Large-scale Programs Research Articles

Historical pesticide applications for the treatment of eastern spruce budworm infestations in New Brunswick.

Pesticides have been used in Canada since 1945 as part of large-scale aerial spray applications to control insect pests on forested lands. Some of the pesticides used historically were efficacious, nonselective, persistent, and have led to serious impacts on the environment. A well known, and extensively documented example is the large-scale aerial spray programs in New Brunswick, Canada. From 1952 to 1993, 97% of the 6.2 million ha of the forested lands of New Brunswick were treated with at least one application of one insecticide, the majority of which were applied to control outbreaks of eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana). The most well known insecticide was dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), applied from 1952 to 1968, which still persists in treated soils and adjacent water bodies, and caused the individual and cumulative ecosystem effects that can still be measured today. The insecticides that replaced DDT were nonpersistent and unlikely to be found today. However, during the years of application some of the insecticides were likely to have impacted local ecosystems to some degree. To aid future studies on the efficacy and environmental impact of these insecticides we created a digital spatial data set of known pesticide application in New Brunswick forestry from 1952 to 1993. The data set includes active ingredient, formulation, application rate, tank mix, aircraft type, and other ancillary information. The current version of the data is available on the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources and Energy Development, GIS Open Data Page and in the supplemental material. Use of the data set for academic and educational purposes is encouraged, provided that both this data paper and the data source are properly cited; the Government of New Brunswick should be acknowledged as the data source (Open Government License http://www.snb.ca/e/2000/data-E.html).

Household-Level Coverage of Iron-Biofortified Beans in the Northern Province of Rwanda

BackgroundBiofortification, the process of enhancing the micronutrient content of staple crops, is a nutrition-sensitive agricultural intervention with the potential to increase micronutrient intakes and improve health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations. Although data are available on the number of farming households that grow biofortified crops, information on the coverage of biofortified foods in the general population is limited. Such information is critical to assess the performance of biofortification programs and guide decisions related to program implementation while ascertaining progress toward achieving expected impacts. ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the household coverage of iron-biofortified beans (IBBs) in rural areas of the Northern Province of Rwanda. MethodsWe applied methods previously used to assess coverage in large-scale food fortification programs to develop coverage indicators for IBBs. These indicators were 1) consumption of beans in any form; 2) awareness of IBBs; 3) availability of IBBs; 4) consumption of IBBs (ever); and 5) consumption of IBBs (current). ResultsOf the 535 households surveyed, 98% consumed beans in any form and 79% were aware of IBBs. Among the 321 households that provided bean samples, only 40% of the samples were biofortified (as determined by a breeding specialist) and only 21% of respondents were able to correctly identify IBBs. Although 52% of households reported to be ever consuming biofortified beans, only 10% of households were currently consuming these beans. ConclusionsDespite relatively high awareness of IBBs among surveyed households, a few households currently consume IBBs, highlighting the need to explore strategies to promote consumption. More research is also required to investigate factors hindering the consumption of IBBs.

Influence of the Suchana intervention on exclusive breastfeeding and stunting among children aged under 6 months in the Sylhet region of Bangladesh.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) provides significant health benefits to children. However, mothers may find it difficult to continue EBF for 6 months. The present analysis aimed to examine the influence of the Suchana intervention-a large-scale programme implemented with the aim of improving the health and nutritional status of mothers and children from poor households in the Sylhet region of Bangladesh-on EBF and stunting among children under 6 months. Baseline and endline data were obtained from the Suchana evaluation. EBF was defined as an infant (<6 months) only receiving breast milk in the previous 24 h. Childhood stunting was defined as a length-for-age z-score of less than -2 among children of the same age. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess the associations of the Suchana intervention with EBF and stunting. EBF prevalence improved from 64% at baseline to 85% at the endline in the intervention area, with the intervention group having 2.25 times higher odds of EBF compared to the control group. Stunting prevalence reduced from 28% at baseline to 24% at the endline in the intervention group, but after controlling for covariates, the association between stunting and the intervention was not significant. However, the interaction analysis showed significantly lower stunting prevalence among EBF children in both intervention and control areas. The Suchana intervention had a positive impact on the EBF practice of rural children in a vulnerable region of Bangladesh, and EBF was identified as a significant factor associated with stunting. The findings suggest that the continuation of the EBF intervention has the potential to have an impact on reducing stunting in the region, highlighting the importance of promoting EBF to improve child health and development.

Competency on transgender health issues among medical professionals before and after the medical conference on transgender physiology

Introduction and Aim: Transgender healthcare has emerged as an area of medicine that has been in the blind spot of most physicians for the last century. Medical professionals in India have been equally unaware of the health needs of the transgender community. The aim of the present study was to assess the competency and awareness regarding transgender health and related issues among medical professionals. Methodology: A questionnaire was framed to assess awareness on social and medical issues faced by the transgender community containing 40 questions in yes or no format. 126 doctors filled the questionnaires and 58 of the respondents later attended a conference on Transgender health. Similar questionnaire was used to assess the improvement in knowledge after the conference. Results: The result of the questionnaire score was analysed in percentage. The average percentage score of the initial 126 respondents was 51.58. Pre-conference percentage score was 51.33 and the post-conference was 61.67 among the 58 conference attendees, showing a significant increase in awareness after being exposed to an educational session. Conclusion: There is a need for large-scale awareness programs and the implementation of trans-inclusive medical curriculum to improve the competency of medical professionals.

Reconstruction of the Real Estate the Territorial Communities in the Digital Space of Anti-Crisis Management

"It has been proven that the artificial environment of the economic system of territorial communities for the reconstruction of industrial facilities after their damage must be recreated with the help of anti-crisis management with the use of BI-technologies in business processes. Digital tools and platforms of anticrisis management of territorial communities are grouped under projects of reconstruction of production facilities. The Information Modeling Strategy of Anti-Crisis Management of Territorial Communities for Targeted Investment of Real Estate Reconstruction Projects is presented. The field of information modelling of anti-crisis management based on the description of business processes supported by investments has been studied. The national investment program of projects for the reconstruction of production facilities of Ukraine and the implementation of a large-scale energy efficiency program in the country in the postwar period is presented. Planned indicators of the riskiness of investing funds for the reconstruction of industrial facilities of territorial communities located of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, whose modernization is planned to be started by intermediaries of the Western region of Ukraine in the post-war period, are presented. The efficiency of the method of agglomerative hierarchical clustering for territorial communities is substantiated that will have a mixed type of introduction of BI-technologies in the anticrisis management of territorial communities aimed at serving the needs of consumers in the post-war period. Leader clusters have been determined by the effectiveness of using digital tools of CRM-systems and ERP-systems in anti-crisis management of territorial communities."

Displaced but happy? Making sense of shantytown dwellers’ divergent views and experiences of resettlement in Casablanca

While researchers have observed a global rise in displacement, many countries in the Global South have set up large-scale housing programmes, aiming to ensure access for all to ‘affordable’ and ‘adequate’ housing. For residents of Casablanca’s shantytowns, this has created a paradoxical situation—enhanced displacement threats and hopes to be soon moving into a higher-quality home. The situation challenges common conceptualisations of displacement seeing it as a merely negative, forced moving. Therefore, this paper opens up the debate on how to account for heterogeneous or even contradictory experiences of displacement. Through the example of shantytown resettlement in Casablanca, it calls for more people-centred empirical research that explicitly acknowledges internal neighbourhood diversity and difference. Promising approaches may focus on displaceability, the analysis of people’s residential trajectories, and heterogeneity within post-displacement perspectives.

A Nonconvex Regularization Scheme for the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming Algorithm

We propose a new nonconvex regularization scheme to improve the performance of the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) algorithm for solving large-scale multistage stochastic programs. Specifically, we use a class of nonconvex regularization functions, namely folded concave penalty functions, to improve solution quality and the convergence rate of the SDDP procedure. We develop a strategy based on mixed-integer programming to guarantee global optimality of the nonconvex regularization problem. Moreover, we establish provable convergence guarantees for our customized SDDP algorithm. The benefits of our regularization scheme are demonstrated by solving large-scale instances of two multistage stochastic optimization problems. History: Pascal Van Hentenryck, Area Editor for Computational Modeling: Methods &amp; Analysis. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2021.0255 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2021.0255 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

The influence of the propensity of small-firm managers to enroll in training programs on subsequent training outcome

PurposeThis study examines the relationship between small-firm managers' propensity to participate in a growth-oriented training program and their subsequent program outcome in terms of strategic reorientation. From a policy perspective, this relates to the important question of what benefit would come from recruiting managers who are normally not easily recruitable for training programs.Design/methodology/approachA control group design including pre- and post-training surveys is used to assess the effects of a large-scale management training program. Accounting for selection bias, the difference-in-difference method, together with propensity score matching, was applied to assess average program effects. The matching-smoothing method was used to assess heterogeneity in program effects associated with participation propensity.FindingsOverall, program participation associated positively with change in strategic orientations. This effect was especially pronounced for managers with either low or medium to high inclinations for program enrollment, while diminishing in the modest to medium range.Practical implicationsThe findings have important practical implications for selection of target groups and recruitment strategies in relation to small-firm management training programs. From the results, recruitment strategies may effectively include managers with either high or low participation propensities, rather than aiming to “fill up” with managers with moderately low participation propensity.Originality/valueSeveral extant studies have examined average treatment effects from small-firm training programs. Yet there has been a lack of examination of the extent to which participation propensity modifies the effect of training on outcomes. This study brings new knowledge of the direction and magnitude of such heterogeneous training effects.

Attracting adolescents to become doctors and nurses: differential importance of personal and environmental factors in 61 economies

BackgroundDoctors and nurses play a fundamental role in maintaining global health systems and achieving universal health care coverage. However, significant shortages persist, and little is known about the popularity of these careers among young people in various economies or the relative impact of personal inputs and contextual factors.MethodsUsing data from the large-scale Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018, we showed the recent distribution of adolescents' medical (doctor) and nursing career expectations in 61 economies. With multilevel logistic and hierarchical linear regression, we examined the relative importance of economic indicators, health work conditions, and personal background factors in affecting adolescents' health career expectations.ResultsApproximately 11% of adolescents expected to be doctors in each economy, while only 2% expected to be nurses. Adolescents were attracted to health professions mainly by system-level favourable conditions (accounting for 1/3 variance), including (a) government health expenditure beyond that expected gross domestic product (GDP); (b) a safe working environment for doctors in wealthy nations; and (c) high salaries for nurses in less-developed economies. In contrast, adolescents' background (gender, social status, and academic ability) was less influential, explaining only 10% of the differences.ConclusionsIn the technological and digital era, high-ability students are equally competitive for emerging careers other than doctors and nurses. In developing countries, a high salary package and societal respect are enough to attract adolescents to nursing careers. In contrast, for developed countries, extra expenditures beyond regular GDP allocation and a safe work environment are crucial in attracting adolescents to become doctors. Salary may effectively attract international-trained doctors and nurses, but the work environment will likely emerge as an essential factor in retaining migrants in their positions.Trial registration number: No human participants were involved in this study.

PROSPECTIVE STUDY ON PHOTOPLETYSMOGRAPHIC AND ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAPHIC SIGNALS FOR THE MONITORING OF CANDIDATES TO ELECTRICAL CARDIOVERSION OF ATRIAL ARRHYTHMIAS (PPEEG-AF PILOT STUDY)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia, and its incidence is constantly increasing. It is associated with higher stroke risk and the presence of sleep disorders and dementia. The choice between rhythm and rate control in AF patients remains a debated topic, and it should be tailored on specific patient characteristics. In specific situations, electrical cardioversion (ECV) for rhythm control represents the preferred choice; in particular, in patients affected by cardiopathy and/or heart failure. Because of relevant AF social costs, there is a growing interest in developing new devices for large-scale screening and monitoring programs in patients affected or at risk of AF, to reduce the incidence of disabling events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the use of a set-up for multi-parametric monitoring of candidates to AF ECV. In particular, new technologies were exploited for photoplethysmographic (PPG) and electroencephalographic (EEG) signal registration, integrated with clinical and instrumental data. We analyzed the effect of AF ECV on heart rate variability (HRV) and vascular age parameters derived from PPG signals registered with Empatica (CE 1876/MDD 93/42/EEC; Empatica S.r.l, Milan, Italy), and on EEG sleep pattern registered with Neurosteer (IEC 60601-1-2; Neurosteer Inc., Herzliya, Israel). 24 patients were enrolled, 75% males, mean age [Formula: see text] years. HRV analyses considering time frames registered before and after ECV showed a significant reduction of most variables ([Formula: see text]0.001), only LF/HF ratio did not differ significantly. Considering HRV parameters, comparisons between PPG signals registered during day or night before and after ECV showed a significant difference in SD1/SD2 ratio (p=0.035) and HF ([Formula: see text]). Regarding vascular age parameters, a significant reduction was observed in both turning point ratio (TPR) and a wave after ECV ([Formula: see text]). Moreover, we observed that patients with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) ≤28 presented higher values of TPR ([Formula: see text] versus [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism, vascular disease, age, sex category) ([Formula: see text] versus [Formula: see text], p=0.022). Considering sleep patterns, a tendency to higher coherence was observed in registrations acquired during AF than in presence of sinus rhythm, or considering signals registered before and after ECV for each patient. In conclusion, the use of this new setup of multiparametric monitoring of candidates to ECV showed significant modifications on vascular age parameters derived from PPG signals measured before and after ECV. Moreover, a possible AF effect on sleep pattern registered with Neurosteer was noticed, but more data are necessary to confirm these preliminary results.

135 The Role of Passive Sampling in Environmental Monitoring – Theory &amp; Recent Advancements

Abstract Passive sampling is an established technique in the monitoring and characterisation of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Employed across various fields such as personal exposure monitoring, large-scale environmental studies and indoor air monitoring. Passive sampling provides a cheap, convenient and reliable method of characterising a range of VOCs across several samples in large-scale air monitoring programmes. Passive sampling possesses several favourable qualities to alternative methods, such as no pump requirements and a non-invasive design. Further to this, early sorbent-based passive samplers were required to undergo solvent extraction as a preparation step before analysis. The solvent extraction limited air-speed effects at the surface of the badge, preventing the stable conditions required for passive sampling. Recent developments allow analytes to desorb from the sampler via thermal desorption (TD), improving sensitivity and accuracy that were unachievable through earlier sorbent-based sampling devices. Within this presentation I will detail the latest TD-compatible passive samplers, exploring axial and radial sampling technologies and how these technologies are advancing environmental monitoring.

Long-term liquidity effects of large-scale asset purchase programs: Evidence from the euro covered bond market

This study aims to improve the knowledge around extensive asset purchase programs and their impact on market liquidity. It documents that such programs can dampen liquidity. The analysis uses fixed-effects regressions and a unique dataset of global euro-denominated covered bonds, which quantitative easing has affected to a larger extent than other markets. While the start of the central bank purchases amplifies liquidity for several weeks, liquidity declines after half a year. The drop relates to the central bank’s bond inventory. It is partly mitigated by a reduction in buying, but liquidity does not fully recover. The contemporaneous flow effect of purchase program buying is initially positive, but becomes negative when liquidity deteriorates. These findings help designing policy and understanding behavioral liquidity effects.

A species-level trait dataset of bats in Europe and beyond

Knowledge of species’ functional traits is essential for understanding biodiversity patterns, predicting the impacts of global environmental changes, and assessing the efficiency of conservation measures. Bats are major components of mammalian diversity and occupy a variety of ecological niches and geographic distributions. However, an extensive compilation of their functional traits and ecological attributes is still missing. Here we present EuroBaTrait 1.0, the most comprehensive and up-to-date trait dataset covering 47 European bat species. The dataset includes data on 118 traits including genetic composition, physiology, morphology, acoustic signature, climatic associations, foraging habitat, roost type, diet, spatial behaviour, life history, pathogens, phenology, and distribution. We compiled the bat trait data obtained from three main sources: (i) a systematic literature and dataset search, (ii) unpublished data from European bat experts, and (iii) observations from large-scale monitoring programs. EuroBaTrait is designed to provide an important data source for comparative and trait-based analyses at the species or community level. The dataset also exposes knowledge gaps in species, geographic and trait coverage, highlighting priorities for future data collection.

Modeling and optimization of carbon-negative NGCC plant enabled by modular direct air capture

Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants are the most prevalent source of electricity in the United States and are expected to continue playing a key role in the future energy market. However, they are also one of the main sources of CO2 emissions in the power market. Recently, the authors proposed a retrofit design for an existing NGCC to allow power generation with negative CO2 emissions by utilizing both post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) and direct air capture (DAC). The DAC unit captures CO2 directly from the atmosphere using low-grade heat from the NGCC via a novel heat integration scheme. The heat integration scheme and modular DAC design introduce significant flexibility, allowing the system to focus on either power generation or CO2 capture in response to electricity price changes. However, this creates a complex trade-off between the cost of DAC capacity and the enhanced operational flexibility it provides. In this work, we model the proposed retrofit systematically and co-optimize the design and operation of the system for an entire year under different electricity price signals and CO2 prices. The DAC operations are modeled with a novel formulation to account for the sorbent dynamics in its temperature swing cycles. The solutions for the resulting large-scale mixed-integer linear program show that a large DAC unit is preferred in most situations. The extra flexibility leads to longer dispatch time and higher profits compared with the base NGCC.

Enabling large-scale quantum path integral molecular dynamics simulations through the integration of Dcdftbmd and i-PI codes.

A large-scale quantum chemical calculation program, Dcdftbmd, was integrated with a Python-based advanced atomistic simulation program, i-PI. The implementation of a client-server model enabled hierarchical parallelization with respect to replicas and force evaluations. The established framework demonstrated that quantum path integral molecular dynamics simulations can be executed with high efficiency for systems consisting of a few tens of replicas and containing thousands of atoms. The application of the framework to bulk water systems, with and without an excess proton, demonstrated that nuclear quantum effects are significant for intra- and inter-molecular structural properties, including oxygen-hydrogen bond distance and radial distribution function around the hydrated excess proton.

Характеристика развития армяно-иранских экономических отношений после Арцахской войны 2020 года / Features of the Development of Armenian-Iranian Relations after the Second Artsakh War

Neighboring countries Armenia and Iran considered each other as partners and friends, after Armenia declared its independence. In 1992, Iran, with a balanced approach to the Karabakh conflict and the First Artsakh War, created new prospects for the development of bilateral relations for both countries. After the end of the First Artsakh War and the victory of the Armenian side, Armenia and Iran started establishing and strengthening multilateral relations, striving to expand economic cooperation. Economic relations between Iran and Armenia have expanded significantly over the past three decades, and the main thing for Armenia in bilateral relations was Iran's balanced approach to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Tehran has been in serious international isolation for several years, which has been exacerbated in recent years due to the maximum pressure policy of the United States. In this situation, Iran is particularly interested in finding ways to overcome these restrictions. Armenia, which is under partial blockade, is one such option. The need to implement the project of creating an international transport and logistics corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Black Sea, the construction of the North-South highway has been discussed for at least 15 years, and the recent increase in Iran's interest in the implementation has a number of reasons. It seems that Tehran's latest initiatives towards their implementation are largely determined by the current regional geopolitical shifts. In particular, with the emergence of projects to unblock regional communications as a result of the 44-day war. And, the trend towards de facto cessation of Western sanctions policy against Iran is another factor that allows Iran to begin to respond significantly to recent regional transformations. First of all, due to the fact that the absence of sanctions will allow Tehran to initiate new, rather large-scale programs. It is also clear that all these relevant programs have always been relevant for both Iran and Armenia. But they have not been implemented yet due to a number of circumstances. In this light, the active opposition to communication projects by both Azerbaijan and Turkey has not disappeared even today. And, naturally, in this regard, one can predict a number of steps by Ankara and Baku to reduce the international attractiveness and, accordingly, the degree of relevance of these projects, with the ultimate goal of preventing their financing by large international donors. Against this background, the most important problem of Yerevan seems to be the demonstration of an extreme level of consistency in the direction of the implementation of these projects, despite the Turkish and Azerbaijani opposition.

Need for a Dedicated Ophthalmic Malignancy Clinico-Biological Biobank: The Nice Ocular MAlignancy (NOMA) Biobank

Ophthalmic malignancies include various rare neoplasms involving the conjunctiva, the uvea, or the periocular area. These tumors are characterized by their scarcity as well as their histological, and sometimes genetic, diversity. Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary intraocular malignancy. UM raises three main challenges highlighting the specificity of ophthalmic malignancies. First, UM is a very rare malignancy with an estimated incidence of 6 cases per million inhabitants. Second, tissue biopsy is not routinely recommended due to the risk of extraocular dissemination. Third, UM is an aggressive cancer because it is estimated that about 50% of patients will experience metastatic spread without any curative treatment available at this stage. These challenges better explain the two main objectives in the creation of a dedicated UM biobank. First, collecting UM samples is essential due to tissue scarcity. Second, large-scale translational research programs based on stored human samples will help to better determine UM pathogenesis with the aim of identifying new biomarkers, allowing for early diagnosis and new targeted treatment modalities. Other periocular malignancies, such as conjunctival melanomas or orbital malignancies, also raise specific concerns. In this context, the number of biobanks worldwide dedicated to ocular malignancies is very limited. The aims of this article were (i) to describe the specific challenges raised by a dedicated ocular malignancy biobank, (ii) to report our experience in setting up such a biobank, and (iii) to discuss future perspectives in this field.

Class Trips beyond Borders: Reimagining the Nation through State-Sponsored Heritage Tourism

AbstractThe article explores how cross-border heritage tourism is promoted in public schools to reimagine Hungary as an ethnically homogeneous nation by incorporating ethnic kin communities that live in neighboring countries. Cross-border heritage tourism has long served to establish strong ties to ethnic diaspora communities that live beyond the territorial borders of the nation-state. National borders in Central and Eastern Europe were repeatedly redrawn across ethnic groups over the twentieth century. Heritage tourism remains a key cultural and economic practice that symbolically questions current national borders and aims to increase the viability of ethnic enclave economies in countries where the given ethnic group is a minority. The article focuses on a large-scale student travel program that was launched by the Hungarian government in 2010, the year that marked the start of a brisk populist turn in Hungarian politics. The program provides funding to public school students for organized class trips to areas of neighboring countries (Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, and Ukraine) that belonged to the Hungarian state before World War I. It shows how the Hungarian government mobilizes the public education system to foster a narrow and exclusionary ethnic understanding of cultural membership by selectively overemphasizing Hungarian heritage in regions that have had multi-ethnic, multi-religious, and multicultural histories for centuries. This project extends research on identity-based heritage tourism to show how it has become an integral part of the propaganda toolkit of populist governments.

Girls’ Education at Scale

Abstract Many educational interventions boost outcomes for girls in settings where girls face educational disadvantages, but which of those interventions are proven to function effectively at large scale? In contrast to earlier reviews, this review focuses on large-scale programs and policies—those that reach at least 10,000 students—and on final school outcomes such as completion and student learning rather than intermediate school outcomes such as enrollment and attendance. Programs and policies that have boosted school completion or learning at scale across multiple countries include school fee elimination, school meals, making schools more physically accessible, and improving the quality of pedagogy. Other interventions, such as providing better sanitation facilities or safe spaces for girls, show promising results but either have limited evidence across settings or focus on intermediate educational outcomes (such as enrollment) or post-educational outcomes (such as income earning) in their evaluations. These and other areas with limited or no evidence demonstrate many opportunities for education leaders, partners, and researchers to continue innovating and testing programs at scale. We discuss three considerations for incorporating evidence-based solutions into local education policies—constraints to girls’ education, potential solutions, and program costs—as well as lessons for scaling programs effectively.

Long term changes in aquaculture influence migration, regional abundance, and distribution of an avian species.

Agricultural development has been causing changes to the environment and the abundance and distribution of avian species. Agriculture is dynamic with changes in products occurring at large scales over relatively short time periods. The catfish aquaculture industry is one such agriculture industry that has undergone dramatic changes over the last 25 years. The double-crested cormorant (Nannopterum auritum) is a piscivorous bird that has an extensive history with the aquaculture industry of Mississippi due to its depredation of cultured catfish. A large-scale monitoring program began in 1989 to estimate the abundance and location of cormorants at every known roost in the primary catfish producing region of the state, regionally known as the Delta. We used this data set to address hypotheses pertaining to cormorant ecology within the Delta over time, particularly in relation to aquaculture. We found that, although the Midwest breeding population of cormorants has been increasing, the abundance of cormorants wintering in the Delta has been decreasing, closely following the decline of aquaculture, suggesting aquaculture area is the primary reason for cormorant inhabitation of the region. We also modeled cormorant presence and abundance at all roost sites to determine what factors most influenced cormorant distribution. Aquaculture area around roosts was a significant predictor of both cormorant presence and abundance. However, the influence of aquaculture area was seasonally dependent, with greater positive influences occurring prior to migration. Lastly, we found peak cormorant abundance in the Delta is occurring 2.14 days earlier each year, which may be indicative of changes to migration phenology. Information gained using this large dataset aids in cormorant damage mitigation and to further our understanding of cormorant ecology. Data indicate changes in agriculture, and potentially climate change, can influence phenology, distribution, and abundance of avian species at large geographic scales.