates in America face a set of racial-political stereotypes that are unique to their racial subgroup.

Chameleon politics: social identity and racial cross-over appeals

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we challenge the existing framework which argues that ethnic cues essentially operate for Latino candidates but not for Anglo/non-Latino candidates. Instead, we suggest that Anglo candidates can tap into Latino shared-identity by employing social-identity bridging mobilization during their campaigns. Using measures that gauge policy, culture, and mobilization, we examine what drives Latino support for presidential candidate Jeb Bush. We find that support for Bush increases among Latino voters who prefer Anglo candidates who mobilize voters using social-identity bridging. We corroborate our results with an analysis of real-world voting behavior of recent senate and gubernatorial elections, finding that candidates who make more appeals to the Latino community by minimizing the social space do considerably better than candidates who do not do this. Implications are discussed.

Not the usual story: the effect of candidate supply on models of Latino descriptive representation

Most of the literature on descriptive representation focuses on voters and the choices they make during an election. Missing from this scholarship, however, is a more complete picture of when and where minority candidates are on the ballot. In this study, we focus on the context in which Latinos are on the ballot in state legislative elections, and the relationship between winning and district composition. We present results using a unique data-set from the 2012 general elections that allows us to compare and contrast empirical analyses and predictions with and without the censoring effect of Latino candidate supply. The findings challenge the traditional role of majority–minority districts, and show quite decisively that descriptive representation is not only a demand problem, as it has been understood for the last few decades, but also a problem of minority candidate supply.

How support for Latino candidates encourages municipal reforms: evidence from the Local Elections in America Project

Scholarship rightfully emphasizes how electoral institutions affect minority representation and policy outcomes. But how do racial and ethnic environments shape institutions? We address this question by examining how support for Latino candidates affects attempts to modify rules regarding governance and elections. To do so, we rely on new data from the Local Elections in America Project and the International City/County Management Association. We find that the percentage of votes that go to Latino candidates, as well as changes over time in Latino vote share, predicts the probability that a reform effort will take place. Both relationships are nonlinear and suggest a high degree of strategic behavior on the part of elite actors within cities.

Asian Candidates in America: An Experimental and Observational Look

Racial stereotyping has been found to handicap African-American and Latino candidates in negative ways (Terkildsen 1993, Sigelman 1995). It is less clear how racial stereotypes may change the fortunes of Asian candidates. This paper explores the candidacies of Asian Americans with an experiment run through Amazon Mechanical Turk as well as real world evaluations of Asian-American candidates using the Cooperative Congressional Elections Study. In my experiments, I find that Asian candidates do significantly better than white candidates across different biographical scenarios (conservative, liberal, and foreign). I find that, contrary to expectations, Asian candidates are not significantly disadvantaged from being immigrant and foreign born. My experimental results mirror my observational results, which show that Asian Democrats are significantly advantaged even when compared to whites. These results indicate that Asian candidates in America face a set of racial-political stereotypes that are unique to their racial subgroup.

Attitudes Towards Candidate Traits: The Case of Latinos in Dallas

This paper evaluates a Latino voter’s attitudes towards a candidate’s race and gender. This research uses data gathered in the Dallas County during the historical 2008 presidential election. The data used was obtained from 767 exit polls at precincts located in the 103 and 104 districts in Texas. The data captured the public opinion of the ever-growing Latino city and a county that are under a major demographic transition. The survey unfolds a combination of socio-economic, demographic and cultural variables that are predicted by theory to be significant influencers of a voter’s attitudes towards a political candidate’s traits. I evaluate how well the socio-economic, demographic and cultural predictors explain a Latino’s attitudes towards an African American, a Latino and a woman candidate. This paper is also one of the few existing works that looks at Latinos attitudes towards an African American candidate. The findings from the 2008 presidential election may allow us to explore Latino attitudes towards an African American, Latino and/or woman candidates.

Framing Power: Comparing U.S. Newspaper Visuals of Latino and Non-Latino Candidates

Despite political representation remaining below Latinos’ share of the population, no research has solely compared news coverage between Latino candidates and non-Latino candidates. This study content analyzed 815 newspaper photographs and 608 photograph-associated headlines of Latino candidates and non-Latino candidates in 14 newspapers during the last 2 months of 4 statewide elections between 2003 and 2008 in the U.S. Southwest. Overall, newspaper treatment of Latino and non-Latino candidates competing for statewide office was similar by state. Similarities in newspaper coverage may be explained by institutional policies of balance and news workers viewing Latino senatorial and gubernatorial candidates as equally legitimate and important because of Latinos’ continuous presence and large proportion of the population in the U.S. Southwest.

Latino Identity in Contexts of Threat: The Determinants of Vote Choice in Response to Explicit and Implicit Cues in Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric

This paper engages with the important question of how exposure to explicit and implicit cues within anti-immigrant political messages shape the voting decisions of non-Mexican Latino groups. I argue that explanations of identity salience in Latino political behavior focus exclusively on the experiences of Mexican Americans, raising the issue of generalizability to other national origin groups. In a laboratory experiment in New York City, I test the effects of explicit and implicit pan-immigrant and nationality-based cues on Latino candidate support. The results illustrate significant differences in Latino receptivity to American immigration debates. Given the overt and implied focus of Mexican immigrants in elite immigration discourse, nationality-based cues about Mexican immigration were not effective in mobilizing collective identity in the voting decisions of non-Mexican groups. Only explicit cues to Latino identity successfully activated panethnic group interests. These findings not only suggest that identity activation works differently for non-Mexican Latino groups in the context of immigration threat, but it also challenges the notion of a one size fits all political strategy in Latino mobilization.

Ethnic cues: the role of shared ethnicity in Latino political participation

Does placing a Latino candidate on the ticket mobilize Latino voters? Until recently, much of the research on political participation has resisted the idea that Latino voters rely on ethnic cues. The discussion has become increasingly salient as political strategists have learned to define individual voting blocs and mobilize them in support of a candidate. Nourished by the debate over immigration, the search for the Latino voter has now blossomed into a national political obsession. Against this background, Matt Barreto assays the influence of ethnic identification on Latinos' voting behavior. Barreto asks whether the presence of co-ethnic candidates actually does mobilize Latino voters in support of these candidates. His analysis of in-depth candidate interviews, public opinion surveys, official election results, and statistics finds that it does. He goes on to describe the dynamic of voting in the Latino community and sharpens our appreciation of how ethnic considerations influence the electoral choices of Americans more generally. In a time of intensely focused campaign appeals, Barreto's work has much to tell us about the mechanics of public opinion and the role of race and ethnicity in voting behavior.

Superintendents' Assessment of Hispanic, Latino, and White Job Candidates for a High School Principalship: Effects of Cultural Subdivisions and Student Characteristics

Credentials of hypothetical standing principal candidates are assessed in a 3X2 completely crossed factorial design varying diversity of applicants (Hispanic, Latino, or White) and diversity of students (low vs. high Hispanic enrollments). Screening decisions of superintendents are assessed according to job-related criteria, probability of an interview invitation, and a likely initial salary offer and are analyzed by a stepdown ANOVA. Results indicate screening decisions of superintendents are influenced by characteristics of applicants as well as of students. Equally qualified applicants are perceived as being unequally qualified when screening decisions are viewed from a multidimensional theoretical framework and when screening is analyzed as a process rather than as an event.