Not the usual story: the effect of candidate supply on models of Latino descriptive representation

Abstract

Most of the literature on descriptive representation focuses on voters and the choices they make during an election. Missing from this scholarship, however, is a more complete picture of when and where minority candidates are on the ballot. In this study, we focus on the context in which Latinos are on the ballot in state legislative elections, and the relationship between winning and district composition. We present results using a unique data-set from the 2012 general elections that allows us to compare and contrast empirical analyses and predictions with and without the censoring effect of Latino candidate supply. The findings challenge the traditional role of majority–minority districts, and show quite decisively that descriptive representation is not only a demand problem, as it has been understood for the last few decades, but also a problem of minority candidate supply.